Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2512 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-19T20:25:37Z

Stacked on #2507 (base pension-credit-prescribed-benefits, head 4401f73). GitHub retargets this PR to main when #2507 merges.

What and why

council_tax_reduction_applicable_income left out industrial injuries disablement benefit (iidb), severe disablement allowance (sda) and incapacity benefit (incapacity_benefit). Every Council Tax Reduction (CTR) scheme the variable serves counts all three:

Scheme	Provision
England, pensioners	SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 16(1)(j): "social security benefits, other than retirement pension income or any of the following benefits"; no exception names them
English working-age schemes	gross income (SI 2012/2886 Sch para 54(1)) less Sch 8, which disregards none of them. Kingston upon Thames, Merton, Newham and Westminster build on the default scheme, and Oxford's para 24 counts income other than earnings unless its Appendix 5 lists it
Wales	WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 10(1)(j) and Sch 6 para 17(1) with Sch 9
Scotland, pension age	SSI 2012/319 reg 27(1)(j)
Scotland, working age	SSI 2021/249 reg 57(1)(b)(ix)-(xi), a closed list that names them

Pension Credit counts them too (#2507), so once the guarantee credit passport ended, CTR was assessed on less income than Pension Credit and Housing Benefit.

Two details:

Whose benefits. Only the applicant's and partner's count (SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 11; SSI 2021/249 reg 36(1)). The formula's existing member mask still reaches dependants for the older income sources, so these three benefits use is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner instead. That is the claimant and partner, or the household head alone where the head applies alone. So a dependant's IIDB, SDA or IB is not counted, and nor is another couple's in a head's benefit unit.
IIDB increases. Each scheme leaves out IIDB's constant attendance and exceptionally severe disablement increases (SSCBA 1992 ss.104 and 105), by name or as "attendance allowance" (Sch 8 and Sch 9 para 14). iidb is the whole reported payment and cannot separate them, as in Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507.

War pensions and AFCS payments: unchanged

afcs and war_widows_pension stay uncounted, as #2508 leaves them for Housing Benefit.

Scotland counts none of them. SSI 2012/319 reg 31(10) and Sch 3 para 1 disregard "each of the following payments" in full, and SSI 2021/249 reg 57(1) does not name them.
England and Wales prescribe £10 a week (SI 2012/2885 Sch 5 para 1; WSI 2013/3029 Sch 4 para 1 and Sch 9 para 20), and councils may go further:
- WSI 2013/3029 reg 34(5) makes the war pension disregard "a minimum amount";
- an English scheme may make provision equivalent to the council tax benefit rules "with such modifications as the authority thinks fit" (LGFA 1992 Sch 1A para 2(11));
- any council may reduce further (s.13A(1)(c)).
The councils whose schemes the model reads (2026-27 texts, retrieved 2026-10-19 and 2026-10-20) mostly relieve war pensions in full:
- Westminster's scheme summary (§§3-4) disregards war pensions in full at both ages.
- Oxford's Appendix 5 ignores them for applicants without Universal Credit.
- Newham's schedules keep the £10 (Sch 6 para 1, Sch 8 para 19). But its discretionary reduction policy (para 2.1) adds automatically "the amount by which Council Tax Reduction would increase if Newham Council was able to fully disregard war compensation payments".
- Kingston upon Thames's schedules keep the £10 (Sch 6 para 1; Sch 8 para 20, with a £20 a week family limit in para 40). Its para 36(6), though, speaks of "the higher amount of full disregard in respect of this scheme" for the same payments.
- Merton's Sch 8 para 20 disregards them "in full" but "Subject to paragraph 40", whose £20 a week limit, read literally, caps that at working age.
The full disregard approximates each of these. It over-disregards guaranteed income payments in Wales, which reg 34(5) does not cover, and anywhere a council keeps the prescribed £10 without further relief. afcs cannot separate guaranteed income payments from war disablement pensions, or either from the constant attendance additions that every scheme disregards in full.

An earlier head of this PR (f027311) counted war pensions less £10 a week per payment in Kingston and Newham. Independent review found Newham's automatic top-up and Kingston's conflicting para 36(6), so that branch and its three parameters are gone.

