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Correct the Widowed Parent's Allowance description - #2635

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Oct 25, 2026
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Correct the Widowed Parent's Allowance description#2635
vahid-ahmadi merged 2 commits into
mainfrom
docfix-wpa-lpg-oct24

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@vahid-ahmadi

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi commented Oct 24, 2026 •
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Summary

One description fix. No formula, parameter or data change.

widowed_parents_allowance_reported said Widowed Parent's Allowance was "closed to new claims since 6 April 2017". It is closed for deaths on or after that date. A new claim can still be made where the partner died before 6 April 2017.

This PR first also changed the liquid_fuel_consumption description to exclude bottled LPG. That half was wrong and has been dropped, so those files are back to main's text. Microcosm UK maps liquid_fuel_consumption to LCF parts b017, c45312, b018 and c45222, which include bottled gas. #2643 documents this correctly.

Evidence

  • SSCBA 1992 s.39A(1)(a) applies where the partner "has died before the day on which section 30 of the Pensions Act 2014 comes into force", which is 6 April 2017 (SI 2017/297).
  • GOV.UK: "You can only make a new claim for WPA if your partner died before 6 April 2017."
  • The variable has no formula, and widowed_parents_allowance only adds it, so nothing relied on the wrong reading.

Tests

  • pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_heating_fuel_inputs.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_widowed_parents_allowance.py: 10 passed.
  • policyengine-core test policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/widowed_parents_allowance.yaml -c policyengine_uk: 7 passed.
  • ruff check and ruff format --check on the changed Python: clean.

Reproducer: n/a: description and reference only; model behaviour and dependencies are unchanged
axiom: n/a: description-only change, no policy logic

