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Add Housing Benefit permitted-work earnings disregard - #2219

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anth-volk wants to merge 3 commits into
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anth-volk wants to merge 3 commits into
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@anth-volk

@anth-volk anth-volk commented Oct 9, 2026 •

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Fixes #2218

Adds the approved pre-assessed annual Housing Benefit permitted-work disregard. The supplied amount replaces the ordinary earnings disregard, retains a higher lone-parent amount, is capped at net earnings, and leaves the additional and accommodation disregards separately conditional. The statutory earnings, work and partner-allocation limits are assessed externally, not inferred from gross work income.

Government sources embedded in code: GB working-age Schedule 4 paragraph 10A, GB pension-age paragraph 5A, and the matching NI working-age and pension-age provisions.

Approved plan C6 only: four files, one GBP input. No dataset mapping has been verified. Missing/zero input preserves the ordinary-disregard approximation and can understate qualifying awards; public variable documentation explains this. No new ESA or permitted-work eligibility engine.

Validation (UK hub, 28 Oct, head a67175429 after merging main 6030cbc0b): housing_benefit_permitted_work.yaml 37/37 passed (the 32 original cases plus 5 new); the HB applicable-income YAML directory 182/182 passed; the 13 HB Python test files plus test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py 161/161 passed with -n 2, none skipped. test_pension_age_and_working_age_schedules_agree and the extended test_selected_standard_has_statutory_precedence_and_is_capped_at_net_earnings also passed when rerun alone. The YAML covers GB/NI and both regulation sets, replacement, lone-parent precedence, low earnings, additional-disregard equality and failure, accommodation, parameter reform, passport and replacement of the special standard amount; the new cases add special eligibility derived from SDA or blindness, and a lone parent at the permitted-work maximum. ruff format ., ruff check . and git diff --check are clean. No full suite, population simulation or dataset-loading test was run. Earlier (9 Oct, core 3.32.13): the 32 original YAML cases and the six special-disregard tests passed on the composed branch.

Merge dependency: #2225 (special standard disregard) merged on 25 Oct, and this branch has main merged in (a60062f0e). The childcare and first-year accommodation changes (#2229, #2234) follow this replacement.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 queued
The special and permitted-work earnings disregards extension to rulespec-uk#375, with the law, required outputs and companion tests: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 (comment) (UK hub, 24 Oct).

@MaxGhenis

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Parent-gated build hand-off. Head remains a66b990b52a468d2182d3154cbcbf8da66982b1a; no branch changes, push or retarget. Immediate parent #2225 is still OPEN/unmerged at 6e68f23fafef3a1e0a1718bd5d1e4bc0fa860c72 (checked 22 October). Root #2211 has a local reconciliation awaiting the required disk gate: #2211 (comment)

Tests for this child: 0 executed in this job; no claim is made about the current head's CI. Preserve Anthony's corrected disabled-worker earnings-disregard regression (£1,929.20) when updating the base. Draft status unchanged; no merge/readiness/closure action.

Once #2225 lands, the pending commands are:

git fetch origin main add-hb-permitted-work
git switch add-hb-permitted-work  # create tracking branch if absent
git merge --no-ff origin/main
# Resolve, run focused foreground tests with -n 2 after load1 <=110 and
# os.statvfs available disk >=55 GB decimal; commit fixes and push once.
gh api -X PATCH repos/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pulls/2219 -f base=main

Open items: parent landing; merge/test/push/body refresh as needed; retarget; hub independent review. #2229 remains gated on this PR's landing.

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Reviewed at a66b990b52a468d2182d3154cbcbf8da66982b1a, limited to the permitted-work change over its stacked parent. No actionable findings from independent policy/source and code reviews.

The component replaces the selected ordinary disregard, preserves a higher lone-parent amount and caps the result at earnings. Its external pre-assessment contract matches the GB working-age rule and corresponding GB pension-age/NI provisions. It does not infer qualifying work or partner allocation from generic flags.

Validation:39 focused tests passed. An eligible claimed-HB integration raises the final award from£6477.90 to£10208.90 when the external£6000 assessment is supplied, exactly65% of the£5740 replacement difference; passport and cap effects were excluded. The documented upstream-assessment coverage limitation and stacked-parent merge order remain.

