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Count AFIP as attendance allowance in UC housing cost contributions - #2815

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Nov 4, 2026
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@MaxGhenis

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Addresses #2802

What and why

In regulation 2 of the Universal Credit Regulations 2013, the Secretary of State defines "attendance allowance" to include armed forces independence payment (AFIP, head (f)). Under Schedule 4 paragraph 16(2)(d), DWP deducts no housing cost contribution for a non-dependant "in receipt of attendance allowance". uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt read only attendance_allowance, so the model deducted a contribution for a non-dependant who receives AFIP. In 2026-27 that took £1,158.60 a year (12 × £96.55, Sch 4 para 14(1)) off the renter's housing costs element.

This PR:

  • adds uc_receives_attendance_allowance (Person, bool), which applies the regulation 2 definition through a new list parameter, gov.dwp.universal_credit.attendance_allowance_benefits: attendance_allowance (head (a)) and armed_forces_independence_payment (head (f));
  • reads it in uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt for paragraph 16(2)(d);
  • names it in gov.dwp.LHA.shared_accommodation_exception_benefits in place of attendance_allowance and armed_forces_independence_payment, so the list holds the three heads of paragraph 29(5) that the model has variables for: (a) DLA care at the middle or highest rate, (b) attendance allowance and (c) PIP daily living. The model gives the same shared accommodation rate result as before (see the differential below).

The model holds no separate amount for regulation 2's other heads: (b) an increase of disablement pension under SSCBA 1992 s.104 or 105, (d) Personal Injuries (Civilians) Scheme 1983 payments and (e) attendance additions to a war disablement pension. iidb holds one reported amount, afcs holds one reported amount for war disablement pensions and Armed Forces Compensation Scheme payments, with no separate attendance addition, and no variable holds Personal Injuries (Civilians) Scheme payments. So the model does not count a person who receives only one of those. For Northern Ireland, the Secretary of State defines the term with the same five payments in reg 2 of the Universal Credit Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2016.

We ran the issue's household on main and on this branch: a single claimant aged 40 in the North West with no earnings, renting from the council at £6,000 a year, and a non-dependant aged 25 earning £20,000 in a benefit unit of their own (2026).

Case Contribution, main Contribution, branch Universal Credit, main Universal Credit, branch
No one receives a qualifying benefit £1,158.60 £1,158.60 £9,940.20 £9,940.20
The non-dependant receives PIP daily living £0 £0 £11,098.80 £11,098.80
The non-dependant receives AFIP £1,158.60 £0 £9,940.20 £11,098.80
A non-dependant couple, one on AFIP £2,317.20 £1,158.60 £8,781.60 £9,940.20
The renter receives AFIP, and no non-dependant does £1,158.60 £1,158.60 £9,940.20 £9,940.20

In the first four rows, the branch computes the award DWP pays under the regulations: Universal Credit equals 12 × £424.90 (the reg 36 standard allowance) plus £6,000 less the contributions. The model gives the same results at the non-dependant's earnings of £0 and £100,000. In the last row, DWP deducts no contribution under paragraph 15(2)(c) and pays £11,098.80. The branch still gives £9,940.20 until #2017 adds that exemption.

Scope

main holds no paragraph 15 renter exemption (#2014). Draft PR #2017 adds one, uc_non_dep_deductions_renter_exempt, which reads attendance_allowance. This PR leaves the renter exemption to #2017, so it addresses #2802 without closing it. A renter on AFIP still bears contributions until the second of this PR and #2017 to land applies the first merge note below, and that PR closes #2802.

Merge notes

Invariants

Each holds for every input with non-negative benefit amounts:

  1. Raising AFIP from nil to any positive amount never lowers Universal Credit and never raises the housing cost contributions, whoever in the household receives it.
  2. The model exempts a non-dependant who receives AFIP under paragraph 16(2)(d) and charges no contribution for them.
  3. Where only the non-dependant receives AFIP, the renter's housing costs element rises by no more than the contributions fall, and Universal Credit rises by no more than the element.
  4. uc_receives_attendance_allowance holds exactly when attendance allowance or AFIP is positive.
  5. The model gives the same shared accommodation rate result, and the same Universal Credit, with the new list as with its previous four entries.
  6. Across the module's YAML cases, no value moves unless someone in the case receives AFIP.
  7. One non-dependant's AFIP changes no other person's attendance allowance result, exemption or contribution, unless it starts Pension Credit for their benefit unit (paragraph 16(2)(b)).

