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Stop discounting LTT and LBTT twice - #2315

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fix/ltt-lbtt-expected-2246
Oct 23, 2026
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Stop discounting LTT and LBTT twice#2315
MaxGhenis merged 5 commits into
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fix/ltt-lbtt-expected-2246

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
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Fixes #2246

What changes

expected_ltt and expected_lbtt multiplied purchase-based liabilities by a 4.5% sale rate even though purchases had already been selected. This counted LTT and LBTT at 4.5% of their value in tax totals and discounted reforms by the same factor.

Each expected value now adds its underlying liability directly, following SDLT's convention from #2235. The PR removes the unused gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.property_sale_rate parameter and obsolete test overrides, updates the fiscal-partition notes, and adds regression and property tests. Statutory liabilities are unchanged. External reforms that still set the removed parameter must drop that setting.

Updated from #2235 at 8c1b54dd9; #2235 has since merged into main at 0def167a1. #2241 has also merged, so both landing prerequisites are satisfied and this PR targets main.

Impact and limits

Current Aggregate impact (report, uk-data 1.58.1, main fe0b99a36b against the merge 8e268e6d8a): receipts rise by £385.5m in 2026-27, LBTT +£309.1m and LTT +£76.4m. LBTT rises from £297.0m (2025-26) to £386.0m (2031-32), and LTT from £71.8m to £105.5m. Both move towards outturn (Revenue Scotland, p6: LBTT £899m in 2024-25; WRA annual report, note 2.1: LTT £363m in 2025-26), but the model stays well below receipts.

Historical measurement, 11 October 2026: real microsimulation runs on uk-data 1.58.0, with #2241 applied to both sides, increase gov_tax, household_tax, pre_budget_change_household_tax and gov_balance by £0.435bn in 2026-27. Household net income falls by the same amount. The annual tax increase ranges from £0.413bn in 2025-26 to £0.541bn in 2030-31. Poverty rates and HBAI household net income are unchanged in those runs.

In 2026-27, expected LTT rises from £0.003bn to £0.070bn and expected LBTT from £0.017bn to £0.385bn. LTT/LBTT reforms enter totals at their full value rather than 4.5% of it: a factor of 1 / 0.045, about 22.2.

These are dated uk-data estimates, not a new estimate for the current Budget Microcosm pair. The evidence is ~/reviews/uk-ltt-lbtt-2246/impact.md, with the scripts, run outputs and exact SHAs alongside it. It used policyengine-core 3.33.0 and policyengine-uk 2.126.8. The earlier £2.273bn estimate excluded #2241 and is superseded for the landed stack.

The updated base includes the Welsh residential rate fixes (#1796) and Scottish 8% additional-dwelling supplement (#1795). Their three former strict expected failures are now ordinary differential assertions. The historical impact above predates these rate fixes. Historical purchase-data limitations and ungated component variables remain separate; tax totals use the country-gated liabilities.

Fix evidence

The regression tests check hand-calculated purchase liabilities and prove that expected values equal their liabilities. Property tests check geography, non-negativity and that zeroing every LTT/LBTT rate removes exactly one full liability from each tax total without changing SDLT. Existing evidence on the original #2235 base recorded 9 of 17 new YAML cases failing before the fix and all 17 passing afterward.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/revenue_scotland/expected_lbtt.yaml
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/wra/land_transaction_tax/expected_ltt.yaml

Validation at updated head

  • Targeted local tests (-n 2, foreground): waiting for the required 60 GB free-disk gate. No local venv installation or test suite has started while below the gate.
  • uvx ruff format --check .: passed (1,940 files). Touched-file ruff check also passed. The installed Ruff tool was reused without installing a venv.
  • CI at 257b39562f172e404ac54efea253a9f2d90dcd89: pending. CI runs the full suite. The hub supplies the independent final-head review; this job does not merge.

axiom: n/a: microsim-only. This changes how model totals count LTT and LBTT; statutory liabilities are unchanged and remain represented in rulespec-uk.

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 11, 2026 12:24
@MaxGhenis @claude
Stop discounting LTT and LBTT twice (#2246)
3afd97d 
expected_ltt and expected_lbtt multiplied land_transaction_tax and
land_and_buildings_transaction_tax by property_sale_rate (0.045). Those
liabilities already charge only the year's purchases (on FRS-based data,
the seeded annual purchaser draw) and rent increments, so the sale rate
discounted them a second time. Follow #2235's SDLT convention: the
purchase draw is the expectation, and each expected value equals its
liability.

property_sale_rate now has no reader, so remove it and the leftover
test overrides of it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Test that LTT and LBTT enter the totals once, at full value
7e04563 
YAML cases hand-compute LBTT (SSI 2015/126 Tables A and B, first-time
buyer relief) and LTT (WSI 2018/128 Tables 1 to 3) on purchases in
Scotland and Wales and check expected = liability = the household's
tax totals. The Hypothesis test checks expected equals realised and,
independently, that zeroing every LTT and LBTT rate lowers each total
by exactly the liabilities. A differential test compares the model with
the statutory tables; the schedules it has stale (issues 1795, 1796) are
strict expected failures.

