Place the Universal Credit and Pension Credit qualifying young person terminal date from the date of birth by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2300 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-11T12:45:05Z

Stacked on #2279. Do not merge before it. This PR builds on #2279's Pension Credit qualifying young person. Until #2279 merges, the diff here also shows its commits. This PR's own commits:

git log -p --no-merges origin/qyp-terminal-date-19 ^origin/main ^origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

Summary

A young person in non-advanced education or approved training is a qualifying young person (QYP) "up to, but not including, the 1st September following their 19th birthday". The model treated a 19-year-old three ways:

Where	19-year-old at school, course begun before 19
Universal Credit, household calculation	not a QYP: the terminal-date input defaulted to false
Universal Credit, microdata	a QYP: policyengine-uk-data sets that input true for every 19-year-old in qualifying education or training
Pension Credit, everywhere	a QYP: no terminal-date condition at all

This PR places the date from the date of birth for both programmes. Against its base (main 4d80b29 with #2279 merged), 2026-27, a lone parent aged 45 with a 19-year-old at school (scratch/probe_D_base_vs_branch.txt; the same on main 9475c95 before #2285):

Variable	Base	This PR
`is_qualifying_young_person_for_universal_credit` (the 19-year-old)	false	true
`uc_individual_child_element`	£0	£4,222.56 (£351.88 × 12)
`is_uc_work_allowance_eligible`	false	true
`is_qualifying_young_person_for_pension_credit`	true	true

This is a follow-up from #2279 (its items "Pension Credit reg. 4A(1)(b)'s 1 September" and the Universal Credit default).

The law

UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1): "A person who has reached the age of 16 but not the age of 20 is a qualifying young person for the purposes of Part 1 of the Act and these Regulations— (a) up to, but not including, the 1st September following their 16th birthday; and (b) up to, but not including, the 1st September following their 19th birthday, if they are enrolled on, or accepted for, approved training or a course of education [...]".
SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(b): "up to, but not including, the 1st September following the person's 19th birthday, if the person is enrolled on, or accepted for, approved training or a course of education [...]".

Change

New date fact is_before_first_september_following_19th_birthday (Person, year): true when the fiscal year starts (6 April) before the 1 September following the 19th birthday. It reads date_of_birth, or age and months_since_last_birthday, through utils.dates.birth_day, and mirrors Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279's 16th-birthday fact.
Universal Credit. is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date was an input with default_value = False. It now has a formula that returns the date fact. A dataset or situation can still set it.
Defaults. The date fact, the Universal Credit variable and the Pension Credit condition all default to true (see "Setting the date for one person" below).
Pension Credit. New meets_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date_condition_for_pension_credit (under 19, or the date fact), required by the education route in is_qualifying_young_person_for_pension_credit, with a new parameter terminal_date_age_limit (19).

The annual approximation

The period ends on a fixed 1 September that an annual period cannot split. As in #2279, a year counts if any of it falls in the period, which is the same as the year starting before that 1 September.

Every 19-year-old (age on 6 October) counts. Their 19th birthday falls between 7 October of the year before and 6 October, so the following 1 September is in the year or the next, always after 6 April.
A 20-year-old born from 1 September to 6 October is before the date until 31 August, but the QYP age limit, read on 6 October, already excludes them. The fact is true for them and changes nothing (YAML Case 7).
Nobody is newly excluded. The fact is false only for people aged 20 or over on 6 October.

So the default matches what the microdata and Pension Credit did already. Set either variable to false for a 19-year-old whose 1 September has passed.

Setting the date for one person

The review of this PR found that setting the date fact for one person gave everyone else in the situation false: an input set for some people fills the others with the variable's default and skips its formula for them. A second 19-year-old student then silently lost both statuses.

The fact's formula gives true for everyone under 20 on 6 October, which is everyone the age limit lets be a QYP. So each of the three variables now defaults to true. Setting one for some people leaves everyone else under 20 where the formula puts them. For someone older the default is true where the formula says false, but every reader of these variables is behind the QYP age limit, which excludes them first. Property test: the formula is true for every age 0 to 19 and every month since the last birthday, in three years, and each variable's default is true; and in a household of two 19-year-old students with each variable set false for the first only, the second stays a QYP for both programmes. YAML Case 12 pins the same household.

Setting both layers. The round 2 review found a crossed case: the date fact set false for one student and a programme variable (Universal Credit's terminal date, or Pension Credit's condition) set false for another. The programme variable then gives the first student its default, true, not their date fact, so the first becomes eligible again for that programme. No default can keep a formula for people left unset, so both programme variables now say so: when setting both, set the programme variable for every person whose status matters. A crossed test shows the hazard and the documented use for each programme, and invariant 5 is qualified to one variable at a time.

