[juaristi22]

Fixes #2674

Reported Council Tax Reduction stayed at its data-year cash value while projected council tax bills grew. This reduced the share of the bill covered for working-age claimants whose local scheme uses the reported fallback.

Project each existing person-level report with its household's council tax factor, including the existing country receipts and household-weight adjustment. Reset the report alongside the bill when economic assumptions are disabled. Preserve missing report columns and Northern Ireland's flat factor. Document the constant-share projection assumption and its limits.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py::test_reported_reduction_keeps_each_persons_share_of_their_household_bill; policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py::test_unsupported_working_age_claim_keeps_half_the_projected_council_tax_bill

Eight new regression cases cover one- and multi-year projections, multiple people per household, shuffled household IDs, country factors, zero awards, sparse columns, reset/reprojection and the actual unsupported English working-age fallback. The unchanged base fails three causal cases: the 2025 and 2030 share-of-bill cases, and the unsupported working-age fallback case listed above. The reset test remains separate regression protection: policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py::test_reset_restores_reported_reduction_and_reprojection_is_deterministic passes on the unchanged base and guards reset behavior once reported awards grow. At ea9ee921b, the combined local suite passed all 104 tests in 137.02 seconds, and uv run --frozen --no-sync make format passed formatting and lint.

The change applies to materialized dataset projection. It does not change statutory eligibility or award formulas. Beyond the stored horizon, both bill and report retain their existing cash-value carry-forward behavior. No private population run or Northern Ireland benefit classification audit was performed. Northern Ireland follow-up will check whether nonzero reported amounts represent domestic rate relief and determine the appropriate classification and projection after that audit.

axiom: n/a: microsimulation dataset projection of reported inputs; no statutory formula or parameter changes.

Local test command: uv run --frozen --no-sync pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_no_economic_assumptions.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_uprating_inputs_reach_data.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_water_uprating.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_domestic_rates_uprating.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_rent_uprating.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_projection_horizon.py policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_uprating_declarations.py -q

The changelog cites the historical enhanced_frs_2024_25 CI comparison at ea9ee921b against fba0c0a53, as summarized in Vahid’s review. This round adds no new population measurement.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base fba0c0a53e against head c0d48050eb, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 46 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£51,516	£51,914	+£398
Council Tax Reduction	2031-32	£2.25bn	£2.89bn	+£638.6m
Council Tax Reduction	2030-31	£2.21bn	£2.74bn	+£536.4m
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£28,514	£28,654	+£140
Council Tax Reduction	2029-30	£2.16bn	£2.60bn	+£441.3m
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£58,266	£58,010	-£256
Council Tax Reduction	2028-29	£2.11bn	£2.46bn	+£349.2m
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£30,132	£30,235	+£103
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£49,557	£49,710	+£153
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£36,752	£36,851	+£100
Council Tax Reduction	2027-28	£2.07bn	£2.32bn	+£252.2m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£38,128	£38,043	-£85
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2030-31	23.0%	22.8%	-0.22pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	23.3%	23.1%	-0.22pp
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£28,855	£28,917	+£62
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£44,532	£44,626	+£94
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£29,157	£29,096	-£61
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£18,445	£18,482	+£38
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2030-31	3,492k	3,458k	-33.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	3,550k	3,516k	-33.2k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£53,079	£53,174	+£95
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£17,876	£17,906	+£30
Council Tax Reduction	2026-27	£2.02bn	£2.18bn	+£163.9m
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2031-32	6,270k	6,219k	-50.9k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	21.7%	21.5%	-0.15pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2027-28	30.9%	30.8%	-0.15pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2028-29	21.5%	21.3%	-0.14pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	3,284k	3,261k	-23.1k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2027-28	21.5%	21.4%	-0.14pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2028-29	3,242k	3,220k	-21.5k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2027-28	3,232k	3,211k	-20.9k
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£18,315	£18,339	+£24
Government balance, each receipt once	2031-32	£546.36bn	£545.72bn	-£638.7m
gov_balance	2031-32	£546.36bn	£545.72bn	-£638.7m
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2031-32	14.3%	14.2%	-0.12pp
gov_spending	2031-32	£582.74bn	£583.37bn	+£638.6m
household_benefits	2031-32	£582.74bn	£583.37bn	+£638.6m
Government spending	2031-32	£582.74bn	£583.37bn	+£638.6m
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	22.8%	22.7%	-0.11pp
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£36,103	£36,065	-£39