Test plan

  • For policy changes: YAML tests whose expected values come from legislation.gov.uk (UC Regs 2013 reg 36 for £424.90 and Sch 4 para 14(1) for £96.55).
  • ruff format and ruff check on the changed Python files (equivalent of make format).
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/2802.fixed.md.

We ran each file alone at 9079310d6:

  • YAML, 153 cases, all passing: the four non_dep_deduction files (15), uc_receives_attendance_allowance.yaml (9), integration/uc_afip_housing_contribution.yaml (9), integration/uc_child_responsibility_housing_contribution.yaml (12), uc_housing_costs_element.yaml (7), claims_universal_credit.yaml (22), claims_as_single_person.yaml (33), legacy_closure_ineligible_partner.yaml (1), housing_benefit_lha_category.yaml (9), LHA_claimant_composition.yaml (17) and rent_of_sharers_boarders_and_lodgers.yaml (19).
  • Python, 40 passing: test_uc_afip_housing_contribution_properties.py (3, Hypothesis), test_uc_non_dep_pension_credit.py (3), code_health/test_aggregation_lists.py (8), code_health/test_variables.py (2) and test_parameter_descriptions.py (24).

At 9079310d6, test_uc_legacy_closure_properties.py (4), test_household_head_agreement_properties.py (3) and test_pension_credit_tax_branch_reuse.py (3) pass. An independent reviewer ran test_uc_single_claim_properties.py (8), test_benefit_cap_lha_scheme_split_properties.py (7), test_carer_support_payment.py (10) and test_rent_of_sharers_boarders_and_lodgers_properties.py (6) at 926099dfa, and all passed. The commits since then change only docstrings, comments, parameter descriptions and tests.

On main with the tests as they stood at 4ffa8a774, test_afip_never_lowers_uc_and_exempts_the_non_dependant fails on the issue's household (invariant 2), and 4 of the 7 integration cases in that version fail: the four in which a non-dependant receives AFIP.

Across the 151 YAML cases at 4ffa8a774, 8 move between main and that head, and each gives someone a positive AFIP. In each of the two cases added since, someone receives a penny of AFIP. Case 8 moves (main charges £1,158.60); Case 9 doesn't, since main's list already names AFIP. The comparison leaves out 3 cases that change parameters or apply a reform. In one of the 8, housing_benefit_lha_category.yaml's single renter on AFIP, only that person's own uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt flag moves, and no contribution or award changes. The list differential found no difference between the new shared accommodation list and its previous four entries over up to 10 generated batches of 12 renters and one fixed batch.

Each of three mutations fails a test. Dropping armed_forces_independence_payment from attendance_allowance_benefits fails both property tests and 4 integration cases; reading attendance_allowance > 0 in uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt again fails the AFIP property test and the same 4 cases; dropping uc_receives_attendance_allowance from the shared accommodation list fails the list differential (4 of 12 renters).

Five more mutations change the threshold or the unit. At 9079310d6, setting the test at more than £1 in uc_receives_attendance_allowance fails integration Cases 8 and 9, setting AFIP above £1 in uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt fails Case 8, and clearing the household's whole total for any exempt non-dependant fails test_one_persons_afip_moves_only_their_own_exemption. At de6a84762, summing AFIP over the benefit unit in uc_receives_attendance_allowance, or testing any household member in the exemption, fails the same test. The independent review's nine mutants at 926099dfa each failed a test.

Reproducer

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_afip_housing_contribution_properties.py::test_afip_never_lowers_uc_and_exempts_the_non_dependant; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/integration/uc_afip_housing_contribution.yaml

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#519 queued

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 6 commits November 1, 2026 12:28
… housing cost contributions

UC Regs 2013 reg 2 defines "attendance allowance" to include armed forces
independence payment, and Sch 4 para 16(2)(d) exempts a non-dependant who
receives it. Add uc_receives_attendance_allowance, which applies the reg 2
definition through gov.dwp.universal_credit.attendance_allowance_benefits,
read it in uc_non_dep_deduction_exempt, and name it in the shared
accommodation rate exception list in place of its two entries.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ifferential

The docs and test comments now say who defines and who deducts. A property
test checks that the shared accommodation rate exception list gives the
same result as its previous entries.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The model stores amounts as 32-bit floats, so a generated AFIP of 5e-324
reached it as zero.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Describe what afcs holds, name who acts in the docs, and pin a penny of
armed forces independence payment in two fixed cases. A new property
checks that one non-dependant's payment moves only their own exemption.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The per-person property now checks that the renter's total falls by the
recipient's contribution and no more, and the docstring limits invariant 4 to
where AFIP starts no Pension Credit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Nov 2, 2026 •

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 0080274d78 against head 1a4560bd9c, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

The report suppresses a reform's costing and target change in these years, for the reasons below (privacy.py):

  • Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%, 2030-31 to 2031-32 (base and head): the reform changes income_tax in fewer than 10 records.
  • Raise additional rate by 3pp, 2030-31 to 2031-32 (base and head): the reform changes universal_credit in fewer than 10 records.

