Give the UC LCWRA and carer elements and the work allowance on the claimants' circumstances only by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #1989 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-01T13:54:11Z

What was wrong

Universal Credit gave an award its LCWRA element, its carer element and a work allowance on any benefit-unit member's circumstances, where the law reads only the claimant's. A claimant is a single claimant, or each of two joint claimants (WRA 2012 s. 40).

LCWRA element (uc_LCWRA_element) summed uc_limited_capability_for_WRA over every member except the other member of a reg 3(3) single claim. A disabled 10-year-old gave a lone parent the LCWRA element on top of the disabled child addition. Reg 27(1) includes it "in respect of the fact that a claimant has limited capability for work and work-related activity".
Carer element (uc_carer_element) was defined_for = "benunit_has_carer", which counts every member. A 17-year-old at school caring 40 hours a week, or reporting Carer's Allowance, gave the parent the carer element (£2,512.08 a year in 2026-27). Reg 29(1) includes it "where a claimant has regular and substantial caring responsibilities for a severely disabled person".
Work allowance (is_uc_work_allowance_eligible) read every member's limited capability. Reg 22(1)(b)(i) gives no work allowance "where a single claimant does not have, or neither of joint claimants has, responsibility for a child or qualifying young person or limited capability for work".

Reading the same regulations showed further defects, fixed here too:

Reg 27(4)(a). Joint claimants who both have limited capability got two LCWRA elements; "the award is only to include one LCWRA element". The 2026-29 rebalancing modifier already sets one amount per award, so this moves only 2025 and 2030 on.
Reg 29(2) and (3). The carer element was one flat amount per benefit unit. Each joint claimant who is a carer now gets one. Carers of the same severely disabled person get one between them, read from the existing partners_care_for_same_severely_disabled_person, which the legacy carer premium also reads.
Reg 29(4). A carer who has limited capability gets only the LCWRA element, unless that element is included for the other joint claimant. The model gave both.

Changes

New uc_carer_element_included_for_claimant (Person). It says whether the award includes the carer element in respect of this person:
- a claimant who is a carer (is_carer_for_benefits, reg 30). The claimants are is_uc_assessed_claimant less the other member of a reg 3(3) single claim (other_member_of_single_claim), the set Model a Universal Credit claim by a member of a couple as a single person (UC Regs 2013 reg 3(3)) #2084 used for these elements. So an ineligible-partner flag that marks no single claim leaves the rules alone;
- but not the claimant the award's LCWRA element is included for. That exclusion applies only when the element is in the award (uc_LCWRA_element > 0). When there is a choice, the model takes the element to be included for a claimant with LCWRA who isn't a carer, otherwise the elder. A nil LCWRA element, as in the reg 28 relevant period (ADM F6034), leaves the carer element alone;
- where partners_care_for_same_severely_disabled_person, only one carer, the elder, in place of the couple's election.
uc_carer_element is the number of such claimants × the reg 36 amount. receives_uc_carer_element, which the DfE extended childcare criteria read, follows the same per-claimant flag.
uc_LCWRA_element reads the same claimant set, and is one amount per award.
is_uc_work_allowance_eligible reads is_uc_assessed_claimant & uc_limited_capability_for_work.
- Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076, now on main, made the limb limited capability for work.
- This PR limits it to the assessed claimant or partner. That keeps the other member of a reg 3(3) single claim, because reg 22(3) makes the deduction "the same as ... if the couple were joint claimants".
The disability_basic_income contrib reform (off by default) needs a claimant with limited capability for its LCWRA route.
Main's benefit cap (Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076, Give Universal Credit and Housing Benefit their own benefit cap and LHA shared-accommodation rules #2089) reads the elements by inclusion: reg 83(1)(a) "the LCWRA element is included", and (j) for the carer element.
- Two of its YAML cases used benunit_has_carer to stand for the award's carer element, which the element no longer reads. They now enter uc_carer_element directly, as positive or nil, testing the same reg 83(1)(j) question.
- Its property tests built a positive model-owned LCWRA element from a non-claimant's limited capability, which the formula no longer gives. Where they test that such an element is not an entry and does not lift the cap, they now store one with set_model_value, as the rebalancing stores what it rescales. Where they test the formula, they expect the claimant-only result. The comment above element_included no longer says the model's formula gives elements for any member. Two docstrings in limited_work_ability/ drop "the work allowance still reads every member" as their reason for not inferring capability from a person's own ESA. Nothing is inferred either way.

Not changed:

num_carers and benunit_has_carer have no formula readers left. is_carer_for_benefits is read per person elsewhere:
- the PC carer addition (claimant or partner);
- the IS carer route;
- UC's reg 8 minimum age, childcare and work-related group tests, each about the person's own caring.
uc_limited_capability_for_WRA still defaults to is_disabled_for_benefits.

Representation limits (from the reviews, disclosed rather than fixed):

Reg 27(4)(b) wants the higher claimant-specific LCWRA amount. The model has one per-award rate (the rebalancing status is benefit-unit level), so a protected-rate carer paired with a new-rate partner who both have LCWRA can't be represented exactly.
Reg 29(3) also covers carers in separate awards; the model allocates only within a benefit unit.
The reg 28 relevant period has no input; a nil entered LCWRA element stands for it.

Law

From legislation.gov.uk CLML (/data.xml), current revised text, fetched 2026-10-01.

WRA 2012 ss. 12 and 40; UC Regs 2013 regs 22(1)(b) and (3), 27(1) and (4), 29(1), (2) and (4), 30(1)-(2); reg 36 amounts

WRA 2012 s. 12:

(1) The calculation of an award of universal credit is to include amounts in respect of such particular needs or circumstances of a claimant as may be prescribed.
(2) The needs or circumstances prescribed under subsection (1) may include— ... (b) the fact that a claimant has limited capability for work and work-related activity; (c) the fact that a claimant has regular and substantial caring responsibilities for a severely disabled person.