Two YAML cases changed with it. Case 3's parent, not set, now shows the default (true) for the Universal Credit variable; nothing reads it for a 45-year-old. And child_qualifying_young_person.yaml's "aged 19 requires being before terminal date" case left its after-the-date student unset and relied on the old false default; it now sets that input to false explicitly. #2279 documents the same partial-input behaviour for its 16th-birthday fact, whose formula is not true for everyone it could default for.

Invariants

The date fact is true exactly when the year starts before the 1 September following the 19th birthday, for every date of birth, against calendar arithmetic that shares no code with the model.
Universal Credit's terminal-date variable follows the fact unless set, and setting it changes Universal Credit only.
Over every combination of age, education, training, apprenticeship, own-right benefits, entry age and the two date facts, Universal Credit and Pension Credit agree, and both equal the regulation's conditions.
With the 19th-birthday fact on, both statuses are the earlier definition without a terminal date; switching it on never removes the status; it matters only for a 19-year-old in education or training.
The formula is true for everyone under 20 on 6 October, and true is each terminal-date variable's default, so setting one of them for some people leaves everyone else's status as it would be with nothing set. That holds one variable at a time; with the date fact also set, the programme variable must be set for everyone whose status matters (the crossed test).

Tests

Properties, new test_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date_properties.py:
- invariants 1 and 2 for every date of birth from 2004 to 2009 (2,192 people, ages 16 to 22 on 6 October 2026), with the 31 August and 1 September edges asserted, and again on Hypothesis-drawn dates of birth and years;
- invariants 3 and 4 over 6,144 combinations;
- invariant 2 for each programme's input set against the fact;
- invariant 5: every age 0 to 25 and month since the last birthday, in 2022, 2026 and 2030, and the mixed household.
YAML, new qualifying_young_person_terminal_date.yaml, twelve cases hand-computed (2026-27):

Case	Facts	Expected
1	lone parent 45, 19-year-old at school	UC and PC QYP; child element £351.88 × 12 = £4,222.56; work allowance
2	as 1, UC input false	UC not a QYP, element £0; PC still a QYP
3	as 1, date fact false	neither
4	pensioner 70, 19-year-old at school	PC first-child addition £81.07 × 52 = £4,215.64
5	as 4, date fact false	addition £0
6	born 31 August 2007	the period ends on the 19th birthday, in the year: QYP
7	born 15 September 2006, aged 20 on 6 October	fact true; not a QYP (age)
8	born 31 August 2006	the date was in 2025: fact false
9	19, course begun at 19	not a QYP (reg. 5(2); reg. 4A(2))
10	19, outside education	not a QYP
11	born 1 September 2006: the 1 September following the 19th birthday is in 2026	fact true, but aged 20 on 6 October: not a QYP
12	pensioner 70, two 19-year-olds at school, the fact set false for the first only	the second takes the default (true): a QYP for both programmes; the first for neither

Mutation checks, each applied alone in a copy of the branch (YAML cases and property tests that fail):

Mutation	YAML cases	Property tests
The year compared with `>` and not `>=`	1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11	both calendar tests
A 1 September birthday read as its own "1 September following"	11	the every-date-of-birth test
The 18th birthday in place of the 19th	1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11	both calendar tests
Pension Credit's terminal condition dropped	3, 5	the agreement grid; the input-override test
The Universal Credit variable back to a false default	1, 6	both calendar tests; the agreement grid

The 1 September mutation was first caught by the property test alone; Case 11 was added to pin it in YAML.

Run locally at b5cbd2e:

policyengine-core test on the 5 YAML files the branch changes against main (Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279's included): 49 passed. At 6f6e7de, the five YAML files that set these variables: 53 passed.
pytest on the 4 Python test files it changes against main: 34 passed.
The whole stack at 62e9317 (Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests #2387, Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279 and the Child Benefit, CTC, terminal-date and Income Support follow-ups): policyengine-core test on the 248 YAML files that mention these programmes, 2,685 passed; pytest on the 135 Python test files that mention them, 1,930 passed, 1 xfailed and 6 failed. Four were the benefit cap property oracle (fixed on Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education #2299, 8a5980c) and two a test generator on Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279 (fixed there, 560005c); both files pass at End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302's head 98a4739 (64 passed).
ruff format --check and ruff check on policyengine_uk: clean.

