[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2517

Status: ready for review. At head 99d9703, the Aggregate impact check passed with no change in any figure, and the independent review approved (see "Review"). CI is finishing at that head.

Summary

carers_allowance_earnings deducted a hard-coded 0.5 of pension contributions from earnings for the Carer's Allowance earnings limit. That one-half is now gov.dwp.carers_allowance.pension_contribution_deduction_rate, cited to the law, so it can be reformed. This is the Carer's Allowance counterpart of #2516 (Council Tax Reduction and Income Support) and #2497 (Housing Benefit). JSA's literal is #140 and is left alone.

What the law says

The earnings limit counts earnings under the Social Security Benefit (Computation of Earnings) Regulations 1996 (SI 1996/2745), in force from 25 November 1996 (reg. 1):

Provision	Who	Text
reg. 10(4)(b)	employed earners	"one half of any sum paid by the claimant in respect of a pay period by way of a contribution towards an occupational or personal pension scheme"
reg. 13(1)(b)(ii), (4)(c) and (10)(b)	self-employed earners (partners and share fishermen, sole traders, child minders)	"one half of any premium paid … in respect of a retirement annuity contract or a personal pension scheme"

How the law was checked:

• Regs. 10 and 13 were read as made, as at 6 April 2015 and in their current text, from legislation.gov.uk's XML. All three say one half.
• legislation.gov.uk's changes feed for SI 1996/2745 records 110 effects. None touches reg. 10(4) or the pension limbs of reg. 13. The only effects on regs. 10 and 13 are to 10(3), 13(3), 13(6)(g), 13(8) and 13(11).
• Reg. 14 (the notional tax and contributions) doesn't mention pensions.
• SI 1996/2745 extends to England, Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland's SR 1996/520, in operation from the same date, uses the same words in regs. 10(4)(b) and 13(1)(b)(ii), (4)(c) and (10)(b). legislation.gov.uk holds only the as-made text of the NI rules.
• Scotland's Carer Support Payment, which replaces Carer's Allowance there from 2025, has its own variables and doesn't read carers_allowance_earnings.

So the parameter is 0.5 from 1996-11-25 and cites both sets of regulations. The law review found no error in the current-law value.

What changes in the model

• New parameter gov.dwp.carers_allowance.pension_contribution_deduction_rate: 0.5 from 1996-11-25.
• carers_allowance_earnings multiplies pension_contributions by that parameter instead of 0.5. Its documentation now names the parameter.

The diff to carers_allowance_earnings.py touches only the documentation sentence and the deduction lines, not the Class 4 lines #2490 rewrites, so the two shouldn't conflict.

Invariants

These hold for every input. test_carers_allowance_pension_contribution_deduction_rate_properties.py states them and tests them with Hypothesis. The test draws populations of carers in all four UK countries and in 2016, 2020, 2024, 2026 and 2030. Each carer has pay, trading profit (a loss counts as nil), and employee and personal contributions of up to 30% of earnings, so no floor binds.

1. Exactness. When the share moves from 0.5 to r, carers_allowance_earnings falls by exactly contributions × (r − 0.5).
2. Locality. The Housing Benefit share is reformed at the same time to a different value. Earnings that read HB's share would therefore fail (1).
3. Eligibility follows earnings. On both sides, a carer is gainfully employed exactly when weekly earnings exceed the limit (a fraction of a penny disregarded, reg. 5). A carer who is gainfully employed has no underlying entitlement. A lower share can only end entitlement, and a higher share can only restore it.
4. Current law. The share is 0.5 in every year from 2015 to 2030.

Invariant 3 counts pence in float32, the precision the model stores earnings in, as the formula does. An explicit Hypothesis example pins the boundary: pay of £10,608.52 is stored as 10,608.51953125, which is 20,401 weekly pence in float32 (over the limit) but 20,400 in float64.

The YAML cases (carers_allowance_pension_contribution_deduction_rate.yaml) are hand-derived for 2026-27. With pay of £12,000 (no tax or Class 1) and £3,000 of contributions, earnings are 10,500 (£201.92 a week, under the £204 limit). At a 0.25 share they are 11,250 (£216.35, over), a rise of 750, which is 3,000 × 0.25, and Carer's Allowance goes to nil. A 0.75 share brings a £2,000 contributor from 11,000 (over) to 10,500 (under) and restores the allowance. A trader at a 0.4 share rises by 770, which is 7,700 × 0.1. A reform of HB's share moves HB net earnings and leaves Carer's Allowance earnings alone. That case uses the £2,000 contributor, who is over the limit, so no Carer's Allowance is paid and no income tax is due.

Current-law outputs

The new parameter is exactly 0.5, the value of the literal it replaces, in every year the model simulates. The arithmetic is otherwise unchanged.