WRA 2012 s. 40:

“claimant” means a single claimant or each of joint claimants;
“joint claimants” means members of a couple who jointly make a claim or in relation to whom an award of universal credit is made;

Reg 22:

(1)(b) the following amount of the claimant’s earned income (or, in the case of joint claimants, their combined earned income) in respect of the assessment period— (i) in a case where no work allowance is specified in the table below (that is where a single claimant does not have, or neither of joint claimants has, responsibility for a child or qualifying young person or limited capability for work), 55% of that earned income; or (ii) in any other case, 55% of the amount by which that earned income exceeds the work allowance specified in the table.
(3) In the case of an award where the claimant is a member of a couple, but makes a claim as a single person, the amount to be deducted from the maximum amount in accordance with section 8(3) of the Act is the same as the amount that would be deducted in accordance with paragraph (1) if the couple were joint claimants.

Reg 27:

(1) An award of universal credit is to include an amount in respect of the fact that a claimant has limited capability for work and work-related activity (“the LCWRA element”).
(4) In the case of joint claimants, where each of them has limited capability for work and work-related activity, (a) the award is only to include one LCWRA element , and (b) where the LCWRA element for each of them is a different amount, the LCWRA element to be included is the higher amount.

Reg 29:

(1) An award of universal credit is to include an amount (“the carer element”) specified in the table in regulation 36 where a claimant has regular and substantial caring responsibilities for a severely disabled person, but subject to paragraphs (2) to (6) and section 70 of the Contributions and Benefits Act ...
(2) In the case of joint claimants, an award is to include the carer element for both joint claimants if they both qualify for it, but only if they are not caring for the same severely disabled person.
(4) Where an amount would, apart from this paragraph, be included in an award in relation to a claimant by virtue of paragraphs (1) to (3), and the claimant has limited capability for work and work-related activity (and, in the case of joint claimants, the LCWRA element has not been included in respect of the other claimant), only the LCWRA element may be included in respect of the claimant.

Reg 30:

(1) ... a person has regular and substantial caring responsibilities for a severely disabled person if— (a) they satisfy the conditions for entitlement to a carer’s allowance or would do so but for the fact that— (i) their earnings have exceeded the limit prescribed for the purposes of that allowance; or (ii) they are— (aa) resident, or treated as resident, in Scotland; or (bb) resident outside of Great Britain and have a genuine and sufficient link to Scotland; or (b) they are entitled to carer support payment.
(2) Paragraph (1)(a) applies whether or not the person has made a claim for a carer's allowance.

Reg 36 table, a month:

2026-27: LCWRA element £217.26 (£429.80 for a pre-2026, severe conditions criteria or terminally ill claimant); carer element £209.34; disabled child addition, lower rate, £164.79.
2025-26: LCWRA element £423.27; carer element £201.68.

Reg 22 table, 2026-27: higher work allowance £710, lower £427.

DWP's Advice for Decision Making chapter F6, para F6037, tabulates which of the two elements an award includes for each combination. It is guidance, not law; it matches regs 27(4) and 29(2) and (4), and the property tests check the model against it.

Tests

YAML. Expected values are hand-computed from the reg 36 and reg 22 tables: 2026-27 carer £209.34, LCWRA £217.26 and disabled child addition (lower) £164.79 a month; 2025-26 carer £201.68 and LCWRA £423.27; work allowance £710 and £427.

uc_carer_element.yaml (25 cases):
- reg 29(1): a QYP who cares, by hours or by reported Carer's Allowance, gives 0, and a third flagged member's caring gives 0;
- reg 30(2): no claim is needed;
- reg 29(2): carers of different people get 2 × £2,512.08;
- reg 29(3): carers of the same person get one element, and two carers known only by hours default to the same person;
- every reg 29(4) combination;
- a nil entered LCWRA element keeps the carer element;
- per-claimant attribution.
uc_LCWRA_element.yaml:
- a disabled child gives 0 plus the £1,977.48 addition, and so does a disabled QYP;
- a disabled parent of a disabled child gets £2,607.12 + £1,977.48;
- reg 27(4): both joint claimants get one element (£5,079.24 in 2025-26, £2,607.12 in 2026-27);
- a third flagged member gives 0;
- plus main's 2027-29 freeze cases.
Work allowance: a claimant's or one joint claimant's limited capability gives it; a non-qualifying 17-year-old's, a third flagged member's or a looked-after child's does not.
DfE extended childcare: a 2021 case where the carer element's attribution decides the partner exclusion (SI 2016/1257 reg 9(3)).
Main's reg 3(3) cases in claims_as_single_person.yaml pass unchanged.

Hypothesis (test_uc_claimant_elements_properties.py). Generated single claimants and couples, with up to four dependants aged 0-19, each randomly disabled, with LCWRA, caring, or reporting Carer's Allowance; in England, Wales and Scotland; 2025 and 2026. Invariants:

A dependant's disability or caring never changes the LCWRA element, the carer element or the work allowance.
Differential against DWP's ADM F6037 table. The model includes the table's number of each element:
- for every generated family, and in a deterministic run of all 20 single and joint carer/LCWRA combinations, at amounts written from reg 36;
- for carers of the same person, the table's number capped at one.
Bounds: at most one LCWRA element, at most one carer element per claimant, and the two elements together never exceed the number of claimants. Giving both claimants LCWRA gives exactly the LCWRA amount that giving it to one does. That check is rate-free, so it covers 2026's per-award rebalanced amounts.
Monotonicity: a claimant's limited capability never lowers the elements' total or the work allowance.
Member order doesn't matter.

No violation is intended.

Runs.

At the Sol-approved head 5ffbc6211: full policyengine-core test policyengine_uk/tests/policy 3,099 passed; property file 9 passed (Sol's run, 4 workers).
At this head, after merging main 582b86315, targeted:
- YAML (UC, DWP including the benefit cap, DfE, the contrib reform, the carer premium): 1,559 passed, 0 failed;
- pytest -n 2 over 16 files (this PR's properties; the benefit cap, LCWRA freeze/draw/warnings, rebalancing, single-claim, disabled child, work-related groups, DfE and carer property files). First run: 226 passed, 14 failed. The 14 assumed the old formula: 13 in Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076's cap property file, 1 single-claim flag case. After the adaptations above, the cap file passes 46 of 46 and the single-claim file 8 of 8.
CI runs the full suite.

Impact

Certified dataset (Aggregate impact CI). See the Aggregate impact comment on this PR. It measures the merge commit against main for 2025-26 to 2031-32, and is the figure for Budget-day numbers.