Not changed

Statutory paternity pay is Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay #2368's. Both PRs edit the same income list, so whichever merges second resolves a one-line conflict.
The model gives every pensioner the £256.00 allowance, though SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 para 1 gives £238.00 to someone who reached pensionable age from April 2021 (Pensioner council tax reduction: applicable amount (post-April-2021 allowance, children, severe disability premium) and income (Child Benefit, tariff income) #1933). The Welsh and Scottish working-age allowances are Scotland and Wales working-age council tax reduction ignores the Universal Credit rules, child amounts and the benefit passport #1962/Give Scotland and Wales working-age council tax reduction their own rules (UC routes, passport, child amounts) #1966. The award cases here use claimants who reached pensionable age before April 2021.
Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507's boundary property (test_pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_properties.py::test_net_income_does_not_fall_where_guarantee_credit_ends) fails once CTR counts IB.
- Example. Take a single Scottish carer aged 86 with State Pension £3,693, IB £3,768 and maternity allowance £676. Those benefits cut Carer Support Payment to nil under CSP Regs reg 16(2). Pension Credit counts the payment after that reduction (SPC Regs reg 15(4)(g)). Scottish CTR counts it before (SSI 2012/319 reg 27(3) and (5)), a reading still awaiting a decision. So when guarantee credit ends, CTR is assessed on £4,495 more than Pension Credit counted: CTR falls from 1,526.66 to 890.52, and net income falls by 287.63.
- Change. b224d1e labels this as an intended exception in that invariant and skips steps where carer_support_payment_pre_overlap exceeds carer_support_payment. The owner of Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507 has been told.

Invariants

Tested with Hypothesis in policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_reduction_prescribed_benefits_properties.py. Draws are singles and couples in 2026 not claiming Universal Credit, in Maidstone, Cardiff, Glasgow, Westminster, Merton, Kingston upon Thames, Newham and Oxford.

Differential, CTR vs Pension Credit. Draws are pension-age families with State Pension, private pension, IIDB, IB and SDA, no earnings, no pension contributions and savings of at most £10,000. CTR income is:
- nil under guarantee credit (SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 13);
- Pension Credit income plus the savings credit under savings credit only (para 14);
- Pension Credit income otherwise.
In 10 draws over a private-pension grid this covers 384 general-rules cells, 6 savings-credit-only cells and 30 guarantee-credit cells.
Pound for pound, every scheme. Under the general rules, wherever the zero floor does not bind, raising IIDB or IB, or awarding SDA, raises CTR income plus the family's income tax and NI by exactly the added amount. The award never rises where the route is unchanged. In the national schemes, where both awards are partial, it falls by 20% of the rise in income.
War pensions never count. Adding war pensions and AFCS payments leaves CTR income unchanged under the general rules. Every draw includes a Kingston upon Thames couple.
Dependants' benefits never count. Under the general rules, a dependant aged 16 to 19 with IIDB, IB within the personal allowance, or SDA leaves CTR income unchanged.

Tests

Expected values are hand-computed from the 2026-27 rates in SI 2026/148 Sch 1:

disablement pension at 100% £233.90 a week, 50% £116.95, 20% £46.78;
long-term incapacity benefit £146.60;
SDA £103.85, plus the higher age addition of £15.50;
full new State Pension £241.30 (art 6(1)).

New and changed files:

council_tax_reduction_prescribed_benefits.yaml (new, 18 cases). It covers:
- IIDB, SDA and IB in each scheme at each age, with the award in three cases;
- a taxable IB case;
- war pensions not counted in each nation, in Kingston upon Thames, Newham and Westminster;
- a dependant's IIDB not counted;
- a household head who applies alone: her own IIDB counted, another couple's in her benefit unit not;
- a guarantee credit recipient with IIDB, whose CTR income is nil.
The property file above, with 4 properties.
Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507's boundary property: the labelled exception above.