Re-measured by the UK hub at this head (2026-10-20): run 39383602431. It compares main 47642d1ee with main merged with 99d9703f2 on certified policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, and finds no change in any figure in any year, 2025-26 to 2031-32. No household's net income changes. The hub re-ran it because the PR-triggered report at this head compared against a stale base (7e8682590) that left out 10 main commits.

The Aggregate impact check at the first head (8991834, merged into main as f39cccb) passed. It found no change in any year from 2025-26 to 2031-32 in receipts by tax head, spending, caseloads, the government balance, household income, poverty, inequality or the standard reform costings. No household's net income changed. The second commit changes only a YAML test.

Tests

CI at the first head passed every check except one YAML case, the Housing Benefit locality case. Its carer was paid Carer's Allowance, which is taxable, so HB net earnings carried the share of income tax that HB attributes to earnings (£134.64). The expected value had left that out. The second commit moves the case to the over-limit carer, who owes no tax.

The route-a-release-2026-10 reservation (to 2026-10-21 04:00Z) allows only light local checks. So the only local run was the new YAML file, against this branch's source, in an existing venv whose uv.lock is identical to this branch's: all 6 cases pass. The Python tests, including the Hypothesis test, passed in CI at the first head. After the round-1 fix, the property test file was also run locally the same way: 2 passed.

• uvx ruff@0.17.0 format --check . passes, and so does ruff check on the changed Python files.
• Every reference URL in the new parameter resolves (HTTP 200).

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/carers_allowance_pension_contribution_deduction_rate.yaml::A lower share raises earnings by contributions times the change and ends entitlement, policyengine_uk/tests/test_carers_allowance_pension_contribution_deduction_rate_properties.py::test_earnings_fall_by_contributions_times_the_change_in_share

axiom: n/a: infrastructure — parameter wiring, current-law outputs unchanged

Review

• Round 1 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at b96ec3f): REQUEST_CHANGES, one blocking finding. The property test promoted earnings to float64 before repeating the penny rounding, so it would wrongly fail on the £10,608.52 boundary above. The review found the rest correct: the wiring, all six YAML derivations, the parameter metadata, the reproducer and axiom: lines, and the absence of a conflict with Store marginal National Insurance schedules as scales #2490. It confirmed the one-half from the Northern Ireland consolidated text and from legislation.gov.uk's indexed GB text. Direct legislation.gov.uk XML fetches failed in its sandbox.
• Response (99d9703): the rounding check keeps the stored dtype, the boundary is an explicit @example, and the exactness tolerance is 0.05, wide enough for float32 spacing (about 0.008) at the largest earnings drawn. Locally the file passes (2 passed). A copy with the float64 conversion restored fails at the boundary example.
• Round 2 (Opus 5.5, at 99d9703; every Codex lane was closed): APPROVE, with no blocking findings. It traced the boundary example by hand in float32 and in float64 and confirmed the two paths differ. It found that over_limit repeats the formula's operations in the same order and dtype under NumPy 2's promotion rules, and that 0.05 leaves more than four times the worst-case float32 error while still catching a wrong share for contributions above about £1 a year. It made two non-blocking notes: one docstring line is longer than 88 characters (E501 is ignored, so CI passes), and the tolerance could be as low as about 0.02.

Reviews: ~/reviews/uk-2518-ca-pension-share/review-r1.md and review-r2.md (local to the author's machine).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 7e86825905 against head f0732e38b5, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£10,720	-£9,842
Capital gains tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£6	-£6

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	+£10.5m	+£10.9m	+£11.2m	+£11.5m	+£11.0m	+£10.1m	+£10.3m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
Government spending	+£10.5m †	+£10.9m †	+£11.2m †	+£11.5m †	+£11.0m †	+£10.1m †	+£10.3m †
Government balance, each receipt once	-£10.5m †	-£10.9m †	-£11.2m †	-£11.5m †	-£11.0m †	-£10.1m †	-£10.3m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
household_tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
pre_budget_change_household_tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£10,726	-£9,847
gov_spending	+£10.5m †	+£10.9m †	+£11.2m †	+£11.5m †	+£11.0m †	+£10.1m †	+£10.3m †
household_benefits	+£10.5m †	+£10.9m †	+£11.2m †	+£11.5m †	+£11.0m †	+£10.1m †	+£10.3m †
gov_balance	-£10.5m †	-£10.9m †	-£11.2m †	-£11.5m †	-£11.0m †	-£10.1m †	-£10.3m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	+£10.5m †	+£10.9m †	+£11.2m †	+£11.5m †	+£11.0m †	+£10.1m †	+£10.3m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	+£10.5m	+£10.9m	+£11.2m	+£11.5m	+£11.0m	+£10.1m	+£10.3m

