[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2532

What and why

test_bounds_and_differential checks that is_gainfully_employed_for_carers_allowance is true exactly when weekly earnings, with a fraction of a penny disregarded (Computation of Earnings Regulations 1996 reg. 5), exceed the £204 limit. The test counted the pence on earnings converted to float64. The formula counts them on the stored float32 value. At pay of £10,608.52 in 2026, stored as 10,608.51953125, the formula counts 20,401 weekly pence (gainfully employed) and the test counted 20,400 (not gainfully employed). So a draw that lands there failed. Such a draw is rare, but the test wasn't derandomized, so CI could go red at random with no code change. The test now mirrors the formula's float32 arithmetic. The old float64 recompute applied reg. 5 exactly to the stored value, which is £204.00 a week (20,400.9991 pence floored). The formula's float32 rounding gives £204.01, which matches the £10,608.52 entered. Whether the formula should count pence in float32 at all is #2541: for the 2020-21 to 2024-25 limits the same rounding goes the other way, and a carer a penny a week over the limit keeps full Carer's Allowance. This PR leaves the model alone.

This is the same pattern #2518 fixed in test_carers_allowance_pension_contribution_deduction_rate_properties.py, and the same fix:

• _person() keeps each variable's stored dtype instead of converting to float.
• A new _over_limit() counts the pence on that stored value, as the formula does. The bounds and tolerance checks convert with float(), so they compute exactly as before.
• Three explicit @examples for test_bounds_and_differential: pay £10,608.00 (exactly £204.00 a week), pay £10,608.52 (£204.01 a week), each with no profit or pension, and pay £8,000 with a £5,000 trading loss and a 10% pension share (earnings £7,600, below the limit; the derandomized draws have no real loss and no earnings between a few pence and the limit).
• test_a_penny_a_week_over_the_2026_limit_ends_entitlement asserts the outcome at £10,608.00 (not gainfully employed, full rate) and £10,608.52 (gainfully employed, nil) directly, not only agreement with _over_limit.
• derandomize=True on the file's three property tests, as in 116 of the 145 Hypothesis test files in the repo.

Test only: no model source changes, and no change to any output.

Invariant under test

For a carer in England in 2026 with any pay, trading profit and pension share drawn: is_gainfully_employed_for_carers_allowance equals floor(stored_earnings / 52 * 100 + 1e-6) / 100 > 204, computed in the stored dtype. The allowance is nil when that holds and the full rate otherwise. The other invariants in the file (bounds, monotonicity, unearned income) are unchanged.

Test plan

• For policy changes: not applicable (test only).
• uvx ruff format and uvx ruff check on the changed file: clean. uvx ruff format --check . passes over the repo (1,847 files).
• Changelog fragment: changelog.d/2532.fixed.md.
• pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_carers_allowance_earnings_limit_properties.py -n 4: 13 passed at 3b466a0 (11 at 370aade). This used the locked environment (policyengine-core 3.33.2, numpy 2.5.4, hypothesis 6.169.0, uv.lock identical to main's), importing this branch's source.
• Mutant. A copy of the new file with only the old float64 conversion restored in _person() (float(np.asarray(...)[0])) fails at the pay=10608.52 example, at both 370aade and 3b466a0:

  >       assert bool(result["is_gainfully_employed_for_carers_allowance"]) == over
  E       assert True == np.False_
  E       Failing explicit example: test_bounds_and_differential(
  E           pay=10608.52,
  E           profit=0.0,
  E           pension_share=0.0,
  E       )
  

• Exhaustive sweep around the limit. Every float32 pay from 10,607.900390625 to 10,608.599609375 (717 values), each a carer in England in 2026, in one simulation. Earnings equal pay in this band, so this covers every stored earnings value from £204.00 to £204.01 a week.
  • The model makes 83 of them gainfully employed. The first is 10,608.51953125.
  • _over_limit disagrees with the model on 0 of the 717.
  • The old float64 recomputation disagrees on exactly 1: 10,608.51953125.
  • The allowance is nil exactly when the carer is gainfully employed, on all 717.

