Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2557 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T05:01:29Z

Summary

Most benefits rise each April by the previous September's CPI, the measure every Social Security Administration Act 1992 s150 review uses. gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, which about 80 benefit rate parameters name as their uprating, followed the previous calendar year's CPI instead. It now follows gov.economic_assumptions.indices.september_cpi_uprating, the series #2180 added. This PR also enters September 2026 CPI, 3.5% (ONS D7G7, release of 21 October 2026), which sets the April 2027 rise. So CPI-linked benefits rise 3.5% in April 2027, not 2.3%.

Law and practice

s150(1) requires an annual review of benefit rates "in relation to the general level of prices obtaining in Great Britain estimated in such manner as the Secretary of State thinks fit". s150(2)(a) requires the s150(3) sums (Carer's Allowance, Attendance Allowance, DLA and others) to rise by at least the price rise; s150(2)(b) and (7) let the other sums (UC, income-related benefits) rise too.
The measure is September CPI. All 16 Up-rating Order Explanatory Memoranda from April 2011 to April 2026 measure prices by CPI over the 12 months to September. For example, SI 2026/148 EM paras 6.4-6.5: "has decided to use the increase in the Consumer Prices Index ("CPI") in the year to September 2025", giving 3.8% (written statement HCWS1101).
Universal Credit Act 2025 s1(3) and s4 define the "relevant CPI percentage" as September CPI. The UC standard allowance index (Apply the Universal Credit Act 2025 standard allowance uplifts to 2029-30 #2242) and the health element index (Freeze the UC LCWRA element for 2026-27 to 2029-30 (UC Act 2025 s. 3) #2284) are built from gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, so they now follow September CPI as the Act requires.

What changes

gov.benefit_uprating_cpi follows indices.september_cpi_uprating: April Y rises by September Y-1 CPI, rounded to 0.1pp, and by nothing when prices fall. The YAML references s150, HCWS1101 and the SI 2026/148 EM.
statutory_uprating_inputs.cpi_september: 2026 = 0.035 (ONS 21 October 2026); the null moves to 2027. The triple-lock project cancelled the duplicate tl2027-inputs job; this is the September 2026 CPI entry of record. May–July 2026 earnings remain 3.9%, confirmed unrevised by ONS KAC3 in the 20 October 2026 release. The triple lock is unchanged for April 2027: earnings at 3.9% exceed CPI at 3.5%.
Amounts not raised by September CPI in practice that sat on gov.benefit_uprating_cpi keep exactly their previous projection (indices.obr.lagged_cpi), each with a YAML comment giving the evidence. Modelling their own bases is follow-up work:
- the Pension Credit standard minimum guarantee (s150A, earnings);
- the savings credit threshold (+4.9% in April 2026, against 3.8% CPI);
- the Housing Benefit pension-age allowances (aged, +4.75% in April 2026; aged_from_cutoff, equal to the guarantee in every year 2021-2026);
- Housing Benefit non-dependant deduction income bands (earnings-linked in practice; each threshold retains lagged CPI while deduction amounts use September CPI);
- DfE early years funding rates;
- the council tax high value surcharge.
  The savings credit threshold and HB pension-age allowances are inside the s150 review (s150(1)(l) and (h)); their increases in practice are linked to earnings rather than September CPI.
IIDB moves from same-year calendar CPI to gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, since it is an Up-rating Order amount.
Propagate the benefit index to both UC childcare cap leaves: April 2027 becomes £1,108.58 (one child) and £1,900.42 (two or more), rather than remaining at their 2026 anchors. A new invariant checks every node with uprating metadata for missing leaf uprating.
Fix the DfE projection test to use the retained lagged CPI factor, and update the stale April 2027 docstring and the ONS earnings citation.

April 2027 rates

Rate	April 2026	April 2027, main	April 2027, this PR	Rise (this PR)
Carer's Allowance (week)	86.45	88.44	89.48	3.50%
Attendance Allowance, higher (week)	114.60	117.24	118.61	3.50%
PIP daily living, enhanced (week)	114.60	117.24	118.61	3.50%
DLA care, highest (week)	114.60	117.24	118.61	3.50%
Child Benefit, eldest (week)	27.05	27.67	28.00	3.50%
UC standard allowance, single 25+ (month)	424.90	438.07	443.21	4.31%
UC child element (month)	303.94	310.93	314.58	3.50%
UC carer element (month)	209.34	214.15	216.67	3.50%
UC LCWRA, new claimants (month)	217.26	217.26	217.26	0.00%
UC childcare cap, one child (month)	1,071.09	1,071.09	1,108.58	3.50%
UC childcare cap, two or more (month)	1,836.16	1,836.16	1,900.42	3.50%
PC standard minimum guarantee, single (week)	238.00	243.47	243.47	2.30%
IIDB, 100% (week)	233.90	238.58	242.09	3.50%

Aggregate impact

The Aggregate impact report, workflow and full report, compares base 9d81a5dfa8 with merged head 28632cd8c9 on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91). Quoting its 2027-28 column:

Measure	Change
Universal Credit	+£868.9m
Pension Credit	+£23.2m
State Pension	+£189.7m
Government spending	+£1.88bn †
Income tax	+£66.4m
Government balance, each receipt once	-£1.82bn †
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.44pp

The report records zero changes in 2025-26 and 2026-27, and “0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed”. † Totals exclude suppressed small cells as explained in the report. These figures precede the hub fixes: the cap propagation and the HB threshold override need the new head's Aggregate impact report before landing. No local aggregate simulation was run for this fix job.

