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Correct historical Housing Benefit pensioner allowances - #2207

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anth-volk wants to merge 4 commits into
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fix-hb-pensioner-history
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anth-volk wants to merge 4 commits into
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fix-hb-pensioner-history

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@anth-volk

@anth-volk anth-volk commented Oct 9, 2026 •

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Fixes #2206
Fixes #2230

Combines the complete changes from #2207 and #2231 into this PR: approved plan A2's historical higher pensioner allowances and B1's former under-65 category. #2231 is superseded; both tracking issues remain open until this PR merges.

Changes

Correct the three existing higher-category allowance histories for 2015–18. Single/lone-parent weekly amounts are £166.05 / £168.70 / £172.55 / £176.40; couple amounts are £248.30 / £252.30 / £258.15 / £263.80. The 2019-20 entries (£181.00 single and lone parent, £270.60 couple) are unchanged and now cite SI 2019/480 Schedule 4 and SR 2019/58 Schedule 4; main's 2020-21 and later entries are untouched.

Add the three historical under-65 parameter documents and route qualifying pension-age-regulation families by eldest claimant/partner age. Lower single/lone-parent amounts are £151.20 / £155.60 / £159.35 / £163.00; couple amounts are £230.85 / £237.55 / £243.25 / £248.80. Each document contains the amount and independently sourced GB/NI category-ending dates. Explicit zero parameter reforms remain zero.

Government citations appear at each dated value: GB 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, with matching NI 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.

GB removes the lower category on 6 December 2018, under SI 2017/1187 regulations 1 and 7. NI's 2019 replacement table removes it from 1 April 2019. The annual calculation retains the established 30-April sampling: fiscal year 2018 retains the category, 2019 no longer does. This does not reconstruct within-year age or household histories.

Update existing qualifying-age and scheme-routing regression tests: the 64-year-old HB claimant receives £155.60 × 52 = £8,091.20 in 2016 and £159.35 × 52 = £8,286.20 in 2017, not the previously asserted later-year £9,412.

Scope and dependencies

13 changed files, no new inputs. Includes both original Towncrier fragments. No change to CTR formulas, datasets, deferred child allowances or future-cohort rules.

CTR's existing formula reads the same higher-category HB parameters. Consequently its historical outputs change with this rate correction, and the matching regression assertions now reflect £8,772.40 / £8,972.60. Its existing omission of the under-65 category is not fixed here; the test comments explicitly identify those CTR outputs as an unchanged approximation rather than the statutory lower-category amounts.

#1925 and #1913 have merged; this branch now merges main (below). #2092 still edits the same three aged.yaml files (2025-26 citations and the protected-allowance uprating), so whichever of #2092 and this PR lands second needs a small merge; both keep each other's values. This consolidation eliminates the separate #2207 → #2231 merge dependency.

Merge with main after #1913 (23 Oct 2026)

Merged origin/main at a45baf5e4 into this branch with a merge commit (no rebase or force-push).

  • aged.yaml (single, couple, lone parent). Kept this PR's 2015-16 to 2018-19 values, cited the 2019-20 values as above, and kept main's 2020-21 to 2026-27 values, its lagged-CPI uprating and its references. The descriptions now say that before December 2018 (GB) and April 2019 (NI) the higher rate excluded units where the claimant and any partner were under 65.
  • housing_benefit_applicable_amount. The under-65 selector now sets the higher (pre-cutoff) allowance, and Split pension-age Housing Benefit allowances by when State Pension age was attained #1913's split then gives units where neither member attained State Pension age before 1 April 2021 the aged_from_cutoff rate. Both age limits are 0 from 2019-20 at the 30-April reading, so the selector does nothing from then on and Split pension-age Housing Benefit allowances by when State Pension age was attained #1913's routing is unchanged.
  • Historical HB tests. The 2015-19 cases in housing_benefit_pensioner_history.yaml and housing_benefit_applicable_amount.yaml now state housing_benefit_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff: true. Parameter processing backdates every parameter's first value to 2015-01-01 (BACKDATED_FROM in utils/dated_reforms.py), the 2021 cutoff included. So a unit given only eldest_claimant_or_partner_age, with no person ages, read as the post-2021 cohort and got the backdated £177.10 lower rate. All 18 of these cases failed after the merge until the cohort was stated.