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.67 †	+£1.71 †	+£1.73 †	+£1.76 †	+£1.80 †	+£1.84 †	+£1.87 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	0 †	-£14 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.93 †	+£0.99 †	+£21 †	+£1.03 †	+£1.06 †	+£1.08 †	+£1.11 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.33 †	+£0.35 †	+£0.36 †	+£0.37 †	+£0.38 †	0 †	0 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.22 †	+£0.24 †	+£0.24 †	+£0.25 †	0 †	0 †	0 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	+£0	-£6	+£0	+£0	-£1	-£2,215	-£2,498
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£0	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	+£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£1	-£7	-£5	-£2	-£0	+£6,522	+£5,375
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£0	-£4	+£7	+£0	-£7	+£0	+£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£3	-£6	-£3	-£4	-£5	-£5,965	-£17,062
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£0	-£3	+£2	-£2	+£1	-£2,214	-£5,276
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£4	-£4	+£0	0	+£1	-£0	-£0
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	+£0	0	0	+£0	-£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£17	+£11	+£4	+£2	+£15	-£2,215	-£13,617
Raise the State Pension by 10%	0	0	+£0	+£0	-£0	+£0	+£0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£0	0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£0	0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	+£10,720	+£9,842
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£0	+£0	+£0	-£0	+£0	+£5,966	+£17,062
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	-£0	0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£0	+£0	+£3	-£0	-£0	+£2,223	+£13,616

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 3	0	0	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0	0
Decile 4	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0
Decile 6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 7	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0
Decile 8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.1%	0.0%
2026-27	0.1%	0.0%
2027-28	0.1%	0.0%
2028-29	0.1%	0.0%
2029-30	0.1%	0.0%
2030-31	0.0%	0.0%
2031-32	0.0%	0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population; poverty rates; people in poverty.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
• incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
• maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 7e86825905	uk 2.139.3 (files 0a4ca8216e30), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	df10e7457561	0d0426ee9e38	913.13s
head	#2518 merged into main f0732e38b5	uk 2.139.4 (files 913cc74b4333), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	f76faf9d83f5	0d0426ee9e38	936.13s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£318.98bn	£336.45bn	£351.55bn	£367.04bn	£385.12bn	£403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.51bn	£62.45bn	£64.90bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£175.57bn	£181.08bn	£188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.06bn	£7.04bn	£7.11bn	£7.23bn	£7.37bn	£7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£79.18bn	£83.51bn	£85.33bn	£87.10bn	£88.03bn	£89.46bn	£90.81bn
Housing Benefit	£8.60bn	£8.93bn	£9.20bn	£9.34bn	£9.62bn	£9.88bn	£10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.24bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,372k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,253k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,213k	3,226k	3,247k	3,263k	3,282k	3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.39bn	£939.21bn	£976.17bn	£1,009.31bn	£1,044.89bn	£1,081.66bn	£1,122.50bn
Government spending	£537.01bn †	£551.38bn †	£557.72bn †	£564.80bn †	£573.37bn †	£582.63bn †	£591.81bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.38bn †	£387.84bn †	£418.45bn †	£444.52bn †	£471.52bn †	£499.03bn †	£530.70bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.52bn	£942.34bn	£979.30bn	£1,012.44bn	£1,048.02bn	£1,084.79bn	£1,125.63bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.63bn	£548.43bn	£570.57bn	£592.62bn	£617.00bn	£643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.51bn	£540.08bn	£561.53bn	£583.34bn	£607.46bn	£633.81bn
gov_spending	£537.01bn †	£551.38bn †	£557.72bn †	£564.80bn †	£573.37bn †	£582.63bn †	£591.81bn †
household_benefits	£537.01bn †	£551.38bn †	£557.72bn †	£564.80bn †	£573.37bn †	£582.63bn †	£591.81bn †
gov_balance	£365.51bn †	£390.97bn †	£421.58bn †	£447.65bn †	£474.65bn †	£502.16bn †	£533.83bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,887.41bn	£1,945.59bn	£2,017.37bn
Household net income	£1,658.63bn †	£1,707.23bn †	£1,739.08bn †	£1,773.28bn †	£1,809.55bn †	£1,851.28bn †	£1,903.03bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,467.19bn	£1,514.01bn	£1,546.28bn	£1,579.34bn	£1,613.54bn	£1,652.68bn	£1,703.13bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	20.9%	20.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.4%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.8%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.2%	31.6%	31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.4%	19.2%	20.0%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.2%	12.0%	12.2%	12.2%	12.3%	12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.8%	16.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.7%	23.5%	23.3%	23.2%	23.4%	23.4%	23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	15.1%	15.1%	15.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.4%	14.4%	14.3%	14.4%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.1%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.6%	31.3%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.4%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.3%	12.7%	12.6%	12.7%	12.3%	12.2%	12.3%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,945k	11,077k	11,207k	11,216k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,297k	3,334k	3,333k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,236k	6,314k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,528k	1,543k	1,559k	1,564k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,536k	14,210k	14,688k	14,928k	15,145k	15,383k	15,517k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,765k	4,513k	4,641k	4,697k	4,753k	4,833k	4,894k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,275k	8,251k	8,665k	8,841k	8,991k	9,139k	9,200k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,496k	1,445k	1,382k	1,389k	1,401k	1,411k	1,423k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,802k	11,456k	11,551k	11,643k	11,816k	11,906k	12,060k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,861k	3,538k	3,519k	3,528k	3,562k	3,588k	3,642k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,174k	6,160k	6,380k	6,474k	6,617k	6,667k	6,738k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,767k	1,758k	1,652k	1,641k	1,637k	1,651k	1,680k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,916k	14,717k	14,897k	15,061k	15,215k	15,345k	15,518k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,886k	4,714k	4,695k	4,721k	4,789k	4,814k	4,894k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,440k	8,497k	8,756k	8,890k	9,018k	9,123k	9,201k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,589k	1,506k	1,446k	1,451k	1,408k	1,408k	1,423k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3073	0.3051	0.3064	0.3071	0.3077	0.3083	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£18,017 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,365 †	£29,041 †	£28,680 †	£29,002 †	£29,377 †	£29,782 †	£30,332 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,596 †	£35,848 †	£36,505 †	£37,012 †	£37,297 †	£37,922 †	£38,685 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,339 †	£40,991 †	£41,918 †	£42,631 †	£43,195 †	£43,845 †	£44,944 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,701 †	£46,052 †	£46,904 †	£47,705 †	£48,370 †	£49,300 †	£49,917 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,192 †	£49,438 †	£50,386 †	£51,100 †	£52,216 †	£53,033 †	£54,501 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,419 †	£57,611 †	£58,534 †	£59,400 †	£60,207 †	£61,610 †	£62,913 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,236 †	£70,442 †	£71,639 †	£72,963 †	£74,327 †	£75,759 †	£77,549 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,664 †	£82,010 †	£83,240 †	£84,464 †	£86,139 †	£87,751 †	£89,960 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,679 †	£120,546 †	£122,461 †	£124,622 †	£126,982 †	£129,693 †	£132,891 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.25bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.93bn	£-9.14bn	£-9.04bn	£-9.09bn	£-9.29bn	£-9.54bn	£-9.81bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.54bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.77bn	£13.12bn	£13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	£3.89bn	£4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (from session local_4a81f29b-42f5-46fb-b59d-3dfbef32d322)