Invariants and tests

test_september_cpi_uprating_properties.py (Hypothesis):
- April Y's rise = max(round₀.₁pp(September Y-1 CPI), 0), non-decreasing in CPI;
- the index starts at 1 in 2010, compounds the rises, agrees with an independent Decimal compounding, never falls, and moves only from the April after a changed September.
test_september_cpi_uprating.py:
- every April's rise equals the previous September's CPI (2011-2027, 3.5% for April 2027);
- every parameter on gov.benefit_uprating_cpi rises by exactly that rise after its last published (raw YAML) value;
- node-level uprating reaches every leaf (apart from the exact older wealth omission documented below), and both UC childcare caps match their April 2027 projections;
- HB income-band leaves retain lagged CPI while deduction amounts use September CPI;
- the triple lock reads the same rounded September figure;
- scenarios on September CPI or calendar CPI move benefit rates, and falling prices hold them;
- the repointed amounts keep their lagged calendar CPI projection;
- no parameter combines start_instant with a later value;
- the UC standard allowance follows September CPI and the Act's uplift.
test_benefit_uprating_published.py (differential against DWP's own upratings):
- for 22 CPI-linked series (Carer's Allowance, Attendance Allowance, DLA, PIP, SDA, CAA, the legacy premiums, PC carer and severe disability additions), every published April rate from 2011 or 2014 to 2026 equals the previous rate × (1 + the model's September CPI rise), rounded to the nearest 5p;
- IIDB rounds to 10p; CAA rates are 2×/3×/4× the part-time rate;
- the working-age personal allowances show the 1% years (WBUA 2013) and the freeze (WRWA 2016);
- rates are from the DWP "Benefit and pension rates" documents 2014-15 to 2026-27 and the 2010-2013 Up-rating Orders, with every source URL in published_benefit_rates.py;
- Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925's fixture agrees with these series on all 367 overlapping values.
test_triple_lock_statutory_inputs.py is updated for September 2026 now being published: 2027 is the first forecast year.

The earlier claim that the local run covered every reader was incorrect: it missed the DfE test identified in B1. This fix job selects every Python test file returned by git grep -l -e cpi_september -e benefit_uprating_cpi -e lagged_cpi -- policyengine_uk/tests (16 files), plus the published benefit-rate and related triple-lock tests.

Full uvx ruff format --check .: pass, 1920 files already formatted (workspace-local UV directories; cache disabled after cached runs stalled).
Full ruff check --no-cache .: pass.
git diff --check: pass.
Local pytest is blocked, not passed. uptime and disk were checked before any install or test. The actual Data volume free space stayed below the required 60 GB throughout this job (about 55 GB initially, about 42 GB at hand-off), and Fleet ops declared disk pause Add reported but unmodelled benefits #14 at 11:34Z. No venv installation, pytest suite, YAML suite or local microsimulation was started. The proposed cleanup is awaiting its own review, so validation needs resuming after the explicit lift.
The full file list is recorded in .job/pytest-files.txt (all 16 grep matches plus three related modules). Resume with python3 .job/run-validation.py --install, then python3 .job/run-validation.py: frozen worktree venv, pytest -n 2 --dist worksteal -p no:cacheprovider, BLAS/OpenMP=2, foreground only, gated on load1 ≤110, free ≥60 GB and the Fleet ops pause lift.
Independent delta review, green CI and the refreshed Aggregate impact report remain required before merge.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_childcare_funding_rates.py::test_existing_cpi_projection_starts_from_the_2026_funding_anchor, policyengine_uk/tests/test_september_cpi_uprating.py::test_node_uprating_reaches_every_leaf, policyengine_uk/tests/test_september_cpi_uprating.py::test_uc_childcare_caps_rise_by_september_cpi_in_april_2027

Axiom

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#367 queued (SSAA 1992 s150 with WBUA 2013 s1, WRWA 2016 s11 and UC Act 2025 ss1-4).

Follow-ups from the hub review

F1 — earnings-linked Pension Credit/HB: implement the s150A(2) earnings floor for the standard minimum guarantee (April 2027 currently +2.3%, below 3.9%), the HB pension-age allowances that track it, and the savings credit threshold derived from SMG minus the CPI-uprated maximum / 60%. Include HB non-dependant income bands in the earnings-basis work; lagged CPI is only their retained placeholder here.
F2 — Scottish benefits: align Scottish Child Payment, PAWHP and Scottish Carer Supplement with September CPI practice, replacing SCP forecast anchors once Ministers set 2027-28 rates.
F3 — ESA(IR)/JSA(C): add missing uprating to ESA(IR) personal allowances (UC Act 2025 s5) and contribution-based JSA amounts. These parameters are not currently read by formulas.
F4 — rounding: projected benefit rates remain unrounded; implement benefit-specific DWP rounding separately. Displayed two-decimal rates above are projections rather than published DWP rates.
Wealth metadata: household.wealth.national_balance_sheet.household has an older propagation omission, not an intentional freeze: GDP-per-capita metadata does not reach financial_net_worth, used by the corporate-incidence fallback. Preserve that unrelated behavior here with one exact node/leaf exception in the new invariant; repair and measure it separately.
Model the DfE funding rates and council tax surcharge on their own bases.
🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Most benefits rise each April under the Social Security Administration Act 1992 s150 review, which measures prices by the CPI 12-month rate for the previous September (every Up-rating Order EM since April 2011; SI 2026/148 EM paras 6.4-6.5; HCWS1101). gov.benefit_uprating_cpi followed calendar-year CPI instead; it now follows gov.economic_assumptions.indices.september_cpi_uprating. The UC standard allowance and health element indices, built from it, follow September CPI as the Universal Credit Act 2025 requires. September 2026 CPI is 3.5% (ONS D7G7, 21 October 2026), so CPI-linked benefits rise 3.5% in April 2027 rather than 2.3%. Amounts outside the s150 prices review that were on the index keep their lagged calendar-year CPI projection, with the evidence in each file: the PC standard minimum guarantee (s150A) and savings credit threshold, the HB pension-age allowances, DfE funding rates and the council tax high value surcharge. IIDB moves from same-year CPI to the benefit index. Tests: property tests of the rate and index; every parameter on the index rises by September CPI after its last published value; a differential test that 22 CPI-linked series' published April rates from 2011 are the previous rate times the model's September CPI rise, rounded to 5p; triple lock tests updated for September 2026 being published; one HB test made explicit that its claimant does not claim UC (by 2030 a little UC would passport them). Fixes #2533. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T05:02:17Z

