From adeb2a8cb74d99eb063d93dfaa609ca557b5ccf1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vahid Ahmadi Date: Wed, 27 May 2026 12:32:04 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/4] Add Warm Home Discount planning doc (#502) #502 notes that the WHD has criteria varying by energy company and isn't specified ahead of time. Persist the modelling plan in-repo so the actual complexity is documented (and a defensible v1 scope is agreed before any code goes in). The page covers: - the two-group structure (auto Core Group 1 keyed on Pension Credit Guarantee Credit, EPC-based Core Group 2 in England with the 2022-23 reform under SI 2022/687, application-based Core 2 in Scotland and Wales under SI 2022/690), - the three-phase implementation route: Core 1 (~1m households, the cleanest target) first, then EPC-keyed Core 2 in England with the EPC + qualifying-benefit logic, then Scotland/Wales application- based with a stochastic would_claim flag, - an alternative v1 scope ("Core 1 only, document Core 2 as under-imputed") that captures the most policy-relevant slice at minimal modelling cost, - data needs (Ofgem annual WHD reports, DWP Pension Credit caseload, VOA/ONS EPC distribution for Phase 2), - open questions on scheme-year vs simulation-year semantics and whether Core 1 needs a take-up gate (recommendation: no). --- changelog.d/502.md | 1 + .../gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md | 129 ++++++++++++++++++ 2 files changed, 130 insertions(+) create mode 100644 changelog.d/502.md create mode 100644 docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md diff --git a/changelog.d/502.md b/changelog.d/502.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..21fbb9dca2 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/502.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Add a Warm Home Discount planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md` covering the two-group structure (auto Core Group 1 keyed on Pension Credit Guarantee Credit, EPC-based Core Group 2 in England, application-based Core 2 in Scotland/Wales), the devolved variants, and a three-phase implementation route that recommends modelling only Core Group 1 in v1 as the cleanest defensible scope. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..c75423beab --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md @@ -0,0 +1,129 @@ +# Warm Home Discount (planned) + +```{warning} +**Not yet modelled.** The Warm Home Discount (WHD) is an Ofgem-administered +scheme that pays a one-off rebate of £150 per qualifying household per +winter, off their domestic electricity bill. PolicyEngine UK doesn't +currently model it. This page captures the proposed scope, tracked +under [#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502). +``` + +## Why modelling WHD is harder than it looks + +The Warm Home Discount has two components, with different eligibility +rules: + +- **Core Group 1**: people in receipt of the **Guarantee Credit element + of Pension Credit**. This group is identified automatically by DWP + data-matching and the rebate is applied to their electricity bill + without an application. Eligibility for this group is a clean, + centrally-defined rule and is straightforwardly modellable from the + existing PolicyEngine variables (`pension_credit`). +- **Core Group 2** ("Broader Group" until 2022-23): people whose home is + **assessed as having a high energy cost** and who are on certain + qualifying means-tested benefits (UC, IS, JSA-IB, ESA-IR, HB, CTC, WTC + in particular bands). The high-energy-cost assessment uses an + Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) plus VOA property data; the + qualifying-benefit list shifted in England in 2022-23 ([source][gov-2022]). + +The combination of (a) the EPC-based property assessment, (b) different +schemes in England, Scotland, and Wales, and (c) the absence of a +public point-in-time eligibility register makes this harder to model +than typical means-tested benefits. + +## Devolved variants + +| Nation | Core 1 (PC Guarantee Credit) | Core 2 ("Broader Group") | +|--------|-------------------------------|---------------------------| +| England | yes — auto, £150 | yes — EPC-based property assessment + qualifying benefits | +| Scotland | yes — auto, £150 | by **application** through energy suppliers; criteria vary year to year | +| Wales | yes — auto, £150 | by **application** through energy suppliers; criteria vary year to year | + +Scotland and Wales did not adopt the 2022 England reform that swapped +the application-based Broader Group for the EPC-based Core 2; instead +both retain the application model. + +## Proposed scope + +### Phase 1 — Core Group 1 only + +The single cleanest WHD modelling target: payment to any household +with positive `pension_credit_guarantee_credit` in the winter season. +~1 million households per year by DWP outturn (out of ~3 million WHD +recipients). + +- New parameter `gov.ofgem.warm_home_discount.core_group_1.amount` + (£150 