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Correct the WPA and liquid fuel descriptions
ee51481 
Widowed Parent's Allowance is closed for deaths on or after 6 April 2017,
not to new claims (SSCBA 1992 s.39A(1); GOV.UK). Bottled LPG is gas in
COICOP (04.5.2), not a liquid fuel (04.5.3). Descriptions only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 24, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base ab3a6a5d7e against head 9299035fd3, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 86 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main ab3a6a5d7e uk 2.153.3 (files b201444eabd0), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 e7aa6a926cfa 8d321bae91af 1614.54s
head #2635 merged into main 9299035fd3 uk 2.153.3 (files aaf5674b6574), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 e7aa6a926cfa 8d321bae91af 1653.32s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.50bn £4.52bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.36bn £0.37bn £0.39bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.35bn £7.50bn £7.65bn £7.83bn £8.02bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.22bn £9.37bn £9.64bn £9.91bn £10.20bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.03bn £2.07bn £2.12bn £2.17bn £2.22bn £2.26bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,488k 1,470k 1,473k 1,476k 1,475k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,600k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,256k 1,242k 1,246k 1,250k 1,252k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,225k 3,248k 3,266k 3,282k 3,295k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £904.02bn £948.22bn £986.59bn £1,021.15bn £1,061.16bn £1,098.47bn £1,140.69bn
Government spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.80bn † £560.99bn † £569.57bn † £578.78bn † £587.89bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £373.44bn † £402.63bn † £432.79bn † £460.16bn † £491.59bn † £519.69bn † £552.80bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £904.02bn £948.22bn £986.59bn £1,021.15bn £1,061.16bn £1,098.47bn £1,140.69bn
household_tax £497.67bn £528.51bn £555.73bn £579.27bn £605.22bn £630.03bn £658.08bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.85bn £520.38bn £547.38bn £570.23bn £595.94bn £620.49bn £648.19bn
gov_spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.80bn † £560.99bn † £569.57bn † £578.78bn † £587.89bn †
household_benefits £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.80bn † £560.99bn † £569.57bn † £578.78bn † £587.89bn †
gov_balance £373.44bn † £402.63bn † £432.79bn † £460.16bn † £491.59bn † £519.69bn † £552.80bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,650.70bn † £1,695.57bn † £1,727.87bn † £1,760.76bn † £1,793.15bn † £1,834.40bn † £1,884.74bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,462.17bn £1,509.90bn £1,544.25bn £1,577.67bn £1,612.09bn £1,651.53bn £1,702.40bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 22.1% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.1% 31.1% 31.5% 32.0% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.4% 12.6% 12.7% 13.0% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.3% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.8% 14.0% 14.2% 13.9% 14.0% 14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.2% 21.2% 21.4% 21.4% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.1% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.4% 12.1% 12.0% 12.1% 12.4%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,163k 10,583k 10,852k 11,004k 11,081k 11,222k 11,226k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,260k 3,284k 3,310k 3,369k 3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,902k 5,806k 6,080k 6,197k 6,234k 6,304k 6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,632k 1,556k 1,512k 1,523k 1,537k 1,550k 1,556k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,000k 14,571k 14,945k 15,112k 15,392k 15,663k 15,804k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,703k 4,723k 4,808k 4,897k 4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,476k 8,431k 8,812k 8,952k 9,130k 9,273k 9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,484k 1,430k 1,437k 1,455k 1,492k 1,497k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,974k 11,507k 11,535k 11,642k 11,544k 11,663k 11,712k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,543k 3,553k 3,489k 3,519k 3,522k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,378k 6,475k 6,460k 6,538k 6,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,753k 1,615k 1,613k 1,595k 1,606k 1,628k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,732k 14,872k 14,931k 15,091k 15,202k 15,461k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,686k 4,669k 4,725k 4,754k 4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,516k 8,764k 8,884k 8,992k 9,060k 9,192k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,422k 1,378k 1,374k 1,388k 1,429k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3061 0.3067 0.3073 0.3077 0.3083 0.3093
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,768 † £17,884 † £17,830 † £17,847 † £18,125 † £18,315 † £18,440 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,995 † £28,845 † £28,594 † £29,012 † £29,189 † £29,600 † £30,278 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,275 † £35,509 † £36,037 † £36,498 † £36,760 † £37,372 † £37,928 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,650 † £40,696 † £41,778 † £42,415 † £43,055 † £43,779 † £44,259 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,775 † £44,546 † £45,584 † £46,298 † £47,371 † £48,231 † £49,554 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,323 † £49,547 † £50,591 † £51,565 † £51,587 † £53,193 † £54,178 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,215 † £57,308 † £58,072 † £58,467 † £59,609 † £60,184 † £61,764 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,098 † £70,411 † £71,825 † £72,849 † £74,256 † £75,374 † £77,582 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,578 † £81,719 † £82,750 † £84,111 † £85,450 † £86,991 † £89,920 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,506 † £120,013 † £121,860 † £123,908 † £125,844 † £128,160 † £130,960 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-8.06bn £-8.18bn £-8.43bn £-8.60bn £-8.96bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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vahid-ahmadi marked this pull request as ready for review October 24, 2026 13:45
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vahid-ahmadi added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 24, 2026
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vahid-ahmadi removed this pull request from the merge queue due to a manual request Oct 24, 2026
@vahid-ahmadi @claude
Drop the liquid fuel description changes
6dc9be3 
Microcosm maps liquid_fuel_consumption to LCF parts that include bottled
gas, so main's text was right; #2643 documents it. Keep the WPA fix.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi changed the title Correct the Widowed Parent's Allowance and liquid fuel descriptions Correct the Widowed Parent's Allowance description Oct 24, 2026
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vahid-ahmadi commented Oct 24, 2026

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Dropped the liquid fuel half of this PR in 6dc9be3. It was wrong: Microcosm UK maps liquid_fuel_consumption to LCF parts b017, c45312, b018 and c45222, so it includes bottled gas, and #2643 documents that correctly. liquid_fuel_consumption.py, the heating fuel test docstring and comment, and the uprating_indices.yaml comment are back to main's text, and the changelog fragment now covers only the Widowed Parent's Allowance fix, which is unchanged. Nothing left here touches a file #2643 changes.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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vahid-ahmadi added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 24, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 3c53af5 Oct 25, 2026
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vahid-ahmadi deleted the docfix-wpa-lpg-oct24 branch October 25, 2026 00:57
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