On the #2235 head (41e970b), 9 of the 17 YAML cases and the property
test fail; here all pass.

The partition's data notes now give the measured 1.58.0 figures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 11, 2026
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This was referenced Oct 16, 2026
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@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 19, 2026
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Base automatically changed from fix/corporate-sdlt-double-count to main October 22, 2026 13:16
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Updated stack hand-off at 2026-10-22T18:03:10+00:00.

  • Head: 257b39562f172e404ac54efea253a9f2d90dcd89 on fix/ltt-lbtt-expected-2246. One fast-forward push; Max Ghenis and the original commits are preserved. Merged Count corporate SDLT once and let SDLT abolition remove all of it #2235 head 8c1b54dd9, then fetched main fe0b99a36. Count corporate SDLT once and let SDLT abolition remove all of it #2235 merged during the job; base is now explicitly main. Stop charging property stocks as purchases when a household buys its home #2241 is already merged. GitHub reports this head mergeable.
  • Changes: resolved the two fiscal-partition note conflicts. Promoted the three old strict xfails to ordinary differential cases because the updated base includes the Welsh rate and Scottish 8% supplement fixes. Dated the original impact notes accordingly.
  • Validation: touched-file Ruff format/lint passed; uvx ruff format --check . passed (1,940 files). Local locked-venv installation and targeted -n 2 tests have not run: free disk stayed below the required 60 GB (about 54 GB most recently), with load1 intermittently above 110. No local microsimulation was started. Full CI remains queued: Code changes, Aggregate impact, and Fix evidence. The repository queue has runs dating to 16:03Z. No CI re-runs were requested.
  • Impact: the existing real runs dated 11 October on uk-data 1.58.0 / model 2.126.8 with Stop charging property stocks as purchases when a household buys its home #2241 show +£0.435bn in 2026-27 tax receipts/balance and the same reduction in household net income, with unchanged poverty/HBAI income. LTT/LBTT reforms now score at full liability rather than 4.5% (about 22.2 times). This predates the upstream rate updates and is not a fresh Budget Microcosm estimate.
  • Open items: run the targeted tests when disk/load/Fleet gates allow; confirm CI green at this exact head; then mark ready (gh pr ready 2315 --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk). The PR remains draft while CI is queued. Independent final-head review belongs to the hub. No merge performed.

The assigned workspace contains .job/HANDOFF.md, .job/PROGRESS.md, a guarded .job/run-targeted.sh, and .job/stack-2315.bundle. Its protected caller-owned .git metadata was untouched; local commit metadata is in .job/git (set GIT_DIR=$PWD/.job/git and GIT_WORK_TREE=$PWD). All writes stayed inside the assigned workspace. No background process remains; .hypothesis/ and .job/uv-cache are removed.

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github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base fe0b99a36b against head 8e268e6d8a, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 17 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2031-32 £0.02bn £0.40bn +£386.0m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2030-31 £0.02bn £0.39bn +£370.4m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2029-30 £0.02bn £0.37bn +£355.1m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2028-29 £0.02bn £0.36bn +£339.3m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2027-28 £0.02bn £0.34bn +£323.9m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2026-27 £0.01bn £0.32bn +£309.1m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) 2025-26 £0.01bn £0.31bn +£297.0m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £38,380 £38,323 -£57
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £37,482 £37,427 -£55
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2029-30 £36,967 £36,914 -£54
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2028-29 £36,632 £36,581 -£52
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2027-28 £45,872 £45,822 -£50
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2026-27 £45,019 £44,971 -£48
Land transaction tax (Wales) 2031-32 £0.00bn £0.11bn +£105.5m
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2025-26 £43,698 £43,652 -£46
Government balance, each receipt once 2025-26 £367.45bn £367.82bn +£368.8m
gov_balance 2025-26 £367.45bn £367.82bn +£368.8m