• Head: 99d9703f23569fce3b687990e560a5bf2669691b. Ready for review, MERGEABLE, merge state CLEAN.
• CI at this head: all 15 checks pass, including Test / Result, Lint, Fix evidence and Aggregate impact. The Aggregate impact check found no change in any figure, 2025-26 to 2031-32.
• Independent review:
  • Round 1, GPT-6.1 Sol at b96ec3f: REQUEST_CHANGES, one test finding (float64 pence rounding against the model's float32). Fixed in 99d9703.
  • Round 2, Opus 5.5 at 99d9703, run because every Codex lane was closed: APPROVE, with no blocking findings. Its two non-blocking notes: a long docstring line, and that the tolerance could be tighter.
  • Both are in ~/reviews/uk-2518-ca-pension-share/review-r1.md and review-r2.md.
• What's left: merge order and the merge-queue enqueue only. Nothing is pending from me, and there's no hold or decision id.
• Release note for the hub: this carries a fixed fragment, so it cuts a pe-uk patch release. That lands in the Budget certification window if merged Tue–Thu (notice 43). Current-law outputs are unchanged.
• Depends on: nothing. Give Council Tax Reduction and Income Support their own pension contribution shares #2516 (CTR and IS) and Store marginal National Insurance schedules as scales #2490 (NI scales) touch nearby code but don't conflict. Store marginal National Insurance schedules as scales #2490 edits only the Class 4 lines of carers_allowance_earnings.py.
• Follow-up, not in this PR: test_carers_allowance_earnings_limit_properties.py::test_bounds_and_differential on main has the same float64 rounding flaw. It is proposed as a separate session.

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, from the owner session's hand-off (local_4a81f29b). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head 99d9703f23569fce3b687990e560a5bf2669691b.

• Review: GPT-6.1 Sol round 1 asked for changes at b96ec3f (a float64 test rounding issue). Opus 5.5 round 2 approved at 99d9703, with Codex lanes closed. Both are in ~/reviews/uk-2518-ca-pension-share/.
• Impact: none. The hub's clean re-measurement at this head, run 39383602431, compared main 47642d1ee with main merged with this head and found no change in any figure in any year. The PR-triggered report had a stale base (notice 49).
• Checks: all 15 passed at the head, and the merge queue re-tested against current main.

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