Give Council Tax Reduction and Income Support their own pension contribution shares by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2516 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-19T21:57:02Z

Status: ready, handed to the UK hub.

Review: independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol) approved head daa3291a8 in round 3.
Aggregate impact: no change.
CI: running at daa3291a8. The Python shards haven't completed at any head since round 1, because each push cancelled the run before. Their passing is the remaining gate.

Summary

Council Tax Reduction (CTR) and Income Support (IS) deducted a hard-coded 0.5 of pension contributions. The CTR pensioner earnings disregards were capped at housing_benefit_net_earnings, which reads Housing Benefit's (HB's) share. As a result:

a reform of HB's share moved the CTR disregard cap but not CTR income;
neither CTR nor IS could be reformed on its own.

#2497 does the same for HB applicable income. JSA is #140 and is left alone.

What the law says

Each scheme's regulations state their own one-half, and none refers to HB's. So each scheme gets its own parameter at 0.5, and none reads the HB parameter.

Parameter	Value	Law
`gov.dwp.income_support.means_test.pension_contribution_deduction_rate`	0.5 from 1988-04-11	SI 1987/1967 reg 36(3)(b) (as made and now), reg 38(1)(b)(ii), (3)(c), (9)(b)
`gov.local_authorities.england.council_tax_reduction.pensioners.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2013-04-01	SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 19(2)(b)-(c), (5)(c); para 29(1)(b)(ii), (2)(c), (8)(b)
`….england.council_tax_reduction.default_scheme.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2013-04-01	SI 2012/2886 Sch paras 42, 52 and 61; LGFA 1992 Sch 1A para 4
`….wales.council_tax_reduction.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2013-04-01	WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 paras 13 and 23, Sch 6 paras 15 and 24; WSI 2013/3035 Sch paras 39, 49 and 58; WSI 2012/3144 for 2013-14
`….scotland.council_tax_reduction.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2013-04-01	SSI 2012/319 regs 33 and 36; SSI 2021/249 regs 50(3), 50(5) and 51(9) from 1 April 2022; SSI 2012/303 regs 35 and 37 before that
`….{merton, kingston_upon_thames, newham}.council_tax_reduction.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2026-04-01	each council's 2026-27 scheme, paras 52(3)(b)-(c), 52(6)(c) and 61
`….oxford.council_tax_reduction.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2026-04-01	Oxford's 2026-27 scheme, Part 1 para 18 and Annex 5
`….westminster.council_tax_reduction.means_test.…`	0.5 from 2026-04-01	Westminster's 2026/27 scheme s.4 says the default scheme forms its basis; it doesn't restate the rule, so the parameter cites the default scheme's para 52

How the law was checked:

Each instrument was read in its current text and as made, from legislation.gov.uk's XML.
The council schemes were read from the PDFs and pages the repo already cites.
Every one says one-half (Scotland's 2021 regulations say "half").

The council parameters start on 2026-04-01, as their siblings do. The model backdates every parameter to 2015.

What changes in the model

council_tax_reduction_pension_contribution_deduction_rate (new, BenUnit) picks the family's scheme's share. It uses the same scheme tests as simulated_council_tax_reduction_benunit:
- England pensioners use the England pensioner share, including pensioners in the five councils.
- Scotland, Wales and the five councils' working-age families use their scheme's share.
- Everyone else reads the England default scheme's share. That covers English working-age families elsewhere, whose CTR is taken as reported, and Northern Ireland, which has no CTR. Their applicable income reaches no award.
council_tax_reduction_applicable_income reads that share instead of 0.5.
income_support_applicable_income reads the IS parameter instead of 0.5.
council_tax_reduction_net_earnings (new) is net earnings for the CTR pensioner disregards. It uses HB's earnings and deduction rules at the scheme's own share.
- The per-person rules moved unchanged into _net_earnings.py:person_net_earnings. housing_benefit_net_earnings calls it with HB's share.
- council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard now caps at council_tax_reduction_net_earnings, so a reform of a CTR share moves CTR income and the cap together, and a reform of HB's share moves neither.