Local real runs, supporting. These are two Microsimulation runs on a private copy of the 2024-25 Enhanced FRS (sha256 e433e532…): main e01f2f5ec against this PR at the approved head 5ffbc6211, before the latest merge of main. Aggregates only.

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
UC, main (£bn)	79.31	83.66	85.60	87.27	88.35	85.18
UC, this PR (£bn)	76.01	81.24	83.13	84.75	85.87	83.22
Change (£bn)	−3.29	−2.42	−2.47	−2.52	−2.48	−1.95
Benefit units losing (k)	653	577	579	582	583	631
Benefit units gaining (k)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Leaving UC (k)	18.2	16.6	16.6	16.6	16.6	14.1
Child poverty AHC (main → PR)	25.97 → 27.80%	23.54 → 24.30%	23.90 → 24.68%	24.03 → 24.80%	24.28 → 25.05%	26.06 → 26.41%

In 2026:

−£2.20bn comes from awards whose only limited-capability flag was a dependant's. Every such flag in UC awards comes from the dependant's own DLA or PIP, since the flag defaults to is_disabled_for_benefits. These are 467k weighted children under 16 and 83k young people aged 16 to 19. Those awards keep the disabled child addition and stay exempt from the cap through that DLA or PIP (reg 83(1)(f), (g)): no benefit unit on UC changes cap status.
−£0.22bn comes from claimant carers with LCWRA (reg 29(4)).
Awards with an LCWRA element fall from 2.20m to 1.75m, and awards with a carer element from 678k to 543k.
The reg 29(2)/(3) allocation moves nothing on this dataset. No benefit unit gains against main, so a second carer element is never paid. Comparing award by award against the round-2 head d721bcec8, the same-person cap and the nil-LCWRA rule change no award.
By household origin: FRS-origin −£2.10bn, SPI-synthetic −£0.32bn.

policyengine-uk-data calibrates weights to OBR UC spending and caseloads, so a rebuilt dataset would reweight towards those totals.

Review

GPT-6.1 Sol, round 2 at d721bcec8: REQUEST_CHANGES. The report was salvaged after a host reboot. It found two carer-element regressions (reg 29(3) same person; reg 29(4) firing with no LCWRA element), the inherited attribution defect and a changelog nit.
Round 3, a delta at 5ffbc6211: APPROVE. All three counterexamples pass; 47 YAML cases and 9 properties pass; the remaining changelog nit is fixed here.
Since that approval, this head adds:
- the merge of main;
- the work-allowance combination with Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076, agreed on Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076;
- two cap YAML cases rewritten from benunit_has_carer to entered elements;
- Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076's cap property tests adapted;
- the elements' claimant set switched to Model a Universal Credit claim by a member of a couple as a single person (UC Regs 2013 reg 3(3)) #2084's (assessed claimants less the other member of a single claim);
- one cap comment and two docstrings;
- the changelog wording.
The UK hub runs the delta review over these.

Axiom

axiom: uk/regulations/uksi/2013/376/22, /27 and /29 are encoded-correct. Their inputs are per claimant, so no dependant can enter. TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#405 (merged) added 23 companion cases: reg 27(4), both ways of the reg 29(4) parenthetical, reg 29(2) for the same disabled person, and the LCW-only work allowance. TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#404 is queued: the UC ProgramSpec sums the carer element over adult_of_benefit_unit, and its oracle compares PolicyEngine with itself.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_claimant_elements_properties.py::test_dependants_disability_or_caring_never_gives_claimants_an_element

…nts only The LCWRA element is for 'the fact that a claimant has limited capability for work and work-related activity' (UC Regs 2013 reg. 27(1)), the carer element is included 'where a claimant has regular and substantial caring responsibilities' (reg. 29(1)), and the work allowance turns on whether 'a single claimant' or 'joint claimants' have limited capability (reg. 22(1)(b)(i)). All three read every member of the benefit unit, so a disabled child gave the claimant the LCWRA element on top of the disabled child addition, and a qualifying young person who was a carer gave the claimant the carer element. The benefit cap exception for limited capability now tests that the LCWRA element is in the award (reg. 83(1)(a)) rather than any member's limited capability. A child's disability living allowance, a qualifying young person's personal independence payment and their entitlement to Carer's Allowance still exempt the award (reg. 83(1)(f), (g), (i)). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ability UC Regs 2013 reg. 27(4)(a): 'In the case of joint claimants, where each of them has limited capability for work and work-related activity, the award is only to include one LCWRA element'. The formula summed an element for each member. The Universal Credit rebalancing modifier already sets one amount per award for 2026 to 2029, so this changes 2025 and 2030 onwards. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…o a carer with the LCWRA element UC Regs 2013 reg. 29(2): 'an award is to include the carer element for both joint claimants if they both qualify for it, but only if they are not caring for the same severely disabled person'. The model does not record who is cared for; it already pays each of two carers Carer's Allowance, so it takes them to care for different people. Reg. 29(4): a claimant who is a carer and has limited capability for work and work-related activity has only the LCWRA element, unless that element is included for the other joint claimant. The formula included both elements for the same claimant. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…trial injuries benefit, Attendance Allowance and armed forces payments UC Regs 2013 reg. 83(1)(a) to (e) name 'the claimant' or 'a claimant' for ESA with the support component, industrial injuries benefit, attendance allowance and armed forces compensation payments, where reg. 83(1)(f) to (ia) add 'a child or qualifying young person for whom a claimant is responsible' for disability living allowance and 'a qualifying young person' for personal independence payment and Carer's Allowance. HB Regs 2006 reg. 75F(1) draws the same lines. The exemptions summed every member of the benefit unit for all of them. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ant with limited capability The contrib reform pays anyone 'receiving' the Universal Credit LCWRA element. Now that the element is the claimant's (UC Regs 2013 reg. 27(1)), a child's or qualifying young person's limited capability flag no longer qualifies them. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…s an element, against DWP's table of combinations Hypothesis properties: a dependant's disability, limited capability, caring or Carer's Allowance never changes the LCWRA element, the carer element or the work allowance; the elements match DWP's ADM F6037 table for all sixteen combinations of two claimants' carer and LCWRA status, with amounts written from the reg. 36 table; at most one LCWRA element and one carer element per claimant; a claimant's limited capability never lowers the elements; member order does not matter; and a dependant's ESA, industrial injuries benefit or armed forces compensation payment never exempts an award from the benefit cap, while a child's DLA always does. Towncrier fragment for the change. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ESA and IIB to the whole award The capped families' first dependant could be a 16-year-old outside non-advanced education, whom the model does not treat as a child or qualifying young person, so their DLA rightly did not exempt the award (reg. 83(1)(f)). A dependant's armed forces compensation payment makes them severely disabled for benefits, which changes the disabled child addition, so it is held only to the exemption flag. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-02T14:07:03Z

