Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2507 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-19T19:38:31Z

Part of #1954.

What was wrong

State Pension Credit Regulations 2002 reg 15(1) prescribe "all social security benefits" as Pension Credit income except a closed list. PolicyEngine's income list (gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.income) omitted four benefits that are not on that list:

industrial injuries disablement benefit (iidb);
severe disablement allowance (sda);
incapacity benefit (incapacity_benefit);
maternity allowance (maternity_allowance).

The Savings Credit list of non-qualifying income named only contribution-based JSA and contributory ESA, though reg 9 also names working tax credit, incapacity benefit, SDA and maternity allowance. Housing Benefit income omitted IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit too.

The law

Read from legislation.gov.uk (revised text, /data.xml).

SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(1): "For the purposes of section 15(1)(e) (income), all social security benefits are prescribed except—". The list names none of the four. For IIDB it excepts only "(c) an increase of disablement pension under section 104 or 105 of the 1992 Act" (constant attendance and exceptionally severe disablement). Items (d) and (e) except payments under the Sch 8 schemes for old industrial injury cases.
SPC Regs 2002 reg 9: "all income is to be treated as qualifying income except ... (a) working tax credit; (b) incapacity benefit; (c) a contribution-based jobseeker's allowance; (d) severe disablement allowance; (e) maternity allowance; (f) payments referred to in regulation 15(5)(d) (maintenance payments). (g) contributory employment and support allowance."
HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 29(1)(j) counts "social security benefits, other than retirement pension income or any of the following benefits—". Its exceptions cover the IIDB increases (head (iii); heads (iv) and (v) cover the Schedule 8 schemes for old cases) but not IIDB, SDA or IB.
HB Regs 2006 reg 40(1) counts gross income other than earnings, less the Sch 5 disregards. Sch 5 has no disregard for IIDB, SDA or IB. Its para 9 disregards "Any attendance allowance", which reg 2(1) defines to include "an increase of disablement pension under section 104 or 105".

Changes

guarantee_credit/income.yaml: add iidb, sda, incapacity_benefit and maternity_allowance.
savings_credit/excluded_income.yaml: add working_tax_credit, incapacity_benefit, sda and maternity_allowance (reg 9(a), (b), (d), (e)). Fix the unit metadata (list) and add a label.
savings_credit_income: read benefit-unit sources such as working tax credit once, and floor each person-level source at nil, as pension_credit_income does since Count a loss on one source as nil in Pension Credit income and earnings #2259.
housing_benefit_applicable_income: count iidb, sda and incapacity_benefit (maternity allowance was already counted).
Remove gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.savings_credit_excluded_sources. git grep finds no code, test, doc or README that reads it. It is registered in REMOVED_PARAMETERS, so a reform naming it fails with directions to gov.dwp.pension_credit.savings_credit.excluded_income.

Not changed

IIDB and IB increases. iidb is the whole reported payment, so the reg 15(1)(c) increases cannot be separated. Nor can incapacity benefit's increases for a dependant other than a partner (reg 15(1)(h)). The parameter comment says so.
Spousal maintenance (reg 15(5)(d), reg 9(f)). maintenance_income comes from the FRS child-maintenance module, which records arrangements per child and the "children covered", and child maintenance is not Pension Credit income. Absent-partner payments sit untyped in private_transfer_income. See ALLPAY2 is counted in two income variables, and spousal maintenance has no variable of its own policyengine-uk-data#627 and ALLPAY2 is counted in two UK income columns; spousal maintenance column (mirror of uk-data) microcosm#1320.
Council Tax Reduction omits the same three benefits: Council Tax Reduction income omits IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and war pensions #2510, worked in Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income #2512, which is stacked on this PR.
Other Pension Credit income still omits IIDB, SDA, the AFCS guaranteed income payment and other countable income #1954 items: the reg 17(10) tax line and property income are Treat income derived from capital as capital in the legacy means tests #1995; Sch VI is Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019; war pensions are Count war pensions and AFCS payments in Pension Credit income, less £10 a week #2508; statutory pay is Count statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay as Pension Credit earnings #2509.