Legal reading: the 2019 GB table

SI 2017/1187 reg 7(7) omits paragraph (a), the under-65 rows, of the Schedule 3 para 1 table, in force from 6 December 2018 (reg 1). The GB Up-rating Order 2019's replacement table (SI 2019/480 Sch 4) still prints the under-65 rows (£167.25 single or lone parent, £255.25 couple), while NI's (SR 2019/58 Sch 4) does not. This PR keeps the GB category ending on 6 December 2018: that date is the amendment's own, and from it everyone who had attained the qualifying age was 65 or over, so no pension-age claimant could fall in the rows the 2019 table reprints. The last cohort to attain it under 65 (women born 6 November to 5 December 1953) did so on 6 November 2018, and the next attains it on 6 March 2019 aged 65 and 3 months (Pensions Act 1995 Sch 4 para 1, as encoded in state_pension/age/day_by_birth_date.yaml). The two readings agree for every unit whose ages are consistent.

Impact

Only fiscal years 2015-16 to 2018-19 change: main read the 2019-20 rate (£181.00 / £270.60) back to 2015, and these years now get each year's own rate and, for units under 65, the lower rate. 2019-20 and later read unchanged values, so the aggregate-impact years (2025-26 on) are unaffected. CTR's pensioner allowances read the same aged parameters and change for those historical years too.

Validation

Original validation (Anthony, before the merge): 56 cases across the four YAML files, rebased on main 88ecf58b8.

After the merge (23 Oct 2026, locked env from uv sync --frozen --extra dev, policyengine-core 3.33.2, Python 3.13):

  • Policy YAML, 154 files (the HB, CTR and Pension Credit directories, every file naming HB or CTR, and every file with a 2010-2020 period): 1,844 cases pass. The first run had 18 failures, all the historical cases described above; after the fix both files pass (25 cases).
  • Python, 13 modules (HB pension-age cohorts and properties, CTR and benefit-cap pension-age properties, State Pension Credit qualifying age, September CPI uprating, DWP published rates, parameter descriptions and metadata, fiscal-year parameters, legacy benefit parameters, build metadata, uprating declarations): 1,382 passed and 61 skipped, with no failures, before I stopped a tail starved by host load. Rerun on their own: test_housing_benefit_pension_age_cohorts.py 47/47 and test_consumers_use_the_qualifying_age (births 1945-65, years 2015-2030) pass. Five Hypothesis properties in the HB pension-age, benefit-cap/CTR and CTR young-person modules, which sample 2021 and later, were not run here; CI runs them.

uvx ruff format --check . and git diff --check pass. No microsimulation run (no effect on the simulated years).

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/housing_benefit_pensioner_history.yaml::Higher pension-age single allowance in 2015

axiom: needed

@anth-volk
anth-volk force-pushed the fix-hb-pensioner-history branch from 435fc43 to 96ed76e Compare October 9, 2026 14:50
@anth-volk anth-volk changed the title Correct historical pension-age Housing Benefit allowance values Correct historical Housing Benefit pensioner allowances Oct 9, 2026
@anth-volk

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Consolidated the complete #2231 historical under-65 implementation into this PR and rebased on main. Corrected the three existing HB regression expectations; the same tests now document CTR's shared higher-rate parameter and unchanged historical category approximation. No new inputs or CTR formula changes. All four relevant YAML files passed sequentially: 5 + 26 + 12 + 13 = 56 tests. Formatting/lint and git diff --check passed. No full suite or CI polling. This PR now references both tracking issues #2206 and #2230; #2231 is superseded.

Resolves the conflicts with #1913's pension-age cohort split. The three
aged.yaml histories keep this branch's 2015-16 to 2019-20 values (now each
cited, with SI 2019/480 Sch 4 and SR 2019/58 Sch 4 for 2019-20) and main's
2020-21 to 2026-27 values, uprating and references. The applicable-amount
formula applies the historical under-65 selector to the higher allowance and
then #1913's cutoff split. The historical HB tests state the claimant's
pre-cutoff cohort, since parameter processing backdates the 2021 cutoff to
2015 and a unit given no person ages would otherwise read as the later cohort.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Hand-off: merged main after #1913 (backlog job B, 23 Oct 2026)

Head: d9b74ad88 (merge commit on top of Anthony's 96ed76ead; no rebase or force-push).

What I changed

Tests (locked env, core 3.33.2)

  • Policy YAML, 154 files (HB, CTR and Pension Credit directories plus every file with an HB/CTR reference or a 2010-2020 period): 1,844 pass.
  • Python, 13 modules: 1,382 passed, 61 skipped, 0 failed before host load starved the tail. On their own, test_housing_benefit_pension_age_cohorts.py passed 47/47 and test_consumers_use_the_qualifying_age (2015-2030) passed. Five Hypothesis properties that sample 2021 and later were not run locally (HB pension-age, benefit-cap/CTR and CTR young-person modules).
  • uvx ruff format --check . passes.