Coordination with #2076. That PR scopes the benefit cap's exceptions to the people HB Regs 2006 reg 75F(1) and UC Regs 2013 reg 83(1) name, and counts only the claimant's or couple's benefits in benefit_cap_reduction. It is stacked on #2027. Both PRs rewrite is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py and is_benefit_cap_exempt_other.py, so whichever lands second resolves by hand.

Persons. The two agree on who counts for each head, with two differences in Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076. Because the model applies one cap to UC and HB, it also counts HB young persons (is_child_or_young_person_for_legacy_benefits). It also counts a 16-year-old (UC reg 5(1)(a)), unless they receive benefits in their own right (reg 5(5)) or are looked after (reg 4(6)).
Claimant variable. Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076 uses is_claimant_or_partner. Once Count only claimants' income in Universal Credit #1978 lands, is_claimant_or_partner | is_uc_assessed_claimant keeps the union of both schemes.
ESA. Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076 requires the support component (reg 83(1)(a); new esa_includes_support_component). This PR still lets any esa_income, and any claimant's esa_contrib, lift the cap. Please keep Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076's ESA test when resolving.
LCWRA and carer. Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076 tests "a claimant with limited capability" and "a claimant who is a carer" directly. It also accepts an element entered directly, recognised by value. Once this PR's claimant-only elements land, that is the same as uc_LCWRA_element > 0 or uc_carer_element > 0. Where reg 29(4) gives a carer with limited capability only the LCWRA element, that element lifts the cap instead.
One-directional LCWRA inference. Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076 takes a person whose own ESA lacks the support component not to have LCWRA (reg 40(1)(a)(ii)). It does not infer LCWRA from the support component alone, because uc_LCWRA_element and the work allowance still read every member. Once your claimant-only element lands, the positive direction can follow.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-02T16:42:10Z

Coordination with #2084 (UC claim by a member of a couple as a single person, UC Regs 2013 reg 3(3)).

That PR excludes the other member of a single claim (other_member_of_single_claim in utils/uc_work_related_requirements.py) from the LCWRA and carer elements (regs 27(1), 29(1): "a claimant") and from the reg 83(1) cap exceptions. It does this on main's any-member formulas. When the two meet:

LCWRA element, carer element, reg 83 exceptions. Use is_uc_single_or_joint_claimant, or is_uc_assessed_claimant & ~other_member_of_single_claim(person, period), instead of is_uc_assessed_claimant. The reg 3(3) partner is a member of the couple but not a claimant.
Work allowance (is_uc_work_allowance_eligible). Keep the reg 3(3) partner. Reg 22(3) makes the deduction "the same as the amount that would be deducted in accordance with paragraph (1) if the couple were joint claimants", and para (1)(b)(i) gives no work allowance only where "neither of joint claimants has ... limited capability for work". rulespec-uk 22.yaml encodes the same reading (test member_of_couple_claiming_as_single_uses_joint_claimant_deduction). is_uc_assessed_claimant as it stands is right for this.
The YAML cases in claims_as_single_person.yaml and the properties in test_uc_single_claim_properties.py pin both.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-02T18:29:41Z

Coordination with #2089 (each scheme its own benefit cap), stacked on #2084.

#2089 deletes is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py and is_benefit_cap_exempt_other.py. The UC exceptions (LCWRA element, carer element, a claimant's benefits; reg 83) are now in policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/universal_credit/benefit_cap/is_uc_benefit_cap_exempt_specified_benefit.py. HB's are in .../housing_benefit/benefit_cap/is_housing_benefit_benefit_cap_exempt_specified_benefit.py (reg 75F, which names the partner; no UC elements).

This PR's claimant-only changes to the cap exceptions belong in the UC file only. The UC file already reads uc_carer_element > 0 and excludes the reg 3(3) other member's LCWRA; is_uc_assessed_claimant can replace that once both have landed.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-04T18:30:14Z

Base moved: #1978 merged main (8090f1c19, which now has #1896, #1950, #1958, #1949, #1973 and #2088) into uc-claimant-only-income. Its head is now 0e74b27d6.

To keep this PR stacked, merge origin/uc-claimant-only-income into this branch (no rebase).

Expect conflicts where main changed the same files, and check these against main:

uc_childcare_work_condition now has Apply the UC childcare work condition's partner exceptions and treated-as-working rules (UC Regs 2013 reg 32) #2088's reg 32 limbs, with Count only claimants' income in Universal Credit #1978's is_uc_assessed_claimant mask.
is_uc_claimant now delegates to is_claimant_or_partner, so an adult child is no longer flagged by the fallback. Fixtures that need a third flagged member must set is_claimant_or_partner: true on all three.
is_benefit_cap_exempt_other changed in Apply the benefit cap to mixed-age couples on Universal Credit, and keep them off pensioner Council Tax Reduction #1944.

UK hub notices 2 and 5 (~/reviews/uk-hub/notices.md) also apply after the main merge.