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 28, 2026 00:38
Brings in #2225 as merged (5086896, head 05246aa) and later main.
This branch was stacked on #2225's e70d955, and no commit on main since
then touches housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.py, so git
merged it without a conflict. The merged file keeps main's #2225 logic
(housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard, with its eligibility routes
and net-earnings cap) and applies this branch's permitted-work
replacement on top of it, before the accommodation and additional
amounts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…standard's docs

Adds what #2225's delta review (section 6) said this PR owes now that
#2225 has merged:

- GB and NI pension-age YAML regressions where the special £20 comes from
  severe disablement allowance or blindness (derived by
  housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard_eligible) and a pre-assessed
  permitted-work amount is above zero. Each pins the selected standard at
  £1,040 and the applied disregard at £4,160, not £5,200: SI 2006/214
  Sch 4 para 5A(2) and SR 2006/406 Sch 5 para 5A(2) exclude para 5.
- A lone parent at the permitted-work maximum, England and NI: the
  £183.50 reg 45(4) limit (16 x £11.44, rounded up) beats para 4's £25,
  so £9,542 is disregarded, capped at net earnings.
- A permitted-work draw in the selected-standard Hypothesis property. It
  checks the selected standard ignores permitted work, and the applied
  disregard is min(net, permitted), or for a lone parent
  min(net, max(permitted, £1,300)), never stacked.
- housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard's documentation now says it
  is the amount before permitted work, which
  housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard replaces. The formula is
  unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Hub hand-off: main merged, #2225's owed tests added

New head: a67175429937ed802f7817fb9e772eac06ec0217. It fast-forwards from Anthony's a66b990b5 with two commits:

  • a60062f0e: a real merge of main 6030cbc0b.
  • a67175429: tests and documentation.

No force-push or rebase. The PR is still a draft, and I made no review, merge or readiness change.

The merge and its conflict resolution

There was no textual conflict. This branch was stacked on #2225's e70d95531. No commit on main since then touches any of this PR's four files, housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.py included (git log e70d95531..origin/main -- <files> is empty). That includes #2225's own later commits through its merged head 05246aa1d. So git took this branch's version of that file, and git merge-tree is clean.

What the merged formula now does:

  • It keeps main's Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 logic unchanged:
    • housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard selects the standard amount: lone parent £25, then special £20, then couple £10, then single £5, capped at net earnings.
    • Its eligibility comes from housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard_eligible. That covers the pension-age SDA, AA, DLA, PIP and AFIP receipts, blindness, disability WTC (award and element) and carer premium, plus the working-age premium route.
    • Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225's later commits, through 05246aa1d (the CTR oracle fix, the disabled-single pin and an eligibility docstring), touched only files this PR doesn't.
  • It then applies the permitted-work replacement, min(net, max(permitted, is_lone_parent × standard)) when permitted > 0, before the accommodation and additional amounts. That ordering is unchanged from Anthony's commit.
  • Anthony's corrected £1,929.20 disabled-worker regression (6e68f23fa, in housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.yaml) is on main and passes, as part of the 182/182 directory run below.

Added tests (from #2225's delta review §6)

The arithmetic is written into the YAML comments. The law is SI 2006/214 Sch 4 paras 5 and 5A and SR 2006/406 Sch 5 paras 5 and 5A, fetched from legislation.gov.uk today. The specified amount comes from ESA Regs 2008 reg 45(4) and (9A), SR 2008/280 reg 45(4) and (9A), and SI 1995/311 reg 17(4) and (10). For 2024-25 it is 16 × £11.44 (the model's adult minimum wage), rounded up to the next 50p: £183.50 a week.

In each couple case, A does exempt work for £60 a week and B earns £100 a week from other work. Under para 5A(4), B's disregard is the smallest of £100, £183.50 − £60 and £20, which is £20. So the permitted amount is (£60 + £20) × 52 = £4,160, and net earnings are £8,320.