since winter 2022-23, £140 before). +- New variable `warm_home_discount_core_1` (Household, YEAR) = + `amount` if any benunit member has positive Pension Credit Guarantee + Credit, else 0. +- Roll into a `warm_home_discount` umbrella variable; Phase 2 adds the + Core Group 2 leg. + +### Phase 2 — Core Group 2 (England) + +Requires: + +- Adding EPC band as a household input variable (or imputing it from + property age/type via a `policyengine-uk-data` second-stage QRF). +- Encoding the qualifying-benefit list per scheme year (the list + changed in winter 2022-23). +- Property-cost-score parameters from Ofgem's annual scheme rules. + +This is the bulk of the work. + +### Phase 3 — Scotland and Wales + +Application-based Core 2 isn't modellable from administrative +eligibility rules alone. The reasonable approximation is a take-up rate +applied to the same qualifying-benefit set: + +- A `would_claim_warm_home_discount_scotland` / `_wales` stochastic + flag in `policyengine-uk-data` calibrated against Ofgem-published + Scottish/Welsh recipient counts. + +## Alternative: model as a Core 1-only umbrella + +Given the complexity of Phase 2 and the relatively modest fiscal +weight of WHD (~£400m/year on Core 1 across the UK), a defensible v1 +is to model **only** Core Group 1 and document Core Group 2 as +under-imputed. That captures the most policy-relevant slice (Pension +Credit interaction, eligibility through the means-tested-benefit +ladder) at minimal modelling cost. + +Reform analysis using PolicyEngine to "expand WHD to all UC +households" or similar would still work with Phase 1 alone by setting +a Core-1-equivalent uplift on the WHD parameter. + +## Data needs + +- **Ofgem WHD statistics**: + [Warm Home Discount Scheme: annual reports](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/warm-home-discount-annual-reports) + give per-scheme-year recipient counts and total spend by group. +- **DWP Pension Credit caseload** — already used for Pension Credit + calibration; no new data work needed for Phase 1. +- **EPC distribution by property type** for Phase 2 — VOA + ONS data + exist but need cross-walking to FRS rows. + +## Open questions + +- The WHD scheme year runs October to March; PolicyEngine UK + variables are year-level. Should the variable represent the rebate + paid during the simulation year (Oct-Mar payments), or the rebate + accrued during the simulation year (Mar-Oct accrual window)? UC and + Pension Credit conventions suggest the former. +- The auto-payment for Core Group 1 means the rebate is functionally + irreversible — it doesn't depend on the household applying. Does the + model need a `would_claim_warm_home_discount` flag at all for Core 1, + or should it just be `defined_for = "has_pension_credit_guarantee_credit"`? + Recommendation: skip the take-up gate for Core 1. + +## References + +- [Warm Home Discount Scheme: official guidance](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme). +- [Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/687)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/687/contents) — the 2022-23 reform that introduced the EPC-based England Core Group 2. +- [Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/690)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/690/contents) — devolved variant. +- Ofgem, [Warm Home Discount Scheme: annual reports][gov-2022]. +- Issue: [#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502). + +[gov-2022]: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/warm-home-discount-annual-reports From e0f28f2389fb9dc7c84c58bfdaa66941e64d4e96 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Thu, 8 Oct 2026 15:52:22 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 2/4] Update the Warm Home Discount plan for the current scheme Fix the legislation (SI 2022/772 covers England and Wales; Scotland is SI 2022/1073; SI 2026/389 runs to 2031), record that the high-cost-to-heat test was removed from winter 2025-26 so England and Wales eligibility is benefit receipt alone, set out the Scottish core and broader groups for 2026-27, and simplify the phases accordingly. Type the changelog fragment. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/502.added.md | 1 + changelog.d/502.md | 1 - .../gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md | 203 +++++++++--------- 3 files changed, 103 insertions(+), 102 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/502.added.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/502.md diff --git a/changelog.d/502.added.md b/changelog.d/502.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..6f0751e936 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/502.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Added a plan for modelling the Warm Home Discount (#502) at `docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md`, reflecting the benefit-based eligibility in England and Wales from winter 2025-26 and the separate Scottish scheme. diff --git a/changelog.d/502.md b/changelog.d/502.md deleted file mode 100644 index 21fbb9dca2..