Main now has #1978 (is_uc_assessed_claimant), #1896, #1944 and #2084 (the reg 3(3) single claim, is_uc_single_or_joint_claimant). Resolution: - uc_LCWRA_element and uc_carer_element read is_uc_single_or_joint_claimant, which keeps #2084's rule that the other member of a single claim is not a claimant, and this branch's regs 27(4), 29(2) and 29(4). - is_uc_work_allowance_eligible reads is_uc_assessed_claimant, which keeps the other member of a single claim as reg. 22(3) requires, and main's is_responsible_for_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_universal_credit. - is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability and is_benefit_cap_exempt_other take main's version. The cap exceptions are now #2076's (reg 83/75F person scopes) and #2089's (separate UC and HB caps); this branch's cap test file and cap properties are removed with them. - disability_basic_income reads is_uc_single_or_joint_claimant, like the element it pays on. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The cap exceptions are now #2076's and #2089's. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

receives_uc_carer_element (the DfE extended childcare tests read it for parents) flagged every carer in a benefit unit whose award included the element. The element is a claimant's (UC Regs 2013 reg. 29(1)), so a child or qualifying young person who also cares does not receive it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…e person, none for the claimant the LCWRA element is included for Review round 2 (GPT-6.1 Sol, salvaged report at d721bce) found three defects in the carer element: - Reg 29(3): two joint claimants caring for the same severely disabled person had two carer elements. The model records this as partners_care_for_same_severely_disabled_person (the legacy carer premium reads it); the element now reads it too, and the elder is taken where the couple would elect. - Reg 29(4) suppressed the carer element on the LCWRA flag even when the award included no LCWRA element (a nil element, as in the reg 28 waiting period, where ADM F6034 keeps the carer element). It now applies only when the LCWRA element is included, in respect of the claimant it is included for: one who is not a carer if there is one, otherwise the elder. - receives_uc_carer_element attributed the element to both members where a carer with LCWRA had a partner who was the carer; it now reads the new person-level uc_carer_element_included_for_claimant, which uc_carer_element sums. Tests: same-person, nil-LCWRA and attribution YAML cases; a 2021 extended childcare case where the attribution decided the partner exclusion; property tests for same-person caring and for one LCWRA element whether one or both claimants have limited capability (rate-free, so it covers 2026's per-award rebalanced amounts); and a deterministic run of all twenty single and joint carer/LCWRA combinations against ADM F6037. Changelog as a bullet. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

This reverts commit d7697ed. Independent review (subfleet 20261013-010643, review-delta-d7697edee.md) found that reading uc_LCWRA_element > 0 matches the old flag test at baseline but not under a reform that sets the element's amount to nil (gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.amount = 0, or a nil new-claimant health element): main keeps the exception, the element reading drops it. Whether a nil element is "included in the award" is a reading the law leaves open, so this PR keeps main's flag test and stays a pure split. Restricting reg 83(1)(a) to the claimants is #1989's change; the port it needs is noted on #1989 and #2089. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Main (582b863) now has #2076 (benefit cap person scopes; the work allowance reads uc_limited_capability_for_work), #2089 (separate UC and HB caps) and the UC Act 2025 LCWRA freeze. Resolution: - is_uc_work_allowance_eligible: both changes, as agreed on #2076. Limited capability for work (reg. 22(1)(b)) of an assessed claimant, which keeps the other member of a single claim (reg. 22(3)). - uc_LCWRA_element.yaml: main's 2027-2029 freeze cases and this branch's claimant-only cases, both kept. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ings; reword the changelog's contrib sentence The LCWRA element and the work allowance now read only claimants, so the two docstrings' stated reason for not inferring capability from a person's own ESA no longer holds; the inference itself is unchanged. The changelog's disability basic income sentence now says what the route tests (review r3 P3). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-only elements - The elements, their attribution and the contrib reform read is_uc_assessed_claimant less other_member_of_single_claim, the set #2084 used for them, rather than is_uc_single_or_joint_claimant. The two differ only where an ineligible-partner flag marks no single claim (both members, or a lone adult, flagged), which leaves the rules alone (test_a_flag_marking_no_single_claim_leaves_cap_and_lha_rules_alone). - #2076's benefit cap tests built a positive model-owned LCWRA element from a non-claimant's limited capability, which the formula no longer gives. They now store one with set_model_value (as the rebalancing stores what it rescales) where they test that such an element is not an entry and does not lift the cap; where they test the formula, they expect the claimant-only result. Two YAML cases enter uc_carer_element instead of setting benunit_has_carer, and the comment above element_included no longer says the model's formula gives elements for any member. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T04:47:01Z

Hand-off to the UK hub (22 Oct).

Head: aea059fe8. Ready for review, MERGEABLE.
Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol round 3 APPROVED 5ffbc6211. Report: ~/reviews/uc-claimant-only-elements-2026-10-01/subfleet/review_r3_delta_full.md. Round 2 (REQUEST_CHANGES at d721bcec8, all fixed) is in review_r2b_partial.md in the same folder.
Delta since the approved head (git diff 5ffbc6211 aea059fe8; the hub runs the delta review over this):
1. Merge of main 582b86315. The work allowance combines Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076's limited capability for work with this PR's assessed-claimant limb, as agreed on Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076. Main's LCWRA freeze YAML cases are kept.
2. Two capability docstrings drop a reason this PR makes stale. The changelog's P3 nit is fixed.
3. The elements' claimant set is now is_uc_assessed_claimant less other_member_of_single_claim, the set Model a Universal Credit claim by a member of a couple as a single person (UC Regs 2013 reg 3(3)) #2084 used, so a flag that marks no single claim leaves the rules alone.
4. Lift the benefit cap only for the support component and the people HB reg 75F and UC reg 83 name, and cap only the family's benefits #2076's benefit cap tests are adapted: two YAML cases enter uc_carer_element, and the property tests plant a model-owned element with set_model_value where they test the guard. The comment above element_included is corrected.
Passed locally at aea059fe8:
- targeted YAML: 1,559 passed, 0 failed;
- pytest -n 2: the cap property file 46/46 and the single-claim file 8/8. 226 tests in 14 other related files passed before the last two changes. CI reruns them.
- At 5ffbc6211: full YAML tree 3,099 passed.
Pending: CI, including the Aggregate impact report. Local real runs at the approved head: UC −£2.42bn in 2026 (details in the body).
Depends on: nothing open.
Follow-ups owed (not this PR):
- Sum UC carer elements over claimants and independently verify claimant circumstances TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#404 is queued (the ProgramSpec carer sum, and the oracle).
- With the work allowance and elements now claimant-only, the model could infer limited capability for work, or LCWRA, from a person's own ESA. The two docstrings no longer rule it out; that is a separate change.
- The representation limits are listed in the body: mixed protected-rate reg 27(4)(b); cross-award reg 29(3); the reg 28 period only via an entered nil element.