Known gap, not changed here. Some schemes assess a working-age applicant with a Universal Credit award on the Secretary of State's UC figures, which deduct relievable pension contributions in full (UC Regs 2013 reg 55(5)(a) for employed earnings, reg 57(2) step 4 for self-employed earnings):

Wales: WSI 2013/3029 Sch 6 para 9;
Scotland: SSI 2021/249 regs 49(6)(a) and 51(2) step 4;
Oxford: its scheme's Appendix 3, DWP's net earned income plus the award.

The model has no such route for these schemes yet: #1962 covers Wales and Scotland, and #2520 (opened from this PR's review) covers Oxford. So the 0.5 share reaches those applicants too. Merton, Kingston upon Thames, Newham and Westminster already use UC income through _legacy.py. The rate variable documents all this; it is outside this wiring change.

Invariants

These hold for every input. test_pension_contribution_deduction_rate_properties.py states them and tests them with Hypothesis.

Exactness. With the floors slack, moving a scheme's share from 0.5 to r lowers that scheme's applicable income by exactly the family's contributions × (r − 0.5). The scheme's net earnings move the same way. This holds for CTR (every route), IS and HB net earnings.
Locality. Every share in the reform is drawn distinct, so a family that read another scheme's share, or HB's, would fail (1). The test covers 13 routes, including pensioners in Merton (England pensioner scheme) and Northern Ireland (default scheme).
When the disregard caps are slack, the CTR pensioner disregards don't move.
Differential. At current law, CTR net earnings equal HB net earnings.
Current law. Every share is 0.5 in every financial year from 2015 to 2030.

The YAML cases are hand-derived. One family on each scheme gets a 0.25 reform, beside a control on another scheme. A pensioner whose net earnings fall below the £5 disregard shows the cap and the deduction moving together. Couples show contributions summed.

Current-law outputs

Unchanged by construction. Every new parameter is exactly 0.5, the value of the literals it replaces. person_net_earnings keeps HB's operations in the same order. council_tax_reduction_net_earnings uses HB's claimant-and-partner mask.

Aggregate impact on certified data: no change.

Re-measured by the UK hub at the final head (2026-10-20): run 39383597838 compares main 47642d1ee with main merged with daa3291a8. It finds no change in any figure in any year, 2025-26 to 2031-32, and no household's net income changes. The PR-triggered report at this head compared against a stale base (685963c2d, 26 main commits behind its merge commit), so its 55 flagged moves belong to main's other merges, not to this PR. That defect is fixed in Compare a pull request with its merge commit's first parent in the Aggregate impact report #2522.
The run: run 39331419558 compares base 685963c2d with this PR merged into it (858b34022, head 0a6b36b81). Both use enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1) and cover fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32, a full microsimulation per year on each side.
What doesn't change: no household's net income in any year, and no receipts, spending, caseloads, poverty, inequality, decile or standard reform costing figures.
Checks: none broken. One check fails on both sides, as on main: VAT is never negative.
Later commits: none of them changes a formula. cc86a337a changes only the property test. d77037fc0 and daa3291a8 change only tests, documentation strings, parameter descriptions and reference metadata. The PR's Aggregate impact run re-runs on each push.

Tests

No full local suite was run: the route-a-release-2026-10 reservation (to 2026-10-21 04:00Z) holds back heavy local work, so CI runs the suite.