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/502.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -- Add a Warm Home Discount planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md` covering the two-group structure (auto Core Group 1 keyed on Pension Credit Guarantee Credit, EPC-based Core Group 2 in England, application-based Core 2 in Scotland/Wales), the devolved variants, and a three-phase implementation route that recommends modelling only Core Group 1 in v1 as the cleanest defensible scope. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md index c75423beab..69eb12e641 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md @@ -1,129 +1,130 @@ # Warm Home Discount (planned) ```{warning} -**Not yet modelled.** The Warm Home Discount (WHD) is an Ofgem-administered -scheme that pays a one-off rebate of £150 per qualifying household per -winter, off their domestic electricity bill. PolicyEngine UK doesn't -currently model it. This page captures the proposed scope, tracked -under [#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502). +**Not yet modelled.** The Warm Home Discount (WHD) is a £150 rebate off +a household's electricity bill each winter, paid by energy suppliers +under schemes that Ofgem administers. PolicyEngine UK doesn't model it. +This page sets out the proposed scope, tracked in +[#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502). +Updated October 2026: in England and Wales eligibility is now based on +benefit receipt alone, which makes the scheme much easier to model than +when this page was first drafted. ``` -## Why modelling WHD is harder than it looks - -The Warm Home Discount has two components, with different eligibility -rules: - -- **Core Group 1**: people in receipt of the **Guarantee Credit element - of Pension Credit**. This group is identified automatically by DWP - data-matching and the rebate is applied to their electricity bill - without an application. Eligibility for this group is a clean, - centrally-defined rule and is straightforwardly modellable from the - existing PolicyEngine variables (`pension_credit`). -- **Core Group 2** ("Broader Group" until 2022-23): people whose home is - **assessed as having a high energy cost** and who are on certain - qualifying means-tested benefits (UC, IS, JSA-IB, ESA-IR, HB, CTC, WTC - in particular bands). The high-energy-cost assessment uses an - Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) plus VOA property data; the - qualifying-benefit list shifted in England in 2022-23 ([source][gov-2022]). - -The combination of (a) the EPC-based property assessment, (b) different -schemes in England, Scotland, and Wales, and (c) the absence of a -public point-in-time eligibility register makes this harder to model -than typical means-tested benefits. - -## Devolved variants - -| Nation | Core 1 (PC Guarantee Credit) | Core 2 ("Broader Group") | -|--------|-------------------------------|---------------------------| -| England | yes — auto, £150 | yes — EPC-based property assessment + qualifying benefits | -| Scotland | yes — auto, £150 | by **application** through energy suppliers; criteria vary year to year | -| Wales | yes — auto, £150 | by **application** through energy suppliers; criteria vary year to year | - -Scotland and Wales did not adopt the 2022 England reform that swapped -the application-based Broader Group for the EPC-based Core 2; instead -both retain the application model. +## The scheme now -## Proposed scope +### England and Wales + +[The Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2026](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/389/contents) +(SI 2026/389) continue the scheme from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031. +They replace the +[2022 Regulations](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/772/contents) +(SI 2022/772), which applied to both England and Wales. + +Under the 2022 Regulations, the means-tested group had to pass a +"high cost to heat" test based on property data. For winter 2025-26 +that test was removed, so every household on a qualifying means-tested +benefit got the rebate: around 6 million households in Great Britain, +2.7 million more than the year before +([government response, June 2025](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf)). -### Phase 1 — Core Group 1 only +For winter 2026-27, GOV.UK +([eligibility in England and Wales](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/if-you-live-in-england-and-wales)) +says a household qualifies if, on the qualifying date of 23 August +2026, its electricity supplier is in the scheme and the person or +their partner gets one of: -The single cleanest WHD modelling target: payment to any household -with positive `pension_credit_guarantee_credit` in the winter season. -~1 million households per year by DWP outturn (out of ~3 million