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Read only the claimant's and partner's ESA in the Pension Credit earnings disregard - #2558

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026 •

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Follow-up to #2026 and #2027. The reader came from #2019.

What and why

The higher Pension Credit earnings disregard is £20 a week "if the claimant or, if he has a partner, his partner ... is in receipt of ... (vii) employment and support allowance" (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI para 4(1)(a)(vii)). Otherwise it is £5 a week for a single claimant and £10 for a couple (para 5), capped at the net earnings.

pension_credit_earnings_disregard (#2019) tests income-related ESA through the parameter list gov.dwp.pension_credit.earnings_disregard.higher.disability_benefit_unit_benefits, with add(benunit, period, list) > 0.

  • Before: from 2008-10-27 the list named esa_income, the benefit unit's income-related ESA. That total also holds an award that anyone else in the benefit unit claims in their own right: an adult who is neither the claimant nor the partner, or a young person with an award of their own. Such a member's ESA could therefore raise the claimant's disregard to £20 a week.
  • After: the list names claimant_or_partner_esa_income (Count only the claimant's and partner's legacy awards in means tests and passports #2027): income-related ESA on the claimant's and partner's own reports. An award anyone else in the benefit unit claims in their own right no longer counts. Contributory ESA was already read only for the claimant and partner, through the person-level list disability_benefits.

The formula is unchanged, and the parameter descriptions now say whose award counts. The list entry is renamed in test_pension_credit_earnings_disregard_properties.py::test_benefit_lists_follow_amending_instruments.

An esa_income entered directly with no reports behind it is still read as the claimant's or partner's: that is how claimant_or_partner_esa_income treats an entered total. So #2019's own case "Income-related ESA, a benefit-unit award, qualifies for the higher disregard." still gives £20 a week.

Invariants

  • Adding another member to a family, with any income-related ESA, income-based JSA or Income Support of their own, never changes pension_credit_earnings_disregard. The legacy award reader properties check this. pension_credit_earnings_disregard is now in FAMILY_READERS, so all four "never change" properties cover it: working-age families, pension-age claimants (many in mixed-age couples), young single applicants and working parents.
  • The claimant's or partner's own income-related ESA still gives the £20 disregard. The YAML control case checks this.
  • 0 <= claimant_or_partner_esa_income <= esa_income, with equality when no other member reports an award. The existing property test_claimant_or_partner_awards_bounded_by_benefit_unit_awards checks this.

Tests

New file policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/legacy_award_readers/pension_credit_earnings_disregard.yaml. Expectations are hand-derived from Sch VI paras 4(1)(a)(vii) and 5. In each case the claimant is aged 70 and earns £3,000, below the personal allowance, and pays no National Insurance over state pension age. So the net earnings are £3,000. Every case asserts the £3,000 of earnings, and the first also asserts nil National Insurance and income tax.

Case Expected
A single pensioner; another member aged 30 has £5,000 of income-related ESA £5 a week, £260
A couple aged 70 and 68, with the same other member £10 a week, £520
Control: the partner, aged 60, has the £5,000 of income-related ESA £20 a week, £1,040
Control: another member has £5,000 of contributory ESA £5 a week, £260

check_switch.sh against the branch point 582b863, with the parameter file restored to its pre-switch version: 4 of 4 pass with the switch, and 2 of 4 (the two excluded-adult income-related ESA cases) fail without it.

Vacuity: with the old list, the extended property test_other_members_awards_never_change_the_readers_at_pension_age fails on pension_credit_earnings_disregard (generate phase only, at most 15 examples), as it should. Both review r1 reviewers found that the working-age property test_other_members_awards_never_change_the_readers also fails on the old list. The model works the disregard out for every benefit unit with earnings, whatever their age.

Local runs on 57bef11: legacy_award_readers YAML: 89 passed; #2019's six YAML files: 82 passed; #2019's eight pytest files: 43 passed; the legacy award reader properties: 18 passed; ruff format --check policyengine_uk: clean. The head, 5f91743, changes only a comment in the property file (back to main's wording) and a parameter description. On it, ruff format --check is clean and the parameter list loads as before.

Impact

Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (a private copy, sha256 e433e532…): one real Microsimulation per package state, calculated for each year from 2025 to 2030. Base: 582b863, this branch's merge base with main. Branch: 57bef11; the later head 5f91743 changes no formula or parameter value. All 133 saved benefit-unit, person and household arrays are identical in every year, so the change is £0. They include pension_credit_earnings_disregard, pension_credit_income, guarantee_credit, pension_credit, household_net_income and the poverty flags. The same runs show why: claimant_or_partner_esa_income equals esa_income (exact array equality) for every benefit unit in every year, and no member outside the claimant's couple and their dependants reports income-related ESA, income-based JSA or Income Support in the data.