github-actions · 2026-10-22T05:38:35Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 7cf7194fa5 against head 14968f25d0, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 287 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Universal Credit	2025-26	£78.81bn	£75.54bn	-£3.27bn
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£44,861	£43,623	-£1,238
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£47,079	£45,797	-£1,282
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£46,156	£44,941	-£1,215
Universal Credit	2031-32	£90.35bn	£87.92bn	-£2.44bn
Universal Credit	2028-29	£86.69bn	£84.28bn	-£2.41bn
Universal Credit	2030-31	£89.03bn	£86.64bn	-£2.38bn
Universal Credit	2027-28	£84.93bn	£82.55bn	-£2.38bn
Universal Credit	2026-27	£83.11bn	£80.75bn	-£2.36bn
Universal Credit	2029-30	£87.61bn	£85.26bn	-£2.35bn
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£47,439	£46,511	-£928
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£49,181	£48,493	-£688
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£61,621	£60,810	-£811
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2025-26	32.1%	33.4%	+1.31pp
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£50,288	£50,886	+£598
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£37,019	£36,614	-£405
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£47,925	£48,438	+£513
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	1,477k	1,399k	-78.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2030-31	1,486k	1,408k	-77.6k
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£48,027	£47,548	-£479
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2025-26	1,631k	1,552k	-78.4k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£51,174	£51,662	+£488
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£52,953	£53,447	+£494
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£37,811	£37,462	-£349
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2025-26	23.7%	24.6%	+0.91pp
Government balance, each receipt once	2025-26	£363.15bn	£366.42bn	+£3.27bn
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£44,926	£44,522	-£404
gov_balance	2025-26	£366.28bn	£369.55bn	+£3.27bn
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2025-26	25.6%	26.4%	+0.85pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2025-26	4,809k	5,005k	+196.5k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£49,329	£49,726	+£397
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£29,734	£29,973	+£239
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£28,323	£28,099	-£224
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2029-30	1,455k	1,399k	-55.7k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2025-26	3,560k	3,696k	+136.0k
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£69,267	£68,762	-£505
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£37,221	£36,950	-£270
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	13.0%	12.3%	-0.69pp
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£50,036	£49,690	-£346
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2031-32	32.5%	33.2%	+0.68pp

247 more flags are in the report artifact.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Winter Fuel Payment	-£0.2m	0	0	0	0	0	0
Universal Credit	-£3.27bn	-£2.36bn	-£2.38bn	-£2.41bn	-£2.35bn	-£2.38bn	-£2.44bn
Council Tax Reduction	-£1.1m	0	0	0	0	0	0
Tax-Free Childcare	+£87,781	+£37,167	+£38,051	+£38,967	+£39,921	+£40,903	+£41,900
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Winter Fuel Payment	-980	0	0	0	0	0	0
Universal Credit	-10.9k	-8.9k	-7.4k	-7.5k	-9.0k	-9.1k	-8.6k
Tax-Free Childcare	+963	+877	+880	+883	+887	+891	+895
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	-£3.27bn †	-£2.36bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.41bn †	-£2.35bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.44bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£3.27bn †	+£2.36bn †	+£2.38bn †	+£2.41bn †	+£2.35bn †	+£2.38bn †	+£2.44bn †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	-£3.27bn †	-£2.36bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.41bn †	-£2.35bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.44bn †
household_benefits	-£3.27bn †	-£2.36bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.41bn †	-£2.35bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.44bn †
gov_balance	+£3.27bn †	+£2.36bn †	+£2.38bn †	+£2.41bn †	+£2.35bn †	+£2.38bn †	+£2.44bn †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£3.27bn †	-£2.36bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.41bn †	-£2.35bn †	-£2.38bn †	-£2.44bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£3.27bn	-£2.36bn	-£2.38bn	-£2.41bn	-£2.35bn	-£2.38bn	-£2.44bn

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.31pp	+0.21pp	+0.17pp	+0.17pp	+0.17pp	+0.17pp	+0.17pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	+0.91pp	+0.57pp	+0.47pp	+0.48pp	+0.48pp	+0.48pp	+0.48pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0.18pp	+0.13pp	+0.11pp	+0.10pp	+0.10pp	+0.10pp	+0.10pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.44pp	+0.25pp	+0.25pp	+0.24pp	+0.24pp	+0.23pp	+0.25pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	+1.31pp	+0.66pp	+0.66pp	+0.65pp	+0.64pp	+0.63pp	+0.68pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+0.26pp	+0.17pp	+0.17pp	+0.16pp	+0.16pp	+0.15pp	+0.16pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+0.29pp	+0.03pp	+0.17pp	+0.05pp	-0.16pp	-0.14pp	+0.02pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	+0.85pp	+0.21pp	+0.48pp	+0.41pp	-0.07pp	+0.08pp	+0.33pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+0.17pp	+0.00pp	+0.10pp	+0.05pp	-0.14pp	-0.19pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	-0.10pp	-0.01pp	-0.41pp	-0.34pp	-0.27pp	-0.23pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.08pp	-0.23pp	+0.04pp	-0.06pp	-0.13pp	-0.25pp	-0.02pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	+0.51pp	-0.25pp	+0.44pp	+0.27pp	+0.02pp	-0.16pp	+0.14pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.12pp	-0.17pp	-0.02pp	-0.00pp	-0.09pp	-0.17pp	-0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.66pp	-0.42pp	-0.29pp	-0.69pp	-0.49pp	-0.68pp	-0.28pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+213.9k	+143.2k	+118.3k	+117.9k	+118.4k	+118.9k	+119.5k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	+136.0k	+86.1k	+71.2k	+72.3k	+72.6k	+73.0k	+73.3k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+77.9k	+57.0k	+47.1k	+45.6k	+45.8k	+46.0k	+46.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+309.2k	+173.1k	+173.7k	+169.2k	+166.5k	+162.6k	+175.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	+196.5k	+100.1k	+100.4k	+99.0k	+97.7k	+95.8k	+104.3k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+112.7k	+73.0k	+73.3k	+70.2k	+68.8k	+66.8k	+70.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	+199.8k	+21.6k	+116.2k	+38.0k	-111.4k	-102.2k	+11.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	+127.5k	+32.2k	+72.2k	+62.8k	-10.7k	+12.6k	+50.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	+73.0k	+1.3k	+45.3k	+21.4k	-62.4k	-83.4k	-12.3k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-725	-12.0k	-1.3k	-46.2k	-38.4k	-31.4k	-26.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-53.2k	-161.2k	+24.6k	-38.9k	-89.5k	-177.1k	-12.2k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	+76.2k	-38.1k	+67.1k	+40.4k	+3.7k	-24.2k	+21.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-51.1k	-73.8k	-9.0k	-523	-37.5k	-75.3k	-1.2k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-78.4k	-49.3k	-33.5k	-78.8k	-55.7k	-77.6k	-32.2k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	+0.0012	+0.0008	+0.0008	+0.0008	+0.0008	+0.0008	+0.0008