Hand-off to the UK hub (session "September CPI benefit uprating", local_7d5c5e19-c54e-4c40-bea7-e72243a825d0).

Head: d8aae1b129ad8f1b475a88cd75b54258bf32389e, one commit on origin/main 582b863. The branch's 9/30 history (three commits) was rebuilt from main, because Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925, Index the income tax and NICs thresholds by September CPI after the 2030-31 freeze #2180, Apply the Universal Credit Act 2025 standard allowance uplifts to 2029-30 #2242 and Freeze the UC LCWRA element for 2026-27 to 2029-30 (UC Act 2025 s. 3) #2284 had since landed most of it. It had no PR, so the force-push lost nothing.
Review: none yet at this head. The hub runs the Sol review. Earlier Opus and Sol reviews of the larger 9/30 branch are in ~/reviews/benefit-uprating-sep-cpi-2026-09-29/out/review-final.md and review-round2.md. Their open findings concern code that main has since replaced (tax-threshold rounding in Index the income tax and NICs thresholds by September CPI after the 2030-31 freeze #2180, the UC uplift lever in Apply the Universal Credit Act 2025 standard allowance uplifts to 2029-30 #2242) or stale 9/30 microsim tables, not anything in this diff.
Passed locally: YAML policy suite 4117/4117 (heavy_run, v2/logs/yaml.log); targeted pytest 1871 passed, with the three September 2026 triple-lock expectations then updated (21/21) (v2/logs/targeted.log).
Pending: CI, including the Aggregate impact check. Please add its numbers to the PR body if the bot doesn't.
Coordination: this PR enters September 2026 CPI = 3.5% (ONS D7G7, 21 Oct 2026). The scheduled Subfleet job 20261021-083504-tl2027-inputs (still waiting for capacity) planned the same entry, so it only needs May-July earnings now, or it should rebase onto this.
No Max decision needed: this corrects the model to the law and DWP practice it cites (Max 2026-10-02 rule).
Follow-ups owed, for the hub to route:
- PC standard minimum guarantee by earnings (s150A), with the HB pension-age allowances that track it;
- the real bases of the savings credit threshold, DfE rates and the council tax surcharge (all kept on lagged CPI here);
- UC Act 2025 s5 for income-related ESA.
Axiom: rulespec-uk#367 queued.

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T05:08:01Z

UK hub note for the landing round (from the UK triple-lock project, 22 Oct): the cancelled scheduled job tl2027-inputs makes this PR the September 2026 CPI entry of record. ONS checked on 22 Oct: D7G7 September 2026 = 3.5% (released 20 Oct 23:00Z); KAC3 May–July 2026 = 3.9%, unrevised in the 20 October release. Two small asks: (1) re-cite awe_total_pay_may_july.yaml's comment to the 20 October release (no number change); (2) make sure the tests pin April 2027's triple lock at max(3.5%, 3.9%, 2.5%) = 3.9%, set by earnings. The hub's independent review is running at d8aae1b.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

github-actions · 2026-10-22T05:53:34Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 45c0431a2f against head 52e6c6a565, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 220 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Universal Credit	2031-32	£87.92bn	£88.91bn	+£993.6m
Universal Credit	2030-31	£86.64bn	£87.61bn	+£970.7m
Universal Credit	2029-30	£85.26bn	£86.21bn	+£946.3m
Universal Credit	2028-29	£84.28bn	£85.21bn	+£930.4m
Universal Credit	2027-28	£82.55bn	£83.40bn	+£851.8m
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£54,419	£54,880	+£461
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2031-32	33.2%	32.3%	-0.82pp
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£44,060	£44,408	+£348
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£62,999	£62,507	-£491
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2030-31	32.9%	32.2%	-0.69pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2029-30	32.4%	31.7%	-0.65pp
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£45,880	£46,129	+£249
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£43,314	£43,545	+£230
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2031-32	5,098k	4,973k	-125.6k
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£48,575	£48,812	+£236
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£46,596	£46,814	+£218
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£29,462	£29,596	+£133
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2027-28	31.6%	31.2%	-0.45pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2028-29	31.8%	31.3%	-0.44pp
Government balance, each receipt once	2028-29	£448.18bn	£446.22bn	-£1.96bn
gov_balance	2028-29	£448.18bn	£446.22bn	-£1.96bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2027-28	£421.99bn	£420.19bn	-£1.80bn
gov_balance	2027-28	£421.99bn	£420.19bn	-£1.80bn
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2027-28	22.0%	21.6%	-0.43pp
Government balance, each receipt once	2029-30	£475.86bn	£473.87bn	-£1.99bn
gov_balance	2029-30	£475.86bn	£473.87bn	-£1.99bn
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2030-31	5,035k	4,930k	-105.0k
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£47,631	£47,828	+£198
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2031-32	32.1%	31.7%	-0.41pp
Personal Independence Payment	2031-32	£31.87bn	£32.28bn	+£405.8m
Government balance, each receipt once	2030-31	£503.61bn	£501.58bn	-£2.03bn
gov_balance	2030-31	£503.61bn	£501.58bn	-£2.03bn
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2029-30	4,933k	4,834k	-99.2k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	1,660k	1,627k	-33.1k
Personal Independence Payment	2030-31	£31.11bn	£31.51bn	+£396.0m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£36,672	£36,815	+£144
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2027-28	3,332k	3,267k	-64.5k
Personal Independence Payment	2029-30	£30.37bn	£30.75bn	+£386.5m
Government balance, each receipt once	2031-32	£535.36bn	£533.30bn	-£2.06bn
gov_balance	2031-32	£535.36bn	£533.30bn	-£2.06bn