Review

• 370aade, GPT-6.1 Sol (subfleet run --task review --tier hard): REQUEST_CHANGES. It reproduced every number then in this body. It also ran the formula against _over_limit on all 1,024,001 float32 values in [10,000, 11,000] and 1,000,000 random values in [0, 60,000], and ran 22,000 non-derandomized draws, with 0 disagreements and 0 failures. It found one false sentence in this body, which I corrected by editing the body, and three nits, which 3b466a0 fixes: the direct outcome test, the trading-loss example and the changelog wording. Its follow-up on the formula became Carer's Allowance: a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 earnings limits counts as within the limit #2541.
• 3b466a0, Opus 5.5 (the same review task, served on a Claude lane because the Codex lanes were closed): APPROVE. It reran the test file (13 passed), the mutant and the sweep, and confirmed Carer's Allowance: a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 earnings limits counts as within the limit #2541's table and exhaustive claim by running the model. It left five wording nits. ddede0b fixes the one in the code, a test comment, which is the only change since 3b466a0. Edits to this body, Carer's Allowance earnings-limit property test counts pence in float64, not the model's float32 #2532 and Carer's Allowance: a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 earnings limits counts as within the limit #2541 fix the rest.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_carers_allowance_earnings_limit_properties.py::test_bounds_and_differential

axiom: n/a: test-only change, no model source changes

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 68ce6a6fbc against head c289b1db51, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 68ce6a6fbc	uk 2.141.10 (files 6748b40f2292), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	115483567a8e	f210f83d5be4	1023.93s
head	#2534 merged into main c289b1db51	uk 2.141.10 (files 6748b40f2292), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	115483567a8e	f210f83d5be4	1037.08s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.38bn	£319.14bn	£336.66bn	£351.81bn	£367.35bn	£385.48bn	£403.83bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.02bn	£7.09bn	£7.21bn	£7.34bn	£7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.92bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,490k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,244k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,184k	3,210k	3,223k	3,244k	3,261k	3,279k	3,292k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.48bn	£939.37bn	£976.38bn	£1,009.57bn	£1,045.85bn	£1,082.80bn	£1,123.71bn
Government spending	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.90bn †	£388.45bn †	£419.13bn †	£445.25bn †	£472.97bn †	£500.68bn †	£532.43bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.61bn	£942.50bn	£979.51bn	£1,012.70bn	£1,048.98bn	£1,085.93bn	£1,126.84bn
household_tax	£496.26bn	£522.79bn	£548.64bn	£570.82bn	£593.03bn	£617.49bn	£644.24bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.43bn	£514.67bn	£540.29bn	£561.78bn	£583.75bn	£607.95bn	£634.34bn
gov_spending	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
household_benefits	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
gov_balance	£366.03bn †	£391.58bn †	£422.26bn †	£448.38bn †	£476.10bn †	£503.81bn †	£535.56bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,658.11bn †	£1,706.62bn †	£1,738.40bn †	£1,772.54bn †	£1,808.64bn †	£1,850.28bn †	£1,901.98bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.67bn	£1,513.40bn	£1,545.60bn	£1,578.60bn	£1,612.63bn	£1,651.67bn	£1,702.07bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.9%	22.2%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.1%	30.3%	30.9%	31.1%	31.7%	32.3%	32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.5%	12.6%	12.9%	13.0%	13.1%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.1%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	31.6%	31.2%	31.1%	31.5%	31.6%	32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.5%	13.1%	12.7%	12.8%	12.7%	12.7%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,079k	11,209k	11,218k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,315k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,544k	1,561k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,660k	14,362k	14,899k	15,116k	15,439k	15,724k	15,870k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,809k	4,556k	4,676k	4,719k	4,832k	4,939k	4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,333k	8,326k	8,775k	8,931k	9,120k	9,275k	9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,518k	1,480k	1,449k	1,466k	1,487k	1,509k	1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,760k	11,456k	11,504k	11,625k	11,706k	11,868k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,514k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,365k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,766k	1,758k	1,625k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,065k	14,863k	14,993k	15,090k	15,314k	15,490k	15,653k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,948k	4,756k	4,711k	4,715k	4,795k	4,840k	4,919k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,511k	8,559k	8,822k	8,917k	9,068k	9,192k	9,260k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,605k	1,548k	1,460k	1,458k	1,452k	1,457k	1,475k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3051	0.3065	0.3071	0.3077	0.3083	0.3093