WHD -recipients). +- Universal Credit; +- Housing Benefit; +- income-related Employment and Support Allowance; +- Pension Credit. -- New parameter `gov.ofgem.warm_home_discount.core_group_1.amount` - (£150 since winter 2022-23, £140 before). -- New variable `warm_home_discount_core_1` (Household, YEAR) = - `amount` if any benunit member has positive Pension Credit Guarantee - Credit, else 0. -- Roll into a `warm_home_discount` umbrella variable; Phase 2 adds the - Core Group 2 leg. +The rebate is applied automatically. -### Phase 2 — Core Group 2 (England) +### Scotland -Requires: +The scheme runs under separate Scottish regulations +([2022](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1073/contents), SI +2022/1073; 2026 Regulations running to 31 March 2031 have been laid in +draft). For winter 2026-27 +([eligibility in Scotland](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/if-you-live-in-scotland)): -- Adding EPC band as a household input variable (or imputing it from - property age/type via a `policyengine-uk-data` second-stage QRF). -- Encoding the qualifying-benefit list per scheme year (the list - changed in winter 2022-23). -- Property-cost-score parameters from Ofgem's annual scheme rules. +- **Core group, automatic:** Pension Credit; Universal Credit with an + extra amount for a disability or health condition; income-related ESA + with a disability or pensioner premium; or a Support for Mortgage + Interest loan with one of those premiums. Also people responsible for + a child under 5 who are unemployed and on Universal Credit or + income-related ESA, or have a Support for Mortgage Interest loan. +- **Broader group, by application** to the energy supplier, which can + set its own extra criteria. -This is the bulk of the work. +The qualifying date is also 23 August 2026. -### Phase 3 — Scotland and Wales +### Northern Ireland -Application-based Core 2 isn't modellable from administrative -eligibility rules alone. The reasonable approximation is a take-up rate -applied to the same qualifying-benefit set: +The scheme doesn't operate in Northern Ireland: its primary legislation +extends to Great Britain only. + +## Proposed scope -- A `would_claim_warm_home_discount_scotland` / `_wales` stochastic - flag in `policyengine-uk-data` calibrated against Ofgem-published - Scottish/Welsh recipient counts. +### Phase 1: England and Wales -## Alternative: model as a Core 1-only umbrella +Now a rule on benefit receipt: -Given the complexity of Phase 2 and the relatively modest fiscal -weight of WHD (~£400m/year on Core 1 across the UK), a defensible v1 -is to model **only** Core Group 1 and document Core Group 2 as -under-imputed. That captures the most policy-relevant slice (Pension -Credit interaction, eligibility through the means-tested-benefit -ladder) at minimal modelling cost. +- Parameter `gov.ofgem.warm_home_discount.amount`: £150 (£140 before + winter 2022-23). Check the 2026 Regulations for any change. +- Parameter listing the qualifying benefits, so a reform can widen or + narrow the list. +- Variable `warm_home_discount` (Household, YEAR): the amount if the + household is in England or Wales and any benefit unit receives a + qualifying benefit. Read receipt from the modelled benefits, for + example `universal_credit`, `housing_benefit`, `esa_income` and + `pension_credit`, so that take-up carries through. +- No separate take-up flag, since the rebate is paid without a claim. -Reform analysis using PolicyEngine to "expand WHD to all UC -households" or similar would still work with Phase 1 alone by setting -a Core-1-equivalent uplift on the WHD parameter. +### Phase 2: Scotland core group -## Data needs +The core group can be built from the same benefit variables plus the +Universal Credit disability elements, the ESA premiums and the age of +the youngest child. -- **Ofgem WHD statistics**: - [Warm Home Discount Scheme: annual reports](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/warm-home-discount-annual-reports) - give per-scheme-year recipient counts and total spend by group. -- **DWP Pension Credit caseload** — already used for Pension Credit - calibration; no new data work needed for Phase 1. -- **EPC distribution by property type** for Phase 2 — VOA + ONS data - exist but need cross-walking to FRS rows. +### Phase 3: Scotland broader group + +Application-based, so it needs a take-up rate calibrated to Ofgem's +published recipient numbers for Scotland, on top of the eligible group. + +## Data and calibration + +- Ofgem's [Warm Home Discount pages](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd): + recipients and spend by group and country. +- DWP benefit caseloads, already used to calibrate the qualifying + benefits. +- The 2025-26 impact assessment and government response give the + expected number of recipients after the expansion. Use them to check + Phase 1's aggregate. ## Open questions -- The WHD scheme year runs October to March; PolicyEngine UK - variables are year-level. Should the variable represent the rebate - paid during the simulation year (Oct-Mar payments), or the rebate - accrued during the simulation year (Mar-Oct accrual window)? UC and - Pension Credit conventions suggest the former. -- The auto-payment for Core Group 1 means the rebate is functionally - irreversible — it doesn't depend on the household applying. Does the - model need a `would_claim_warm_home_discount` flag at all for Core 1, - or should it just be `defined_for = "has_pension_credit_guarantee_credit"`? - Recommendation: skip the take-up gate for Core 1. +- **Timing.