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Model the two-child limit exceptions for Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit - #2631

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Model the two-child limit exceptions for Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit#2631
vahid-ahmadi wants to merge 6 commits into
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fix-2613-two-child-limit-exceptions

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@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi commented Oct 24, 2026 •
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Summary

The Universal Credit child element limit and the Child Tax Credit limit were modelled with only the protection for children born before 6 April 2017. This PR adds the statutory exceptions, as person-level inputs that default to false, so the household calculator and reforms that reinstate a limit can apply them:

Input UC Regs 2013 Schedule 12 CTC Regs 2002
child_limit_multiple_birth_exception para 2 reg 10
child_limit_adoption_exception para 3 reg 11
child_limit_non_parental_caring_exception para 4 reg 12
child_limit_non_consensual_conception_exception para 5 reg 13
child_limit_continuation_exception para 6 reg 14

Each flag means the exception applies to that child. For multiple births, set it on every child of the pregnancy except the first, as para 2(d) and reg 10(d) require.

Universal Credit (reg 24A(1) and 24B, as at 6 April 2025):

  • uc_child_limit_disregarded: adoption and non-parental caring children (reg 24A(1)(za)). They get the element whatever their place and are left out of the order of children (reg 24B(2A)), so they no longer use up one of the two places. This applies from 28 November 2018 (SI 2018/1129 regs 1(2), 3(3) and 3(4)), through the new parameter gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.adoption_and_kinship_outside_order. Fiscal-year values are read at 30 April, so 2018-19 keeps the earlier rules.
  • uc_child_limit_exception: multiple births, non-consensual conception and continuation (reg 24A(1)(b)(ii)). A third or later child gets the element and keeps their place. Before 28 November 2018 reg 24A(1)(b)(ii) covered every Schedule 12 exception, so adoption and non-parental caring are treated the same way then.
  • uc_child_limit_position: the reg 24B order without the disregarded children. Children born on the same day are ordered so the element reaches as many as possible (reg 24B(2)), so any child with an exception comes after a child born that day without one, whatever the exception and the input order.
  • uc_individual_child_element uses these. uc_child_index, and so the higher first child amount, is unchanged.

Child Tax Credit (regs 7(2A) and 9, as at 6 April 2025):

  • ctc_child_limit_position: the reg 9(5) order, by date of birth, with the same tie rule (reg 9(6)), keyed on is_CTC_child_limit_own_exception (regs 10 to 14).
  • is_CTC_child_limit_exception: regs 10 to 14, or all, or all but one, of the other children adopted or in non-parental care (reg 9(1)(a)(ii)). The second route applies from 28 November 2018 (SI 2018/1130 regs 1 and 3(a)), through the new parameter gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.other_children_adopted_or_cared_for_exception.
  • is_CTC_child_element_included: exempt (born before 6 April 2017, or the existing age-exemption reform), within the limit in the order, or an exception. CTC_child_element and ctc_child_limit_affected now count this per child. The old count assumed exempt children were the eldest, which an exception child need not be.

The limit is removed for UC from 6 April 2026 and tax credits closed in 2025, both already on main, so this changes 2025-26 and earlier and any reform that reinstates a limit. With every flag false, results are unchanged.

Fixes #2613

Evidence

Law checked against legislation.gov.uk as in force on 6 April 2025: UC reg 24A, reg 24B, Schedule 12, and CTC Regs 2002 regs 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14. For commencement, the same provisions as in force on 27 November 2018 and 28 November 2018, with SI 2018/1129 and SI 2018/1130. The key difference between the two schemes: UC puts adoption and non-parental caring children outside the order (24A(1)(za) with 24B(2A)), while CTC keeps every child in the order and instead gives a third child an exception when all, or all but one, of the others are adopted or cared for (9(1)(a)(ii)).