Round 2 mutations at b5cbd2e (mutation/prD_r2.txt): each default put back to false fails the two new property tests; the date fact's also fails YAML Cases 3 and 12.

The full suites run in CI.

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

The report runs main a8b2848 against this PR merged into it (bfb108d) on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1), one full run per side for each year 2025-26 to 2031-32. Result: pass, 0 checks broken, no moves flagged. No household's net income changes in any year, and no receipt, spending, poverty or inequality figure moves. The one moved figure, the standard reform costing "Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%" (−£1.6m to −£2.2m a year), is #2279's: #2279's own report is identical to this one, line for line, so this PR's own change moves nothing. The commit since then changes tests only (#2279's test generator), so the report carries over to the current head.

Local runs

Real runs on Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (uk-data 1.58.0, sha256 5ba399ea5ab9a6c7), one run each for 2025-26 to 2030-31, exact comparison of every record. Base: main e01f2f5 with #2279 (9d2fadb) merged (local merge 006c0e813). Branch: b5cbd2e. Outputs: impact/prD_r2/.

No record changes in any year, in any of the Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit, benefit cap, net income or poverty outputs. The reason is the data: policyengine-uk-data supplies is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date, true for the 102 records aged 19 in qualifying education in 2026-27, and a supplied input takes precedence over the new formula (impact/prD_r1/context.txt, on the earlier base). The new date fact is true for all 780 records aged 19 that year, so the Pension Credit condition removes no one either. The PR changes household calculations (the table at the top) and any dataset that does not supply the input.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date_properties.py::test_universal_credit_and_pension_credit_agree_on_every_combination

axiom: UC reg 5(1)(b) is encoded at uk:regulations/uksi/2013/376/5#continued_education_or_training_qualifying_condition, but no companion case sets the 19th-birthday input false; the cases are queued on TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#355 (addendum; test-only, waiting on TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#446, which has the file open). SPC reg 4A(1)(b) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#360 queued (addendum; reg 4A's row is in an unreleased ingest and a billed encoder run needs approval)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…ducation condition UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(a) and SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(a) make a person who has reached 16 a qualifying young person up to the 1 September following their 16th birthday, whatever their education. The model encoded only the education route, so a 16-year-old outside education was not a UC or PC qualifying young person. is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday places that date from the date of birth and counts the route for a year that starts (6 April) before it: every annual age of 16, and a 17-year-old born from 1 September to 6 October. Both QYP variables OR it with the education route, under the same age band and own-right benefits exclusion. Tests: YAML cases hand-computed from the regulations (flags, date edges, UC child element and work allowance, PC child addition), the property-test oracle, a calendar differential over every birth date in 2008-2011 and across years, and a grid test of sufficiency, monotonicity, exclusion and UC/PC agreement. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…p-terminal-date-19

UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(b) and SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(b) keep a young person in education or training a qualifying young person up to, but not including, the 1 September following their 19th birthday. - Universal Credit read the date from an input that defaulted to false, so a 19-year-old at school was not a qualifying young person in a household calculation, while the microdata sets the input true for every 19-year-old in education. - Pension Credit did not model the date at all. Add is_before_first_september_following_19th_birthday, which counts a year that starts before the date, as the 16th-birthday fact does. is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date now follows it unless set, and Pension Credit's new terminal date condition reads it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Two property tests build a member who is outside every programme's family as a 16 to 19 year old not in education. At 16 that member is now a UC qualifying young person under reg 5(1)(a), so the family's UC gains a child element and the tests' premise no longer holds. Their generators now set is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false for that member. The test functions are unchanged, so Hypothesis draws the same examples. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…p-terminal-date-19 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

A mutation that read a 19th birthday on 1 September as its own "1 September following" was caught by the calendar property test only. Case 11 pins the edge in YAML too. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…date-of-birth tests - The route variable's docs now warn that setting it for some people gives everyone else false, and point to date_of_birth for placing one person. They also state that the rule departs from the 6 October reading that is_SP_age uses. - YAML: a 2025-26 case where the 16-year-old ranks first under the two-child limit and the youngest child loses the element (GBP 7,581.72), and a case mixing a person with date_of_birth and one without (both in the route). The second kills a mutant that reads the raw date_of_birth input instead of birth_day. - means_test_income_members.yaml: the 17-year-old case's name says why they are outside the route. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…r 20 Review round 1 of #2300: setting the 19th-birthday fact for one person gave everyone else in the situation false (the default), so another 19-year-old student silently lost the Pension Credit and Universal Credit status. The formula gives true for everyone under 20 on 6 October, which is everyone the age limit lets be a qualifying young person, so true is now the default for the fact and for the two terminal-date variables that read it. A partial setting then leaves everyone else where the formula puts them. Tested from age alone for ages 0 to 25 and all months, and in a mixed household (property test and YAML Case 12). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Case 3's parent, not set, now takes the default (true): harmless, since every reader is behind the qualifying young person age limit. The older child_qualifying_young_person.yaml case left its after-terminal-date person unset and relied on the old false default; it now sets the input explicitly. The docstrings now say the default is the formula's value under 20 and that older people are excluded before it is read. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb and main e01f2f5 with it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in main e01f2f5. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in #2300's round 1 fixes and main e01f2f5. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T01:13:11Z

