Split total income into programme-specific concepts by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2620 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-23T19:41:36Z

total_income had a tax-law label but summed raw income inputs and served several different programmes. This omitted statutory pay from WFP's old income test and from HB/CTR non-dependant bands. HB and CTR now apply those bands only to non-dependants in remunerative work; other eligible non-dependants with banding income pay the flat amount instead of a band. The gate never raises a deduction. Retain the exported name with the Income Tax definition, and give each other consumer an explicit income base.

Invariants

total_income delegates through nonempty adds metadata to total_income_charged_to_tax: ITA 2007 s.23 Step 1, interpreted by s.989 and s.31. The tax component sum is before general-income loss relief; carried-forward trading loss relief already deducted inside a component is restored, and net-pay pension relief held separately by the model is deducted. RAS pension relief and Gift Aid do not lower total income. Existing component limitations, including netted miscellaneous losses and deficiency relief deducted from dividends, remain documented.
SSP, SMP and SPP enter each tax/HB/CTR income concept once through employment_benefits. HB earnings remains algebraically identical to its old calculation, with an explicit positive-component tax-apportionment denominator.
Household post-tax income and both UBI phase-outs retain their historical raw input base through gross_taxable_inputs, including its exclusion of statutory pay. This is an explicit modelling/design choice, not a legal definition. Taxes can still move where the corrected WFP income concept changes liability.
The refactor preserves taxable component formulas, CTR rates, existing eligibility/exemptions, couples and band edges, and Wales Childcare Offer Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535. The merged Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 prerequisite adds the WFP charge. The work gate below corrects when the income bands apply.

Consumers: old → new

Consumer	Old definition	New definition / source
`total_income`	Wages + private pensions + tax-social-security income + trading/property income + savings/other investment income + dividends + nonnegative miscellaneous income; labelled after reliefs	Alias of tax Step 1 total, summing `adjusted_net_income_components` before Step 2 reliefs as represented by the model. ITA 2007 s.23, ss.31,989.
WFP legacy eligibility test / actual charge	Legacy test read raw `total_income`; #2066 charge introduced tax total separately	Both read retained `total_income`; actual charge uses an individual's income strictly exceeding £35,000 and keeps entitlement separate. ITEPA 2003 s.681I.
HB non-dependant bands	`total_income − other_investment_income + max(spousal maintenance,0)`	`housing_benefit_non_dep_gross_income`: same represented income plus statutory pay, positive child maintenance, MA, IIDB, SDA and war widow's periodic pension; disability/compensation disregards documented. HB reg74, pension-age reg55.
CTR non-dependant bands	Same cross-programme expression as HB	Separately owned `council_tax_reduction_non_dep_gross_income`; same currently representable sources, with separate national disregard references. England Sch1 para8, Scotland working-age reg90, Scotland pension-age reg48, Wales pension-age Sch1 para3, Wales working-age Sch6 para5.
HB / shared CTR net earnings	Earnings explicit, but tax attribution depended on `total_income` and its `adds`, plus statutory pay	Explicit earnings and explicit positive raw-income denominator; same calculation. HB regs35–36, self-employment regs37–38, pension-age regs35–36.
`post_tax_income`	Household `total_income − income_tax − national_insurance`	Household `gross_taxable_inputs − income_tax − national_insurance`, preserving the old input base. Household measure, not law.
Individual / household UBI phase-outs	Apply reform rates/thresholds to `total_income`	Apply unchanged rules to `gross_taxable_inputs`, preserving the design choice.

The non-dependant gross concepts retain their existing other-investment-income exclusion; extending this income base remains for #2007. The deduction consumers now apply the remunerative-work gate below. Annual statutory pay may coexist with work in another part of the year; leave itself does not establish remunerative work (HB reg6(7)). Signed trading/property inputs are retained; the band provisions do not directly settle cross-source offsets, and this refactor does not introduce a separate loss-offset rule. Existing national CTR consumers still use the HB deduction scale. Benefit-unit awards cannot currently be attributed safely to a person here (adding computed UC creates an HB/benefit-cap cycle); mixed periodic/capital BSP and AFCS inputs and unrepresented compensation payments remain explicit modelling limits. This PR does not claim complete regulatory coverage of those inputs.