CI at 0a6b36b81:
- every job passed except Test / Python 2/4, which failed at test_each_scheme_moves_by_contributions_times_its_own_change_in_share;
- the cause was the test, not the model: the share is float32, so 0.05 reads back as 0.0500000007, and the test compared it exactly;
- cc86a337a compares within 1e-6;
- Test / YAML passed, including every hand-derived case in both new YAML files.
Local, one process, against this worktree's source (policyengine-core 3.33.2, as uv.lock pins):
- pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_pension_contribution_deduction_rate_properties.py passes (2 tests, 18 s);
- as a mutation check, swapping the Scotland and Wales shares in the selector makes the property test fail. The selector was then restored byte for byte.
At d77037fc0, locally, one process:
- the property test passes (2 tests, including the every-route example);
- both new YAML files pass (23 cases).
Reproducer on main: run against an export of origin/main's source, the case A reform of the Housing Benefit share leaves the Council Tax Reduction disregard cap fails by value: council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard is 250, not 200.
uvx ruff@0.17.0 format --check . and ruff check on the changed files pass.
Every reference URL in the new parameters resolves (HTTP 200).

Review

Round 1 was GPT-6.1 Sol at 0a6b36b81 (~/reviews/pe-uk-2516/review-r1.md). Its verdict was REQUEST_CHANGES at that head, and it judged cc86a337a approvable once CI is green. Its findings and the responses:

Blocking: float32 exact compare in the property test. Fixed in cc86a337a.
The reproducer failed on main only by a missing variable. It now reads only main's variables. The new variables moved to a companion case.
Routes could go untested. An explicit example now covers all 13 routes, each with a contributing family.
Oxford's UC claimants. Oxford is added to the caveat, and Oxford Council Tax Reduction assesses Universal Credit claimants on legacy income, not Appendix 3 #2520 is opened.
Citations. Added UC Regs 2013 reg 55(5)(a). SSI 2021/249 reg 51(9) is described as taking SSI 2012/303 regs 37 and 38.
The merge-order plan was incomplete. Expanded to the four points above.
Housekeeping. HB net earnings documentation now says HB's own share. The axiom: line is kept (no value changes).

Round 2 was GPT-6.1 Sol at d77037fc0 (~/reviews/pe-uk-2516/review-r2.md).

Verdict: REQUEST_CHANGES, for evidence only. It asked for no code change: it wants the Python shards to pass in CI at the final head. They were cancelled at cc86a337a when d77037fc0 was pushed, and that is the merge gate here too.
Round-1 findings: all resolved. Its note on Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078 is corrected: Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078 does edit the disregard file, so step 3 is a two-sided textual conflict.
New finding A (low): reg 55(5)(a) covers employed earnings only. Fixed in daa3291a8, which adds reg 57(2) step 4 for self-employed earnings.
New finding B (nit): stale evidence lines in this body. Fixed above.

Merge order

#2078 also restructures housing_benefit_net_earnings. It moves the per-person rules into housing_benefit_person_net_earnings and adds its own council_tax_reduction_net_earnings (over the CTR applicant and partner). Whichever lands second must:

Make housing_benefit_person_net_earnings call person_net_earnings with HB's share.
Resolve the add/add conflict on council_tax_reduction_net_earnings.py: sum person_net_earnings at the CTR share (council_tax_reduction_pension_contribution_deduction_rate) over Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's applicant mask. Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's documentation says the variable equals housing_benefit_net_earnings when the applicant is the claimant; qualify that to "while the two shares are equal".
Keep council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard reading the merged council_tax_reduction_net_earnings, never housing_benefit_net_earnings. Both PRs edit this file, so expect a textual conflict.
In council_tax_reduction_applicable_income.py, keep * council_tax_reduction_pension_contribution_deduction_rate on Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's new applicant mask.

This PR is handed to the UK hub, which owns the merge order. If #2078 lands first, the hub dispatches this resolution here.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/pension_contribution_deduction_rate.yaml::A reform of the Housing Benefit share leaves the Council Tax Reduction disregard cap, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/income_support/pension_contribution_deduction_rate.yaml::A reform of the Income Support share moves Income Support applicable income, policyengine_uk/tests/test_pension_contribution_deduction_rate_properties.py::test_each_scheme_moves_by_contributions_times_its_own_change_in_share

axiom: n/a: infrastructure — parameter wiring for shares that are 0.5 in law and in the model (current-law outputs unchanged); the law review found no current-law error in the values