Tests

pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_income.yaml: 21 cases at statutory rates. All 21 fail on main (b9b5671) and pass here.
- Rates: SI 2026/148 Sch 1 and arts 9 and 29: IIDB £233.90 and £46.78, SDA £103.85 plus £15.50, long-term IB £146.60, maternity allowance £194.32, standard minimum guarantee £238.00 and £363.25, Savings Credit threshold £208.07. SI 2025/295 for one 2025 case.
- Coverage: each benefit for a single person and a couple; Savings Credit cases showing IIDB is qualifying income while SDA, IB, MA and WTC are not; a Savings Credit cutoff case; pension-age, savings-credit-only and working-age Housing Benefit. Cases 15 and 18 enter working tax credit as an illustrative award, and Cases 17 and 21 set claims_universal_credit: false to model a legacy Housing Benefit claim; no case overrides a computed amount to isolate a rule.
test_pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_properties.py (Hypothesis, derandomized): 4 properties, 36 s locally.

#	Invariant	Domain
1	Differential, extending #1952's: where neither Guarantee Credit nor Savings Credit is due and HB income is above its floor, `housing_benefit_applicable_income == pension_credit_income`. There are no earnings, so the HB earnings disregard, which is capped at net earnings, is nil. With a savings-credit-only award HB uses the Pension Credit assessment plus the savings credit (HB (SPC) reg 27), so those points are excluded.	Single people and couples over State Pension age in England, Wales and Scotland, with State Pension, private pension, any of the four benefits and, in some families, a carer. 849 of 1,071 points compared, 770 with a prescribed benefit and 220 with a carer.
2	Guarantee Credit never rises with any of the four benefits. While it is paid it falls pound for pound with the extra Pension Credit income: the benefit, less the tax on it, less any Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment the benefit displaces under the overlapping benefits rules.	as above; 210 of 816 steps have Guarantee Credit paid
3	`savings_credit_income <= pension_credit_income`. Adding a reg 9 source changes Savings Credit income only through tax and any displaced carer's benefit, and never raises Savings Credit.	aged 77+; 60 of 150 base points have Savings Credit
4	On the private-pension step where Guarantee Credit ends, household net income (excluding the TV licence) does not fall.	as in 1; 23 steps where Guarantee Credit ends

CI runs the full YAML and Python suites.

Impact

Source: CI's aggregate-impact check, a full microsimulation of each fiscal year on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91). It compares main 815f89c with this PR merged (run, report).

	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit spending	−£19.9m	−£20.4m	−£21.1m	−£22.9m	−£23.4m	−£24.0m	−£24.5m
Housing Benefit spending	−£2.1m	−£2.2m	−£0.08m	−£0.09m	−£0.09m	−£0.09m	−£0.1m
Pension Credit caseload (benefit units)	−445	−447	−14	−14	−14	−14	−21
Household net income	−£22.0m	−£22.6m	−£21.2m	−£23.0m	−£23.5m	−£24.1m	−£24.7m

Absolute poverty is unchanged in every year.
Relative poverty moves by at most 0.21 percentage points (pensioners, before housing costs, 2027-28).
The TV licence fee line moves by about £2,500 a year.

Axiom

axiom: rulespec-uk#390 queued (Extension 3: reg 15(1) benefits and the reg 9 list; reg 9 needs ingesting first)

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_income.yaml::Case 1, single pensioner with IIDB at 20 percent.
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_income.yaml::Case 12, SDA is not qualifying income for Savings Credit.
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_properties.py::test_pension_credit_and_housing_benefit_assess_the_same_prescribed_benefits

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…n Credit income SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(1) prescribes all social security benefits as income except a closed list that does not name these four. Append them to gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.income. The reported IIDB amount cannot separate the constant attendance and exceptionally severe disablement increases that reg 15(1)(c) and (e) except. Complete the reg 9 Savings Credit non-qualifying list with working tax credit, incapacity benefit, SDA and maternity allowance, and let savings_credit_income read benefit-unit sources such as working tax credit. Fix the list's unit metadata and add a label. Housing Benefit income counts IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit under both HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 29(1)(j) and HB Regs 2006 reg 40 with Sch 5. Remove the unused duplicate parameter gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.savings_credit_excluded_sources. Refs #1954. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-10-19T20:19:00Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 815f89cb7a against head b319f1e78d, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 2 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	1,648k	1,624k	-23.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	14.3%	14.1%	-0.21pp

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
TV licence fee	+£2,384	+£2,468	+£2,477	+£2,487	+£2,498	+£2,509	+£2,520