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£112 †	-£9.15 †	+£1.06 †	+£1.25 †	-£5.86 †	-£2.57 †	+£1.44 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£224 †	-£39 †	+£7.01 †	+£150 †	+£73 †	+£239 †	+£100 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£201 †	-£150 †	-£235 †	-£405 †	-£270 †	-£349 †	-£134 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.75 †	+£183 †	+£171 †	-£17 †	-£190 †	-£35 †	-£404 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£1,238 †	-£1,215 †	-£1,282 †	-£928 †	-£479 †	-£688 †	-£346 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	+£513 †	+£397 †	+£598 †	+£488 †	-£55 †	+£494 †	+£148 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£18 †	-£75 †	-£148 †	-£360 †	-£47 †	-£811 †	+£13 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£505 †	-£0.63 †	+£13 †	-£15 †	+£26 †	-£43 †	-£43 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	-£7.67 †	+£2.68 †	-£4.07 †	-£4.12 †	-£4.15 †	-£4.25 †	-£4.35 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£32 †	-£30 †	-£33 †	-£33 †	-£34 †	-£34 †	-£35 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£4.2m	+£2.1m	+£1.3m	+£1.4m	+£1.7m	+£1.8m	+£2.0m
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£20,140	+£0.1m	+£0	-£0	-£0	+£0	+£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£1.4m	-£2.0m	-£0.8m	-£0.6m	-£0.8m	-£0.8m	-£0.4m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	+£17	-£1	-£14	+£27	-£35	-£24	-£47
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	+£50.5m	+£44.8m	+£43.5m	+£43.7m	+£44.8m	+£46.8m	+£54.0m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£6.3m	+£2.4m	+£1.7m	+£1.8m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m	+£2.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£61	-£13	+£18	-£48	+£2	-£38	-£138
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	+£0	0	+£0	-£0	+£0	0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	+£11.7m	+£6.6m	+£4.4m	+£3.1m	+£2.6m	+£2.6m	+£3.2m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	-£2.3m	-£0.6m	-£0.7m	-£0.7m	-£0.7m	-£0.7m	-£0.7m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	-£51.4m	-£44.7m	-£43.5m	-£43.6m	-£44.8m	-£46.8m	-£53.9m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	-£11.7m	-£6.6m	-£4.4m	-£3.1m	-£2.6m	-£2.6m	-£3.2m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 2	-£56 (-0.2%)	-£37 (-0.1%)	-£37 (-0.1%)	-£38 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)	-£39 (-0.1%)	-£40 (-0.1%)
Decile 3	-£143 (-0.4%)	-£122 (-0.3%)	-£123 (-0.3%)	-£106 (-0.3%)	-£101 (-0.3%)	-£96 (-0.3%)	-£108 (-0.3%)
Decile 4	-£180 (-0.5%)	-£96 (-0.2%)	-£89 (-0.2%)	-£110 (-0.3%)	-£102 (-0.2%)	-£111 (-0.3%)	-£102 (-0.2%)
Decile 5	-£222 (-0.5%)	-£184 (-0.4%)	-£194 (-0.4%)	-£193 (-0.4%)	-£175 (-0.4%)	-£180 (-0.4%)	-£221 (-0.4%)
Decile 6	-£205 (-0.4%)	-£167 (-0.3%)	-£169 (-0.3%)	-£169 (-0.3%)	-£180 (-0.3%)	-£181 (-0.3%)	-£157 (-0.3%)
Decile 7	-£131 (-0.2%)	-£88 (-0.2%)	-£99 (-0.2%)	-£103 (-0.2%)	-£98 (-0.2%)	-£101 (-0.2%)	-£97 (-0.2%)
Decile 8	-£86 (-0.1%)	-£31 (-0.0%)	-£20 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£19 (-0.0%)	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
all	-£105 (-0.2%)	-£75 (-0.1%)	-£76 (-0.1%)	-£76 (-0.1%)	-£74 (-0.1%)	-£75 (-0.1%)	-£76 (-0.1%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	3.0%
2026-27	0.0%	2.5%
2027-28	0.0%	2.5%
2028-29	0.0%	2.5%
2029-30	0.0%	2.5%
2030-31	0.0%	2.4%
2031-32	0.0%	2.4%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `7cf7194fa5`	uk 2.146.1 (files `582dff2713e2`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`5d40da9d9749`	`f210f83d5be4`	1508.23s
head	#1989 merged into main `14968f25d0`	uk 2.146.1 (files `cb65e488316c`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`5d40da9d9749`	`f210f83d5be4`	1494.52s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£82.55bn	£84.28bn	£85.26bn	£86.64bn	£87.92bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,402k	6,412k	6,386k	6,378k	6,363k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,029k	1,033k	1,035k	1,039k	1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£532.97bn †	£548.09bn †	£554.19bn †	£561.20bn †	£569.80bn †	£578.99bn †	£588.12bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£366.42bn †	£391.15bn †	£421.99bn †	£448.18bn †	£475.87bn †	£503.61bn †	£535.36bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.31bn	£1,012.51bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.73bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.75bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£532.97bn †	£548.09bn †	£554.19bn †	£561.20bn †	£569.80bn †	£578.99bn †	£588.12bn †
household_benefits	£532.97bn †	£548.09bn †	£554.19bn †	£561.20bn †	£569.80bn †	£578.99bn †	£588.12bn †
gov_balance	£369.55bn †	£394.28bn †	£425.12bn †	£451.31bn †	£479.00bn †	£506.74bn †	£538.49bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,654.59bn †	£1,703.92bn †	£1,735.54bn †	£1,769.61bn †	£1,805.75bn †	£1,847.34bn †	£1,899.04bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,463.15bn	£1,510.70bn	£1,542.73bn	£1,575.67bn	£1,609.74bn	£1,648.74bn	£1,699.14bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.2%	15.7%	15.8%	15.9%	16.0%	15.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.4%	22.0%	21.9%	22.1%	22.3%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.4%	14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.2%	22.4%	22.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.6%	31.8%	32.4%	32.9%	33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.4%	20.6%	20.9%	21.2%	21.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.4%	16.5%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.7%	23.6%	23.2%	23.3%	23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.4%	14.3%	14.0%	14.0%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.4%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.4%	31.3%	31.3%	31.5%	32.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.2%	12.2%	12.9%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,270k	10,578k	10,975k	11,077k	11,210k	11,339k	11,354k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,696k	3,227k	3,332k	3,325k	3,371k	3,407k	3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,940k	5,792k	6,115k	6,209k	6,281k	6,360k	6,367k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,972k	14,539k	15,080k	15,313k	15,657k	15,918k	16,049k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,005k	4,656k	4,776k	4,818k	4,933k	5,035k	5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,445k	8,399k	8,848k	9,001k	9,191k	9,342k	9,400k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,980k	11,485k	11,639k	11,698k	11,596k	11,730k	11,890k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,967k	3,570k	3,578k	3,587k	3,531k	3,566k	3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,227k	6,161k	6,401k	6,485k	6,468k	6,552k	6,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,785k	1,754k	1,660k	1,627k	1,597k	1,611k	1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,057k	14,705k	14,981k	15,071k	15,191k	15,336k	15,683k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,024k	4,718k	4,751k	4,755k	4,774k	4,816k	4,937k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,480k	8,486k	8,784k	8,917k	9,017k	9,112k	9,256k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,552k	1,501k	1,445k	1,399k	1,399k	1,408k	1,491k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3087	0.3060	0.3074	0.3080	0.3085	0.3091	0.3102