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 0080274d78 uk 2.171.0 (files d72b65d494db), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 c07a637ca255 7cb61324a46b 2098.67s
head #2815 merged into main 1a4560bd9c uk 2.171.0 (files f2b4306220f7), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 c07a637ca255 7cb61324a46b 2108.86s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.46bn £315.23bn £335.82bn £351.28bn £366.96bn £385.36bn £400.00bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £256.87bn £266.33bn £272.70bn £278.97bn £285.24bn £291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.20bn £2.26bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.13bn £26.00bn £26.83bn £26.51bn £25.78bn £24.63bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.72bn £129.49bn £132.99bn £136.66bn £140.42bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.03bn £7.29bn £7.48bn £7.60bn £7.84bn £8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.48bn £80.52bn £82.95bn £84.96bn £86.11bn £87.61bn £88.21bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.89bn £9.23bn £9.46bn £9.69bn £9.99bn £10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.20bn £2.31bn £2.45bn £2.58bn £2.72bn £2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.82bn £0.84bn £0.86bn £0.88bn £0.90bn £0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.27bn £5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.19bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.00bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.59bn £3.71bn £3.78bn £3.86bn £3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.37bn £2.43bn £2.48bn £2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Household Energy Payment £0.00bn £2.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,486k 1,480k 1,472k 1,452k 1,450k 1,455k 1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,342k 6,347k 6,336k 6,297k 6,292k 6,271k 6,223k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,245k 1,244k 1,227k 1,227k 1,229k 1,232k
Council Tax Reduction 3,176k 3,195k 3,200k 3,214k 3,224k 3,235k 3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,060k 1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,123k 8,120k 8,120k 8,130k 8,145k 8,161k 8,178k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 353k 350k 348k 337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,043k 1,027k 1,014k 1,009k 1,011k 1,009k 993k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 796k 797k 798k 798k 792k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,072k 1,073k 1,076k 1,079k 1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Household Energy Payment 0k 21,065k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.89bn
Government spending £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.51bn † £567.20bn † £575.95bn † £583.60bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.62bn † £389.00bn † £429.74bn † £456.42bn † £487.04bn † £515.61bn † £541.29bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.89bn
household_tax £491.97bn £520.41bn £551.21bn £576.01bn £601.00bn £626.70bn £648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.15bn £512.28bn £542.82bn £566.95bn £591.72bn £617.16bn £638.61bn
gov_spending £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.51bn † £567.20bn † £575.95bn † £583.60bn †
household_benefits £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.51bn † £567.20bn † £575.95bn † £583.60bn †
gov_balance £362.62bn † £389.00bn † £429.74bn † £456.42bn † £487.04bn † £515.61bn † £541.29bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.69bn † £1,687.82bn † £1,715.45bn † £1,747.49bn † £1,778.69bn † £1,817.02bn † £1,859.69bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.57bn £1,499.83bn £1,530.86bn £1,565.17bn £1,597.89bn £1,635.60bn £1,676.61bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.3% 15.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.7% 22.1% 23.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.1% 13.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.4% 14.0% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 22.0% 22.6% 22.9% 23.1% 23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.3% 32.3% 32.5% 32.9% 33.4% 34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.8% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.0% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.9% 22.9% 23.3% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.1% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.0% 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 21.0% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.1% 31.2% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,278k 10,779k 11,402k 11,365k 11,476k 11,513k 11,651k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,688k 3,314k 3,496k 3,445k 3,480k 3,502k 3,549k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,965k 5,893k 6,308k 6,362k 6,420k 6,430k 6,521k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,572k 1,598k 1,558k 1,576k 1,580k 1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,944k 14,600k 15,310k 15,721k 15,937k 16,141k 16,426k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,975k 4,682k 4,837k 4,888k 4,945k 5,040k 5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,463k 8,461k 8,971k 9,344k 9,491k 9,584k 9,706k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,506k 1,457k 1,502k 1,490k 1,501k 1,517k 1,542k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,750k 11,084k 11,388k 11,364k 11,416k 11,415k 11,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,872k 3,423k 3,496k 3,445k 3,466k 3,454k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,159k 6,013k 6,301k 6,362k 6,389k 6,389k 6,521k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,720k 1,648k 1,590k 1,557k 1,562k 1,572k 1,581k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,849k 14,552k 14,776k 14,809k 14,874k 15,014k 15,234k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,942k 4,660k 4,673k 4,663k 4,679k 4,707k 4,806k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,426k 8,440k 8,711k 8,823k 8,873k 8,967k 9,062k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,482k 1,452k 1,392k 1,323k 1,322k 1,339k 1,365k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3080 0.3052 0.3058 0.3058 0.3063 0.3069 0.3085
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,681 † £17,997 † £17,915 † £18,152 † £18,307 † £18,531 † £18,717 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,939 † £29,023 † £28,711 † £29,013 † £29,276 † £29,691 † £30,150 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,320 † £35,485 † £36,073 † £36,611 † £37,197 † £37,737 † £38,187 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,933 † £40,687 † £41,723 † £42,727 † £43,334 † £44,132 † £44,432 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,239 † £45,567 † £46,014 † £46,959 † £47,712 † £48,584 † £50,282 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,927 † £49,210 † £50,892 † £51,939 † £52,945 † £53,942 † £54,680 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,662 † £56,571 † £57,442 † £57,670 † £58,729 † £59,657 † £61,082 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,789 † £70,803 † £71,858 † £73,466 † £73,880 † £75,320 † £77,178 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,890 † £81,013 † £80,861 † £82,646 † £85,464 † £86,946 † £89,509 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,005 † £120,339 † £124,742 † £126,632 † £125,971 † £128,600 † £130,938 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.63bn £6.85bn £7.03bn £7.25bn £7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.22bn £4.44bn £4.71bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.80bn £-3.92bn £-3.98bn £-4.04bn £-4.10bn £-4.23bn £-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.38bn £-1.30bn £-1.18bn £-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.77bn £-21.32bn £-21.75bn £-21.99bn £-22.34bn £-22.75bn £-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.71bn £12.01bn £12.31bn suppressed suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.71bn £26.63bn £27.24bn £27.87bn £28.50bn £29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.41bn £3.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.18bn £-3.26bn £-3.35bn £-3.44bn £-3.49bn £-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.78bn £-8.01bn £-8.24bn £-8.47bn £-8.82bn £-8.55bn £-8.89bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.79bn £7.00bn £7.20bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.93bn £-4.07bn £-4.13bn £-4.18bn £-4.22bn £-4.40bn £-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.94bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.74bn £21.31bn £21.78bn £22.04bn £22.37bn £22.78bn £22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.51bn £26.42bn £27.03bn £27.65bn £28.28bn £28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.19bn £3.28bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.49bn £3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.03bn £12.47bn £12.97bn