** The scheme year runs from October to March, with the + qualifying date in August. A model year (April to March) contains one + winter's rebate, so pay the rebate in the year that contains the + winter. +- **Who counts as the household.** The rebate attaches to an + electricity account. In multi-benefit-unit households, decide whether + one qualifying benefit unit is enough (simplest, and likely right for + most households) and say so. +- **Electricity VAT interaction.** The rebate reduces the bill. If the + model ever nets it off energy spending, it would interact with the + domestic electricity VAT work in + [#2189](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/2189). + Modelled as a benefit, it doesn't. ## References -- [Warm Home Discount Scheme: official guidance](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme). -- [Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/687)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/687/contents) — the 2022-23 reform that introduced the EPC-based England Core Group 2. -- [Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/690)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/690/contents) — devolved variant. -- Ofgem, [Warm Home Discount Scheme: annual reports][gov-2022]. +- [The Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2026 (SI 2026/389)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/389/contents). +- [The Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/772)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/772/contents). +- [The Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/1073)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1073/contents). +- DESNZ, [Expanding the Warm Home Discount scheme, 2025 to 2026: government response](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf). +- GOV.UK, [Warm Home Discount Scheme](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme). +- Ofgem, [Warm Home Discount scheme pages and reports](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd). - Issue: [#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502). - -[gov-2022]: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/warm-home-discount-annual-reports From b9807f7b9ca126daa1edfcf07c4924ef0bce629a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2026 11:06:17 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 3/4] Check the Warm Home Discount plan against the 2026 Regulations MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Name the Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2026 (SI 2026/488), in force from 1 May 2026, instead of describing them as laid in draft. Confirm the £150 prescribed rebate in both 2026 Regulations, add the name-on-the-bill condition from GOV.UK, and match the 2025-26 expansion figures to the government response. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md | 24 ++++++++++++------- 1 file changed, 15 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md index 69eb12e641..151871ce26 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md @@ -24,14 +24,16 @@ They replace the Under the 2022 Regulations, the means-tested group had to pass a "high cost to heat" test based on property data. For winter 2025-26 that test was removed, so every household on a qualifying means-tested -benefit got the rebate: around 6 million households in Great Britain, -2.7 million more than the year before +benefit became eligible. The government estimated this would bring +2.7 million more households into the scheme, taking it to more than +6 million households in Great Britain ([government response, June 2025](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf)). For winter 2026-27, GOV.UK ([eligibility in England and Wales](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/if-you-live-in-england-and-wales)) says a household qualifies if, on the qualifying date of 23 August -2026, its electricity supplier is in the scheme and the person or +2026, its electricity supplier is in the scheme, the person's (or +their partner's) name is on the electricity bill, and the person or their partner gets one of: - Universal Credit; @@ -43,10 +45,12 @@ The rebate is applied automatically. ### Scotland -The scheme runs under separate Scottish regulations -([2022](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1073/contents), SI -2022/1073; 2026 Regulations running