180 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	+£66.4m	+£70.8m	+£70.4m	+£70.9m	+£71.4m
Capital gains tax	+£45,258	+£44,844	+£46,012	+£45,611	+£39,382
TV licence fee	+£77,763	+£76,738	-£60,143	+£39,503	+£98,504

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	0	0	+£189.7m	+£181.8m	+£170.9m	+£162.2m	+£145.8m
Pension Credit	0	0	+£23.2m	+£26.8m	+£28.1m	+£29.3m	+£30.6m
Winter Fuel Payment	0	0	-£0.5m	-£1.5m	-£3,960	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
Universal Credit	0	0	+£851.8m	+£930.4m	+£946.3m	+£970.7m	+£993.6m
Housing Benefit	0	0	-£2.9m	-£2.9m	-£1.1m	-£1.0m	-£0.8m
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	-£0.6m	-£0.6m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.4m
Personal Independence Payment	0	0	+£339.5m	+£377.2m	+£386.5m	+£396.0m	+£405.8m
Disability Living Allowance	0	0	+£94.4m	+£104.8m	+£107.4m	+£110.1m	+£112.8m
Attendance Allowance	0	0	+£109.4m	+£121.5m	+£124.5m	+£127.5m	+£130.7m
Carer's Allowance	0	0	+£56.4m	+£62.7m	+£64.3m	+£65.8m	+£67.4m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	0	0	+£3.9m	+£4.3m	+£4.4m	+£4.5m	+£4.6m
Severe Disablement Allowance	0	0	+£0.3m	+£0.4m	+£0.4m	+£0.4m	+£0.4m
Child Benefit	0	0	+£203.2m	+£225.7m	+£231.2m	+£236.8m	+£242.5m
Scottish Child Payment	0	0	0	+£3.9m	0	0	0
Tax-Free Childcare	0	0	-£60,768	-£2,043	-£0.6m	0	-£0.7m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	0	0	-298	-426	+334	-594	-531
Winter Fuel Payment	0	0	-1.7k	-5.2k	0	-2.1k	-6.1k
Universal Credit	0	0	+2.2k	+6.4k	+3.5k	+8.2k	+5.4k
Housing Benefit	0	0	-245	-246	0	0	+16
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	+1.4k	-7	-577	+63	0
Scottish Child Payment	0	0	0	+2.6k	0	0	0
Tax-Free Childcare	0	0	-545	-12	-484	0	-1.2k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	0	+£66.5m	+£70.9m	+£70.4m	+£71.0m	+£71.6m
Government spending	0 †	0 †	+£1.87bn †	+£2.03bn †	+£2.06bn †	+£2.10bn †	+£2.13bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	0 †	0 †	-£1.80bn †	-£1.96bn †	-£1.99bn †	-£2.03bn †	-£2.06bn †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	0	+£66.5m	+£70.9m	+£70.4m	+£71.0m	+£71.6m
household_tax	0	0	+£66.5m	+£70.9m	+£70.4m	+£71.0m	+£71.6m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	0	0	+£66.5m	+£70.9m	+£70.4m	+£71.0m	+£71.6m
gov_spending	0 †	0 †	+£1.87bn †	+£2.03bn †	+£2.06bn †	+£2.10bn †	+£2.13bn †
household_benefits	0 †	0 †	+£1.87bn †	+£2.03bn †	+£2.06bn †	+£2.10bn †	+£2.13bn †
gov_balance	0 †	0 †	-£1.80bn †	-£1.96bn †	-£1.99bn †	-£2.03bn †	-£2.06bn †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	0 †	0 †	+£1.80bn †	+£1.96bn †	+£1.99bn †	+£2.03bn †	+£2.06bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	0	0	+£1.80bn	+£1.96bn	+£1.99bn	+£2.03bn	+£2.06bn