6 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
VAT on private school fees	0	0	0	+£0.3m	-£72,986	+£1.8m	-£96,182

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	+£89.9m	+£163.9m	+£252.2m	+£349.2m	+£441.3m	+£536.4m	+£638.6m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	0	0	+£0.3m	-£72,986	+£1.8m	-£96,182
Government spending	+£89.9m †	+£163.9m †	+£252.2m †	+£349.2m †	+£441.3m †	+£536.4m †	+£638.6m †
Government balance, each receipt once	-£89.9m †	-£163.9m †	-£252.2m †	-£348.9m †	-£441.4m †	-£534.6m †	-£638.7m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	0	0	+£0.3m	-£72,986	+£1.8m	-£96,182
gov_spending	+£89.9m †	+£163.9m †	+£252.2m †	+£349.2m †	+£441.3m †	+£536.4m †	+£638.6m †
household_benefits	+£89.9m †	+£163.9m †	+£252.2m †	+£349.2m †	+£441.3m †	+£536.4m †	+£638.6m †
gov_balance	-£89.9m †	-£163.9m †	-£252.2m †	-£348.9m †	-£441.4m †	-£534.6m †	-£638.7m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	+£89.9m †	+£163.9m †	+£252.2m †	+£349.2m †	+£441.3m †	+£536.4m †	+£638.6m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	+£89.6m	+£163.3m	+£251.2m	+£347.9m	+£439.6m	+£534.3m	+£636.1m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	-0.03pp	-0.05pp	-0.05pp	-0.06pp	-0.05pp	-0.08pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.00pp	-0.10pp	-0.14pp	-0.14pp	-0.15pp	-0.10pp	-0.05pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	-0.02pp	-0.04pp	-0.04pp	-0.05pp	-0.05pp	-0.12pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.02pp	-0.00pp	-0.02pp	-0.03pp	-0.04pp	-0.05pp	-0.04pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.05pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.02pp	-0.00pp	-0.05pp	-0.05pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.04pp	-0.04pp	-0.06pp	-0.06pp	-0.04pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.05pp	-0.08pp	-0.08pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.11pp	-0.22pp	-0.22pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.04pp	-0.06pp	-0.06pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	0	+0.01pp	0	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.02pp	+0.01pp	-0.06pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.02pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.00pp	+0.01pp	-0.15pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp	0	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.03pp	+0.01pp	-0.04pp	+0.00pp	-0.02pp	-0.01pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	+0.01pp	-0.03pp	+0.00pp	0	0	+0.02pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-1.6k	-22.8k	-37.9k	-37.2k	-44.4k	-38.1k	-58.4k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-9	-14.5k	-20.9k	-21.5k	-23.1k	-15.7k	-7.5k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-1.6k	-8.3k	-16.9k	-15.7k	-21.3k	-22.4k	-50.9k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-11.7k	-2.1k	-17.3k	-21.4k	-28.8k	-35.5k	-25.6k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-7.1k	-668	-5	-3.0k	-5	-7.4k	-7.6k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-4.6k	-1.4k	-16.7k	-17.8k	-28.2k	-27.4k	-17.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	-644	-646	-648	-650	-658
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-1.5k	-1.9k	-1.5k	-3.0k	-34.0k	-59.5k	-58.3k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-410	-13	-74	-16.5k	-33.8k	-33.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-1.5k	-1.5k	-1.4k	-2.9k	-18.6k	-25.6k	-25.1k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	0	+1.1k	0	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-12.1k	+5.4k	-42.0k	+1.7k	-9.7k	-6.4k	-12.1k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-591	+1.2k	-21.8k	+520	-1.6k	0	+532
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-11.5k	+3.5k	-16.8k	+971	-8.1k	-6.4k	-15.0k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	+741	-3.3k	+232	0	0	+2.4k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0002	-0.0002