Review

  • r1 (2026-10-22, at 57bef11): two independent Opus 5.5 reviewers, run in-session because Subfleet had no open lane when they were planned (0 open, 66 jobs waiting, at 05:14Z). Both returned APPROVE. One hand-derived every YAML expectation from Sch VI and the parameter files and audited this text. The other reran check_switch.sh, the vacuity checks and the Pension Credit earnings disregard property tests, repeated the exact comparison of the saved Enhanced FRS arrays, and checked the local logs. 5f91743 restores main's wording of the further-shapes comment and puts claimant_or_partner_esa_income in backticks in the parameter description; this text takes up their wording findings. One optional suggestion is not taken: an assertion that esa_income is absent from the list, since YAML cases 1 and 2 already fail if it is put back beside the scoped award. One of them also noted that esa_income_eligible does not apply WRA 2007 Sch 1 para 6(1)(c)-(d), so a reported income-related ESA award passes the screen when the other member of the couple is entitled to State Pension Credit; r3 found that the model applies no pensionable-age bar to income-related ESA either (s.1(3)(c)). That is separate from this switch and is now Income-related ESA is paid alongside State Pension Credit (WRA 2007 s.1(3)(c), Sch 1 para 6(1)(c)-(d)) #2565.
  • r2 (2026-10-22, delta review of 5f91743 and this text; in-session, 0 lanes open at 07:31Z): found the code at 5f91743 correct. It asked for the r1 bullet to say which findings were fixed and which were not, and for saved evidence behind two statements and some lines in the impact log. Both are done. Its optional suggestion of a YAML case for a young person's own award is not taken: the existing property test_claimant_or_partner_awards_match_reference draws qualifying young persons who report awards, and the reviewers' probes showed such an award no longer counts (£1,040 on the old list, £520 now, for a couple aged 70 and 68).
  • r3 (2026-10-22, delta review of this text and Income-related ESA is paid alongside State Pension Credit (WRA 2007 s.1(3)(c), Sch 1 para 6(1)(c)-(d)) #2565; in-session): requested changes to the issue draft and to this section's wording; all taken up, and checked in r4 and its follow-up (APPROVE).

Reproducer

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/legacy_award_readers/pension_credit_earnings_disregard.yaml::Another member's income-related ESA leaves a single pensioner with the £5 earnings disregard

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#416 queued (addendum TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#416 (comment), companion tests 15 and 18); rulespec-uk#414 (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI earnings disregards)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 22, 2026 01:08
…ings disregard

The higher Pension Credit earnings disregard (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI para
4(1)(a)(vii)) applies when "the claimant or, if he has a partner, his
partner" is in receipt of employment and support allowance. Its
benefit-unit list read esa_income, the benefit unit's income-related ESA,
which also holds an award that another member (neither claimant, partner
nor a dependant) claims in their own right. The list now names
claimant_or_partner_esa_income (#2027), so that member's award no longer
raises the claimant's disregard from £5 or £10 to £20 a week.

Adds excluded-adult YAML cases and controls in
legacy_award_readers/pension_credit_earnings_disregard.yaml (two of the
four fail on the old list), adds pension_credit_earnings_disregard to
FAMILY_READERS in the legacy award reader properties, and renames the
list entry in the Pension Credit earnings disregard property test.