UK hub takeover for the Budget fix sprint (Max, 21 Oct). The owner session local_1b6fef51 has been idle since mid-October. The hub woke it on 21 Oct at 23:58Z, and it did not start. To land this before the Budget model locks (the first pe-uk release cut by about 12:00Z Thu 22 Oct), the hub has taken it over as build 20261021-211254-sprint-2300-2302, which merges main, re-tests, pushes as a fast-forward and marks it ready. The hub then reviews it and lands it through the merge queue.

If the owner session wakes, please don't push to this branch; comment here instead, so there's only one writer.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T01:17:37Z

UK hub: takeover withdrawn. The owner session has been woken (22 Oct 01:25Z) and is finishing this PR itself, so the hub's build is cancelled. One writer: the owner session.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

# Conflicts: # policyengine_uk/tests/test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py

#2089 replaced the shared is_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate with is_uc_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate and its Housing Benefit counterpart. The lone-parent case asserts the UC rate, which is still false: the 16-year-old outside education is a qualifying young person the claimant is responsible for. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Review round 2 of #2300: a programme-level terminal-date variable set for one person gives everyone else its default (true), not their date fact, so a student whose date fact was set false became eligible again. No default can keep the formula for people left unset, so the two programme variables now say so and tell users setting both to set the programme variable for everyone whose status matters. Invariant 5 is qualified, and a crossed test shows both the hazard and the documented use, for each programme. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in #2300's round 2 changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-10-22T02:54:28Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 582b86315c against head 7b39e615d2, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£1.6m	-£1.6m	-£1.7m	-£1.7m	-£2.1m	-£2.1m	-£2.2m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£1.6m	+£1.6m	+£1.7m	+£1.7m	+£2.1m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `582b86315c`	uk 2.146.1 (files `792e7aaf1a15`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`5d40da9d9749`	`f210f83d5be4`	1519.54s
head	#2300 merged into main `7b39e615d2`	uk 2.146.1 (files `46a381406008`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`5d40da9d9749`	`f210f83d5be4`	1553.97s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.81bn	£83.11bn	£84.93bn	£86.69bn	£87.61bn	£89.03bn	£90.35bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,092k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£363.15bn †	£388.79bn †	£419.61bn †	£445.77bn †	£473.51bn †	£501.23bn †	£532.93bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.31bn	£1,012.51bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.73bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.75bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
household_benefits	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
gov_balance	£366.28bn †	£391.92bn †	£422.74bn †	£448.90bn †	£476.64bn †	£504.36bn †	£536.06bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,657.86bn †	£1,706.28bn †	£1,737.92bn †	£1,772.02bn †	£1,808.10bn †	£1,849.73bn †	£1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.42bn	£1,513.06bn	£1,545.11bn	£1,578.08bn	£1,612.09bn	£1,651.13bn	£1,701.58bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.0%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.9%	22.2%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.1%	30.3%	30.9%	31.1%	31.7%	32.3%	32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.9%	15.0%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.9%	14.4%	14.7%	14.3%	14.3%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	21.9%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	31.6%	31.0%	31.1%	31.3%	31.6%	32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	12.8%	13.0%	12.7%	12.9%	13.2%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,056k	10,435k	10,856k	10,960k	11,091k	11,220k	11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,862k	5,735k	6,068k	6,164k	6,235k	6,314k	6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,663k	14,366k	14,907k	15,144k	15,491k	15,755k	15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,809k	4,556k	4,676k	4,719k	4,835k	4,939k	4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,333k	8,326k	8,775k	8,931k	9,122k	9,275k	9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,780k	11,464k	11,523k	11,660k	11,708k	11,832k	11,879k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,506k	3,524k	3,542k	3,554k	3,565k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,356k	6,464k	6,530k	6,636k	6,628k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,786k	1,766k	1,661k	1,673k	1,636k	1,643k	1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,110k	14,866k	14,956k	15,109k	15,281k	15,513k	15,696k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,948k	4,756k	4,684k	4,715k	4,771k	4,840k	4,916k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,531k	8,560k	8,793k	8,917k	9,054k	9,187k	9,257k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,631k	1,551k	1,479k	1,477k	1,456k	1,486k	1,523k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3066	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3095

