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Count widowed parent's allowance as Pension Credit income - #2645

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Count widowed parent's allowance as Pension Credit income#2645
MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
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fix/pension-credit-widowed-parents-allowance

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 24, 2026 •
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Draft until CI's Aggregate impact at the new head and the re-review are in. Found while answering the triple-lock project's report that PE-UK 2.153.4 fails the counted_once check for widowed_parents_allowance under pension_credit on Microcosm data.

What and why

State Pension Credit Regulations 2002 reg 15(1) prescribe "all social security benefits" as income except a closed list. The list excepts bereavement support payment (n) but not widowed parent's allowance (WPA). Sch IV para 7, applied by reg 17(7), disregards "£10 of any widowed parent's allowance to which the claimant is entitled under section 39A of the 1992 Act", and reg 14 applies Part III's references to the claimant equally to the partner. Reg 9 does not make WPA non-qualifying income for Savings Credit.

gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.income left WPA out. Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment treat WPA as an overlapping benefit (overlapping_benefits.yaml, Overlapping Benefits Regulations 1979), so a reported WPA award cut the carer's benefit by the award, Pension Credit income fell by the same amount, and Guarantee Credit replaced it pound for pound. On main 57152b585, a single pensioner aged 70 with no State Pension who cares 35 hours a week gets Guarantee Credit of £10,384.40 in 2026; adding £1,000 of reported WPA cuts Carer's Allowance from £4,495.40 to £3,495.40 and raises Guarantee Credit to £11,384.40. On this branch Pension Credit counts the £1,000 less £520 (£10 a week), so Guarantee Credit rises by only the £520 disregarded, to £10,904.40.

The omission came in with #2573 (a1ff54241, released in 2.149.0), which added the overlap list entry; 2.147.2, the Budget certification pin, is not affected.

SSCBA 1992 s.39A(4) and (5) end WPA at pensionable age and suspend it while the recipient lives with a partner, so a lawful award should not meet a Pension Credit assessment, and the variable's documentation said so. The model takes a reported award as given, though, and every other means test it feeds counts WPA: pension-age Housing Benefit less £15 a week (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 Sch 5 para 7), Universal Credit (UC Regs 2013 reg 66(1)(b)(vi)), Council Tax Reduction, Income Support and tax credits. This PR counts it for Pension Credit as reg 15(1) and Sch IV para 7 do: each member's allowance less £10 a week.

Changes:

  • pension_credit_widowed_parents_allowance_income (new, benefit unit): the claimant's and partner's WPA, each less £10 a week, floored at nil, on the model of pension_credit_war_pension_income (Sch IV para 1).
  • gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.widowed_parents_allowance_disregard (new): £10 a week, citing Sch IV para 7 and reg 17(7).
  • guarantee_credit/income.yaml: add the new variable, with the reasoning.
  • widowed_parents_allowance.py: the documentation now says how a reported award is counted.
  • The per-member reading (reg 14) is logged with the hub's statute readings. It matters only where the partner has an allowance, which s.39A(5)(b) rules out for a lawful award.

Impact

CI's Aggregate impact run 40151367018 at 352c9e890 (base main e6f8bb1003 against merge 46f270c4a6, certified eFRS 1.58.1, 2025-26 to 2031-32): no figure changes in any year, with 0 moves flagged, 0 newly broken checks, and no household's net income changing. Only benefit units with a reported WPA and a Pension Credit assessment can change, and on this dataset none moves. Where such a unit exists, against main:

  • Guarantee Credit falls or stays the same, never rises: this PR only adds each member's WPA above £10 a week to Pension Credit income. (Main already lets WPA displace Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment, so that part is unchanged.)
  • Within this PR's rules, a larger WPA award lowers Guarantee Credit pound for pound above the disregard. Where the extra WPA displaces Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment, Guarantee Credit can instead rise, by up to the £520 a year disregarded, because the displaced benefit counted in full.
  • Savings Credit can rise, because the counted WPA is qualifying income.
  • Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction can fall on their savings-credit-only routes, which take the Pension Credit assessment.

Invariants (tested)

test_pension_credit_widowed_parents_allowance_properties.py (Hypothesis, the families of test_pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_properties.py with a WPA award on the first adult):

  1. Pound for pound: the extra Pension Credit income is the extra WPA above £10 a week, less the extra pre-charge income tax and National Insurance, less any Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment it displaces. While Guarantee Credit is positive it falls by exactly that, and it never rises where no carer's benefit is displaced.
    • An explicit example covers a carer in England (Carer's Allowance) and in Scotland (Carer Support Payment).
    • A separate test checks that £1,000 of WPA displacing £1,000 of either lowers Pension Credit income, and raises Guarantee Credit, by exactly £520.
  2. Differential: where neither credit is due and Housing Benefit income is above its zero floor, pension-age Housing Benefit applicable income equals Pension Credit income less the extra £5 a week Housing Benefit disregards: min(WPA, £15 × 52) − min(WPA, £10 × 52).
  3. Savings Credit: WPA is qualifying income, so Savings Credit income moves exactly with Pension Credit income wherever neither is floored.