Run on this branch:

New YAML: 18 passed. New properties: 4 passed (35 s).
YAML suites gov/local_authorities, gov/dwp/pension_credit and finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit: 708 passed.
pytest -n 4 over test_council_tax_reduction_*, test_pension_credit_*, test_housing_benefit_* and test_benefit_cap_and_ctr_pension_age_properties.py: 107 passed at e135b13. At e38883e, the test_council_tax_reduction_* files plus the two prescribed-benefits property files: 42 passed. The full suite, dispatched on this branch because CI does not run on a PR whose base is not main:
- at e38883e it found one counterexample to property 4. A "dependant" of 19 was under 16 years younger than a claimant of 32, so the model's presumption read them as a partner;
- 1ae527d declares the roles in the generated situations and pins that draw as an example;
- at 1ae527d (run 39383038682): 7,209 passed, 61 skipped, 1 xfailed, dataset present.
ruff format --check and ruff check (0.17.0) on the changed files: clean.

Against #2507's head (a git archive export of 4401f73, with the new tests copied in):

8 YAML cases fail: the IIDB, SDA and IB cases, including the head's own IIDB. The 10 control cases pass.
Properties 1 and 2 fail; 3 and 4 pass.

Against this PR's earlier heads:

at f027311, the Kingston, Newham and dependant cases fail, as do properties 3 and 4;
at b224d1e, the two head-applies-alone cases fail.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_prescribed_benefits.yaml::IIDB counts as pension-age Council Tax Reduction income in England, policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_reduction_prescribed_benefits_properties.py::test_council_tax_reduction_and_pension_credit_assess_the_same_income

Review

Independent reviews ran on Codex lanes.

Review of f027311: changes requested. It raised Newham's top-up, dependants, the £256 case, war pension additions, comment qualifications and the UC scope of invariant 2.
Follow-up of b224d1e. All six findings resolved and the CSP carve-out accepted. One new finding: the mask picked the wrong people where a household head applies alone. e38883e fixes it.
Delta review of e38883e: approve. The mask finding is resolved: another couple's IIDB leaves the head's award at £1,800, against £921.72 before. It found no new regression for dependants, Scottish young applicants, joint claims, guarantee credit or savings credit. 18 YAML cases, 8 properties and all 211 CTR YAML cases passed.

Impact

On PE-UK's certified data (UK hub, 2026-10-20). Run 39410932080 compares main 8ac9d9739 (with #2507 merged) with main merged with this head f12016368, on policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32.

Council Tax Reduction: −£0.4m to −£0.6m a year, with 409 to 443 fewer recipient households.
Unchanged in every year: receipts, poverty, people in poverty and the standard reforms.
Checks: no flags, and none broken.

The 1.58.0 measurement below agrees.

Two real 2026 Microsimulations ran on the certified Enhanced FRS (uk-data 1.58.0, enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 5ba399ea5ab9). They compare #2507's head 4401f73 (base) with this branch's model at e38883e (later commits change tests only). Each ran from a clean git archive export, through the machine-wide heavy lock.

2026, £m	Base	Branch	Change
CTR income (`council_tax_reduction_applicable_income`)	1,374,644.5	1,375,170.8	+526.2
CTR (`council_tax_benefit`)	2,160.48	2,160.05	−0.43
Household net income	1,717,175.99	1,717,175.56	−0.43
Pension Credit	7,033.70	7,033.70	0
Housing Benefit	8,454.04	8,454.04	0

Poverty (BHC and AHC, all people and State Pension age) is unchanged.

Who it reaches. CTR income rises for 358 records, 137,668 weighted benefit units, every one with IIDB, SDA or IB; no family without them changes. Of those 358:

	Records	Weighted benefit units	Income change, £m
Does not claim CTR in the model	296	116,589	459.0
Scheme not simulated, reported CTR kept	10	12,308	31.1
Simulated, base award already nil	28	4,847	19.6
Not the household's claimant benefit unit	12	990	3.3
Simulated, income stays at or below the applicable amount	4	1,522	4.6
Simulated, award falls	8	1,412	8.7

The 8 whose award falls are pension-age families in England and Wales. They lose £304 a year on average, £0.43m in all. The large income change and small award change come mainly from take-up: the model has most of these families not claiming CTR.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#474 queued