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Reviewed exact head 7e657d4e51929ad42af0e4ddf1166c10a723a91c. Review COMPLETE, with no findings or material evidence gaps.

The recipient-level AFIP exemption and shared-accommodation list change match the reviewed GB/NI provisions. 84 focused checks passed, including a non-dependant couple with only one AFIP recipient. The final-outcome check removes £1,158.60 of contribution and raises the renter's UC from £9,940.20 to £11,098.80, with the same £1,158.60 increase in household income. The separate benefit unit's UC and income tax remain unchanged. This validates the changed UC component's income effect; full AFIP cash accounting was outside this fix.

The actual rulespec-uk #519 record supports the queued Axiom line, with source-derived cases and its stated corpus/encoder-approval blocker. Exact-head CI is green.

This PR remains a draft, so I am recording the completed review without approving it yet. Retain the documented integration instruction: whichever of this PR and #2017 lands second must use uc_receives_attendance_allowance for the renter exemption, so the remaining part of #2802 is completed. No merge was performed.

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review November 3, 2026 10:42
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I marked this ready at the head you reviewed, 7e657d4e5, where every required check passes. The merge note for #2017 stays in the description.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Rechecked 7e657d4e51929ad42af0e4ddf1166c10a723a91c after it was marked ready. COMPLETE; no findings or material gaps.

The head, actual description and relevant evidence are unchanged from my completed review. The prior 84 passing checks and native final UC/household-income proof remain applicable; no tests were rerun. The source cache and queued Axiom evidence were revalidated, and current-head required checks pass.

The #2017 integration note remains: whichever change lands second must use the new receipt predicate for the renter exemption. This approval covers this PR's adopted recipient-level correction, with the scope qualifications in the previous review retained.

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Count AFIP as attendance allowance in UC housing cost contributions

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