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£7.47 †	+£30 †	+£1.31 †	+£16 †	+£15 †	+£24 †	+£38 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£6.84 †	+£62 †	+£140 †	+£28 †	-£61 †	+£22 †	+£103 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.97 †	-£18 †	-£39 †	+£19 †	+£100 †	+£35 †	-£85 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.32 †	-£33 †	-£22 †	-£2.12 †	+£32 †	-£22 †	-£21 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.99 †	+£94 †	+£2.65 †	+£8.67 †	-£47 †	-£0.28 †	+£153 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.04 †	+£5.65 †	-£14 †	+£398 †	-£2.71 †	+£95 †	-£55 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£9.24 †	+£31 †	+£16 †	-£256 †	+£49 †	-£27 †	-£47 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£2.64 †	-£51 †	-£3.33 †	+£4.50 †	+£2.72 †	-£74 †	+£7.70 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.46 †	+£4.44 †	-£8.01 †	-£8.39 †	+£12 †	+£2.53 †	+£17 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.91 †	+£1.67 †	+£2.55 †	+£3.48 †	+£4.38 †	+£6.37 †	+£6.15 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£3	+£70	+£0.2m	-£0.3m	+£73,183	+£280	+£96,038
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£0.2m	+£218	+£85	-£0.3m	+£0.1m	+£117	+£96,144
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£67	-£62	-£106	-£81	+£73,021	+£74	-£272
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£16	-£49	+£258	-£126	+£43,135	+£10.9m	-£5
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£0.1m	-£0.2m	-£0.4m	-£46.3m	-£0.6m	-£2.6m	-£0.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£77	+£57	-£308	-£0.3m	+£73,423	-£1.9m	+£0.4m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£67	+£302	+£143	+£25,969	-£7,548	+£0.2m	-£9,765
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£1	-£13	+£1	-£0.3m	-£29,101	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	+£0.5m	-£65	+£17	+£47	+£0.1m	+£10.9m	-£168
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£7,367	+£15,500	+£23,783	-£0.3m	+£0.1m	-£1.8m	-£0.9m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.1%)	+£13 (+0.1%)	+£16 (+0.1%)	+£20 (+0.1%)	+£23 (+0.1%)
Decile 2	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£8 (+0.0%)	+£13 (+0.0%)	+£17 (+0.1%)	+£22 (+0.1%)	+£26 (+0.1%)	+£34 (+0.1%)
Decile 3	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£10 (+0.0%)	+£15 (+0.0%)	+£17 (+0.0%)	+£21 (+0.1%)	+£25 (+0.1%)
Decile 4	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£10 (+0.0%)	+£14 (+0.0%)	+£19 (+0.0%)	+£23 (+0.1%)	+£26 (+0.1%)
Decile 5	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£10 (+0.0%)	+£13 (+0.0%)	+£15 (+0.0%)	+£18 (+0.0%)	+£23 (+0.0%)
Decile 6	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£11 (+0.0%)	+£16 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	+£11 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)
Decile 7	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£19 (+0.0%)	+£24 (+0.0%)	+£27 (+0.0%)
Decile 8	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£8 (+0.0%)
Decile 9	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£14 (+0.0%)	+£17 (+0.0%)
Decile 10	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)
all	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£8 (+0.0%)	+£11 (+0.0%)	+£14 (+0.0%)	+£17 (+0.0%)	+£20 (+0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	7.6%	0.0%
2026-27	7.6%	0.0%
2027-28	7.6%	0.0%
2028-29	7.6%	0.0%
2029-30	7.6%	0.0%
2030-31	7.6%	0.0%
2031-32	7.6%	0.0%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main fba0c0a53e	uk 2.162.3 (files 094c8502b994), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	6e6b7066671c	4f86ac4248d9	1883.12s
head	#2680 merged into main c0d48050eb	uk 2.162.3 (files e2991a88b6cf), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	6e6b7066671c	4f86ac4248d9	1879.31s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
Government spending	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.37bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.86bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.78bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.60bn	£554.51bn	£577.74bn	£603.32bn	£627.65bn	£654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.37bn †
household_benefits	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.37bn †
gov_balance	£369.86bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.78bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.43bn †	£1,688.69bn †	£1,719.55bn †	£1,750.61bn †	£1,781.67bn †	£1,821.07bn †	£1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.30bn	£1,504.48bn	£1,537.58bn	£1,569.36bn	£1,602.66bn	£1,640.48bn	£1,687.04bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	15.1%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.4%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.7%	22.8%	23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	30.8%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.5%	12.1%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,049k	10,466k	10,736k	10,860k	10,960k	11,054k	11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,171k	3,211k	3,220k	3,261k	3,305k	3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,845k	5,746k	6,022k	6,123k	6,169k	6,209k	6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,422k	14,808k	14,994k	15,242k	15,402k	15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,671k	4,685k	4,757k	4,814k	4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,359k	8,732k	8,898k	9,024k	9,114k	9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,454k	1,404k	1,411k	1,460k	1,475k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,403k	11,468k	11,487k	11,391k	11,468k	11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,523k	3,519k	3,491k	3,435k	3,458k	3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,136k	6,338k	6,400k	6,368k	6,415k	6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,588k	1,595k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,597k	14,698k	14,825k	14,951k	15,042k	15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,677k	4,630k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,455k	8,680k	8,847k	8,916k	8,977k	9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,465k	1,388k	1,344k	1,346k	1,354k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3059	0.3065	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,906 †	£17,832 †	£17,905 †	£18,142 †	£18,339 †	£18,482 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,963 †	£28,917 †	£28,654 †	£28,906 †	£29,096 †	£29,646 †	£30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,381 †	£35,463 †	£36,065 †	£36,509 †	£36,851 †	£37,338 †	£38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,713 †	£41,873 †	£42,413 †	£43,144 †	£43,906 †	£44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,626 †	£45,606 †	£46,288 †	£47,327 †	£48,285 †	£49,710 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,525 †	£50,736 †	£51,914 †	£52,203 †	£53,174 †	£54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,219 †	£57,224 †	£57,764 †	£58,010 †	£59,040 †	£60,061 †	£61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,533 †	£71,800 †	£73,075 †	£74,092 †	£75,540 †	£77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,421 †	£82,828 †	£84,135 †	£85,539 †	£87,053 †	£89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,296 †	£121,933 †	£124,163 †	£126,045 †	£128,342 †	£131,110 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.61bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.02bn	£-3.15bn	£-3.26bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.38bn	£-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.02bn	£3.15bn	£3.26bn	£3.32bn	£3.39bn	£3.44bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[vahid-ahmadi]