to 31 March 2031 have been laid in -draft). For winter 2026-27 +The scheme runs under separate Scottish regulations. +[The Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2026](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/488/contents) +(SI 2026/488) came into force on 1 May 2026 and run the scheme to +31 March 2031, replacing the +[2022 Regulations](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1073/contents) +(SI 2022/1073). Both 2026 Regulations set the rebate at £150. For winter 2026-27 ([eligibility in Scotland](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/if-you-live-in-scotland)): - **Core group, automatic:** Pension Credit; Universal Credit with an @@ -71,8 +75,9 @@ extends to Great Britain only. Now a rule on benefit receipt: -- Parameter `gov.ofgem.warm_home_discount.amount`: £150 (£140 before - winter 2022-23). Check the 2026 Regulations for any change. +- Parameter `gov.ofgem.warm_home_discount.amount`: £150, the + "prescribed rebate" in both sets of 2026 Regulations (£140 before + winter 2022-23). - Parameter listing the qualifying benefits, so a reform can widen or narrow the list. - Variable `warm_home_discount` (Household, YEAR): the amount if the @@ -123,6 +128,7 @@ published recipient numbers for Scotland, on top of the eligible group. - [The Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2026 (SI 2026/389)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/389/contents). - [The Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/772)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/772/contents). +- [The Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2026 (SI 2026/488)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/488/contents). - [The Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/1073)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1073/contents). - DESNZ, [Expanding the Warm Home Discount scheme, 2025 to 2026: government response](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf). - GOV.UK, [Warm Home Discount Scheme](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme). From cd7484ee2b06c4f779778c75741df56a61d312e0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 02:25:11 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 4/4] Correct the Warm Home Discount plan against the regulations MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The page reached main through #2386 and its changelog line shipped in 2.143.0, so this drops the released .added fragment and corrects main's copy: - Scheme years run 1 April to 31 March (SI 2026/389 reg 3(1)); only the rebates are paid in winter. - Scottish core group per Schedule 1 to SI 2026/488 (adds IS and JSA(IB) routes, the UC not-in-work condition, ESA limited capability; ESA has no plain disability premium); GOV.UK's summary is narrower. - The rebate was £120/£130/£135 then £140 under SI 2011/1033 reg 2. - The high-cost-to-heat test sat in the eligibility statements, and the 2025-26 list also included income-based JSA and Income Support. - Most rebates are automatic; the rest need a helpline call by 26 February 2027. - esa_income is reported receipt, so take-up doesn't carry through. - 6.1 million households is the impact assessment's figure; Ofgem's figures are on its reports-and-data page. - Note draft #2504 implements Phase 1 (not on main). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- ...-warm-home-discount-corrections.changed.md | 1 + changelog.d/502.added.md | 1 - .../gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md | 88 ++++++++++++------- 3 files changed, 58 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/502-warm-home-discount-corrections.changed.md delete mode 100644 changelog.d/502.added.md diff --git a/changelog.d/502-warm-home-discount-corrections.changed.md b/changelog.d/502-warm-home-discount-corrections.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..1a0870ad87 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/502-warm-home-discount-corrections.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Corrected the Warm Home Discount plan (docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md): the April-to-March scheme year, the Scottish core group under Schedule 1 to SI 2026/488, the pre-2022 rebate amounts, the 2025-26 qualifying benefits, the helpline route and the ESA take-up caveat. diff --git a/changelog.d/502.added.md b/changelog.d/502.added.md deleted file mode 100644 index 6f0751e936..0000000000 --- a/changelog.d/502.added.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1 +0,0 @@ -Added a plan for modelling the Warm Home Discount (#502) at `docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md`, reflecting the benefit-based eligibility in England and Wales from winter 2025-26 and the separate Scottish scheme. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md index 151871ce26..7f179f7833 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/ofgem/warm-home-discount-plan.md @@ -3,7 +3,9 @@ ```{warning} **Not yet modelled.