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Every scheme council_tax_reduction_applicable_income serves counts them: SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 16(1)(j), SI 2012/2886 Sch paras 39(1)(j) and 54(1), WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 10(1)(j) and Sch 6 para 17(1), SSI 2012/319 reg 27(1)(j) and SSI 2021/249 reg 57(1)(b)(ix)-(xi). War pensions and AFCS payments stay uncounted: Scotland disregards or omits them, and English and Welsh councils may disregard beyond the prescribed £10 a week (WSI 2013/3029 reg 34(5); LGFA 1992 Sch 1A para 2(11), s.13A(1)(c)). Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Kingston upon Thames (Sch 8 para 20, capped at £20 a week by para 40) and Newham (Sch 8 para 19) disregard only £10 a week of each war disablement pension, war widow's pension and AFCS guaranteed income payment for working-age applicants. Westminster, Oxford and Merton disregard them in full, and the national schemes keep the full disregard. The per-payment reading follows Pension Credit's identically worded Sch IV para 1. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

YAML cases per scheme at the 2026-27 statutory rates (SI 2026/148), and Hypothesis properties: Council Tax Reduction and Pension Credit assess the same pension-age income; each benefit counts pound for pound in every scheme; war pensions count only under the Kingston upon Thames and Newham working-age schemes, less £10 a week each. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Each council's pensioner schedule (Sch 6 para 1) disregards only £10 a week of each war pension, with no family limit; Kingston's £20 a week limit (Sch 8 para 40) is a working-age rule. Elsewhere the national pensioner scheme keeps the full disregard. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…r's benefits Review of f027311 found that Newham's s.13A(1)(c) policy (para 2.1) adds, automatically, the reduction a full disregard of war compensation payments would give, and Kingston upon Thames's para 36(6) speaks of a full disregard while its schedules keep the £10. So the £10 branch for those councils overstated their council tax; war pensions stay uncounted everywhere, with each council's text noted. IIDB, SDA and IB now count for the applicant and partner only (SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 11; SSI 2021/249 reg 36(1)), not for dependants that the wider member mask still reaches. The award cases asserting the 256.00 pensioner allowance use claimants who reached pensionable age before April 2021. New properties: war pensions never count, and dependants' benefits never count. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

… property With IB, SDA and IIDB now counted, Council Tax Reduction can end the guarantee credit passport on more income than Pension Credit counted where an overlapping benefit cuts a Scottish carer's Carer Support Payment: Scottish pension-age CTR counts the payment before the CSP Regs reg 16(2) reduction (SSI 2012/319 reg 27(3) and (5)), Pension Credit after it (SPC Regs reg 15(4)(g)). Those families are left out of the boundary invariant until that reading is decided. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…rtner The benefit unit's claimant-or-partner flag picks the wrong people where a household head applies alone: it counted another couple's IIDB against the head's claim and left out her own. Use is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner, which is the head alone in that case and the claimant and partner otherwise. Two YAML cases cover it. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…operties CI found a draw where a dependant of 17 was under 16 years younger than a claimant of 32, so the model's presumption read them as a partner and their IIDB counted. The generated situations now set is_claimant_or_partner for every member, and that draw is pinned as an explicit example. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Review of 1ae527d noted the failing CI draw had a dependant of 19; at 17 the model already reads them as a child. Correct the example and comment. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-20T09:19:49Z

Hand-off to the UK hub (head f12016368)

Review. Independent Codex-lane reviews, 4 rounds:
- f027311: changes requested;
- b224d1e: one new finding;
- e38883e: APPROVE;
- 1ae527d, the test-only delta: APPROVE. Its one comment, that the pinned example's dependant age should be 19, is applied in f120163.
- Reviews and evidence: ~/reviews/uk-ctr-income-2510-2026-10-19/review/.
Passed.
- Full suite dispatched on this branch at 1ae527d (run 39383038682): 7,209 passed, 61 skipped, 1 xfailed.
- Local CTR, PC and HB YAML suites: 708 passed. The new properties pass.
- Real Enhanced FRS impact (uk-data 1.58.0): CTR −£0.43m and CTR income +£526m in 2026; PC, HB and poverty unchanged. Details are in the description.
Pending. CI at f120163 (run 39399832117, dispatched manually). PR CI only runs once the base is main.
Depends on Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507. This PR is stacked on it and merges after it; GitHub retargets to main then. A one-line conflict with Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay #2368 in the same income list is possible, whichever merges second.
Decisions. None needed for this PR. The labelled carve-out in Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507's boundary property follows the parked d861 (Scottish CSP before or after reg 16(2)).
Axiom: Encode which benefits and war pensions CTR income counts in every scheme: SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 16 and Sch 5; SI 2012/2886 Sch paras 39, 54 and Sch 8; WSI 2013/3029 reg 34(5); SSI 2012/319 reg 27 and Sch 3; SSI 2021/249 reg 57; Kingston and Newham (PE parity: policyengine-uk#2512) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#474 queued.
Follow-ups already tracked: Pensioner council tax reduction: applicable amount (post-April-2021 allowance, children, severe disability premium) and income (Child Benefit, tariff income) #1933, Scotland and Wales working-age council tax reduction ignores the Universal Credit rules, child amounts and the benefit passport #1962/Give Scotland and Wales working-age council tax reduction their own rules (UC routes, passport, child amounts) #1966, Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-20T15:45:12Z

