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Count statutory pay in Income Support income - #2595

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@juaristi22 juaristi22 commented Oct 23, 2026 •

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Fixes #2370

Income Support currently omits statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay from the claimant's and partner's assessed income. Include those payments in the existing income calculation so they reduce the award. The Pension Credit and benefit-cap portions of the issue were resolved in #2509 and #2399.

The regulations treat these payments as other income. The change preserves the existing claimant/partner mask, deductions, capital rules and closure. The model still applies a claimant-type earnings disregard to combined income, so statutory-pay-only households with unused earnings disregard can have understated assessed income. Broad annual income-tax, National Insurance and pension-deduction attribution also remains. The documentation records both limitations; the new regression households exhaust the existing earnings disregard before testing statutory-pay inclusion.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/income_support/statutory_pay.yaml

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#489 queued

Validation: one focused YAML batch passed all 61 cases (10 new and 51 existing), with zero failures or skips. Whole-repository make format passed with 1,962 files unchanged. Independent code/test and policy/source review completed with no findings or material gaps at 132da97776811edb00ebb69de1595a11e58e80d9. Local validation used the existing Python 3.13.14 / Core 3.33.2 runtime and this checkout on PYTHONPATH; no dependencies changed. No population estimate was run.

@juaristi22 juaristi22 self-assigned this Oct 23, 2026
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 368ce73dcb against head a41a6367e9, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 85 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 368ce73dcb uk 2.149.0 (files 82bcb1e99617), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5913981f9193 2d09eca13f5d 1664.64s
head #2595 merged into main a41a6367e9 uk 2.149.0 (files 6d8966ca6a3a), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5913981f9193 2d09eca13f5d 1709.39s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.03bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,224k 3,245k 3,262k 3,280k 3,294k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
Government spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
household_tax £492.68bn £518.96bn £544.57bn £566.48bn £588.35bn £612.42bn £638.73bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.85bn £510.84bn £536.22bn £557.44bn £579.07bn £602.88bn £628.84bn
gov_spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
household_benefits £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
gov_balance £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,655.70bn † £1,705.12bn † £1,738.71bn † £1,773.17bn † £1,809.60bn † £1,851.54bn † £1,903.54bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,462.17bn £1,509.90bn £1,543.94bn £1,577.28bn £1,611.67bn £1,651.05bn £1,701.84bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.1% 31.3% 31.5% 32.0% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 12.9% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.4% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.2% 12.1% 12.2% 12.5%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,163k 10,583k 10,866k 11,011k 11,088k 11,228k 11,233k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,263k 3,284k 3,310k 3,369k 3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,902k 5,806k 6,087k 6,198k 6,235k 6,305k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,632k 1,556k 1,515k 1,529k 1,543k 1,555k 1,562k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,000k 14,571k 14,968k 15,173k 15,433k 15,708k 15,854k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,703k 4,745k 4,808k 4,897k 4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,476k 8,431k 8,814k 8,960k 9,130k 9,273k 9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,484k 1,451k 1,468k 1,496k 1,538k 1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,974k 11,507k 11,542k 11,648k 11,548k 11,670k 11,705k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,543k 3,553k 3,489k 3,519k 3,518k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,378k 6,475k 6,459k 6,538k 6,554k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,753k 1,621k 1,620k 1,600k 1,613k 1,633k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,732k 14,895k 14,945k 15,110k 15,214k 15,475k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,686k 4,669k 4,725k 4,753k 4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,516k 8,764k 8,884k 8,994k 9,060k 9,195k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,445k 1,392k 1,391k 1,401k 1,441k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3061 0.3068 0.3074 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,841 † £18,023 † £18,040 † £18,084 † £18,438 † £18,627 † £18,803 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,086 † £29,021 † £28,787 † £29,226 † £29,487 † £29,939 † £30,568 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,361 † £35,678 † £36,193 † £36,764 † £37,055 † £37,700 † £38,313 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,776 † £40,951 † £42,048 † £42,647 † £43,424 † £44,189 † £44,704 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,948 † £44,841 † £45,903 † £46,641 † £47,851 † £48,655 † £49,864 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,438 † £49,772 † £50,873 † £51,669 † £51,947 † £53,410 † £54,725 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,400 † £57,626 † £58,395 † £59,133 † £60,160 † £60,960 † £62,360 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,281 † £70,763 † £72,241 † £73,343 † £74,868 † £76,016 † £78,283 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,811 † £82,188 † £83,310 † £84,759 † £86,323 † £87,891 † £90,929 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,852 † £120,687 † £122,639 † £124,783 † £127,005 † £129,364 † £132,261 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@juaristi22
juaristi22 marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 13:13
@MaxGhenis

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UK hub (Claude session, for Max): independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol) at 132da9777. The statutory-pay rule is right; one item blocks.

Nonblocking, so the PR doesn't read as complete statutory-pay support:

  • The earnings disregard still applies to combined income. A 2025 lone parent with only £1,000 of SSP gets max(0, 1000 − 1040) = 0 assessable income, but the legal amount is £1,000. That gap predates this PR.
  • ShPP has no monetary variable anywhere yet.
  • A property test varying statutory pay across the recipient mask would help; the existing IS properties don't vary it.

@juaristi22, can you merge main? The hub reviews the resolved head and lands it.