** The Warm Home Discount (WHD) is a £150 rebate off a household's electricity bill each winter, paid by energy suppliers -under schemes that Ofgem administers. PolicyEngine UK doesn't model it. +under schemes that Ofgem administers. PolicyEngine UK doesn't model it; +draft [#2504](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/2504) +implements Phase 1 below. This page sets out the proposed scope, tracked in [#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502). Updated October 2026: in England and Wales eligibility is now based on @@ -21,13 +23,19 @@ They replace the [2022 Regulations](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/772/contents) (SI 2022/772), which applied to both England and Wales. -Under the 2022 Regulations, the means-tested group had to pass a -"high cost to heat" test based on property data. For winter 2025-26 -that test was removed, so every household on a qualifying means-tested +Under the eligibility statements made under the 2022 Regulations, the +means-tested group (Core Group 2) had to pass a "high cost to heat" test +based on property data. For winter 2025-26 the eligibility statement +removed that test, so every household on a qualifying means-tested benefit became eligible. The government estimated this would bring -2.7 million more households into the scheme, taking it to more than -6 million households in Great Britain -([government response, June 2025](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf)). +2.7 million more households into the scheme +([government response, June 2025](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf)), +taking it to around 6.1 million households in Great Britain +([impact assessment](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68529908ff16d05c5e6aa678/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-impact-assessment.pdf)). +For winter 2025-26 (qualifying date 24 August 2025) the qualifying +benefits also included income-based Jobseeker's Allowance and Income +Support, with Pension Credit Guarantee Credit in a separate core group +([eligibility statement, 2025 to 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/warm-home-discount-eligibility-statement-england-and-wales-2025-to-2026-scheme-year/warm-home-discount-eligibility-statement-england-and-wales-2025-to-2026)). For winter 2026-27, GOV.UK ([eligibility in England and Wales](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/if-you-live-in-england-and-wales)) @@ -41,7 +49,9 @@ their partner gets one of: - income-related Employment and Support Allowance; - Pension Credit. -The rebate is applied automatically. +Most eligible households get the rebate automatically through data +matching; the rest are sent a letter and must call the helpline by +26 February 2027 to confirm their details. ### Scotland @@ -53,12 +63,18 @@ The scheme runs under separate Scottish regulations. (SI 2022/1073). Both 2026 Regulations set the rebate at £150. For winter 2026-27 ([eligibility in Scotland](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/if-you-live-in-scotland)): -- **Core group, automatic:** Pension Credit; Universal Credit with an - extra amount for a disability or health condition; income-related ESA - with a disability or pensioner premium; or a Support for Mortgage - Interest loan with one of those premiums. Also people responsible for - a child under 5 who are unemployed and on Universal Credit or - income-related ESA, or have a Support for Mortgage Interest loan. +- **Core group, automatic.** Under Schedule 1 to the Regulations: + anyone on Pension Credit; Universal Credit claimants with the disabled + child addition, or who are not in work and have a child under 5 or + limited capability for work (with or without work-related activity); + income-related ESA claimants with a child under 5, a pensioner, severe + disability or enhanced disability premium, or limited capability for + work or work-related activity; Income Support or income-based JSA + claimants with a child under 5 or a pensioner, higher pensioner, + disability, severe disability, enhanced disability or disabled child + premium; and people receiving loans for mortgage interest through + Pension Credit, or through one of those legacy benefits with a child + under 5 or a qualifying premium. GOV.UK's summary is narrower. - **Broader group, by application** to the energy supplier, which can set its own extra criteria. @@ -76,22 +92,29 @@ extends to Great Britain only. Now a rule on benefit receipt: - Parameter `gov.ofgem.warm_home_discount.amount`: £150, the - "prescribed rebate" in both sets of 2026 Regulations (£140 before - winter 2022-23). -- Parameter listing the qualifying benefits, so a reform can widen or - narrow the list. + "prescribed rebate" in both sets of 2026 Regulations (£150 since + winter 2022-23; under the Warm Home Discount Regulations 2011 it was + £140 from 2014-15 to 2021-22, after £120, £130 and £135 in the first + three scheme years). +- Parameter listing the qualifying benefits by scheme year, since the + 2025-26 and 2026-27 lists differ, so a reform can widen or narrow the + list. - Variable `warm_home_discount` (Household, YEAR): the amount if the household is in England or Wales and any benefit unit receives a qualifying benefit. Read receipt from the modelled benefits, for example `universal_credit`, `housing_benefit`, `esa_income` and - `pension_credit`, so that take-up carries through. -- No separate take-up flag, since the rebate is paid without a claim. + `pension_credit`, so that take-up carries through (`esa_income` is + reported receipt, screened by capital and work tests). +- No separate take-up flag, since most rebates are paid through data + matching without a claim (a minority must phone the helpline). ### Phase 2: Scotland core group -The core group can be built from the same benefit variables plus the -Universal Credit disability elements, the ESA premiums and the age of -the youngest child. +The core group can be built from the same benefit variables plus +Universal Credit's disabled child and limited capability for work +assessments, whether the claimant is in work, whether there is a child +under 5, and legacy-benefit premiums. ESA's pensioner premium and loans +for mortgage interest have no variables yet. ### Phase 3: Scotland broader group @@ -100,8 +123,8 @@ published recipient numbers for Scotland, on top of the eligible group. ## Data and calibration -- Ofgem's [Warm Home Discount pages](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd): - recipients and spend by group and country. +- Ofgem's [Warm Home Discount reports and data](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd/warm-home-discount-whd-reports-and-data) + and annual reports: recipients and spend by group and country. - DWP benefit caseloads, already used to calibrate the qualifying benefits. - The 2025-26 impact assessment and government response give the @@ -110,10 +133,11 @@ published recipient numbers for Scotland, on top of the eligible group. ## Open questions -- **Timing.** The scheme year runs from October to March, with the - qualifying date in August. A model year (April to March) contains one - winter's rebate, so pay the rebate in the year that contains the - winter. +- **Timing.** The scheme year runs from April to March, but rebates are + paid in the winter: letters go out from late October and suppliers + apply the discount by 31 March, with the qualifying date in August. A + model year (6 April to 5 April) contains one scheme year's rebate, so + pay it in the model year that contains the winter. - **Who counts as the household.** The rebate attaches to an electricity account. In multi-benefit-unit households, decide whether one qualifying benefit unit is enough (simplest, and likely right for @@ -130,7 +154,9 @@ published recipient numbers for Scotland, on top of the eligible group. - [The Warm Home Discount (England and Wales) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/772)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/772/contents). - [The Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2026 (SI 2026/488)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/488/contents). - [The Warm Home Discount (Scotland) Regulations 2022 (SI 2022/1073)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2022/1073/contents). -- DESNZ, [Expanding the Warm Home Discount scheme, 2025 to 2026: government response](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf). +- DESNZ, [Expanding the Warm Home Discount scheme, 2025 to 2026: government response](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6852e6e9679778c74ec15e82/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-government-response.pdf) and [impact assessment](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68529908ff16d05c5e6aa678/expanding-the-warm-home-discount-scheme-2025-to-2026-impact-assessment.pdf). +- DESNZ, [Warm Home Discount eligibility statement, England and Wales, 2025 to 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/warm-home-discount-eligibility-statement-england-and-wales-2025-to-2026-scheme-year/warm-home-discount-eligibility-statement-england-and-wales-2025-to-2026). +- [The Warm Home Discount Regulations 2011 (SI 2011/1033)](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2011/1033/regulation/2): earlier rebate amounts. - GOV.UK, [Warm Home Discount Scheme](https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme). -- Ofgem, [Warm Home Discount scheme pages and reports](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd). +- Ofgem, [Warm Home Discount scheme pages](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd) and [reports and data](https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/environmental-and-social-schemes/warm-home-discount-whd/warm-home-discount-whd-reports-and-data). - Issue: [#502](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/502).