Compatibility

Read-only grep of sibling repositories:

policyengine.py/src/policyengine/tax_benefit_models/uk/model.py:72 exports the name; tests/test_models.py:261–269 requires nonempty adds (preserved); four UK household-calculator snapshots contain output keys.
policyengine-api: no tracked exact-word references.
policyengine-app-v2/app/src/mocks/UK_Metadata.json: variable/module metadata at 9717–9743, generated abolition metadata at 36677–36681, namespace at 44307–44310. Module name gov.hmrc.income_tax.total_income remains valid.

PR #2535 is untouched. Its proposed total_income + employment_benefits + maintenance_income expression would now count statutory pay twice. A childcare gross-income test should declare its legally supported components, following the explicit HB/CTR pattern, rather than reconstruct gross income from the tax total.

Callers supplying an income override for household post-tax income or UBI phase-outs should now supply gross_taxable_inputs; an explicit total_income override is a tax-total override.

Remunerative-work gate and review response

Answers the P2 in the hub's independent review uk2620/REVIEW_2620.md, at reviewed head 20d873b6e8c4f7ae5273281a64280dcb3da6385b: newly counted IIDB and maintenance must not put non-workers into higher income bands.

Also answers the P1 in round 2 (uk2620-r2/REVIEW.md, at 404daf7d1): the first version of the gate (6df0e6f65) charged the flat amount to non-workers with nil banding income, where the old lookup gave zero. Much of that group is exempt in law (a claimant on Attendance Allowance, PIP daily living or similar; CTR non-dependants on IS, JSA(IB), ESA(IR), SPC or UC without earnings; HB non-dependants on SPC, or under 25 on IS, JSA(IB) or ESA(IR) without the support component, or on UC without earnings; full-time students), and none of those exemptions is modelled yet. cf5b3b530 makes the gate only ever lower a deduction.

HB reg 74(1)(b), (2) and pension-age reg 55(1)(b), (2) reserve income banding for remunerative workers. England SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 8; Scotland SSI 2021/249 reg 90 and SSI 2012/319 reg 48; Wales WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 3 and Sch 6 para 5 make the same distinction.
Read weekly_hours (hours_worked / 52) against the programme/nation's remunerative_work_hours parameter, currently 16. Exclude people on IS, income-based JSA or income-related ESA using existing person-level is_on_* receipt flags. HB reg 6(1), (6), pension-age reg 6 and the corresponding CTR work definitions support this gate. Annual status/hours inputs cannot represent the regulations' within-week receipt or fluctuating-hours detail.
Outside remunerative work, cap the deduction at the flat first amount: min_(p.amount.calc(weekly_income, right=True), p.amount.amounts[0]). A non-worker with banding income pays the flat amount; one with nil banding income keeps the scale's zero until Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 adds the exemptions and the flat charge together. Keep right=True for workers' existing band edges.
Reuse byte-identical parameter files from draft #2007, head 4a0935b737cd71231e39340689b2148125f585c9: HB gov/dwp/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/remunerative_work_hours.yaml; CTR gov/local_authorities/{england/council_tax_reduction/pensioners,scotland/council_tax_reduction,wales/council_tax_reduction}/non_dep_deduction/remunerative_work_hours.yaml. This is only the work gate. Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 retains the full implementation: national CTR scales, couples, exemptions and inclusive band edges. This branch's existing receipt flags replace the older award-payee helper used there.

