[juaristi22]

Fixes #2356.

The default historical tax-band formula used the last two scale slots, so a higher-rate earner could be classified as BASIC and incorrectly meet the Marriage Allowance income condition. Use the actual basic/higher limits and assign equality to the lower band. Preserve Gift Aid extensions and every later dated formula.

The regression covers real married England households in 2016 and 2017: wages of £60,000/£5,000 yield recipient Marriage Allowance £0 and income tax £13,200/£12,700. Annual charging/rate Acts and Finance Act 2015 threshold/allowance overrides support these amounts. The issue's £1,060 transfer example is stale for 2016; the statutory maximum then is £1,100, subject to the remaining conditions.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/bracketized_liability/tax_band_historical.yaml

The unchanged 16-case reproducer first failed 7 cases and passed 9 on captured main 5f4b81c, then passed all 16 after the fix. The affected programme batch passed 359 YAML cases (including those 16); 11 existing Python controls passed. Full-repository format/lint checks, compilation, Towncrier discovery, source-cache and trusted-base Fix checks passed locally.

The undated formula also serves earlier supported years; the 2015 test checks bracket structure rather than certifying historical rates. Annual 2017 dispatch still uses the default method because dated methods are selected at the model's period start. Modern and Scottish controls preserve later dispatch. This is not a full historical/devolved rate, election, residence, take-up or dividend audit. Draft #1963 changes the Marriage Allowance consumer: whichever lands second needs combined consumer tests; no foreign implementation or compatibility certificate is claimed here.

axiom: needed

The underlying Axiom/parity debt remains OPEN and unverified. A nonexecuting supplemental handoff for existing RuleSpec issue59 is prepared from the same official originals and independent companion cases; it is not delivered, dispatch-ready, queued, encoded or a parity certificate. No billed signed-encoder run is approved. Any later free handoff needs fresh duplicate/activity/module/corpus/label checks and independent source/case review; an assignee is not a repository prerequisite.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 5f4b81c471 against head 97c4cd8f7c, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 5f4b81c471	uk 2.141.3 (files 8268eb8ac7ac), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	acba8a946e10	0d0426ee9e38	916.38s
head	#2539 merged into main 97c4cd8f7c	uk 2.141.3 (files 98a3031e87bf), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	acba8a946e10	0d0426ee9e38	938.43s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.12bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.02bn	£7.09bn	£7.21bn	£7.34bn	£7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.92bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,490k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,244k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,185k	3,210k	3,223k	3,244k	3,262k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.39bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.81bn †	£388.29bn †	£418.91bn †	£445.00bn †	£472.02bn †	£499.54bn †	£531.22bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.52bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
household_benefits	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
gov_balance	£365.94bn †	£391.42bn †	£422.04bn †	£448.13bn †	£475.15bn †	£502.67bn †	£534.35bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,658.19bn †	£1,706.78bn †	£1,738.62bn †	£1,772.80bn †	£1,809.05bn †	£1,850.77bn †	£1,902.51bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.75bn	£1,513.56bn	£1,545.81bn	£1,578.85bn	£1,613.04bn	£1,652.17bn	£1,702.61bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.6%	12.3%	12.0%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%	12.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.1%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.6%	21.5%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.3%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.6%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.4%	12.8%	12.6%	12.4%	12.4%	12.3%	12.4%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,079k	11,209k	11,218k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,315k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,544k	1,561k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,541k	14,217k	14,696k	14,937k	15,157k	15,396k	15,530k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,767k	4,515k	4,643k	4,699k	4,756k	4,835k	4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,277k	8,253k	8,666k	8,844k	8,994k	9,142k	9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,497k	1,449k	1,386k	1,394k	1,408k	1,419k	1,431k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,760k	11,456k	11,504k	11,625k	11,706k	11,868k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,514k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,365k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,766k	1,758k	1,625k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,916k	14,721k	14,905k	15,007k	15,225k	15,288k	15,517k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,889k	4,715k	4,697k	4,719k	4,791k	4,799k	4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,435k	8,497k	8,758k	8,878k	9,019k	9,074k	9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,591k	1,508k	1,451k	1,410k	1,415k	1,415k	1,429k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3065	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£17,992 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,686 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,362 †	£29,040 †	£28,672 †	£29,013 †	£29,374 †	£29,780 †	£30,330 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,607 †	£35,901 †	£36,507 †	£37,008 †	£37,263 †	£37,949 †	£38,656 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,329 †	£40,908 †	£41,942 †	£42,838 †	£43,195 †	£43,846 †	£44,955 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,874 †	£46,151 †	£46,931 †	£47,446 †	£48,380 †	£49,253 †	£50,077 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,931 †	£49,321 †	£50,272 †	£51,051 †	£52,161 †	£52,926 †	£54,242 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,322 †	£57,584 †	£58,472 †	£59,449 †	£60,165 †	£61,636 †	£62,887 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,252 †	£70,364 †	£71,639 †	£72,874 †	£74,337 †	£75,704 †	£77,574 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,674 †	£82,009 †	£83,247 †	£84,449 †	£86,137 †	£87,749 †	£89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,666 †	£120,533 †	£122,448 †	£124,609 †	£126,968 †	£129,679 †	£132,877 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.92bn	£-9.13bn	£-9.03bn	£-9.06bn	£-9.26bn	£-9.51bn	£-9.78bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on Max's explicit instruction to merge the team's ready PRs before the Budget (21 October, about 23:00Z: "go ahead and merge them. none of us has time to wait on each other"). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head b7ac5ea57d413b2db82ff17a389aa4985fd0e316.

• Gates at this head: every check passes; GitHub reports MERGEABLE; not a draft; juaristi22, review decision . The merge queue re-tests against current main.
• Review: no independent agent review was run at this head before merging, on Max's instruction. Any finding after merge goes to a follow-up PR.
• Budget: the Budget runs on a locked pe-uk release (microcosm#1333). This change reaches Budget-day numbers only if the lock moves to a release that contains it.

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