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£17,992 †	£18,326 †	£18,523 †	£18,686 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,362 †	£29,040 †	£28,672 †	£29,013 †	£29,373 †	£29,779 †	£30,329 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,607 †	£35,902 †	£36,508 †	£37,008 †	£37,263 †	£37,825 †	£38,514 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,329 †	£40,908 †	£41,807 †	£42,695 †	£43,186 †	£43,984 †	£45,129 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,871 †	£46,147 †	£47,077 †	£47,609 †	£48,379 †	£49,251 †	£50,073 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,324 †	£50,272 †	£51,070 †	£52,170 †	£52,939 †	£54,222 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,320 †	£57,578 †	£58,469 †	£59,414 †	£60,124 †	£61,607 †	£63,192 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,250 †	£70,361 †	£71,635 †	£72,869 †	£74,327 †	£75,790 †	£77,563 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,671 †	£82,008 †	£83,242 †	£84,444 †	£86,085 †	£87,570 †	£90,640 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,648 †	£120,458 †	£122,406 †	£124,560 †	£126,772 †	£129,080 †	£131,872 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.92bn	£-9.13bn	£-9.03bn	£-9.06bn	£-9.26bn	£-9.51bn	£-9.78bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.78bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub

• Head: ddede0b61eb95e679bda09029d7ddf88b991304d. It is ready, not a draft, and mergeable is MERGEABLE. The change is test-only: one test file plus changelog.d/2532.fixed.md, with no model source changes.
• Reviews:
  • GPT-6.1 Sol at 370aade: REQUEST_CHANGES (~/reviews/uk-2534-ca-float32/review-sol.md). All four findings are fixed.
  • Opus 5.5 at 3b466a0, the review task served on a Claude lane because Codex was closed: APPROVE (~/reviews/uk-2534-ca-float32/rereview-sol.md). Its five wording nits are fixed in ddede0b, which is comment-only, and in the PR, Carer's Allowance earnings-limit property test counts pence in float64, not the model's float32 #2532 and Carer's Allowance: a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 earnings limits counts as within the limit #2541 bodies.
  • The delta 3b466a0..ddede0b was checked independently, by an in-session Opus agent, as comment-only, and Hypothesis's function_digest is unchanged. Verdict: APPROVE at ddede0b.
• Passed locally: the test file, 13 passed with -n 4. The float64-restored mutant fails at the pay=10608.52 example. Fix evidence passes (trusted checker, live body). Ruff format and check are clean.
• CI at ddede0b: 7 pass, 7 pending (the test shards). At 3b466a0 all 15 passed.
• Depends on: nothing. No hold and no decision id.
• Follow-up owed elsewhere: the formula's own float32 boundary bug, Carer's Allowance: a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 earnings limits counts as within the limit #2541, is fixed separately in Count Carer's Allowance earnings-limit pence exactly #2543 (draft, owned by session local_2c07835f). If Count Carer's Allowance earnings-limit pence exactly #2543 lands and changes the formula's arithmetic, it must update _over_limit here to match. Its brief says so.
• Evidence and scripts: ~/reviews/uk-2534-ca-float32/.

Land through the merge queue once Test / Result and Lint are green.

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, from the owner session's hand-off (local_68ce44ef). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head ddede0b61eb95e679bda09029d7ddf88b991304d.

• Change: test only. One property-test file plus changelog.d/2532.fixed.md, with no model source change.
• Reviews:
  • GPT-6.1 Sol at 370aade: REQUEST_CHANGES. All four findings fixed.
  • Opus 5.5 at 3b466a0: APPROVE. Its five wording nits are fixed in ddede0b.
  • An independent check of 3b466a0..ddede0b found it comment-only, with Hypothesis's function_digest unchanged.
  • Evidence: ~/reviews/uk-2534-ca-float32/.
• Tests: the file passes (13 with -n 4). The float64-restored mutant fails, as intended, at pay = 10,608.52. The merge queue re-tests against current main.
• Impact: none. Test only.
• Follow-up: Count Carer's Allowance earnings-limit pence exactly #2543, which fixes the formula's own float32 boundary for Carer's Allowance: a penny a week over the 2020-21 to 2024-25 earnings limits counts as within the limit #2541, must update _over_limit here if it changes that arithmetic.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code