Follow-up to #2026 and #2027; the reader came from #2019.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 9d81a5dfa8 against head a002af4a13, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 9d81a5dfa8 uk 2.146.2 (files 582dff2713e2), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 6a24b7ff580b f210f83d5be4 1493.8s
head #2558 merged into main a002af4a13 uk 2.146.2 (files 6386165408b0), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 6a24b7ff580b f210f83d5be4 1516.45s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.81bn £83.11bn £84.93bn £86.69bn £87.61bn £89.03bn £90.35bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,092k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,420k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
Government spending £536.24bn † £550.45bn † £556.57bn † £563.61bn † £572.15bn † £581.38bn † £590.55bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £363.15bn † £388.79bn † £419.62bn † £445.77bn † £473.51bn † £501.23bn † £532.93bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.51bn £942.37bn £979.31bn £1,012.51bn £1,048.79bn £1,085.73bn £1,126.61bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.66bn £548.45bn £570.64bn £592.85bn £617.30bn £644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.34bn £514.54bn £540.10bn £561.60bn £583.57bn £607.75bn £634.11bn
gov_spending £536.24bn † £550.45bn † £556.57bn † £563.61bn † £572.15bn † £581.38bn † £590.55bn †
household_benefits £536.24bn † £550.45bn † £556.57bn † £563.61bn † £572.15bn † £581.38bn † £590.55bn †
gov_balance £366.28bn † £391.92bn † £422.75bn † £448.90bn † £476.64bn † £504.36bn † £536.06bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,657.86bn † £1,706.28bn † £1,737.91bn † £1,772.02bn † £1,808.10bn † £1,849.73bn † £1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.42bn £1,513.06bn £1,545.11bn £1,578.08bn £1,612.09bn £1,651.12bn £1,701.58bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.0% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.1% 20.6% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 22.2% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 32.1% 30.3% 30.9% 31.1% 31.7% 32.3% 32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.6% 19.4% 20.2% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.9% 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 31.1% 31.3% 31.6% 32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 20.0% 20.0% 20.3% 20.4% 20.6% 20.8% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 12.8% 13.0% 12.7% 12.9% 13.2%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,056k 10,435k 10,856k 10,960k 11,091k 11,220k 11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,560k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,862k 5,735k 6,068k 6,164k 6,235k 6,314k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,663k 14,366k 14,907k 15,144k 15,491k 15,755k 15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,809k 4,556k 4,676k 4,719k 4,835k 4,939k 4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,333k 8,326k 8,775k 8,931k 9,122k 9,275k 9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,780k 11,464k 11,523k 11,660k 11,708k 11,832k 11,879k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,538k 3,506k 3,524k 3,542k 3,554k 3,565k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,160k 6,356k 6,464k 6,530k 6,636k 6,628k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,786k 1,766k 1,661k 1,673k 1,636k 1,643k 1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,110k 14,866k 14,956k 15,109k 15,280k 15,513k 15,696k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,948k 4,756k 4,684k 4,715k 4,771k 4,840k 4,916k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,531k 8,560k 8,793k 8,917k 9,054k 9,187k 9,257k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,631k 1,551k 1,479k 1,477k 1,455k 1,486k 1,523k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3066 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,700 † £17,996 † £17,934 † £17,991 † £18,328 † £18,506 † £18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,323 † £29,102 † £28,705 † £28,983 † £29,330 † £29,734 † £30,317 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,629 † £35,807 † £36,445 † £37,019 † £37,221 † £37,811 † £38,492 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,334 † £40,803 † £41,758 † £42,693 † £43,435 † £44,025 † £44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,861 † £46,156 † £47,079 † £47,439 † £48,027 † £49,181 † £50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,925 † £49,329 † £50,288 † £51,174 † £52,167 † £52,953 † £54,205 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,319 † £57,568 † £58,473 † £59,423 † £60,149 † £61,621 † £62,893 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,267 † £70,356 † £71,672 † £72,810 † £74,351 † £75,797 † £77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,648 † £81,992 † £83,192 † £84,486 † £86,056 † £87,570 † £90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,618 † £120,489 † £122,421 † £124,552 † £126,802 † £129,073 † £131,887 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.21bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.29bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.95bn £-22.32bn £-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.47bn £12.81bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

The Pension Credit earnings disregard has no age gate in the model: it is
worked out for every benefit unit with earnings, and the working-age
'never change' property already fails on the old list. So it does not
belong among the readers that "only bite for a claimant over state
pension age"; restore main's wording of that comment. Put
claimant_or_partner_esa_income in backticks in the parameter description,
like disability_benefits. Review r1 findings (2026-10-22).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Status at 2026-10-22 09:40Z, from the scheduled job that owns this PR (com.maxghenis.pe-uk-reader-switches-after-2027):

  • The reviewed head, 5f91743, has been in the merge queue since 08:37Z, pinned to that head. It is at position 2, behind Levy the wealth tax on net wealth, not gross total wealth #2561. The reviews (r1 to r4) are listed in the body.
  • At 08:58Z main's version bump rebuilt the queued groups. This PR's group is now 4a0bfb4, and its run (39751832975) is waiting for a runner. Its old group's run (39749144411) was cancelled because it is no longer used.
  • The job checks again at its next run and writes its close-out (marker, rulespec-uk#416 note) once this merges. If the group fails, it will look into it. Nobody needs to act meanwhile.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Merged via the queue into main with commit be16e65 Oct 22, 2026
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@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the legacy-award-reader-switches-2019 branch October 22, 2026 11:15
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 22, 2026
Main's #2558 added a Pension Credit earnings-disregard case whose couple's benefit unit doesn't set would_claim_uc, so under this PR the default UC claim ends the partner's income-related ESA (claimant_or_partner_esa_income 0, not 5,000). Set would_claim_uc: false on that benefit unit, as this PR already does in 84 other legacy cases (independent review B1).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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