  1. England and NI, pension-age SDA recipient (A) in exempt work.
    • Eligibility is derived: para 5(1)(a)(ii).
    • It pins the selected standard at £1,040 and the applied disregard at £4,160. The applied amount is not £5,200 (stacked) and not £1,040. Para 5A(2) says paras 1 to 5 and 7 do not apply.
  2. England and NI, pension-age blind claimant (B) whose partner (A, 63) is on contributory ESA in reg 45(4) exempt work.
    • Eligibility is derived from blindness alone: para 5(1)(b). Neither member gets SDA.
    • The expected values are the same.
  3. Lone parent at the permitted-work maximum, England and NI, working age.
    • The permitted amount is £183.50 × 52 = £9,542. That is not less than para 4's £25, so the para 10A(2) proviso does not apply, and £9,542 is disregarded.
    • With net earnings of £9,282, the disregard is capped at £9,282.
    • The result holds whether or not the family is special-eligible. The selected standard stays at £1,300.
  4. A permitted-work draw in test_selected_standard_has_statutory_precedence_and_is_capped_at_net_earnings. The draws are 0, £1,040, £1,299.99, £1,300, £1,300.01, £9,542, and any pence amount up to £20,000. The @example grid is 4 shapes × 10 nets × 2 flags × 7 permitted amounts. With every other term held at nil, the test asserts:
    • the selected standard is unchanged by permitted work;
    • the applied disregard is min(net, permitted), or for a lone parent min(net, max(permitted, £1,300));
    • it lies between 0 and net;
    • it never exceeds the larger of the two amounts, so they never stack.
  5. Documentation, not a move. housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard now says it is the amount before permitted work, and that housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard replaces it. The formula is unchanged. Why this rather than moving the replacement into it:

Test results (local, this head's tree; run_capped.py --rss-gb 4, one process at a time)

Run Result
housing_benefit_permitted_work.yaml 37/37 passed (32 original + 5 new)
HB applicable_income/ YAML directory 182/182 passed
13 test_housing_benefit_*/test_hb_* files + CTR pensioner-disregard properties, -n 2 -m "not microsimulation" 161/161 passed, none skipped (20m29s)
test_pension_age_and_working_age_schedules_agree + the extended selected-standard property, alone 2/2 passed
ruff format ., ruff check ., git diff --check clean

I ran no microsimulation, dataset-loading test or full suite.

Mutation check. I applied each mutant to the formula's max_(…) term and restored the file afterwards (git diff on it is empty):

  • Stacking (permitted + standard): killed.
    • 27/37 YAML cases fail, including all four new SDA and blindness cases (£5,200 against £4,160).
    • The property fails on an explicit example, ('single', 520, False, 500).
    • The lone-parent maximum cases don't kill this mutant, because net earnings cap them at the limit.
  • Max with the special £20 (max_(permitted, standard)): killed.
    • Only by Anthony's first case (£1,040 against £500) and by the property, ('single', 520, True, 500).
    • The new cases don't kill it, and that is expected. With lawful inputs the specified amount is at least £20 (reg 45(2), reg 17(2)), so replacement and max coincide for real cases.

CI: run 40636400501 and siblings started on a67175429 and were pending when I posted this. Lint, Changes and Changelog fragments had passed. mergeable is MERGEABLE, and the merge state is BLOCKED while checks run.