Round 1 at ea9ee921b.

Verdict: this fixes #2674 as described, and the index choice is sound. I have no must or should findings, only three nits. It is still a draft, so this is a comment, not an approval.

Against #2674 and our triage there:

• uprate_council_tax now grows each person's council_tax_benefit_reported by their household's bill factor, mapped through person_household_id (policyengine_uk/data/economic_assumptions.py:599-615). This is the fix the issue asked for.
• reset_growthfactor_uprating now restores it alongside council_tax (:890-891). Without that, a reset would leave the projected value in place.
• If either year lacks the column, nothing is created (:599-602). NI's factor stays 1.0, so both the NI bill and any NI report stay flat.

Index choice: using the bill factor (each region's OBR council tax receipts growth, net of household weight growth) keeps each reported reduction at the same share of its bill. That fits how CTR schemes work: the maximum award is a share of the liability (for example SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 7, the default English scheme for pensioners). It also fits the OBR series, which is receipts net of CTR. CPI would have left the reports falling behind bills that grow 5 to 6% a year. The constant share does ignore income growth against the scheme's applicable amounts. That is an approximation, and the docs at docs/engineering/skills/dataset-sources.md:243-258 state it.

Aggregate-impact report (run on this head, enhanced_frs_2024_25):

• Council Tax Reduction spending rises by £89.9m in 2025-26, growing to £638.6m in 2031-32. Government balance moves by the same amount.
• Child relative poverty before housing costs falls by 0.22pp (about 34k children) in 2030-31 and 2031-32.
• The issue measured a £0.37bn gap in 2031-32 on Microcosm UK 2024-25. The £0.64bn here comes from a different dataset, so the two do not conflict.
• Two moves look odd but are expected. Some decile means fall (for example decile 7 in 2028-29, -£256) because each side is ranked into its own deciles. VAT on private school fees moves by up to £1.8m because attends_private_school ranks households on an income that includes household_benefits (policyengine_uk/variables/contrib/labour/attends_private_school.py:63-66).