UK hub: closing and reopening at once to trigger the pull_request workflows. The retarget to main after #2507 merged fired only Fix evidence, so the required Test / Result and Lint checks never ran on f120163. The head is unchanged.

github-actions · 2026-10-20T16:29:06Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base a6c42d7c26 against head 7bdf62565e, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	-£0.4m	-£0.4m	-£0.5m	-£0.5m	-£0.5m	-£0.6m	-£0.6m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	-442	-443	-409	-411	-413	-415	-416
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	-£0.4m †	-£0.4m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.6m †	-£0.6m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£0.4m †	+£0.4m †	+£0.5m †	+£0.5m †	+£0.5m †	+£0.6m †	+£0.6m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	-£0.4m †	-£0.4m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.6m †	-£0.6m †
household_benefits	-£0.4m †	-£0.4m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.6m †	-£0.6m †
gov_balance	+£0.4m †	+£0.4m †	+£0.5m †	+£0.5m †	+£0.5m †	+£0.6m †	+£0.6m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£0.4m †	-£0.4m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.5m †	-£0.6m †	-£0.6m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£0.4m	-£0.4m	-£0.5m	-£0.5m	-£0.5m	-£0.6m	-£0.6m

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.05 †	-£0.05 †	-£0.04 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.11 †	+£0.12 †	+£0.12 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.06 †	-£0.06 †	-£0.06 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.07 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.02 †	-£0.02 †	-£0.02 †	-£0.03 †	-£0.03 †	-£0.03 †	-£0.03 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.06 †	-£0.06 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.08 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.09 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£5,328	+£4,704	+£4,116	+£3,858	+£3,579	+£3,300	+£3,318
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£0	-£0	+£0	+£0	-£0	+£0	0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£10,241	+£10,282	+£10,935	+£10,981	+£11,027	+£11,078	+£4,287
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	0	0	0	0	0	+£0	+£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	0	-£0	+£0	0	-£0	0	0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	0	-£0	+£0	+£0	0	-£0	+£0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	0	-£0	-£1	+£0	+£0	+£2	+£2
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	+£0	-£0	+£0	+£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£0	-£0	0	+£0	+£0	+£0	0
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 3	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 4	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 6	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 8	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2026-27	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2027-28	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2028-29	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2029-30	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2030-31	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2031-32	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; components the model counts twice; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `a6c42d7c26`	uk 2.140.1 (files `d45a1c1e7e42`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`4eb152553cbe`	`0d0426ee9e38`	931.71s
head	#2512 merged into main `7bdf62565e`	uk 2.139.5 (files `b893dc1a72e4`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`bdbfc93aa317`	`0d0426ee9e38`	933.29s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.12bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.02bn	£7.09bn	£7.21bn	£7.34bn	£7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.20bn	£9.34bn	£9.62bn	£9.88bn	£10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.24bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,490k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,212k	3,225k	3,247k	3,262k	3,281k	3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.39bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£536.58bn †	£550.93bn †	£557.26bn †	£564.33bn †	£572.89bn †	£582.14bn †	£591.31bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.81bn †	£388.28bn †	£418.90bn †	£444.98bn †	£472.00bn †	£499.52bn †	£531.20bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.52bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£536.58bn †	£550.93bn †	£557.26bn †	£564.33bn †	£572.89bn †	£582.14bn †	£591.31bn †
household_benefits	£536.58bn †	£550.93bn †	£557.26bn †	£564.33bn †	£572.89bn †	£582.14bn †	£591.31bn †