Poverty rates

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.17pp	-0.10pp	-0.15pp	-0.14pp	-0.14pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.43pp	-0.27pp	-0.34pp	-0.24pp	-0.29pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.10pp	-0.06pp	-0.11pp	-0.13pp	-0.12pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.07pp	-0.02pp	-0.07pp	-0.06pp	-0.03pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.18pp	-0.19pp	-0.25pp	-0.25pp	-0.29pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.45pp	-0.44pp	-0.65pp	-0.69pp	-0.82pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.12pp	-0.14pp	-0.15pp	-0.16pp	-0.18pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.04pp	-0.07pp	-0.12pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.16pp	-0.08pp	-0.06pp	-0.07pp	-0.08pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.23pp	-0.20pp	-0.27pp	-0.29pp	-0.15pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.10pp	-0.05pp	-0.03pp	-0.04pp	-0.05pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.29pp	-0.04pp	+0.10pp	+0.07pp	-0.13pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.09pp	-0.12pp	-0.11pp	-0.15pp	-0.09pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.35pp	-0.36pp	-0.29pp	-0.33pp	-0.41pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.04pp	-0.07pp	-0.08pp	-0.13pp	-0.06pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.02pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.03pp	+0.22pp

People in poverty

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-116.7k	-70.2k	-106.4k	-101.1k	-101.6k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-64.5k	-40.4k	-51.2k	-36.5k	-45.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-44.1k	-27.0k	-47.6k	-57.8k	-52.9k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-8.2k	-2.8k	-7.6k	-6.7k	-3.5k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-124.4k	-133.9k	-178.6k	-177.3k	-206.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-67.6k	-66.5k	-99.2k	-105.0k	-125.6k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-52.4k	-59.1k	-65.9k	-70.8k	-79.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-4.4k	-8.3k	-13.5k	-1.5k	-955
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-110.9k	-57.8k	-44.1k	-52.7k	-57.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-35.3k	-30.7k	-40.4k	-44.2k	-22.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-42.5k	-23.0k	-14.8k	-16.2k	-20.0k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-33.1k	-4.1k	+11.1k	+7.6k	-14.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-66.2k	-85.9k	-81.2k	-109.5k	-62.7k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-53.1k	-53.9k	-43.7k	-51.1k	-63.1k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-15.3k	-31.4k	-36.0k	-55.4k	-25.4k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+2.2k	-602	-1.5k	-2.9k	+25.8k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0	0	-0.0006	-0.0007	-0.0007	-0.0007	-0.0007

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£49 †	+£22 †	+£31 †	+£38 †	+£20 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£82 †	+£79 †	+£133 †	-£52 †	+£34 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£32 †	+£144 †	+£104 †	+£141 †	+£133 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£68 †	+£65 †	+£230 †	+£348 †	+£123 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£249 †	+£218 †	+£198 †	+£236 †	+£152 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£26 †	-£107 †	-£18 †	-£55 †	+£461 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£53 †	+£54 †	+£101 †	-£63 †	-£491 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	+£4.62 †	+£175 †	-£50 †	+£86 †	+£50 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£29 †	-£47 †	+£47 †	+£1.42 †	-£55 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.70 †	-£22 †	-£45 †	+£13 †	+£97 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£3.2m	-£3.5m	+£0.8m	+£1.9m	-£6.6m
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	-£0.5m	+£0.6m	-£64,467
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£1.3m	-£3.0m	-£0.5m	-£0.3m	+£0.1m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	+£56.5m	+£61.0m	+£63.7m	+£63.4m	+£63.0m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£93.1m	-£106.8m	-£118.2m	-£125.9m	-£136.4m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£65,459	-£0.2m	+£17.7m	+£17.9m	-£3.7m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£600	+£103	+£466	-£60	-£516
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£22,742	+£23,419	+£23,471	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£36.2m	-£35.4m	-£21.6m	-£20.9m	-£48.4m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	-£0.6m	-£2.2m	+£2.9m	+£0.8m	-£0.8m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	+£1.6m	+£1.6m	+£1.5m	+£1.5m	+£1.3m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£0.2m	+£0.2m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	-£0.6m	-£1.6m	-£0.9m	-£0.4m	-£0.2m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	-£65.0m	-£72.2m	-£74.0m	-£75.8m	-£77.6m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£93.1m	+£110.7m	+£117.6m	+£125.9m	+£135.8m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	+£22,586	+£23,490	+£23,891	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£37.2m	+£40.3m	+£41.7m	+£42.1m	+£47.8m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	-£135	-£94	+£68	+£9	+£102