Not modelled

  • UC Sch 12 para 6 continuing an adoption exception falls under reg 24A(1)(za)(ii), so that child should be left out of the order. The single continuation flag treats every continuation as a para 2 or 5 continuation, which keeps the child's place. See the open question below.
  • CTC reg 9(5)(b) orders children the claimant is not a parent or step-parent of by the date the claimant became responsible for them. The model has no such date, so it orders every child by date of birth.
  • The rules replaced on 28 November 2018 other than those above: UC reg 24B(1)(b) and (2)(b) (ordering by the date the claimant became responsible, and the 10-month birth rule), and CTC reg 9(1)(b) with 9(2), 9(4), 9(6)(b) and 9(8). The model uses the current ordering and first and second child rule for earlier years.
  • CTC reg 9(3), which extends an exception to an older child already in the family when a child with an exception joins.
  • Inferring multiple births from survey data. Microsimulation results are unchanged until the data sets these flags.

Tests

  • policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/universal_credit/child_element/uc_child_limit_exceptions.yaml, 12 cases. Eight in 2025-26 at £292.81 a month (£3,513.72 a year) for children born after 6 April 2017: no exception; each of paras 2 to 6; an exception on the second child changing nothing; and 2026-27, where the flags make no difference. The adoption case shows the disregard: an adopted eldest child plus three birth children gives 3 x £3,513.72 = £10,541.16. Then a commencement pair (two adopted children born 2011 and 2013, a birth child born May 2017): in 2017-18 the birth child is third and gets nothing; in 2019-20 the adopted children are left out of the order and it gets £2,780.04. And a same-day pair from different pregnancies, one with the non-consensual conception exception, listed in both orders: 3 x £3,513.72 = £10,541.16 either way.
  • policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/ctc_child_limit_exceptions.yaml, 12 cases at £3,455 a child in 2024-25: no exception (2 x £3,455 = £6,910); each of regs 10 to 14; twins at second and third with a younger fourth child (3 x £3,455 = £10,365; adding exception children to the old exempt count would have given £6,910); two adopted then two birth children (4 x £3,455 = £13,820 under reg 9(1)(a)(ii)); three birth children then an adopted child (£10,365); the same commencement pair (2017-18: £5,560; 2019-20: £8,340 at £2,780 a child); and the same-day pair in both orders (£10,365 either way). Every case has a continuing tax credit claim (child_tax_credit_reported above zero and would_claim_uc: false), so the cases hold once Gate the Child Tax Credit child element on eligibility #2599 gates CTC_child_element on is_CTC_eligible.
  • The four new commencement and tie cases that test changed behaviour fail at 050e7d0 and pass at the head. On a local merge of the head with main (ab3a6a5) and Gate the Child Tax Credit child element on eligibility #2599 (b454cea), both files, family/tax_credits, family/tax_credits.yaml and reforms/parametric/two_child_limit pass (61 cases). ruff check and ruff format --check pass on the changed Python.

This touches CTC_child_element.py, which #2599 also changes (it adds the is_CTC_eligible gate). Git merges the two without a conflict, and with #2599's gate the CTC tests need an eligible claim, which they now have.

Open questions

  1. UC continuation of an adoption exception (Sch 12 para 6 under reg 24A(1)(za)(ii)): keep one continuation flag treated as a para 2 or 5 continuation (this PR), or add a second flag for continued adoption exceptions so the child is left out of the order?
  2. Should a later data PR infer the multiple births exception from children in the same benefit unit with the same date of birth, as the issue suggests? FRS has no birth order within a pregnancy, and DWP's April 2025 count (17,730 households) could serve as a target.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/universal_credit/child_element/uc_child_limit_exceptions.yaml::Adoption (Sch 12 para 3) - the adopted child is left out of the order, so two birth children fill the limit
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/ctc_child_limit_exceptions.yaml::Multiple births (reg 10) - twins second and third in the order and a younger child get three elements

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#490 queued

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Model the two-child limit exceptions for UC and Child Tax Credit
8864bda 
Add a person-level input for each exception in UC Regulations 2013
Schedule 12 paragraphs 2 to 6 and CTC Regulations 2002 regs 10 to 14,
defaulting to false. UC leaves adopted children and children in
non-parental care out of the order of children (reg 24B(2A)) and pays
the element for a third or later child with any other exception. CTC
includes the individual element for a third or later child with an
exception or when all, or all but one, of the other children are
adopted or in non-parental care (reg 9(1)(a)).