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Council Tax Reduction and Income Support deducted a hard-coded 0.5 of pension contributions, while the CTR pensioner earnings disregards were capped at Housing Benefit net earnings, which read Housing Benefit's share. A reform of HB's share therefore moved the CTR disregard cap but not CTR income, and neither scheme could be reformed on its own. Each scheme's regulations state their own one-half and none refers to HB's, so each gets its own parameter at 0.5: - Income Support: SI 1987/1967 regs 36(3)(b) and 38. - CTR, by scheme: England pensioners (SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 paras 19, 29), the England default scheme (SI 2012/2886), Wales (WSI 2013/3029), Scotland (SSI 2012/319, SSI 2021/249) and the working-age schemes of Merton, Kingston upon Thames, Newham, Westminster and Oxford. council_tax_reduction_pension_contribution_deduction_rate picks the family's scheme's share. CTR applicable income reads it, and the pensioner disregards now cap at council_tax_reduction_net_earnings, which shares HB's earnings rules (factored into _net_earnings.py) at the scheme's own share. Current-law outputs are unchanged. Fixes #2515 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-10-19T23:01:01Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 685963c2d1 against head 207aae39fd, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 55 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	1,451k	1,406k	-44.9k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£48,191	£47,930	-£262
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£47,704	£47,447	-£257
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£54,501	£54,240	-£261
Universal Credit	2031-32	£90.80bn	£90.33bn	-£463.7m
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£42,630	£42,824	+£194
Universal Credit	2030-31	£89.45bn	£89.00bn	-£452.6m
Universal Credit	2029-30	£88.02bn	£87.58bn	-£442.5m
Universal Credit	2028-29	£87.08bn	£86.65bn	-£431.1m
Universal Credit	2027-28	£85.32bn	£84.89bn	-£421.0m
Universal Credit	2026-27	£83.50bn	£83.09bn	-£410.0m
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2028-29	12.7%	12.3%	-0.39pp
Universal Credit	2025-26	£79.17bn	£78.78bn	-£393.7m
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£44,700	£44,874	+£174
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£49,917	£50,076	+£159
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	23.7%	23.4%	-0.26pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2031-32	6,738k	6,651k	-86.7k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£50,386	£50,259	-£126
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2031-32	12,060k	11,914k	-146.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2029-30	6,617k	6,537k	-80.0k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£49,438	£49,323	-£115
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,680k	1,661k	-19.5k
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£46,052	£46,154	+£102
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	3,642k	3,602k	-40.2k
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£40,990	£40,904	-£86
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2031-32	16.9%	16.7%	-0.21pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2030-31	1,651k	1,634k	-17.0k
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£53,033	£52,925	-£108
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2031-32	15.2%	15.0%	-0.20pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2029-30	11,816k	11,706k	-110.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	2029-30	15.1%	14.9%	-0.18pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2029-30	1,637k	1,623k	-13.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	14.6%	14.4%	-0.17pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2029-30	16.7%	16.6%	-0.16pp
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£56,419	£56,335	-£84
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2030-31	14.4%	14.2%	-0.15pp
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£35,848	£35,900	+£53
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£70,442	£70,340	-£102
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2025-26	25.7%	25.6%	-0.14pp
Government balance, each receipt once	2025-26	£362.27bn	£362.78bn	+£513.3m

15 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	+£116.8m	0	0	0	0	-£10,720	-£9,842
Capital gains tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£6	-£6