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Land transaction tax (Wales) +£71.8m +£76.4m +£82.3m +£88.1m +£94.0m +£99.6m +£105.5m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) +£297.0m +£309.1m +£323.9m +£339.3m +£355.1m +£370.4m +£386.0m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once +£368.8m +£385.4m +£406.3m +£427.5m +£449.1m +£470.0m +£491.5m
Government balance, each receipt once +£368.8m † +£385.4m † +£406.3m † +£427.5m † +£449.1m † +£470.0m † +£491.5m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax +£368.8m +£385.4m +£406.3m +£427.5m +£449.1m +£470.0m +£491.5m
household_tax +£368.8m +£385.4m +£406.3m +£427.5m +£449.1m +£470.0m +£491.5m
pre_budget_change_household_tax +£368.8m +£385.4m +£406.3m +£427.5m +£449.1m +£470.0m +£491.5m
gov_balance +£368.8m † +£385.4m † +£406.3m † +£427.5m † +£449.1m † +£470.0m † +£491.5m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income -£368.8m † -£385.4m † -£406.3m † -£427.5m † -£449.1m † -£470.0m † -£491.5m †

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household -£9.41 † -£9.70 † -£10 † -£11 † -£11 † -£12 † -£12 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household -£0.25 † -£0.29 † -£0.34 † -£0.39 † -£0.44 † -£0.48 † -£0.53 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household -£0.83 † -£0.90 † -£0.98 † -£52 † -£54 † -£55 † -£57 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household -£46 † -£48 † -£50 † -£0.35 † -£0.40 † -£0.44 † -£0.49 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£0.76 † -£0.80 † -£47 † -£49 † -£50 † -£52 † -£53 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household -£52 † -£54 † -£8.31 † -£9.02 † -£10 † -£11 † -£12 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household -£2.63 † -£2.77 † -£2.99 † -£3.20 † -£3.44 † -£3.68 † -£3.90 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household -£0.75 † -£0.81 † -£0.89 † -£0.95 † -£1.00 † -£1.07 † -£1.13 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household -£5.92 † -£6.31 † -£6.74 † -£7.43 † -£8.26 † -£8.93 † -£9.67 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp -£2 +£4 +£0 +£15 +£0 -£10 +£9
Raise higher rate by 1pp -£3 -£0 -£8 -£0 -£3 -£4 +£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£17 +£4 -£8 -£15 +£6 +£0 +£14
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child +£0 -£0 -£0 +£2 -£1 0 -£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% 0 0 -£0 -£0 -£0 -£0 0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£5 +£13 -£37 +£3 -£2 -£0 -£8
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp +£21 +£19 -£47 -£16 -£2 -£3 -£43
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 -£0 0 0 -£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% +£0 +£0 0 0 +£0 0 -£0
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£7 +£3 -£5 -£3 +£13 +£2 -£10

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 -£9 (-0.1%) -£10 (-0.1%) -£10 (-0.1%) -£11 (-0.1%) -£11 (-0.1%) -£12 (-0.1%) -£12 (-0.1%)
Decile 2 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3 -£1 (-0.0%) fewer than 10 households change -£1 (-0.0%) -£52 (-0.1%) -£54 (-0.1%) -£55 (-0.1%) -£57 (-0.1%)
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 5 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 6 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7 -£52 (-0.1%) -£54 (-0.1%) -£8 (-0.0%) -£9 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£11 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%)
Decile 8 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
all -£12 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£13 (-0.0%) -£14 (-0.0%) -£14 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%)
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.1%
2026-27 0.0% 0.1%
2027-28 0.0% 0.1%
2028-29 0.0% 0.1%
2029-30 0.0% 0.1%
2030-31 0.0% 0.1%
2031-32 0.0% 0.1%