Findings:

1. nit: the PR body lists test_reset_restores_reported_reduction_and_reprojection_is_deterministic as a reproducer, but it passes on the base code. On the base, nothing grows the report, so the reset has nothing to undo. The three tests that fail on the base are the two cases of test_reported_reduction_keeps_each_persons_share_of_their_household_bill (2025 and 2030) and test_unsupported_working_age_claim_keeps_half_the_projected_council_tax_bill. The reset test is still worth keeping: it fails if the reset change at :891 is dropped while the uprating stays.
2. nit: our triage on Reported Council Tax Reduction is never uprated, so it covers less of the bill each projected year #2674 suggested checking whether any NI records have a non-zero council_tax_benefit_reported, since in NI that is more likely rate relief, which would belong with domestic_rates. The PR says no such audit was done, and the synthetic NI report (test_council_tax_uprating.py:443, :497) pins it flat. That matches today's behaviour, so it does not block this PR. A one-line follow-up issue would keep the question from being lost.
3. nit: the changelog entry (changelog.d/2674.fixed.md) does not give the size of the change. Adding "raises projected CTR spending by about £0.1bn in 2025-26, rising to £0.6bn in 2031-32" would tell release-note readers why baseline figures moved.

What I ran, at ea9ee921b in a fresh worktree and venv:

• Your listed command (eight test files): 104 passed in 147 s.
• test_council_tax_uprating.py with economic_assumptions.py reverted to the merge base: 3 failed and 26 passed, as described in item 1.
• CI was all green at this head.

What I did not do: no population run of my own (I used the CI aggregate report), and no check of NI FRS records.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Addressed all three nits from the review.

• Corrected the Reproducer field to name only the two functions covering the three cases that fail on the base. Kept the reset/reprojection test as regression protection and described that distinction in the PR body.
• Filed the Northern Ireland classification follow-up to check nonzero reports, source mapping, possible domestic rate relief, and the appropriate projection after the audit. This round performs no record audit or classification change.
• Added the rounded spending effect to the changelog, qualified as the historical enhanced_frs_2024_25 CI comparison at ea9ee921b against fba0c0a53 cited in your review. No new population run was performed.

Verification: Pushed 96a3be7d10c547e06517395263ef5d1838a7a9b9; the commit changes only the changelog. Independent verification is CLEAN for all three findings. The trusted actual-base Fix evidence and changelog validators passed, and uv run --frozen --no-sync make format passed once without changing executable files. The previous eight-module, 104-test PASS at ea9ee921b remains applicable because the model and test files are byte-identical and the base is unchanged. Fresh automatic CI for the new head is pending or running; the previous head’s 20 passing checks are historical evidence.

The PR remains ready for review with the existing Vahid review request pending.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Round 2 at 96a3be7d1.

Status of the round 1 nits (round 1):

1. Fixed. The Reproducer field now names only the two test functions that fail on the base (three cases). The PR body explains that the reset test passes on the base and stays as regression protection.
2. Fixed. Audit Northern Ireland reported Council Tax Reduction classification #2681 now tracks the Northern Ireland question (non-zero reports, source mapping, possible domestic rate relief). That is the follow-up we asked for.
3. Fixed. changelog.d/2674.fixed.md:1 now gives the size: about £0.1bn in 2025-26, rising to £0.6bn in 2031-32. It also says these figures come from the earlier CI comparison.

New findings in 96a3be7d1: none. The commit changes only changelog.d/2674.fixed.md (compare ea9ee921b...96a3be7d1). The model and test files are the same as in round 1.

What I ran, at 96a3be7d1 in a fresh worktree and venv:

• Your listed command (eight test files): 104 passed in 118 s.
• CI at this head: all 20 check runs succeeded, including Aggregate impact, Fix evidence and Test / Python 1 to 5.

What I did not do: I did not re-read the unchanged model code beyond round 1, did no population run of my own, and did not check NI FRS records (that is #2681).

Verdict: no must or should findings, CI green, mergeable and not a draft. I am approving at 96a3be7d1 and adding it to the merge queue.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[vahid-ahmadi]

Approving at 96a3be7; see the comment above.