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	-£2.8m	0	0	0	0	0	0
Universal Credit	-£393.7m	-£410.0m	-£421.0m	-£431.1m	-£442.5m	-£452.6m	-£463.7m
Council Tax Reduction	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	0	0	0	0
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	-98	-336	-337	-242	-243	-244	-245
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	+£116.8m	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
Government spending	-£396.4m †	-£409.8m †	-£420.8m †	-£431.1m †	-£442.5m †	-£452.6m †	-£463.7m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£513.3m †	+£409.8m †	+£420.8m †	+£431.1m †	+£442.5m †	+£452.6m †	+£463.7m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	+£116.8m	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
household_tax	+£116.8m	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
pre_budget_change_household_tax	+£116.8m	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
gov_spending	-£396.4m †	-£409.8m †	-£420.8m †	-£431.1m †	-£442.5m †	-£452.6m †	-£463.7m †
household_benefits	-£396.4m †	-£409.8m †	-£420.8m †	-£431.1m †	-£442.5m †	-£452.6m †	-£463.7m †
gov_balance	+£513.3m †	+£409.8m †	+£420.8m †	+£431.1m †	+£442.5m †	+£452.6m †	+£463.7m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£513.3m †	-£409.8m †	-£420.8m †	-£431.1m †	-£442.5m †	-£452.6m †	-£463.7m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£513.3m	-£409.8m	-£420.8m	-£431.1m	-£442.5m	-£452.6m	-£463.7m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp	+0.02pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+0.01pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.06pp	0	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.16pp	-0.05pp	-0.21pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.14pp	0	-0.03pp	-0.01pp	-0.11pp	-0.04pp	-0.26pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.05pp	0	-0.03pp	-0.02pp	-0.18pp	-0.04pp	-0.20pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	0	-0.04pp	-0.06pp	-0.12pp	-0.15pp	-0.17pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.01pp	-0.07pp	+0.00pp	-0.09pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	-0.01pp	+0.01pp	-0.10pp	-0.02pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	-0.11pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	0	-0.39pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	0	+1.5k	+1.5k	+1.5k	+1.5k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	+4.6k	+3.7k	+3.7k	+5.3k	+5.3k	+5.3k	+5.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	+2.3k	+1.9k	+1.9k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	+2.3k	+1.9k	+1.9k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k	+2.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	+507	+509	+511	+513
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-43.3k	0	-22.1k	-18.4k	-110.2k	-38.3k	-146.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-21.4k	0	-4.1k	-2.3k	-16.3k	-5.6k	-40.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-20.5k	0	-13.7k	-9.0k	-80.0k	-15.8k	-86.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-1.5k	0	-4.3k	-7.1k	-13.9k	-17.0k	-19.5k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-3.3k	+2.2k	+3.7k	-52.1k	+2.4k	-64.1k	-8.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	+2.9k	+1.6k	+1.9k	-1.2k	+1.7k	-15.7k	-3.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-5.4k	+790	+1.9k	-6.0k	+496	-48.6k	-4.2k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-850	-151	0	-44.9k	+201	+246	-1.4k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001	+0.0001

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.70 †	+£1.74 †	+£1.77 †	+£1.76 †	+£1.80 †	+£1.84 †	+£1.87 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.80 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.33 †	-£0.34 †	-£0.34 †	-£0.35 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£14 †	+£53 †	-£17 †	-£6.45 †	-£14 †	+£39 †	-£20 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£13 †	-£86 †	+£35 †	+£194 †	-£18 †	-£11 †	-£6.84 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£174 †	+£102 †	+£39 †	-£257 †	+£11 †	-£46 †	+£159 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£262 †	-£115 †	-£126 †	-£53 †	-£60 †	-£108 †	-£261 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£84 †	-£19 †	-£47 †	+£58 †	-£36 †	+£38 †	-£13 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£7.47 †	-£102 †	-£24 †	-£99 †	+£4.57 †	-£81 †	-£2.07 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£13 †	-£1.05 †	+£7.15 †	-£15 †	-£1.62 †	-£1.65 †	-£1.69 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£52 †	-£13 †	-£13 †	-£13 †	-£14 †	-£14 †	-£14 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£25,289	+£72,245	+£73,743	+£50,157	+£50,500	+£48,463	+£49,579
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£18,456	+£25,369	+£29,237	+£32,749	+£42,154	+£54,397	+£54,868
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£0.2m	-£37,345	-£37,427	-£22,942	-£22,981	-£16,612	-£4,313
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£25,957	-£23,969	-£22,681	-£33	-£21	-£14	+£91
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	+£0.7m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£0.9m	+£0.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£42,799	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£84,024	+£63,212
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£14	-£28	+£5	+£40	-£24	-£48	+£0
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£392	-£0	+£0	-£0	+£0	0	0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	+£68,523	+£0.3m	+£0.3m	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£96,954	+£58,231
Raise the State Pension by 10%	-£0.1m	-£22,263	-£10,503	-£22	+£5	+£0	+£0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	+£3,995	0	0	0	0	-£0	0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£131	0	0	0	0	-£0	0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	-£0.1m	0	0	0	0	+£10,720	+£9,842
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	-£0.7m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£1.0m	-£0.9m	-£0.9m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	+£1	0	0	0	0	-£0	0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	-£68,555	-£0.3m	-£0.3m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£97,024	-£58,264