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	-£19.9m	-£20.4m	-£21.1m	-£22.9m	-£23.4m	-£24.0m	-£24.5m
Housing Benefit	-£2.1m	-£2.2m	-£84,975	-£87,875	-£90,909	-£94,058	-£0.1m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	-445	-447	-14	-14	-14	-14	-21
Housing Benefit	-445	-447	-14	-14	-14	-14	-21
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	+£2,384	+£2,468	+£2,477	+£2,487	+£2,498	+£2,509	+£2,520
Government spending	-£22.0m †	-£22.6m †	-£21.2m †	-£22.9m †	-£23.5m †	-£24.1m †	-£24.7m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£22.0m †	+£22.6m †	+£21.2m †	+£23.0m †	+£23.5m †	+£24.1m †	+£24.7m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	+£2,384	+£2,468	+£2,477	+£2,487	+£2,498	+£2,509	+£2,520
household_tax	+£2,384	+£2,468	+£2,477	+£2,487	+£2,498	+£2,509	+£2,520
pre_budget_change_household_tax	+£2,384	+£2,468	+£2,477	+£2,487	+£2,498	+£2,509	+£2,520
gov_spending	-£22.0m †	-£22.6m †	-£21.2m †	-£22.9m †	-£23.5m †	-£24.1m †	-£24.7m †
household_benefits	-£22.0m †	-£22.6m †	-£21.2m †	-£22.9m †	-£23.5m †	-£24.1m †	-£24.7m †
gov_balance	+£22.0m †	+£22.6m †	+£21.2m †	+£23.0m †	+£23.5m †	+£24.1m †	+£24.7m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£22.0m †	-£22.6m †	-£21.2m †	-£23.0m †	-£23.5m †	-£24.1m †	-£24.7m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£22.0m	-£22.6m	-£21.2m	-£23.0m	-£23.5m	-£24.1m	-£24.7m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-0.04pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-0.01pp	0	0	0	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-0.21pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.00pp	0	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.00pp	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	+387	+389	+390	+392
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	+193	+194	+195	+196
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+193	+194	+195	+196
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	0	+387	+389	+390	+392
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	+193	+194	+195	+196
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+193	+194	+195	+196
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-25.4k	+387	+389	+390	+392
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-859	0	0	0	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-859	+193	+194	+195	+196
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-23.7k	+193	+194	+195	+196
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+138	0	-5.6k	+389	+390	+392
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	-5.8k	+194	+195	+196
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+138	0	+193	+194	+195	+196