Impact: only 2015-16 to 2018-19 HB (and CTR pensioner) allowances change. 2019-20 and later read unchanged values, so the aggregate-impact years see £0.

Open items

  1. CI on d9b74ad88 is pending at the time of writing.
  2. Legal reading (my call): SI 2019/480 Sch 4 reprints the GB under-65 rows (£167.25 / £255.25) after SI 2017/1187 omitted them from 6 Dec 2018. I kept the PR's 6 Dec 2018 end. From that date everyone who had attained the qualifying age was 65 or over (the last under-65 cohort attained it on 6 Nov 2018), so both readings agree for consistent ages.
  3. Main follow-up, not changed here: Split pension-age Housing Benefit allowances by when State Pension age was attained #1913's if p.pension_age_cutoff is None branches never run from 2015, because processing backdates the 2021 cutoff. This affects housing_benefit_applicable_amount, council_tax_reduction_applicable_amount and both *_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff variables. Results are right for consistent person ages, but the documentation of housing_benefit_attained_pension_age_before_cutoff ("true for every unit" before the cutoff) does not match the code for units with no person ages.
  4. Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092 edits the same three aged.yaml files; whichever lands second needs a small merge.
  5. CTR's own historical under-65 category is still not modelled (already stated in the PR).
  6. Independent review: the hub's to dispatch at this head. axiom: needed stands.

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base c65bced644 against head f79a7c228f, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main c65bced644 uk 2.148.3 (files d7572c3e5c6c), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 31784e87dc6a d4c1e9f08160 1554.3s
head #2207 merged into main f79a7c228f uk 2.148.3 (files 7dfbdd3c5741), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 31784e87dc6a d4c1e9f08160 1546.69s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,226k 3,245k 3,264k 3,281k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
Government spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.39bn £567.58bn £589.79bn £614.24bn £640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £537.04bn £558.54bn £580.51bn £604.69bn £631.05bn
gov_spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
household_benefits £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
gov_balance £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.67bn † £1,705.92bn † £1,739.31bn † £1,773.51bn † £1,809.65bn † £1,851.24bn † £1,902.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,544.54bn £1,577.63bn £1,611.73bn £1,650.77bn £1,701.20bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.8% 22.0% 21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.2% 31.3% 31.7% 32.2% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.1% 31.0% 31.0% 31.1% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,858k 11,007k 11,103k 11,238k 11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,267k 3,285k 3,319k 3,371k 3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,071k 6,182k 6,234k 6,302k 6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,519k 1,540k 1,550k 1,566k 1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 14,956k 15,179k 15,479k 15,741k 15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,709k 4,752k 4,834k 4,930k 4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,796k 8,942k 9,125k 9,271k 9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,452k 1,485k 1,520k 1,539k 1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,528k 11,641k 11,552k 11,677k 11,832k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,543k 3,556k 3,491k 3,522k 3,593k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,359k 6,462k 6,453k 6,536k 6,596k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,627k 1,623k 1,608k 1,619k 1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,915k 14,985k 15,110k 15,227k 15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,698k 4,701k 4,731k 4,765k 4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,769k 8,885k 8,981k 9,056k 9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,448k 1,398k 1,398k 1,405k 1,516k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3067 0.3074 0.3079 0.3085 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £18,026 † £18,059 † £18,395 † £18,583 † £18,743 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,134 † £29,089 † £28,825 † £29,239 † £29,564 † £29,945 † £30,476 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,264 † £36,779 † £37,076 † £37,626 † £38,511 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £42,036 † £42,777 † £43,509 † £44,366 † £44,673 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £46,119 † £46,804 † £47,819 † £48,805 † £49,921 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,906 † £51,593 † £52,132 † £53,429 † £54,829 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,356 † £57,547 † £58,429 † £59,170 † £60,256 † £60,799 † £62,484 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,736 † £73,017 † £74,372 † £75,880 † £77,602 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,308 † £84,528 † £86,191 † £87,657 † £90,676 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,670 † £126,895 † £129,221 † £132,115 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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Route historical under-65 pensioner Housing Benefit allowances separately Correct 2015–2018 higher pension-age Housing Benefit allowances

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