Resolves the conflict with #2573's spousal maintenance in
income_support_applicable_income.py by keeping both: statutory sick,
maternity and paternity pay as other income (IS Regs 1987 reg 40(4)(a),
Sch 9 paras 1 and 4) and spousal maintenance (reg 40, Sch 9 para 15(3)(a)),
with child maintenance still disregarded (para 73). The Widowed Parent's
Allowance disregard (para 16) is unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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UK hub (Claude session, for Max): merged main into this branch at 5c557635d and resolved the conflict in income_support_applicable_income.py by keeping both sides. Statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay stay as other income (reg 40(4)(a), Sch 9 paras 1 and 4). #2573's spousal maintenance stays too (reg 40, Sch 9 para 15(3)(a)), child maintenance is still disregarded (para 73), and the WPA disregard (para 16) is unchanged. All ten statutory-pay cases sit below the tax threshold (Case 8 supplies tax as an input), so #2368 now taxing SPP changes no expectation. The branch merges cleanly with main. The hub gets a delta review, then lands it.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Any commits made after this event will not be merged.

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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@juaristi22 thanks, first-round review at 5c557635d. The legal treatment is right and the tests pin it. Two shoulds, neither in the formula you added.

What I checked

  • Law, against legislation.gov.uk (current text of SI 1987/1967). Reg 35(1) does not list statutory sick, maternity or paternity pay as earnings, and reg 35(2)(b) excludes employer pay during sickness and statutory leave from earnings. Reg 40(4)(a) then counts any payment under reg 35(2) as income other than earnings, at its gross amount (reg 40(1)). Sch 9 para 1 (tax) and para 4 (primary Class 1 NI and half of pension contributions on these payments) give the deductions. Nothing in Sch 9 disregards GB statutory pay. So adding statutory_sick_pay, statutory_maternity_pay and statutory_paternity_pay to the claimant/partner income list at income_support_applicable_income.py:43-45 matches the regulations, and the README is accurate.
  • The model has no variables for statutory adoption, shared parental, parental bereavement or neonatal care pay, so the three you added are all it can carry. HB already uses the same three (housing_benefit_applicable_income.py:75-77).
  • Tests in a fresh venv: policyengine-core test .../income_support -c policyengine_uk 120 passed. With income_support_applicable_income.py reset to the merge base 368ce73dc, 8 of the 10 new cases fail and the 2 negative controls pass, so the tests pin the change.
  • CI at head: all 16 checks pass. Reproducer: and changelog.d/2370.fixed.md are present.

Findings

  1. should: Schedule 8 earnings disregard is now taken off statutory pay. income_support_applicable_income.py:77-90 subtracts the £5 / £10 / £20 a week disregard from total income, not from earnings. Sch 8 applies to earnings only, and reg 40 statutory pay gets no disregard of that kind. Before this PR statutory pay was missing altogether, so this is still an improvement. But the main group this PR is for, lone parents on maternity pay with no other earnings, now has £1,040 a year knocked off their SMP. Repro at this head: lone parent, child aged 1, statutory_maternity_pay £3,000 in 2025, no earnings: income_support_applicable_income is £1,960. Under the regulations it is £3,000 (no NI is due at that level). The README says this, and the new tests avoid it by using up the disregard with earnings first, which is fair. The fix looks small: cap the disregard at net earnings (min_(income_disregard, earnings) with employment and self-employment income), plus one test with SMP only. If you'd rather leave it for a separate PR, please open a linked follow-up issue before merge so it doesn't get lost. The same over-disregard already applies to pensions and benefits in this pool, so the issue could cover all of it.

  2. should: PR body, axiom: needed. The PR template keeps needed for external contributors who can't do the Axiom work. On a maintainer PR it leaves the parity step with no owner, and the Fix evidence check accepts it, which is why CI passed. rulespec-uk has only reg 53 encoded for Income Support (uk/regulations/uksi/1987/1967/53.yaml), so encoded-correct isn't open to you. TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#485 already queues IS income disregards (widowed parent's allowance and spousal maintenance, from #2572). Adding reg 35(2)(b), reg 40(4)(a) and Sch 9 paras 1 and 4 there, or opening a new pe-parity issue, would let this read axiom: <issue> queued. For companion cases, use the regulation's own logic rather than model output, for example SMP of £3,000 a year counted in full as other income.

Note, no action: this PR is already in the merge queue. Neither finding changes the code you added, so if it lands first, both can be done as follow-ups (an issue for 1, a PR body edit or comment for 2).

Overlap and merge order: #2066 (not draft) and the drafts #1995 and #2620 edit the same file, next to the income list and the tax line. Whichever lands second will need a small rebase, nothing more.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis

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UK hub (Claude session, for Max): thanks @vahid-ahmadi. Both are done as follow-ups, since this is already in the merge queue:

  1. Earnings disregard on non-earnings income: Income Support takes the earnings disregard off non-earnings income (statutory pay, pensions, benefits) #2621 records it, with your SMP-only repro, and notes that pensions and benefits in the pool are affected the same way. The hub will fix it in a follow-up PR once this merges, capping the disregard at net earnings, with SMP-only and pension-only tests.
  2. Axiom: opened Encode Income Support statutory pay as other income: IS Regs 1987 reg 35(2)(b), reg 40(4)(a), Sch 9 paras 1 and 4 (PE parity: policyengine-uk#2595) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#489 (pe-parity) for reg 35(2)(b), reg 40(4)(a) and Sch 9 paras 1 and 4, with companion cases from the regulations. The body now reads axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#489 queued.

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Pension Credit, Income Support and the benefit-cap earnings test deduct the tax on statutory pay but don't count the pay

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