YAML (pension_credit_widowed_parents_allowance.yaml, rates from SI 2026/148): the cases are listed below.

  • single and couple Pension Credit income and Guarantee Credit;
  • the Carer's Allowance displacement;
  • Savings Credit at age 80;
  • pension-age Housing Benefit's £15 disregard;
  • each member's own £10 (Case 6);
  • an allowance under £10 a week counting as nil (Case 7).

Review

An independent review (Opus 5.5, in session) requested changes at e4eb40c8a:

  • B1: Sch IV para 7 disregards £10 a week of WPA, and the PR counted it in full.
  • B2: the Axiom extension carried the same error.
  • N3: main's Pension Credit income now deducts pre-charge income tax (income_tax_before_winter_fuel_payment_charge), so the properties use the shared INCOME_TAX.

a554c0b23 merges main, and 352c9e890 fixes B1 and N3. The corrected extension fixes B2. A re-review at the new head is pending.

Test plan

  • YAML tests whose expected values come from SI 2026/148 rates and hand arithmetic: 7 cases, and the war pension cases alongside them, pass.
  • Property tests: the 4 new and the 4 prescribed-benefit properties pass (-n 2).
  • Mutants, each run against the 7 YAML cases and the 4 new properties:
    • No £10 disregard (the parameter set to 0): all 7 cases and 3 of the 4 properties fail.
    • The raw allowance back in the income list: 7 cases and 3 properties fail.
    • The allowance left out (main before this PR): 6 of the 7 cases fail; Case 7 (under £10 a week) passes, as it should. Its property run was stopped early to free the host for the Budget certification run.
    • One £10 per benefit unit instead of per member: not run yet. Case 6 expects 960 where that mutant gives 1,480.
  • ruff format and ruff check on the changed files.
  • The counted-once guard. Locally, on three pensioner households, it passed on main and at e4eb40c8a: on main it reports Pension Credit's response through Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment as mediated, and at e4eb40c8a there was none. At 352c9e890, CI's Aggregate impact run 40151367018 raised each of 87 components by £1 a unit in 2026-27: 0 failed and 0 were skipped. For widowed_parents_allowance, Pension Credit responds only through other heads (Carer's Allowance) in fewer than 10 households, which the check reports as mediated, not a failure. That fits a displacing award moving Pension Credit income by the £520 disregarded.
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/pension-credit-widowed-parents-allowance.fixed.md.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_pension_credit_widowed_parents_allowance_properties.py::test_an_award_that_displaces_a_carer_benefit_raises_guarantee_credit_by_the_disregard, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_widowed_parents_allowance.yaml

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#390 queued

(The corrected Extension 7 on #390, TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#390 (comment), queues reg 15(1), Sch IV para 7 and reg 9 for widowed parent's allowance; it replaces the first version, which said Sch IV disregards none of it. #485 queues the Housing Benefit £15 disregard.)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Count widowed parent's allowance as Pension Credit income
e4eb40c 
SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(1) prescribes all social security benefits except a
closed list, which excepts bereavement support payment but not widowed
parent's allowance; Sch IV disregards none of it. The guarantee credit
income list left it out while Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment
treat it as an overlapping benefit, so a reported award displaced the
carer's benefit and Guarantee Credit replaced it pound for pound.