Existing non-workers with pension or other banding income also move from higher bands to the flat amount. This lowers their deductions as the law requires; it is wider than protecting newly counted IIDB/maintenance. The gate never raises a deduction: a non-worker with nil banding income still pays nothing, as before this PR. (The wider income base can still move a non-worker from nil banding income to the flat amount, for example one whose only income is IIDB; reg 74(1)(b) charges that, subject to the unmodelled exemptions.) Charging the flat amount to the non-exempt part of that group needs the exemptions first, which is #2007's scope. Inherited gaps in claimant, student and couple rules remain for #2007; this patch does not port them.

The 2026-27 HB table gives a £20.40 weekly flat amount. A non-worker with £12,000 IIDB pays £1,060.80 annually instead of £2,436.20. At 16 hours, £9,000 wages plus £12,000 IIDB or child maintenance is £403.85 weekly and pays £105.20 × 52 = £5,470.40; a 15-hour worker pays £1,060.80. National CTR tables were checked: flat amounts are England £5.20, Scotland £5.55 and Wales £6.70. This gate-only patch retains the inherited HB scale in the national CTR consumer, so its regression amounts intentionally match HB; adopting the correct national scales belongs to #2007.

Validation

Added a regression matrix across the two *_non_dep_remunerative_work.yaml files: IIDB and child maintenance at 0/15/16/37.5 hours, each IS/JSA(IB)/ESA(IR) exclusion, non-working pension/nil income, and programme/national parameter overrides. CTR covers England, Scotland and Wales. The matrix has 54 cases (17 HB and 37 CTR). The nil-income cases assert £0, and two guards cover exempt groups at nil banding income: an HB non-dependant aged 22 on IS, and a CTR non-dependant whose benefit unit gets UC without earnings. The CTR IS/JSA(IB)/ESA(IR) cases note that SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 8(8)(a) gives £0; with banding income the model still charges them the flat amount, an inherited gap left for Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007.
Existing 18 HB and 15 CTR statutory-pay deduction cases now explicitly work 16 hours weekly; their income and deduction expectations are unchanged. Existing banding unit cases also state working hours. The investment-income, claimant-routing and severe-premium snapshots, whose non-dependants have nil banding income, keep their pre-gate values (restored at cf5b3b530; parsed and compared with 20d873b6e: no output differs).
uvx ruff format --check .: passed (1,998 files). Ruff lint on changed formula directories/files: passed. git diff --check: passed. Static duplicate-key YAML parsing, parameter equality to Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 and Python AST parsing: passed. No model code was executed locally.
CI at cf5b3b530 (run 40040246952): every check passed. The five Python shards passed 8,798 tests with 66 skips and 2 expected failures (the slowest shard took 58m55s), and YAML passed 4,607. Lint, Changes, Documentation build and smoke imports (3.11–3.14) passed there, and Fix evidence in run 40040629472. Earlier heads: at 404daf7d1, Test / YAML passed 4,605 with 0 failed (run 40036380107; the other jobs were cancelled by the next push); at 6df0e6f65, all five Python shards passed, 8,765 passed with 61 allowed skips and 2 expected failures, every collected test ran once (run 40029283977). The later commits change the two gate formulas' non-worker line and YAML only.
No local pytest, simulation, dataset build or docs build, per the task's UK Budget certification host restriction. CI supplies runtime validation. No in-job reviewer was used; final independent review belongs to the hub.
Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 was still open when this branch began. First commit 57d2f5f63 merges its then head 76108fafe, so aggregate figures against main include that prerequisite until it merges. Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 has since merged main and moved to 3a3800e24. git merge-tree of the two heads gives four content conflicts: the docstrings in _net_earnings.py, housing_benefit_net_earnings.py and total_income_charged_to_tax.py, and the Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 changelog fragment. No formula is involved. This PR lands after Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 and reconciles them then.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_income_concepts_properties.py::test_statutory_pay_is_counted_once_in_each_programme_concept, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/housing_benefit_non_dep_remunerative_work.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_non_dep_remunerative_work.yaml

Aggregate impact figures

Aggregate impact run 40040246899 measured cf5b3b530, merged into main f66f0a205f4c694c1d69b2199409f571f58a314e as GitHub merge head e231b111d528a05a2d07a96df7f6c8a76e0886aa. Both sides used certified enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, HF revision 2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, SHA-256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784. These are full-PR changes against that main. They include the #2066 prerequisite (the Winter Fuel Payment charge, which accounts for the WFP and Income Tax rows) and the other income-definition changes.