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,700 †	£17,996 †	£17,934 †	£17,991 †	£18,328 †	£18,506 †	£18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,323 †	£29,102 †	£28,705 †	£28,983 †	£29,330 †	£29,734 †	£30,317 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,629 †	£35,807 †	£36,445 †	£37,019 †	£37,221 †	£37,811 †	£38,492 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,334 †	£40,803 †	£41,758 †	£42,693 †	£43,435 †	£44,025 †	£44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,856 †	£46,150 †	£47,077 †	£47,439 †	£48,027 †	£49,181 †	£50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,334 †	£50,290 †	£51,174 †	£52,167 †	£52,953 †	£54,205 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,319 †	£57,568 †	£58,473 †	£59,423 †	£60,149 †	£61,621 †	£62,893 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,267 †	£70,356 †	£71,672 †	£72,810 †	£74,351 †	£75,797 †	£77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,648 †	£81,992 †	£83,192 †	£84,486 †	£86,056 †	£87,570 †	£90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,618 †	£120,489 †	£122,421 †	£124,552 †	£126,802 †	£129,073 †	£131,887 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.21bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.29bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

#2549 added other_members_with_awards ("As other_members") for the young singles and working parents properties. It draws a 16-60-year-old outside education, but unlike other_members it did not set is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false. A drawn 16-year-old was therefore a UC qualifying young person, so the family changed. In the shrunk case, a single 19-year-old in Wales with GBP 12,000 earnings, housing_benefit_applicable_income went from GBP 11,740 to 0, and the two properties failed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…p-terminal-date-19

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T04:03:36Z

Parked until after the 28 October Budget under the UK hub's Budget triage (04:10Z 22 Oct: the QYP set is not Budget-material). Status at c710718:

Up to date with main a8b2848 and Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279's fix 560005c; mergeable. Stacks on Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279.
CI: running at this head. The Aggregate impact report (linked in the description) is from the previous head, and only tests have changed since.
The full-stack integration's only failures are fixed: Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education #2299's benefit cap oracle and Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279's generator. Both files pass at End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302's head (64 passed).
Review: round 2 REQUEST_CHANGES on crossed overrides; addressed (documented, plus a crossed test). It needs a round 3 review at this head.
Left to do: CI green at this head, then mark ready and hand off to the UK hub with a handoffs.jsonl line. Owner: the QYP follow-ups session (local_1b6fef51-8f78-48d7-addf-36982ce71831).

MaxGhenis and others added 7 commits October 10, 2026 18:09

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into qy…

9c194db

…p-terminal-date-19

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into qy…

24b79b8

…p-terminal-date-19 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Pin the 1 September birthday in the terminal-date YAML cases

3876f05

A mutation that read a 19th birthday on 1 September as its own "1 September following" was caught by the calendar property test only. Case 11 pins the edge in YAML too. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/main into qyp-terminal-date-19

d262e0a

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 11, 2026

End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302

Draft

MaxGhenis and others added 7 commits October 11, 2026 08:53

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

addd127

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

9d2fadb

Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into qyp-terminal-date-19

884fd5e

Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb and main e01f2f5 with it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/main into qyp-terminal-date-19

b5cbd2e

Brings in main e01f2f5. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026

Merge origin/qyp-terminal-date-19 into qyp-income-support-exclusion

c6c46e6

Brings in #2300's round 1 fixes and main e01f2f5. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 14, 2026

Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279

Open

MaxGhenis and others added 5 commits October 21, 2026 21:18

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

0b0d764

# Conflicts: # policyengine_uk/tests/test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py

Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into qyp-terminal-date-19

7ca6af1

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/main into qyp-terminal-date-19

bfb108d

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 22, 2026

Merge origin/qyp-terminal-date-19 into qyp-income-support-exclusion

5be0ed8

Brings in #2300's round 2 changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 21, 2026 23:32

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into qy…

c710718

…p-terminal-date-19

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests #2387

Merged

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Place the Universal Credit and Pension Credit qualifying young person terminal date from the date of birth - #2300

Place the Universal Credit and Pension Credit qualifying young person terminal date from the date of birth#2300
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Summary

The law

Change

The annual approximation

Setting the date for one person

Invariants

Tests

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

Local runs

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

Moves flagged for review

Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Household net income by decile

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