gov_balance	£365.94bn †	£391.41bn †	£422.03bn †	£448.11bn †	£475.13bn †	£502.65bn †	£534.33bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,658.20bn †	£1,706.79bn †	£1,738.63bn †	£1,772.81bn †	£1,809.07bn †	£1,850.79bn †	£1,902.54bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.76bn	£1,513.57bn	£1,545.82bn	£1,578.87bn	£1,613.06bn	£1,652.19bn	£1,702.63bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.2%	12.0%	12.2%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.1%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.5%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.3%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.6%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.3%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.3%	12.2%	12.3%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,078k	11,209k	11,218k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,315k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,544k	1,560k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,540k	14,214k	14,692k	14,933k	15,151k	15,389k	15,523k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,767k	4,515k	4,643k	4,699k	4,756k	4,835k	4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,277k	8,253k	8,666k	8,844k	8,994k	9,142k	9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,496k	1,445k	1,382k	1,390k	1,402k	1,412k	1,424k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,759k	11,456k	11,503k	11,625k	11,706k	11,868k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,514k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,365k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,765k	1,758k	1,624k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,912k	14,719k	14,901k	15,003k	15,218k	15,281k	15,509k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,889k	4,715k	4,697k	4,720k	4,791k	4,799k	4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,435k	8,497k	8,758k	8,878k	9,019k	9,074k	9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,588k	1,506k	1,446k	1,406k	1,409k	1,408k	1,422k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3065	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£18,018 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,365 †	£29,041 †	£28,681 †	£29,001 †	£29,381 †	£29,782 †	£30,333 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,607 †	£35,898 †	£36,499 †	£37,002 †	£37,275 †	£37,955 †	£38,662 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,326 †	£40,905 †	£41,932 †	£42,824 †	£43,176 †	£43,836 †	£44,936 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,874 †	£46,153 †	£46,931 †	£47,447 †	£48,381 †	£49,255 †	£50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,931 †	£49,324 †	£50,272 †	£51,050 †	£52,160 †	£52,929 †	£54,244 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,322 †	£57,579 †	£58,472 †	£59,449 †	£60,166 †	£61,632 †	£62,883 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,252 †	£70,364 †	£71,639 †	£72,874 †	£74,337 †	£75,704 †	£77,574 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,674 †	£82,009 †	£83,247 †	£84,449 †	£86,137 †	£87,749 †	£89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,666 †	£120,533 †	£122,448 †	£124,609 †	£126,968 †	£129,679 †	£132,877 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.93bn	£-9.14bn	£-9.04bn	£-9.08bn	£-9.28bn	£-9.53bn	£-9.80bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

This was referenced Oct 19, 2026

Count IIDB, SDA, incapacity benefit and maternity allowance in Pension Credit income #2507

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Pension Credit income still omits IIDB, SDA, the AFCS guaranteed income payment and other countable income #1954

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MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 20, 2026 00:15

MaxGhenis force-pushed the ctr-income-prescribed-benefits branch from df1496e to f027311 Compare October 20, 2026 04:17

MaxGhenis changed the title ~~Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income~~ Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income, and Kingston and Newham war pensions Oct 20, 2026

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 20, 2026 00:41

MaxGhenis changed the title ~~Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income, and Kingston and Newham war pensions~~ Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income Oct 20, 2026

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 20, 2026 00:58

Pin the CI counterexample at the dependant age CI drew (19)

f120163

Review of 1ae527d noted the failing CI draw had a dependant of 19; at 17 the model already reads them as a child. Correct the example and comment. Part of #2510. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 20, 2026 09:19

Base automatically changed from pension-credit-prescribed-benefits to main October 20, 2026 10:37

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MaxGhenis reopened this Oct 20, 2026

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Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income - #2512

Count IIDB, SDA and incapacity benefit in Council Tax Reduction income#2512
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War pensions and AFCS payments: unchanged

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Spending by benefit and service

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