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£3 (-0.0%)
Decile 4	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£9 (-0.0%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)
Decile 5	-£20 (-0.0%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£29 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£30 (-0.1%)
Decile 6	-£45 (-0.1%)	-£43 (-0.1%)	-£47 (-0.1%)	-£47 (-0.1%)	-£49 (-0.1%)	-£50 (-0.1%)	-£52 (-0.1%)
Decile 7	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£22 (-0.0%)	-£23 (-0.0%)	-£27 (-0.0%)
Decile 8	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£11 (-0.0%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)
Decile 9	-£1 (-0.0%)	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	-£52 (-0.0%)	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
all	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£15 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	1.7%	1.7%
2026-27	0.1%	1.0%
2027-28	0.1%	1.0%
2028-29	0.0%	1.0%
2029-30	0.0%	1.0%
2030-31	0.0%	1.0%
2031-32	0.0%	1.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `685963c2d1`	uk 2.139.3 (files `e7e8b87d3d03`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`df10e7457561`	`0d0426ee9e38`	919.06s
head	#2516 merged into main `207aae39fd`	uk 2.139.5 (files `3d57536889db`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`bdbfc93aa317`	`0d0426ee9e38`	900.95s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.12bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.06bn	£7.04bn	£7.11bn	£7.23bn	£7.37bn	£7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.60bn	£8.93bn	£9.20bn	£9.34bn	£9.62bn	£9.88bn	£10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.24bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,253k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,213k	3,226k	3,247k	3,263k	3,282k	3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.39bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£536.61bn †	£550.95bn †	£557.29bn †	£564.36bn †	£572.91bn †	£582.17bn †	£591.33bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.78bn †	£388.26bn †	£418.88bn †	£444.96bn †	£471.97bn †	£499.50bn †	£531.17bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.52bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£536.61bn †	£550.95bn †	£557.29bn †	£564.36bn †	£572.91bn †	£582.17bn †	£591.33bn †
household_benefits	£536.61bn †	£550.95bn †	£557.29bn †	£564.36bn †	£572.91bn †	£582.17bn †	£591.33bn †
gov_balance	£365.91bn †	£391.39bn †	£422.01bn †	£448.09bn †	£475.10bn †	£502.63bn †	£534.30bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,658.22bn †	£1,706.81bn †	£1,738.65bn †	£1,772.83bn †	£1,809.10bn †	£1,850.82bn †	£1,902.56bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.78bn	£1,513.59bn	£1,545.85bn	£1,578.89bn	£1,613.08bn	£1,652.21bn	£1,702.66bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.2%	12.0%	12.2%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.3%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.3%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.5%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.3%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.6%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.3%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.3%	12.2%	12.3%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,078k	11,209k	11,217k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,314k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,543k	1,560k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,540k	14,214k	14,692k	14,933k	15,150k	15,388k	15,522k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,767k	4,515k	4,643k	4,699k	4,756k	4,835k	4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,277k	8,253k	8,666k	8,844k	8,993k	9,141k	9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,496k	1,445k	1,382k	1,390k	1,402k	1,412k	1,424k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,759k	11,456k	11,529k	11,625k	11,706k	11,867k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,515k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,366k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,765k	1,758k	1,648k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,912k	14,719k	14,901k	15,009k	15,218k	15,281k	15,509k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,889k	4,715k	4,697k	4,720k	4,791k	4,799k	4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,435k	8,497k	8,758k	8,884k	9,018k	9,074k	9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,588k	1,506k	1,446k	1,406k	1,408k	1,408k	1,422k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3065	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£18,017 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,364 †	£29,040 †	£28,680 †	£29,001 †	£29,377 †	£29,781 †	£30,332 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,611 †	£35,900 †	£36,502 †	£37,005 †	£37,283 †	£37,961 †	£38,665 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,326 †	£40,904 †	£41,932 †	£42,824 †	£43,176 †	£43,833 †	£44,936 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,874 †	£46,154 †	£46,943 †	£47,447 †	£48,381 †	£49,255 †	£50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,323 †	£50,259 †	£51,047 †	£52,157 †	£52,925 †	£54,240 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,335 †	£57,591 †	£58,487 †	£59,458 †	£60,171 †	£61,648 †	£62,900 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,228 †	£70,340 †	£71,615 †	£72,863 †	£74,332 †	£75,678 †	£77,547 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,674 †	£82,009 †	£83,247 †	£84,449 †	£86,137 †	£87,749 †	£89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,666 †	£120,533 †	£122,448 †	£124,609 †	£126,968 †	£129,679 †	£132,877 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.93bn	£-9.14bn	£-9.04bn	£-9.09bn	£-9.29bn	£-9.54bn	£-9.81bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