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	+£42 (+0.2%)	+£45 (+0.2%)	+£46 (+0.2%)	+£45 (+0.2%)	+£45 (+0.2%)
Decile 2	+£79 (+0.3%)	+£87 (+0.3%)	+£85 (+0.3%)	+£88 (+0.3%)	+£89 (+0.3%)
Decile 3	+£98 (+0.3%)	+£104 (+0.3%)	+£104 (+0.3%)	+£101 (+0.3%)	+£106 (+0.3%)
Decile 4	+£88 (+0.2%)	+£98 (+0.2%)	+£99 (+0.2%)	+£103 (+0.2%)	+£103 (+0.2%)
Decile 5	+£81 (+0.2%)	+£87 (+0.2%)	+£88 (+0.2%)	+£90 (+0.2%)	+£91 (+0.2%)
Decile 6	+£69 (+0.1%)	+£76 (+0.1%)	+£77 (+0.1%)	+£79 (+0.1%)	+£79 (+0.1%)
Decile 7	+£53 (+0.1%)	+£58 (+0.1%)	+£62 (+0.1%)	+£63 (+0.1%)	+£64 (+0.1%)
Decile 8	+£38 (+0.1%)	+£42 (+0.1%)	+£41 (+0.1%)	+£43 (+0.1%)	+£42 (+0.1%)
Decile 9	+£17 (+0.0%)	+£18 (+0.0%)	+£19 (+0.0%)	+£19 (+0.0%)	+£19 (+0.0%)
Decile 10	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£13 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)
all	+£57 (+0.1%)	+£62 (+0.1%)	+£63 (+0.1%)	+£64 (+0.1%)	+£64 (+0.1%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.0%
2026-27	0.0%	0.0%
2027-28	57.6%	0.6%
2028-29	56.7%	0.7%
2029-30	56.3%	0.7%
2030-31	55.8%	0.8%
2031-32	54.6%	0.9%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `45c0431a2f`	uk 2.147.1 (files `fea7e0416e53`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`fee2a9c613b0`	`d4c1e9f08160`	1517.79s
head	#2557 merged into main `52e6c6a565`	uk 2.147.1 (files `58500dd04758`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`fee2a9c613b0`	`d4c1e9f08160`	1503.84s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.54bn	£351.69bn	£367.24bn	£385.36bn	£403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.93bn	£7.42bn	£7.85bn	£8.26bn	£8.68bn	£9.09bn	£9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.76bn	£129.65bn	£133.46bn	£137.40bn	£141.47bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.09bn	£7.16bn	£7.28bn	£7.42bn	£7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£83.40bn	£85.21bn	£86.21bn	£87.61bn	£88.91bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£29.28bn	£30.02bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.14bn	£8.34bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.97bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.43bn	£9.67bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.40bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.87bn	£4.99bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.53bn	£17.96bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,456k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,599k	6,512k	6,493k	6,379k	6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,404k	6,419k	6,390k	6,387k	6,368k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,239k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,226k	3,245k	3,264k	3,281k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	359k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,039k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.25bn	£1,009.45bn	£1,045.73bn	£1,082.67bn	£1,123.55bn
Government spending	£532.97bn †	£548.09bn †	£556.06bn †	£563.24bn †	£571.86bn †	£581.09bn †	£590.25bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£366.41bn †	£391.15bn †	£420.19bn †	£446.22bn †	£473.87bn †	£501.58bn †	£533.30bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.25bn	£1,009.45bn	£1,045.73bn	£1,082.67bn	£1,123.55bn
household_tax	£493.03bn	£519.53bn	£545.39bn	£567.58bn	£589.79bn	£614.24bn	£640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£485.21bn	£511.41bn	£537.04bn	£558.54bn	£580.51bn	£604.69bn	£631.05bn
gov_spending	£532.97bn †	£548.09bn †	£556.06bn †	£563.24bn †	£571.86bn †	£581.09bn †	£590.25bn †
household_benefits	£532.97bn †	£548.09bn †	£556.06bn †	£563.24bn †	£571.86bn †	£581.09bn †	£590.25bn †
gov_balance	£366.41bn †	£391.15bn †	£420.19bn †	£446.22bn †	£473.87bn †	£501.58bn †	£533.30bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,657.72bn †	£1,707.05bn †	£1,740.47bn †	£1,774.71bn †	£1,810.87bn †	£1,852.51bn †	£1,904.23bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,463.15bn	£1,510.70bn	£1,544.54bn	£1,577.63bn	£1,611.73bn	£1,650.77bn	£1,701.20bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.2%	15.5%	15.7%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.6%	21.8%	22.0%	21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.2%	13.5%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	20.8%	21.4%	21.6%	21.9%	22.2%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.2%	31.3%	31.7%	32.2%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.3%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.0%	13.3%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.4%	23.4%	22.9%	23.0%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.2%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.1%	31.0%	31.0%	31.1%	31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.2%	12.2%	13.1%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,270k	10,578k	10,858k	11,007k	11,103k	11,238k	11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,696k	3,227k	3,267k	3,285k	3,319k	3,371k	3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,940k	5,792k	6,071k	6,182k	6,234k	6,302k	6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,519k	1,540k	1,550k	1,566k	1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,972k	14,539k	14,956k	15,179k	15,479k	15,741k	15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,005k	4,656k	4,709k	4,752k	4,834k	4,930k	4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,445k	8,399k	8,796k	8,942k	9,125k	9,271k	9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,452k	1,485k	1,520k	1,539k	1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,980k	11,485k	11,528k	11,641k	11,552k	11,677k	11,832k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,967k	3,570k	3,543k	3,556k	3,491k	3,522k	3,593k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,227k	6,161k	6,359k	6,462k	6,453k	6,536k	6,596k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,785k	1,754k	1,627k	1,623k	1,608k	1,619k	1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,057k	14,705k	14,915k	14,985k	15,110k	15,227k	15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,024k	4,718k	4,698k	4,701k	4,731k	4,765k	4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,480k	8,486k	8,769k	8,885k	8,981k	9,056k	9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,552k	1,501k	1,448k	1,398k	1,398k	1,405k	1,516k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3087	0.3060	0.3067	0.3074	0.3079	0.3085	0.3096