Still owed

  • CI. Test / Result and the Aggregate impact need to finish green on a67175429.
  • The PR body's "Merge dependency" paragraph is stale. Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 merged on 25 Oct. I left it alone because I only updated the Validation paragraph. The base is already main, so the retarget step in the 22 Oct comment is moot.
  • An independent review of this head, then a ruling on readiness. Draft status, merge and reviews are untouched.
  • NI SDA case: the NI exempt-work limit is unverified. It is in SR 1995/41 reg 17(4). legislation.gov.uk's revised text of that regulation still lists unapplied amendments, so I didn't check £183.50 against it. That case's £4,160 is a supplied pre-assessed amount. The GB SDA case and both blindness cases rest on text I did fetch (SI 1995/311 reg 17; SI 2008/794 and SR 2008/280 reg 45).
  • A model gap I noticed but did not change. At working age, the model takes the disability premium only from is_disabled_for_benefits, but SI 2006/213 Sch 3 para 13(1)(a)(i) also lists SDA receipt. A working-age SDA recipient without that flag therefore misses the premium and the £20 route. With a positive permitted-work input, para 10A(2) makes the £20 irrelevant, but the premium gap stands.
  • Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229 and Apply Housing Benefit accommodation disregards from their start date #2234 still need to merge this head. Limit Housing Benefit childcare to qualifying charges and earnings residuals #2229 is stacked on this branch. I didn't touch either.
  • Axiom: the line still reads TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 queued. The new cases' externally derived values (£4,160, £9,542) could join that issue's companion tests.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 6030cbc0ba against head 13ee9462b1, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 6030cbc0ba uk 2.162.14 (files d25750c1b916), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 d254d556bf69 4f86ac4248d9 1880.88s
head #2219 merged into main 13ee9462b1 uk 2.162.14 (files d692feae93a1), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 d254d556bf69 4f86ac4248d9 1912.12s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.91bn £8.21bn £8.43bn £8.63bn £8.85bn £9.10bn £9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.18bn £2.32bn £2.46bn £2.60bn £2.74bn £2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
Government spending £528.96bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.37bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.86bn † £398.03bn † £428.43bn † £455.78bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
household_tax £496.91bn £527.60bn £554.51bn £577.74bn £603.32bn £627.65bn £654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.96bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.37bn †
household_benefits £528.96bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.37bn †
gov_balance £369.86bn † £398.03bn † £428.43bn † £455.78bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.72bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.43bn † £1,688.69bn † £1,719.55bn † £1,750.61bn † £1,781.67bn † £1,821.07bn † £1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.30bn £1,504.48bn £1,537.58bn £1,569.36bn £1,602.66bn £1,640.48bn £1,687.04bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.4% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.4% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 13.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.3% 16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.7% 22.8% 23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.1% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 30.8% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,049k 10,466k 10,736k 10,860k 10,960k 11,054k 11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,580k 3,171k 3,211k 3,220k 3,261k 3,305k 3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,845k 5,746k 6,022k 6,123k 6,169k 6,209k 6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,847k 14,422k 14,808k 14,994k 15,242k 15,402k 15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,671k 4,685k 4,757k 4,814k 4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,406k 8,359k 8,732k 8,898k 9,024k 9,114k 9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,404k 1,411k 1,460k 1,475k 1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,896k 11,403k 11,468k 11,487k 11,391k 11,468k 11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,918k 3,523k 3,519k 3,491k 3,435k 3,458k 3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,202k 6,136k 6,338k 6,400k 6,368k 6,415k 6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,588k 1,595k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,957k 14,597k 14,698k 14,825k 14,951k 15,042k 15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,976k 4,677k 4,630k 4,634k 4,690k 4,712k 4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,443k 8,455k 8,680k 8,847k 8,916k 8,977k 9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,465k 1,388k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,464k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3085 0.3059 0.3065 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,781 † £17,906 † £17,832 † £17,905 † £18,142 † £18,339 † £18,482 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,963 † £28,917 † £28,654 † £28,906 † £29,096 † £29,646 † £30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,381 † £35,463 † £36,065 † £36,509 † £36,851 † £37,338 † £38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,785 † £40,713 † £41,873 † £42,413 † £43,144 † £43,906 † £44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,788 † £44,626 † £45,606 † £46,288 † £47,327 † £48,285 † £49,710 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,210 † £49,525 † £50,736 † £51,914 † £52,203 † £53,174 † £54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,219 † £57,224 † £57,764 † £58,010 † £59,040 † £60,061 † £61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,150 † £70,533 † £71,800 † £73,075 † £74,092 † £75,540 † £77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,490 † £81,421 † £82,828 † £84,135 † £85,539 † £87,053 † £89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,581 † £120,296 † £121,933 † £124,163 † £126,045 † £128,342 † £131,110 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.23bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.61bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.05bn £-3.18bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.38bn £-3.42bn £-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.05bn £3.18bn £3.29bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.48bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

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Add the Housing Benefit permitted-work earnings disregard

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