The model holds council_tax_reduction_pension_contribution_deduction_rate as float32, so a 0.05 share reads back as 0.0500000007 and the exact comparison failed in CI (Test / Python 2/4). Compare within 1e-6 and drop the comment's wrong claim that twentieths are exact in binary. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

- Make the HB-reform disregard-cap reproducer read only variables that exist on main, so it fails there by value (disregard 250, not 200); the new variables move to a companion case. - Add a Hypothesis example with a contributing family on all 13 routes, so every route is tested whatever Hypothesis draws. - Extend the rate selector's UC caveat to Oxford, whose Appendix 3 assesses UC claimants on DWP's net earned income (#2520), and cite UC Regs 2013 reg 55(5)(a) for the full deduction. - Say that SSI 2021/249 reg 51(9) takes self-employed net profit from SSI 2012/303 regs 37 and 38, and that Oxford's share is for applicants who do not receive UC. - Describe HB net earnings as deducting HB's own share. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Review round 2 (finding A): reg 55(5)(a) covers employed earnings only; the full deduction of relievable pension contributions from self-employed earnings is reg 57(2) step 4. Documentation only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-20T03:33:05Z

Hand-off to the UK hub (session local_830eef6e-8eec-4ada-8b94-6cdd0fb631b0, 2026-10-20)

Head: daa3291a8fa4b0a3090b1eef6a0420440a768779. Ready, not a draft.
Review: GPT-6.1 Sol, three rounds, all saved in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2516/:
- round 1 (review-r1.md): REQUEST_CHANGES at 0a6b36b81 for the float32 test bug;
- round 2 (review-r2.md): no code change asked, approval conditional on CI evidence;
- round 3 (review-r3.md): APPROVE at daa3291a8.
Passed: Aggregate impact on certified data shows no change in any year (run 39331419558, at 0a6b36b81; the later commits touch only tests, docs and metadata). At 0a6b36b81, Test / YAML (all hand-derived cases), Lint, Fix evidence, Docs and smoke-import passed.
Local, one process, at d77037fc0: the property test passed, all 23 new YAML cases passed, and the reproducer fails on main by value.
Pending: the full CI run at daa3291a8. The Python shards haven't completed at any head since the float32 fix, because each push cancelled the run before. They are the remaining gate.
Merge order: Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078 restructures the same net-earnings files. Whichever lands second needs the four-step resolution in the PR body's "Merge order" section.
Release: a patch release (a fixed fragment) that may land in the Budget certification window. Notice 43 says the coordinator should hear early.
Decisions: none queued; nothing here needs Max.
Follow-ups:
- Oxford Council Tax Reduction assesses Universal Credit claimants on legacy income, not Appendix 3 #2520 (Oxford's UC route, found in review) has a proposed session card in this session;
- Scotland and Wales working-age council tax reduction ignores the Universal Credit rules, child amounts and the benefit passport #1962 already tracks the Wales and Scotland UC route;
- the Carer's Allowance twin is Read Carer's Allowance's pension contribution share from a parameter #2518, already handed off.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-20T13:18:57Z