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,855 †	£18,031 †	£18,044 †	£18,074 †	£18,412 †	£18,601 †	£18,760 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,160 †	£29,123 †	£28,854 †	£29,271 †	£29,596 †	£29,977 †	£30,508 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,487 †	£35,715 †	£36,299 †	£36,815 †	£37,112 †	£37,662 †	£38,553 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,424 †	£41,073 †	£42,070 †	£42,811 †	£43,545 †	£44,408 †	£44,712 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,708 †	£45,026 †	£46,129 †	£46,814 †	£47,828 †	£48,812 †	£49,924 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,515 †	£49,802 †	£50,934 †	£51,623 †	£52,161 †	£53,459 †	£54,880 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,390 †	£57,584 †	£58,466 †	£59,207 †	£60,297 †	£60,839 †	£62,507 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,882 †	£70,472 †	£71,805 †	£73,090 †	£74,448 †	£75,958 †	£77,703 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,797 †	£82,154 †	£83,378 †	£84,598 †	£86,261 †	£87,729 †	£90,749 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,816 †	£120,687 †	£122,615 †	£124,719 †	£126,945 †	£129,271 †	£132,166 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.61bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.58bn	£-1.48bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.28bn	£-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.50bn	£-21.94bn	£-22.03bn	£-22.40bn	£-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.49bn	£12.83bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.28bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£1.96bn	£1.85bn	£1.74bn	£1.63bn	£1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.49bn	£21.93bn	£22.02bn	£22.40bn	£22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.28bn	£3.36bn	£3.41bn	£3.47bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T08:01:53Z

UK hub independent review at d8aae1b: REQUEST_CHANGES (two small blockers; the core change is right). September 2026 CPI = 3.5% checked against ONS; the new index reproduces every published September rise from April 2011 to April 2027; the triple lock is unaffected (earnings 3.9% binds).

B1: CI is red on this head. tests/test_childcare_funding_rates.py:161 still pins gov.dfe.childcare_funding_rate to gov.benefit_uprating_cpi; compute its factor from indices.obr.lagged_cpi.
B2: universal_credit/elements/childcare/cap.yaml declares uprating on the node without propagate_metadata_to_children, so the UC childcare caps never uprate (£1,071.09 and £1,836.16 for ever). Add it (April 2027: £1,108.58 and £1,900.42), and make the invariant test catch node-level uprating that doesn't reach its leaves.
Should fix: S1, HB non-dependant income bands are earnings-linked in practice; S2, the savings credit threshold and HB pension-age allowances are inside s150, so reword 'outside the s150 prices review'; S3, a stale docstring; S4, May–July 2026 AWE is no longer provisional (20 Oct release).
Follow-ups: F1, the PC standard minimum guarantee is below its s150A(2) earnings floor for April 2027 (model +2.3% vs at least +3.9%); F2, Scottish benefits (SCP, PAWHP, Carer Supplement) sit on other indices; F3, ESA(IR) and JSA(C) amounts have no uprating; F4, no rounding.

The owner session has archived itself, so the hub will run a build for B1, B2 and S1–S4 once Fleet ops lifts disk pause #13, and a separate PR for F1. Full review: ~/reviews/uk-hub/reviews/uk2557/REVIEW_2557.md.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T11:40:58Z

UK hub note (22 Oct), from the review of the Budget dashboard's CPI model limit:

UC protected health element: its April 2027 amount comes from the UC Act 2025 s.4 floor, which reads the September 2026 CPI input. Entering the outturn (3.5%, ONS D7G7) fixes it; Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557 does that and repoints the UC Act indices (ss1(3), 4(4)) to September CPI.
Ordering: Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI #2336 (additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI) is already on main. Until Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557 lands, their April 2027 rise uses the forecast September 2026 CPI, so a Budget pair cut before Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557 lands carries that gap.
Still open after Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557: the PC standard minimum guarantee must rise by at least earnings (SSAA 1992 s150A(2)): ≥3.9% for April 2027 against the model's +2.3%. A hub build is queued for it, stacked on Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T11:46:29Z

UK hub fix hand-off — runtime validation blocked by Fleet ops disk pause #14.

Head: 567c1df112556e8b45bfafab61ffe90a6deaac23, three commits added above the unchanged original author commit d8aae1b12; pushed once as a fast-forward. No merge.

B1/B2: DfE test reads the retained lagged-CPI factor; UC childcare cap metadata reaches both leaves; April 2027 caps are pinned at £1,108.58 / £1,900.42. The new invariant checks node metadata reaches its leaves.
S1–S4: HB income-band thresholds explicitly retain lagged CPI pending earnings-basis work; deduction amounts remain on September CPI. Corrected s150 wording and April 2027/2028 docstring. Re-cited May–July 2026 AWE to the 20 October ONS release and pinned the April 2027 triple lock to max(3.5%, 3.9%, 2.5%) = 3.9%.
Wealth decision: the GDP-per-capita metadata at household.wealth.national_balance_sheet.household also fails to propagate; history and its corporate-incidence fallback use indicate an older omission rather than an intended freeze. Preserve that unrelated behavior with one exact node/leaf exception; repair and measure separately.
Checks passed: full uvx ruff format --check . (1920 files), full ruff check --no-cache ., and git diff --check.
Tests blocked, not passed: every matching file was selected with git grep -l -e cpi_september -e benefit_uprating_cpi -e lagged_cpi -- policyengine_uk/tests (16 modules), plus three related published-rate/triple-lock modules. No dependency installation or suite was started: free disk remained below the explicit 60 GB floor (about 55 GB initially, 42 GB at hand-off), then pause Add reported but unmodelled benefits #14 was declared at 11:34Z. Its cleanup awaits review. Resume the frozen worktree venv and all 19 files via .job/run-validation.py --install then .job/run-validation.py; foreground -n 2, BLAS/OpenMP=2, explicit resource/pause gates. No local microsimulation.
Impact quoted in the updated body: the existing Aggregate impact report, before these fixes, gives 2027-28 UC +£868.9m, PC +£23.2m, State Pension +£189.7m, government spending +£1.88bn, income tax +£66.4m, government balance −£1.82bn and child absolute AHC poverty −0.44pp. 2025-26/2026-27 are unchanged. Refresh the report for cap propagation and the HB band override.
Open: local 19-file validation after the pause lift, independent delta review, green CI and refreshed impact. Review follow-ups F1 (earnings-linked PC/HB/savings threshold including HB deduction bands), F2 (Scottish benefits), F3 (ESA(IR)/JSA(C) uprating) and F4 (DWP rounding) are listed in the body, plus wealth and DfE/surcharge bases.