Fixes #2613

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 24, 2026
Open
vahid-ahmadi and others added 2 commits October 24, 2026 11:02
@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Limit the CTC exception flag to a third or later child
04278e2 
Reg 9(1)(a) applies to a third or later child; reg 9(1)(b) covers the
first and second. Amounts are unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Rewrap the CTC exception documentation
050e7d0 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 24, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base ab3a6a5d7e against head 9368052f84, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 86 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main ab3a6a5d7e uk 2.153.3 (files b201444eabd0), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 e7aa6a926cfa 8d321bae91af 1633.35s
head #2631 merged into main 9368052f84 uk 2.153.3 (files 1b538b7e198f), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 e7aa6a926cfa 8d321bae91af 1638.47s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.50bn £4.52bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.36bn £0.37bn £0.39bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.35bn £7.50bn £7.65bn £7.83bn £8.02bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.22bn £9.37bn £9.64bn £9.91bn £10.20bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.03bn £2.07bn £2.12bn £2.17bn £2.22bn £2.26bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,488k 1,470k 1,473k 1,476k 1,475k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,600k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,256k 1,242k 1,246k 1,250k 1,252k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,225k 3,248k 3,266k 3,282k 3,295k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £904.02bn £948.22bn £986.59bn £1,021.15bn £1,061.16bn £1,098.47bn £1,140.69bn
Government spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.80bn † £560.99bn † £569.57bn † £578.78bn † £587.89bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £373.44bn † £402.63bn † £432.79bn † £460.16bn † £491.59bn † £519.69bn † £552.80bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £904.02bn £948.22bn £986.59bn £1,021.15bn £1,061.16bn £1,098.47bn £1,140.69bn
household_tax £497.67bn £528.51bn £555.73bn £579.27bn £605.22bn £630.03bn £658.08bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.85bn £520.38bn £547.38bn £570.23bn £595.94bn £620.49bn £648.19bn
gov_spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.80bn † £560.99bn † £569.57bn † £578.78bn † £587.89bn †
household_benefits £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.80bn † £560.99bn † £569.57bn † £578.78bn † £587.89bn †
gov_balance £373.44bn † £402.63bn † £432.79bn † £460.16bn † £491.59bn † £519.69bn † £552.80bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,650.70bn † £1,695.57bn † £1,727.87bn † £1,760.76bn † £1,793.15bn † £1,834.40bn † £1,884.74bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,462.17bn £1,509.90bn £1,544.25bn £1,577.67bn £1,612.09bn £1,651.53bn £1,702.40bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 22.1% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.1% 31.1% 31.5% 32.0% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.4% 12.6% 12.7% 13.0% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.3% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.8% 14.0% 14.2% 13.9% 14.0% 14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.2% 21.2% 21.4% 21.4% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.1% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.4% 12.1% 12.0% 12.1% 12.4%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,163k 10,583k 10,852k 11,004k 11,081k 11,222k 11,226k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,260k 3,284k 3,310k 3,369k 3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,902k 5,806k 6,080k 6,197k 6,234k 6,304k 6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,632k 1,556k 1,512k 1,523k 1,537k 1,550k 1,556k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,000k 14,571k 14,945k 15,112k 15,392k 15,663k 15,804k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,703k 4,723k 4,808k 4,897k 4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,476k 8,431k 8,812k 8,952k 9,130k 9,273k 9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,484k 1,430k 1,437k 1,455k 1,492k 1,497k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,974k 11,507k 11,535k 11,642k 11,544k 11,663k 11,712k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,543k 3,553k 3,489k 3,519k 3,522k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,378k 6,475k 6,460k 6,538k 6,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,753k 1,615k 1,613k 1,595k 1,606k 1,628k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,732k 14,872k 14,931k 15,091k 15,202k 15,461k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,686k 4,669k 4,725k 4,754k 4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,516k 8,764k 8,884k 8,992k 9,060k 9,192k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,422k 1,378k 1,374k 1,388k 1,429k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3061 0.3067 0.3073 0.3077 0.3083 0.3093
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,768 † £17,884 † £17,830 † £17,847 † £18,125 † £18,315 † £18,440 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,995 † £28,845 † £28,594 † £29,012 † £29,189 † £29,600 † £30,278 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,275 † £35,509 † £36,037 † £36,498 † £36,760 † £37,372 † £37,928 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,650 † £40,696 † £41,778 † £42,415 † £43,055 † £43,779 † £44,259 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,775 † £44,546 † £45,584 † £46,298 † £47,371 † £48,231 † £49,554 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,323 † £49,547 † £50,591 † £51,565 † £51,587 † £53,193 † £54,178 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,215 † £57,308 † £58,072 † £58,467 † £59,609 † £60,184 † £61,764 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,098 † £70,411 † £71,825 † £72,849 † £74,256 † £75,374 † £77,582 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,578 † £81,719 † £82,750 † £84,111 † £85,450 † £86,991 † £89,920 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,506 † £120,013 † £121,860 † £123,908 † £125,844 † £128,160 † £130,960 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-8.06bn £-8.18bn £-8.43bn £-8.60bn £-8.96bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@juaristi22 juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 24, 2026
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Reviewed at 050e7d0ac39b67f472702a737989d76b2322ec07. Two P2 findings are attached inline: the expanded adoption/kinship rules apply before their November 2018 commencement, and same-date exception ordering changes final awards when input rows are swapped.