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, from the owner session's hand-off (local_830eef6e). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head daa3291a8fa4b0a3090b1eef6a0420440a768779.

Review: GPT-6.1 Sol, three rounds (~/reviews/pe-uk-2516/).
- Round 1 asked for the float32 test fix.
- Round 2 asked for no code change; it held only for CI evidence that the Python shards, including the property test, pass.
- Round 3 approved daa3291a8.
- Rounds 2 and 3 had no shell. CI's 15 passing checks at this head supply the execution round 2 asked for.
Impact: none. The hub's clean re-measurement at this head, run 39383597838, compared main 47642d1ee with main merged with this head: no change in any figure in any year. The PR-triggered report's 55 flags came from a stale base (Compare a pull request with its merge commit's first parent in the Aggregate impact report #2522).
Checks: all 15 passed at the head, and the merge queue re-tested against current main.
Merge order: this lands before Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078, which restructures the same net-earnings files. Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's owner (daaeac64) has been told to follow the four-step resolution in this PR's body.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…eans-test Resolution, as set out in #2516's "Merge order" section: - housing_benefit_net_earnings: #2516's version (person_net_earnings with Housing Benefit's own share); housing_benefit_person_net_earnings removed. - council_tax_reduction_net_earnings: person_net_earnings at council_tax_reduction_pension_contribution_deduction_rate, summed over is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner. - council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard: reads council_tax_reduction_net_earnings, keeping the head-alone rates and conditions. - council_tax_reduction_applicable_income: #2516's scheme share applied to the applicant-and-partner members (auto-merged). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…icant-means-test

This was referenced Oct 19, 2026

Carer's Allowance earnings hard-code the one-half pension contribution deduction #2517

Closed

Read Carer's Allowance's pension contribution share from a parameter #2518

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MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Oxford Council Tax Reduction assesses Universal Credit claimants on legacy income, not Appendix 3 #2520

Open

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 19, 2026 23:19

MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 20, 2026 03:32

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Compare a pull request with its merge commit's first parent in the Aggregate impact report #2522

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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 20, 2026

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078

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Merged via the queue into main with commit bb031e2 Oct 20, 2026
16 of 19 checks passed

MaxGhenis deleted the ctr-is-pension-deduction-rates branch October 20, 2026 13:17

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 20, 2026

Merge origin/main (c281c2e: #2508, #1913, #2518, #2516) into ctr-appl…

38a251c

…icant-means-test

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Give Council Tax Reduction and Income Support their own pension contribution shares - #2516

Give Council Tax Reduction and Income Support their own pension contribution shares#2516
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 20, 2026

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 19, 2026 • edited Loading Uh oh! There was an error while loading. Please reload this page.

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Summary

What the law says

What changes in the model

Invariants

Current-law outputs

Tests

Review

Merge order

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github-actions Bot commented Oct 19, 2026 • edited Loading Uh oh! There was an error while loading. Please reload this page.

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

Moves flagged for review

Receipts by tax head

Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Government balance, each component counted once

Model totals

Household income totals

Poverty rates

People in poverty

Inequality

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Household net income by decile

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 20, 2026

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 19, 2026 •

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github-actions Bot commented Oct 19, 2026 •

edited

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