Fiscal year	HB spending (£m)	CTR spending (£m)	CTR caseload	WFP spending (£m)	Income tax (£m)	Household net income (£m) †
2025–26	+1.093	+0.246	+925	+175.420	+293.298	−116.539
2026–27	+1.138	+0.288	+929	+183.658	+310.085	−125.001
2027–28	+1.182	+0.355	+932	+214.477	+337.978	−121.964
2028–29	+1.212	+0.444	+936	+217.046	+351.919	−133.217
2029–30	+1.242	+0.525	+940	+228.177	+369.892	−139.948
2030–31	+1.272	+0.612	+944	+259.055	+397.225	−136.286
2031–32	+1.303	+0.702	+948	+293.772	+422.051	−126.274

0 newly broken checks; 1 failing on both sides (sign:vat, VAT is never negative); 0 fixed. The report records 344 passing checks, 19 warnings and one skipped check. Runtime differences and structural failures are empty. It flags 27 moves for independent review: WFP spending and caseload, Income Tax, decile mean incomes, and pensioner relative poverty after housing costs in 2031–32. None is an HB or CTR flag.

Pensioner relative poverty after housing costs in 2031–32 comes from #2066, not from this PR's own changes. At the head it rises by 0.37pp, from 12.38% to 12.75% (+43.3k pensioners). #2066's own Aggregate impact run at 3a3800e24 (run 40046674016), against main 29c5a0a98 and without this PR, gives the same base and head rate and count to every digit (12.376796% to 12.751478%, +43,267 pensioners). So this PR's HB and CTR changes move no poverty figure in that year. In that run, relative poverty after housing costs in 2031–32 rises for every group (+64.9k people, including +11.5k children), while absolute poverty after housing costs falls by 56. That points to a higher relative line (60% of each simulation's own median) rather than lower incomes at the bottom, and the hub's local trace on #2066 confirms it. There, the median rises £26.50 and the line £15.90 (+43,267 pensioners net, matching the run), and all 64,923 people who enter relative poverty have unchanged income.

Gate-only effect. Run 40014615941 measured the pre-gate source 7bdd78509, which is formula-identical to 20d873b6e (only three docstrings differ), against main c417f283a. Its baseline HB and CTR spending and caseloads equal this run's in 2025–26 and 2026–27. From 2027–28 they differ, because main changed between the two runs: baseline HB moves by £29m to £44m a year. So the difference of the two PR deltas isolates the gate in the first two years only:

	2025–26	2026–27
HB spending, gate only (£m)	+1.362	+1.419
HB caseload, gate only	0	0
CTR spending, gate only (£m)	+0.246	+0.288
CTR caseload, gate only	+925	+929

The pre-gate PR delta was −£0.27m to −£0.32m a year for HB and 0 for CTR: the wider income base raised some non-workers' bands (round 1's P2). The gate only ever lowers a non-dependant deduction. In these two years it raises HB by about £1.4m a year with no change in HB caseload, and gives about 925 more benefit units some CTR. The superseded gate at 6df0e6f65 also charged nil-income non-workers the flat amount (HB −£6.0m to −£7.1m a year in run 40029283812); cf5b3b530 removed that charge.

† Household net income consistently excludes suppressed Disabled Students’ Allowance figures on both sides. The linked report includes tax receipts, WFP, poverty, deciles and reform costings. The hub keeps its downloaded aggregate-only artifacts; no local microsimulation was run.