All 17 focused tests passed, but a separate actual-model diagnostic reproduces both omitted paths in final UC and CTC awards. Independent source review checked 17 primary statutory originals, including the historical amendments. The same-date finding concerns supported current-law flags and correctly known birth dates; it is separate from the documented responsibility-date and continuation-history limitations.

Comment thread policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/universal_credit/child_element/uc_child_limit_disregarded.py
"https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2013/376/regulation/24B/2025-04-06",
)

def formula(person, period, parameters):

@juaristi22 juaristi22 Oct 24, 2026

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[P2] Start the expanded adoption/kinship rules at their commencement

This undated formula applies the expanded disregard before its 28 November 2018 commencement (SI 2018/1129, regulations 1 and 3). In 2017, two adopted children born in 2011/2013 still occupied the first two positions, so a biological third child born May 2017 had no child element. The new flags instead add £2,780.04 to final UC; the parallel undated CTC expansion adds £2,780. Gate both expanded routes by commencement under the model date convention, retaining earlier rules, and test a pre/post pair.

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi Oct 24, 2026

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@juaristi22 agreed, and it was our omission: we read the law only as at 6 April 2025. Fixed in 823f5d6 (code in c0d98df).

  • SI 2018/1129 regs 1(2), 3(3) and 3(4) inserted UC reg 24A(1)(za) and reg 24B(2A) from 28 November 2018. Before then reg 24A(1)(b)(ii) covered every Schedule 12 exception, so an adopted or kinship child kept their place and got the element only as a third or later child.
  • SI 2018/1130 regs 1 and 3(a) inserted CTC reg 9(1)(a)(ii), the "all, or all but one, adopted or cared for" route, from the same date.
  • Two dated parameters now gate them: gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.adoption_and_kinship_outside_order and gov.dwp.tax_credits.child_tax_credit.limit.other_children_adopted_or_cared_for_exception, false until 2018-11-28. The model reads fiscal-year values at 30 April, so 2018-19 keeps the earlier rules and 2019-20 is the first year with the new ones. Before commencement, UC treats adoption and kinship as ordinary third-child exceptions in uc_child_limit_exception.
  • Your case is now a pre/post pair in both YAML files (two adopted children born 2011 and 2013, a birth child born May 2017). In 2017-18 the birth child gets nothing (UC £0, CTC £5,560 in total). In 2019-20 it gets £2,780.04 in UC and £2,780 in CTC. Both 2017 cases fail at 050e7d0.
  • The body's "Not modelled" now lists the other rules replaced that day: UC reg 24B(1)(b) and (2)(b), and CTC reg 9(1)(b) with 9(2), 9(4), 9(6)(b) and 9(8).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Comment thread policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/universal_credit/child_element/uc_child_limit_position.py Outdated
# available for as many as possible, so a child with the multiple
# births exception comes after a sibling born that day without it.
multiple_birth = person("child_limit_multiple_birth_exception", period)
order_key = birth_day(person, period) + 0.5 * multiple_birth