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,812 †	£17,986 †	£17,935 †	£17,993 †	£18,322 †	£18,504 †	£18,682 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,099 †	£29,063 †	£28,712 †	£29,132 †	£29,403 †	£29,973 †	£30,418 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,429 †	£35,657 †	£36,210 †	£36,614 †	£36,950 †	£37,462 †	£38,358 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,336 †	£40,986 †	£41,929 †	£42,676 †	£43,245 †	£43,990 †	£44,522 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,623 †	£44,941 †	£45,797 †	£46,511 †	£47,548 †	£48,493 †	£49,690 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,438 †	£49,726 †	£50,886 †	£51,662 †	£52,112 †	£53,447 †	£54,353 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,300 †	£57,493 †	£58,325 †	£59,062 †	£60,102 †	£60,810 †	£62,906 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,762 †	£70,355 †	£71,684 †	£72,795 †	£74,377 †	£75,754 †	£77,535 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,640 †	£81,994 †	£83,188 †	£84,482 †	£86,052 †	£87,565 †	£90,641 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,586 †	£120,458 †	£122,388 †	£124,519 †	£126,769 †	£129,039 †	£131,852 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.40bn	£-21.83bn	£-21.91bn	£-22.28bn	£-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.48bn	£12.82bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.39bn	£21.82bn	£21.90bn	£22.27bn	£22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.24bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T08:56:23Z

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, from the owner session's hand-off (hand-off line 93). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head aea059fe8840c2858d928b6d40e8a4c126619435.

Change: UC's LCWRA element, carer element and work allowance read the assessed claimants' own capability and caring, not every benefit-unit member's (UC Regs 2013 regs 22, 27–29 and 40). Budget triage item Add income-based JSA #2.
Reviews: GPT-6.1 Sol round 3 APPROVED 5ffbc6211. The hub's GPT-6.1 Sol delta review at this exact head found no model-code blocker; its one P2 was the PR body's missing Reproducer: line, which the hub added (Fix evidence then passed). Its P3, a stale docstring at test_uc_single_claim_properties.py:77, is a follow-up. Review: ~/reviews/uk-hub/reviews/uk1989/REVIEW_1989.md.
Tests at this head: 773 passed (718 YAML, cap properties 46/46, single-claim 8/8). The merge queue re-tests against current main.
Impact (Aggregate impact on certified 1.58.1): UC −£2.358bn in 2026-27 (£83.112bn → £80.754bn); child absolute poverty AHC +0.66pp (+100k children) and BHC +0.57pp. There are no new broken checks; the VAT-sign check fails identically on both sides. This corrects the model to the regulations, so it merges on the bug-fix rule (Max, 2 Oct).

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MaxGhenis and others added 7 commits October 1, 2026 09:19

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 2, 2026

Model a Universal Credit claim by a member of a couple as a single person (UC Regs 2013 reg 3(3)) #2084

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MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 2, 2026

Give Universal Credit and Housing Benefit their own benefit cap and LHA shared-accommodation rules #2089

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MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 4, 2026

Count only claimants' income in Universal Credit #1978

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Base automatically changed from uc-claimant-only-income to main October 5, 2026 02:02

juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 6, 2026

WS-E spine deferrals: known bugs and signed inconsistencies awaiting their increment PolicyEngine/microcosm#796

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MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 12, 2026 06:15

Drop the benefit cap from the changelog fragment

ffa53b2

The cap exceptions are now #2076's and #2089's. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Fix the inactive Universal Credit health-element counterfactual #2521

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MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 22, 2026 00:03

MaxGhenis changed the title ~~Give the UC LCWRA and carer elements, the work allowance and the benefit cap exceptions on the claimants' circumstances only~~ Give the UC LCWRA and carer elements and the work allowance on the claimants' circumstances only Oct 22, 2026

MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 22, 2026 04:46

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026

Merged via the queue into main with commit 7a09d41 Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the uc-claimant-only-elements branch October 22, 2026 08:55

juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

UK: track the defects uk-data is fixing that microcosm still has PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095

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Give the UC LCWRA and carer elements and the work allowance on the claimants' circumstances only - #1989

Give the UC LCWRA and carer elements and the work allowance on the claimants' circumstances only#1989
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