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.03 †	-£0.02 †	-£0.00 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.00 †	+£0.01 †	+£0.01 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.47 †	+£0.46 †	+£0.42 †	-£0.57 †	+£4.03 †	+£0.73 †	+£0.74 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£3.37 †	-£2.78 †	-£2.84 †	-£3.10 †	-£7.80 †	-£6.26 †	-£3.22 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.24 †	+£0.37 †	+£0.36 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.11 †	+£2.73 †	+£0.11 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.31 †	-£0.34 †	-£12 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.20 †	+£1.26 †	+£13 †	+£3.55 †	+£3.72 †	+£3.76 †	+£4.05 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£13 †	-£12 †	-£15 †	-£9.08 †	-£5.50 †	-£17 †	-£17 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	+£24 †	+£24 †	+£24 †	+£11 †	+£5.24 †	+£26 †	+£27 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£206	+£302	+£384	+£427	+£459	+£491	+£519
Raise higher rate by 1pp	0	+£0	-£0	0	0	+£0	-£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£1,239	-£1,244	-£1,248	-£945	-£486	-£488	-£186
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	0	+£0	0	0	0	-£0	-£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	0	+£0	+£0	+£0	+£0	0	-£0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£0	+£0	0	0	0	+£0	-£0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£3	-£1	+£1	-£2	+£2	-£2	+£2
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£0	+£0	0	+£0	-£0	0	-£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	+£0	+£0	+£0	0	-£0	0	-£0
Raise the State Pension by 10%	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	+£0.9m	+£13.3m	+£13.9m	+£14.4m	+£14.7m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 2	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3	0	0	0	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 5	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 6	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 8	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.0%
2026-27	0.0%	0.0%
2027-28	0.0%	0.0%
2028-29	0.0%	0.0%
2029-30	0.0%	0.0%
2030-31	0.0%	0.0%
2031-32	0.0%	0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `815f89cb7a`	uk 2.139.5 (files `89666f0e85a4`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`bdbfc93aa317`	`0d0426ee9e38`	891.91s
head	#2507 merged into main `b319f1e78d`	uk 2.139.5 (files `a06578e6fe93`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`bdbfc93aa317`	`0d0426ee9e38`	897.74s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.12bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.02bn	£7.09bn	£7.21bn	£7.34bn	£7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.20bn	£9.34bn	£9.62bn	£9.88bn	£10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.24bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,490k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,213k	3,226k	3,247k	3,263k	3,282k	3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.39bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£536.58bn †	£550.93bn †	£557.26bn †	£564.33bn †	£572.89bn †	£582.14bn †	£591.31bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.81bn †	£388.28bn †	£418.90bn †	£444.98bn †	£472.00bn †	£499.52bn †	£531.20bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.52bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£536.58bn †	£550.93bn †	£557.26bn †	£564.33bn †	£572.89bn †	£582.14bn †	£591.31bn †
household_benefits	£536.58bn †	£550.93bn †	£557.26bn †	£564.33bn †	£572.89bn †	£582.14bn †	£591.31bn †
gov_balance	£365.94bn †	£391.41bn †	£422.03bn †	£448.11bn †	£475.13bn †	£502.65bn †	£534.33bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,658.20bn †	£1,706.79bn †	£1,738.63bn †	£1,772.81bn †	£1,809.07bn †	£1,850.79bn †	£1,902.54bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.76bn	£1,513.57bn	£1,545.82bn	£1,578.87bn	£1,613.06bn	£1,652.19bn	£1,702.63bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.2%	12.0%	12.2%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.1%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.5%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.3%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.6%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.3%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.3%	12.2%	12.3%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,078k	11,209k	11,218k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,315k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,544k	1,560k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,540k	14,214k	14,692k	14,933k	15,151k	15,389k	15,523k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,767k	4,515k	4,643k	4,699k	4,756k	4,835k	4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,277k	8,253k	8,666k	8,844k	8,994k	9,142k	9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,496k	1,445k	1,382k	1,390k	1,402k	1,412k	1,424k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,759k	11,456k	11,503k	11,625k	11,706k	11,868k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,514k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,365k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,765k	1,758k	1,624k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,912k	14,719k	14,901k	15,003k	15,218k	15,281k	15,509k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,889k	4,715k	4,697k	4,720k	4,791k	4,799k	4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,435k	8,497k	8,758k	8,878k	9,019k	9,074k	9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,588k	1,506k	1,446k	1,406k	1,409k	1,408k	1,422k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3065	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£18,018 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,365 †	£29,041 †	£28,681 †	£29,001 †	£29,381 †	£29,782 †	£30,333 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,607 †	£35,898 †	£36,499 †	£37,002 †	£37,275 †	£37,955 †	£38,662 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,326 †	£40,905 †	£41,932 †	£42,824 †	£43,176 †	£43,836 †	£44,936 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,874 †	£46,153 †	£46,931 †	£47,447 †	£48,381 †	£49,255 †	£50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,931 †	£49,324 †	£50,272 †	£51,050 †	£52,160 †	£52,929 †	£54,245 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,322 †	£57,579 †	£58,472 †	£59,449 †	£60,166 †	£61,632 †	£62,883 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,252 †	£70,364 †	£71,640 †	£72,874 †	£74,337 †	£75,704 †	£77,574 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,674 †	£82,009 †	£83,247 †	£84,449 †	£86,137 †	£87,749 †	£89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,666 †	£120,533 †	£122,448 †	£124,609 †	£126,968 †	£129,679 †	£132,877 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.93bn	£-9.14bn	£-9.04bn	£-9.08bn	£-9.28bn	£-9.53bn	£-9.80bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