@juaristi22 juaristi22 Oct 24, 2026

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[P2] Optimise all same-date exception ties, not only multiple births

The tie key handles only multiple births, but UC regulation 24B(2) and CTC regulation 9(6) require the ordering that includes the greatest number of children. In a blended family with an eldest child and two younger same-date children from different pregnancies, one with the pre-assessed non-consensual-conception exception, swapping the younger input rows changes final 2025 UC from £14,564.64 to £18,078.36 and final 2024 CTC from £6,910 to £10,365. Both multiple-birth flags are false; neither UC award is capped. Apply exception-aware tie optimisation to both ordering variables and add this permutation regression.

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi Oct 24, 2026

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@juaristi22 agreed, the tie key wrongly assumed only multiple births could share a date. Fixed in c0d98df.

  • uc_child_limit_position now puts any child with uc_child_limit_exception (paras 2, 5 and 6, and paras 3 and 4 before November 2018) after the children born that day without one. A child with an exception gets the element in any place, so this gives the element to as many as possible, as reg 24B(2) requires.
  • ctc_child_limit_position does the same with a new variable, is_CTC_child_limit_own_exception (regs 10 to 14), for reg 9(6). It reads the input flags only, so the position does not depend on itself.
  • Your permutation is now a regression in both files: an eldest child and two same-day children from different pregnancies, one with the non-consensual conception exception, listed in both orders. UC child element is £10,541.16 (3 x £3,513.72) and CTC £10,365 either way. The "listed first" cases fail at 050e7d0.

One more change in 823f5d6: #2599 gates CTC_child_element on is_CTC_eligible, which cut every CTC case here to £0 on a merge with it. Each CTC case now has a continuing tax credit claim (child_tax_credit_reported: 1_000, would_claim_uc: false), as in your #2599 fixtures. On a local merge of this head with main and #2599 (b454cea), 1,548 YAML cases under finance/benefit, two_child_limit and social_security_scotland pass, as do 187 pytest cases in the 13 related property, registry and unit test files (1 skipped).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi marked this pull request as ready for review October 24, 2026 15:00
@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 24, 2026
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vahid-ahmadi and others added 3 commits October 24, 2026 16:15
@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Start the expanded adoption and kinship rules at commencement and opt…
c0d98df 
…imise all same-day ties

UC reg 24A(1)(za) and 24B(2A) and CTC reg 9(1)(a)(ii) came into force on
28 November 2018 (SI 2018/1129, SI 2018/1130). Before then adopted children
and those in non-parental care kept their place in the order. Same-day ties
now put any child with an exception after those without, as UC reg 24B(2)
and CTC reg 9(6) require. CTC tests claim tax credits, not UC, so they hold
once CTC_child_element is gated on eligibility (#2599).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Give the CTC exception tests a continuing tax credit claim
823f5d6 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Widen the two-child limit exceptions changelog entry
362350c 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi

vahid-ahmadi commented Oct 24, 2026

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Decision on the open question: we will not model the pre-28 November 2018 ordering rules. They only affect historical years and no dataset sets these exception flags. Left as listed under "Not modelled".

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Model the two-child limit exceptions in UC Regulations Schedule 12 and the CTC equivalent

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@vahid-ahmadi @juaristi22