Adds YAML cases and property tests: Guarantee Credit falls pound for pound
with the allowance net of tax and any carer's benefit it displaces; pension-
age Housing Benefit counts it less £15 a week (SI 2006/214 Sch 5 para 7);
Savings Credit counts it as qualifying income.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 24, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base e6f8bb1003 against head 46f270c4a6, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,346,675 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,887,703 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,090,734 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 87 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main e6f8bb1003 uk 2.157.0 (files 5e710b1a11aa), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 f0f2af2ab69f 4a0306493d82 1725.82s
head #2645 merged into main 46f270c4a6 uk 2.157.0 (files f354c26cff8e), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 f0f2af2ab69f 4a0306493d82 1757.03s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.00bn £158.47bn £163.28bn £167.71bn £174.87bn £180.28bn £187.05bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.79bn £8.09bn £8.31bn £8.51bn £8.72bn £8.97bn £9.28bn
VAT £251.45bn £257.40bn £263.96bn £270.05bn £276.34bn £282.83bn £289.13bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.57bn £9.83bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,174k 3,198k 3,208k 3,228k 3,243k 3,256k 3,263k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £900.25bn £943.35bn £981.62bn £1,015.37bn £1,054.40bn £1,090.63bn £1,130.72bn
Government spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.73bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £371.38bn † £399.68bn † £430.20bn † £457.66bn † £488.27bn † £515.85bn † £547.99bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £900.25bn £943.35bn £981.62bn £1,015.37bn £1,054.40bn £1,090.63bn £1,130.72bn
household_tax £496.79bn £527.48bn £554.39bn £577.61bn £603.19bn £627.52bn £654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.73bn †
household_benefits £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.73bn †
gov_balance £371.38bn † £399.68bn † £430.20bn † £457.66bn † £488.27bn † £515.85bn † £547.99bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.46bn † £1,688.65bn † £1,719.42bn † £1,750.39bn † £1,781.36bn † £1,820.67bn † £1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.62bn £1,504.74bn £1,537.75bn £1,569.43bn £1,602.65bn £1,640.37bn £1,686.54bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.6% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.2% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.3% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.2% 31.2% 30.9% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.8% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,039k 10,465k 10,769k 10,890k 10,992k 11,057k 11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,579k 3,171k 3,230k 3,240k 3,280k 3,300k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,843k 5,744k 6,034k 6,134k 6,183k 6,218k 6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,616k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,840k 14,418k 14,804k 15,005k 15,265k 15,430k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,667k 4,687k 4,755k 4,820k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,401k 8,356k 8,734k 8,907k 9,048k 9,135k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,503k 1,453k 1,404k 1,412k 1,461k 1,475k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,889k 11,389k 11,463k 11,483k 11,421k 11,523k 11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,915k 3,517k 3,517k 3,489k 3,449k 3,489k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,197k 6,128k 6,335k 6,397k 6,384k 6,437k 6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,587k 1,596k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,943k 14,585k 14,741k 14,808k 14,951k 15,039k 15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,967k 4,674k 4,650k 4,630k 4,691k 4,712k 4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,441k 8,448k 8,700k 8,836k 8,916k 8,976k 9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,535k 1,463k 1,391k 1,342k 1,344k 1,352k 1,463k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3084 0.3058 0.3064 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,768 † £17,862 † £17,836 † £17,888 † £18,172 † £18,307 † £18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,982 † £28,857 † £28,628 † £28,890 † £29,105 † £29,623 † £30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,464 † £36,042 † £36,505 † £36,776 † £37,317 † £38,131 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,272 † £40,694 † £41,877 † £42,377 † £43,098 † £43,915 † £44,181 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,318 † £44,626 † £45,562 † £46,292 † £47,361 † £48,268 † £49,576 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,188 † £49,519 † £50,747 † £51,489 † £52,191 † £53,186 † £54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,167 † £57,131 † £57,764 † £58,177 † £58,914 † £59,920 † £61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,200 † £70,962 † £71,797 † £73,234 † £74,254 † £75,668 † £77,426 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,493 † £81,039 † £82,842 † £84,144 † £85,534 † £87,055 † £89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,577 † £120,291 † £121,928 † £124,157 † £126,037 † £128,333 † £131,101 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.29bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.24bn £4.46bn £4.73bn £4.92bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.08bn £-4.18bn £-4.24bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.58bn £-1.47bn £-1.37bn £-1.26bn £-1.16bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.40bn £-20.95bn £-21.38bn £-21.63bn £-21.88bn £-22.23bn £-22.62bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.46bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.41bn £12.73bn £13.12bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.90bn £25.56bn £26.15bn £26.76bn £27.39bn £28.04bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.32bn £-3.36bn £-3.41bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.77bn £-8.02bn £-8.00bn £-8.12bn £-8.37bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.90bn £25.56bn £26.15bn £26.76bn £27.39bn £28.04bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 24, 2026 21:17
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge main into fix/pension-credit-widowed-parents-allowance
a554c0b 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Disregard £10 a week of widowed parent's allowance for Pension Credit
352c9e8 
SPC Regs 2002 Sch IV para 7, applied by reg 17(7), disregards "£10 of any
widowed parent's allowance to which the claimant is entitled under section
39A of the 1992 Act". The independent review found the PR counted it in full.
A new benefit-unit variable, pension_credit_widowed_parents_allowance_income,
counts the claimant's and partner's allowances each less £10 a week (reg 14
applies Part III's references to the claimant equally to a partner), as
pension_credit_war_pension_income does for Sch IV para 1, and replaces the
raw allowance in the income list.

The YAML cases are corrected by hand from SI 2026/148 rates. Case 4 is
retuned to stay inside the Savings Credit window. Cases 6 and 7 pin the
per-member reading and an allowance under £10 a week. The property tests
now expect a displacing award to raise Guarantee Credit by the £520
disregarded, use the pre-charge income tax that main's Pension Credit
income deducts, and expect Housing Benefit to differ by the extra £5 a week.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 25, 2026 03:13
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 25, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit be50540 Oct 25, 2026
21 of 22 checks passed
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix/pension-credit-widowed-parents-allowance branch October 25, 2026 04:17
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 352c9e890, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 25, 2026
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MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 25, 2026
@MaxGhenis @claude
Compare Guarantee Credit pound for pound only where it is paid at bot…
216ef35 
…h amounts

Round 2 review N4 of #2645: the mask looked only at the later amount, so a
draw where Guarantee Credit starts from zero would fail although the model is
right. Adds that case (a carer with IIDB) as an explicit example.

Fixes #2652

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 25, 2026
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