Workspace hand-off: .job/HANDOFF.md, .job/handoffs.jsonl, .job/PROGRESS.md; recovery bundle .job/uk2557-fixes.bundle. Sandbox makes shared .git read-only, so this job uses .job/git (git --git-dir=.job/git). No in-job reviewer was run; hub owns review and landing. No task process is left running.

The node's propagate_metadata_to_children copies its metadata onto every descendant with dict.update (policyengine-core propagate_parameter_metadata.py:20-28), so the node-level uprating: gov.benefit_uprating_cpi overwrote each band threshold's own lagged-CPI uprating and test_hb_non_dependant_income_bands_keep_lagged_cpi_ while_deductions_use_september failed in CI. Move the September CPI uprating from the node onto each deduction amount; units and references still propagate. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-23T04:18:36Z

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 9f2ebfc82, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol, round 2, APPROVE at this exact head. It covers the delta d8aae1b12..9f2ebfc82: B1, B2 and S1–S4 from round 1 (which approved the core change).
- The hub's commit 9f2ebfc moves the September CPI uprating from the HB non-dependant node onto each deduction amount, because the node's propagate_metadata_to_children overwrote each income band's lagged-CPI uprating.
- Local checks: 141 Python tests, 14 HB non-dependant YAML cases and a mutation check.
CI: gh pr checks exits 0 at this head (8,205 tests passed, 61 allowlisted skips, 2 allowlisted expected failures).
Impact, 2027-28 (Aggregate impact report on certified UK data 1.58.1): Universal Credit +£851.8m, Pension Credit +£23.2m, total benefit spending +£1.87bn. These are corrections to the law: benefits rise each April by the previous September's CPI (3.8% for April 2026), not the calendar-year average (3.4%).
Follow-ups outside this PR:
- the Pension Credit standard minimum guarantee's earnings floor for April 2027 (hub build queued);
- Scottish benefits off September CPI (hub build queued);
- the national balance sheet wealth uprating (corporate incidence).

Brings in #2557 (the base this PR was stacked on, now merged) so the PR workflow runs against main. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in #2557 (the base this PR was stacked on, now merged) and the other PRs merged since, so the PR workflow runs against main. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Resolves the conflicts with #2557 (September CPI uprating), which moved the standard minimum guarantee, Savings Credit threshold and pension-age HB allowances onto lagged CPI "until its own basis is modelled". This branch is that basis, so its projection indices replace the lagged-CPI placeholder, with a comment on each allowance and the guarantee saying why. Keeps main's NI scale validation ahead of the generation steps in process_parameter_tree, and both sides' Savings Credit YAML cases. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

#1913's aged_from_cutoff allowances equal the Pension Credit standard minimum guarantee in every enacted year (SI 2006/214 Sch 3 para 1(1)(c) and (2)(c)). On main both were on lagged CPI, so they stayed equal; once this branch moves the guarantee to the statutory earnings floor, the allowances would have drifted below it from 2027. They now use the same index, and a test checks they are equal in every year to 2040. #2557's lagged-CPI test now checks that these amounts have left lagged CPI. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

Encode SSAA 1992 s150 (annual prices review of benefits) with WBUA 2013 s1, WRWA 2016 s11 and UC Act 2025 ss1 and 3 TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#367

Open

MaxGhenis added 3 commits October 22, 2026 07:26

Fix childcare funding projection test to use lagged CPI

0618038

Fix benefit uprating propagation and preserve HB income-band projections

7f98831

Refresh ONS earnings citation and pin April 2027 triple lock

567c1df

vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

Stop early years hours once a child starts school, and start working parent hours with the next term #2570

Merged

8 tasks done

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

Benefit uprating index follows calendar-year CPI, not September CPI (3.4% vs 3.8% for April 2026) #2533

Closed

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026

This was referenced Oct 22, 2026

Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI #2575

Merged

Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement with the benefit uprating index #2105

Draft

Fix Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit earnings uprating #2576

Merged

github-merge-queue Bot removed this pull request from the merge queue due to failed status checks Oct 22, 2026

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026

PavelMakarchuk mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026

Add the September 2026 CPI claims and PE-UK benefit-rate read-backs PolicyEngine/policyengine-scorecard#223

Merged

4 tasks done

Merged via the queue into main with commit b1dbf8b Oct 23, 2026
17 checks passed

MaxGhenis deleted the benefit-uprating-september-cpi branch October 23, 2026 04:16

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 23, 2026

Merge main into sprint-scottish-september-cpi

79f0a08

Brings in #2557 (the base this PR was stacked on, now merged) so the PR workflow runs against main. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 23, 2026

Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092

Draft

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Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI - #2557

Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI#2557
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Summary

Law and practice

What changes

April 2027 rates

Aggregate impact

Invariants and tests

Axiom

Follow-ups from the hub review

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

Moves flagged for review

Receipts by tax head

Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Government balance, each component counted once

Model totals

Household income totals

Poverty rates

People in poverty

Inequality

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Household net income by decile

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