No change in any year: population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main fe0b99a36b uk 2.147.2 (files 16352cfe8445), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5c9a49667c9b d4c1e9f08160 1619.87s
head #2315 merged into main 8e268e6d8a uk 2.147.2 (files 529ee9684f05), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5c9a49667c9b d45c899ad70a 1614.1s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.36bn £0.37bn £0.39bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £82.55bn £84.28bn £85.26bn £86.64bn £87.92bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.69bn £3.18bn £3.26bn £3.33bn £3.42bn £3.51bn £3.60bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,402k 6,412k 6,386k 6,378k 6,363k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,029k 1,033k 1,035k 1,039k 1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.75bn £939.63bn £976.59bn £1,009.81bn £1,046.11bn £1,083.07bn £1,123.97bn
Government spending £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.82bn † £392.64bn † £423.54bn † £449.78bn † £477.51bn † £505.32bn † £537.11bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.75bn £939.63bn £976.59bn £1,009.81bn £1,046.11bn £1,083.07bn £1,123.97bn
household_tax £493.40bn £519.92bn £545.73bn £567.93bn £590.16bn £614.64bn £641.37bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.58bn £511.79bn £537.38bn £558.89bn £580.89bn £605.09bn £631.47bn
gov_spending £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
household_benefits £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
gov_balance £367.82bn † £392.64bn † £423.54bn † £449.78bn † £477.51bn † £505.32bn † £537.11bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.32bn † £1,705.56bn † £1,737.12bn † £1,771.15bn † £1,807.23bn † £1,848.77bn † £1,900.43bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,542.73bn £1,575.67bn £1,609.74bn £1,648.74bn £1,699.14bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0% 15.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 22.0% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 22.2% 22.4% 22.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.6% 31.8% 32.4% 32.9% 33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.4% 20.6% 20.9% 21.2% 21.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.7% 23.6% 23.2% 23.3% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.4% 14.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.4% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.4% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5% 32.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,975k 11,077k 11,210k 11,339k 11,354k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,332k 3,325k 3,371k 3,407k 3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,115k 6,209k 6,281k 6,360k 6,367k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 15,080k 15,313k 15,657k 15,918k 16,049k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,776k 4,818k 4,933k 5,035k 5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,848k 9,001k 9,191k 9,342k 9,400k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,639k 11,698k 11,596k 11,730k 11,890k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,578k 3,587k 3,531k 3,566k 3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,401k 6,485k 6,468k 6,552k 6,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,660k 1,627k 1,597k 1,611k 1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,981k 15,071k 15,191k 15,336k 15,683k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,751k 4,755k 4,774k 4,816k 4,937k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,784k 8,917k 9,017k 9,112k 9,256k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,445k 1,399k 1,399k 1,408k 1,491k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3074 0.3080 0.3085 0.3091 0.3102
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,823 † £18,005 † £17,969 † £18,026 † £18,353 † £18,534 † £18,710 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,135 † £29,092 † £28,744 † £29,163 † £29,434 † £29,997 † £30,442 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,680 † £36,228 † £36,581 † £36,914 † £37,427 † £38,323 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £41,970 † £42,713 † £43,280 † £44,024 † £44,550 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,652 † £44,971 † £45,822 † £46,588 † £47,624 † £48,569 † £49,771 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,493 † £49,774 † £50,885 † £51,651 † £52,100 † £53,417 † £54,317 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,308 † £57,498 † £58,372 † £59,111 † £60,149 † £60,871 † £62,968 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,814 † £70,400 † £71,729 † £72,838 † £74,418 † £75,791 † £77,571 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,734 † £82,087 † £83,279 † £84,575 † £86,143 † £87,655 † £90,724 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,766 † £120,633 † £122,560 † £124,685 † £126,932 † £129,200 † £132,013 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.40bn £-21.83bn £-21.91bn £-22.28bn £-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.48bn £12.82bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.39bn £21.82bn £21.90bn £22.27bn £22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.24bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 06:09
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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 68fac3e Oct 23, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix/ltt-lbtt-expected-2246 branch October 23, 2026 19:21
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 257b39562, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

  • What it fixes: expected_sdlt adds the property sale rate; expected_lbtt and expected_ltt discount purchases twice #2246. expected_lbtt and expected_ltt applied the property-sale probability twice, so Scottish and Welsh land transaction taxes entered totals at about 4.5% of their value. A hub build merged main, including Count corporate SDLT once and let SDLT abolition remove all of it #2235 (corporate SDLT counted once), and resolved the conflicts.
  • Independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at this exact head):
    • SDLT, LBTT and LTT now each apply the annual purchaser indicator once (main_residential_property_purchased.py:13; expected_sdlt.py:22, expected_lbtt.py:20, expected_ltt.py:19).
    • Count corporate SDLT once and let SDLT abolition remove all of it #2235's fix is intact. Corporate SDLT appears once in gov_tax, household_tax and pre_budget_change_household_tax, and abolition still zeros it.
    • Its local run passed all 97 YAML cases (17 of them new regressions) and 41 Python cases, with no failures.
  • CI: every check passes at this head. The merge queue re-runs the full suite against current main.
  • Impact (Aggregate impact report, uk-data 1.58.1): receipts rise by £385.5m in 2026-27 (LBTT +£309.1m, LTT +£76.4m), growing to +£491.5m in 2031-32. Both taxes move towards Revenue Scotland and WRA outturns but stay well below them. The hub added this current figure to the PR body; the body's £0.435bn is dated 11 Oct evidence on uk-data 1.58.0.
  • Why now: this is a current-law correction that Budget-day property tax estimates depend on, and Max asked on 22 Oct to clear the UK PR backlog before the Budget.

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expected_sdlt adds the property sale rate; expected_lbtt and expected_ltt discount purchases twice

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