…hout a UC claim savings_credit_income now floors each person-level excluded source at nil, as pension_credit_income counts them since #2259, so the two never disagree on a negative input. Case 17 tested working-age Housing Benefit income, but on current main the couple's Universal Credit entitlement passports Housing Benefit (#2133) and makes its income nil. Set claims_universal_credit to false so the case tests the means test itself. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…he carers overlap Two behaviours that reached main after these properties were written made them fail with every prescribed benefit at nil: - With a savings-credit-only award, Housing Benefit takes the Secretary of State's assessment plus the savings credit (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 27), so the differential now compares only where neither credit is due. - SDA, IB and MA (and contribution-based JSA and contributory ESA) reduce Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment under the overlapping benefits rules (carers_allowance_overlapping_benefits). The pound-for-pound and reg 9 properties now add back the carer's benefit the payment displaces. Measured on the derandomized draws: the differential compares 849 of 1,071 points, 770 of them with a prescribed benefit and 220 with a carer. All four properties pass in 44 s. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…emoved-parameter registry From the independent review of #2507: - The Housing Benefit earnings disregard is capped at net earnings, so it is nil without earnings. Cases 16 and 17 no longer override it, and the differential property compares Housing Benefit income with Pension Credit income directly instead of adding the disregard back. - Case 9 runs on the model's 2025 minimum guarantee (227.10), which is already the statutory amount; drop the override and its stale comment. - Reg 15(1)(c) is the IIDB increases (SSCBA ss.104-105); (d) and (e) are payments under the Sch 8 schemes for old industrial injury cases. Fix the wording in the income list, the HB comment, the YAML header and the property docstring, and note that incapacity benefit's non-partner dependant increases (reg 15(1)(h)) are not separated either. - Register the removed savings_credit_excluded_sources in REMOVED_PARAMETERS, so a reform naming it fails with directions. - New cases: savings-credit-only Housing Benefit with IIDB (Case 20) and working-age Housing Benefit with IIDB (Case 21). - Correct invariant 3's description of how the model dates State Pension age. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-20T05:56:00Z

Hand-off to the UK hub (session local_87c93ea5, 2026-10-20).

Head: 4401f73. That is the reviewed fixes at 4422b97 with origin/main 815f89c merged in; the PR's own files are unchanged by the merge.
Review: an independent Opus 5.5 review (the Codex lanes were closed under the Route A hold) asked for changes at 414e915, then approved at 4422b97. Its remaining items were body-wording nits, now fixed. Full review: /Users/maxghenis/reviews/uk-pc-income-1954-2026-10-02/review/review_2507_opus.md.
CI: every check passes on 4401f73, including Fix evidence and the aggregate-impact check. The impact table in the body comes from that run against 815f89c.
Depends on: nothing. Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income #2512 (CTR) is stacked on this PR.
Decisions: none. This is a bug fix to the law (SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(1), reg 9) and lands on gates.
Follow-ups: Council Tax Reduction income omits IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and war pensions #2510 (CTR) is being worked as Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income #2512. rulespec-uk#390 Extension 3 is posted. policyengine-uk-data#627 and microcosm#1320 cover spousal maintenance and an ALLPAY2 double count.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-20T10:50:03Z

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, from the owner session's hand-off. One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head 4401f7370bf33813543a29ef199e6ebc2409a493.

Review: an independent Opus 5.5 review (Codex lanes closed under the Route A hold) asked for changes at 414e915 and approved at 4422b97 (~/reviews/uk-pc-income-1954-2026-10-02/review/review_2507_opus.md). The head is 4422b97 merged with main 815f89c. The hub checked that the merge changes none of the PR's 10 files.
Impact: the aggregate-impact check at the head, against main 815f89c (the merge commit's first parent, so the report is clean): Pension Credit spending −£19.9m (2025-26) to −£24.5m (2031-32), as the body's table shows.
Checks: every check passed at the head, and the merge queue re-tested against current main.
No decision needed: this is a bug fix to the law (SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(1), reg 9). Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income #2512 (CTR) is stacked on it.

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MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 19, 2026 15:37

Finish builder edits after review (checkpoint)

2b2d51f

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 19, 2026

Council Tax Reduction income omits IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and war pensions #2510

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MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 19, 2026

Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income #2512

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MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 19, 2026 16:27

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 19, 2026 22:23

Merge origin/main into pension-credit-prescribed-benefits

4401f73

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 20, 2026 05:55

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 20, 2026

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Compare a pull request with its merge commit's first parent in the Aggregate impact report #2522

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Merged via the queue into main with commit a6c42d7 Oct 20, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the pension-credit-prescribed-benefits branch October 20, 2026 10:37

vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Expand Savings Credit gate regression coverage and metadata #2519

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MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 21, 2026

Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066

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Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income - #2507

Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income#2507
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

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