Known follow-ups (not in this PR)

From round 2, all inherited and in #2007's scope:

Band edges. With right=True, a worker at exactly £192.00 a week gets £20.40, where reg 74(2)(b) gives £46.85 (every edge is the same), and a remunerative worker with nil or negative banding income gets £0, where reg 74(2)(a) gives the flat amount. Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 uses calc(weekly_income) and calc(0).
Couples. Joint-income banding and the one-deduction rule (reg 74(3)–(4), reg 55(3)–(4), CTR para 8(3)–(4)) are not modelled.
Northern Ireland reference. The HB remunerative_work_hours.yaml cites the GB regulations only; NISR 2006/405 reg 6 has the same 16 hours and the same reg 6(6) exclusion. The file is byte-identical to Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007's, so the reference goes in there.
Merge order with Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007. git merge-tree gives six content conflicts: the two gate formula files and four YAML files. The four parameter files merge cleanly. Whichever PR lands second reconciles them; Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 builds its income-related-benefit test from its own is_award_payee helper.
Leave and sickness (reg 6(7), reg 10(7)) stay an annual-data approximation, as above.

axiom: needed

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

ITEPA 2003 s.681I (FA 2026 Sch 10, from 2025-26) charges a person entitled to a winter fuel payment the whole payment when their own total income exceeds £35,000 and they are not entitled to IS, income-based JSA, Pension Credit, income-related ESA or UC. It covers the Winter Fuel Payment in England and Wales (SI 2025/969) and Northern Ireland (NISR 2025/142) and Scotland's Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (SSI 2024/351). - winter_fuel_payment_charge (Person) under gov.hmrc.income_tax.charges, added to income_tax after tax reductions (ITA 2007 s.23 Step 7, s.30). - Payments stay gross; from 2025 the WFP pays everyone of pensionable age (require_benefits false), so entitlement, and the shared amounts, come before the charge. - Means tests deduct income_tax_before_winter_fuel_payment_charge: the charge recovers a payment, and it depends on PC/UC receipt. - pawhp counts in household_benefits and HBAI income, like the WFP. - The household income test is deprecated (off from 2025; boundary <=). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ment charge ITEPA 2003 s.681I(5) lists five relevant benefits and no tax credits. A mutant that exempted tax credit recipients survived the other cases. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in #2038 as merged (paid-to versus couple receipt, payee-only is_on_pension_credit over the qualifying age, is_on_universal_credit without an ineligible partner, the dated age test), #1949 (UC earned income deducts each person's own tax on earnings) and the rest of main. Conflicts: - uc_earned_income: take #1949's formula; uc_income_tax_on_earnings works from the rates and never reads income_tax. - is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings: main's claimant-only sum, deducting income_tax_before_winter_fuel_payment_charge. - is_benefit_cap_exempt_other: main's version (it no longer tests earnings). - winter_fuel_payment_eligible: main's age test with this branch's <=. - The Hypothesis reference: main's paid-to logic; the WFP means condition holds outside 2024; the charge exempts only a person a relevant benefit is paid to (the claimant for IS, JSA, ESA and PC; both for UC), as the model's is_on_* variables now do. Two income_tax readers came in from main and would include the charge: - housing_benefit_net_earnings (HB regs 36(3)): deducts the tax before the charge, which is not tax deducted from earnings; - uses_property_allowance: the route branches compare the tax before the charge, since the charge depends on Pension Credit, which depends on property income. New YAML cases cover both, and the partner of an Income Support claimant who is paid and charged. relevant_benefits.yaml describes the payee reading. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The model's total_income is before the property allowance, so the charge is the same on either route; reading income_tax in the route branches would only recompute the means-tested benefits there (a probe with income_tax in the route made the same choice and raised no CycleError). Correct the YAML case's comment to match: total income is £35,300 on either route. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Without universal_credit: 0 the model computes a Universal Credit award for the couple, which makes both members joint claimants and exempts the partner. Zero Universal Credit and Pension Credit, as the other cases do. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…harge

Three property tests that CI failed on 03154a1 compared a means test with income_tax, which now includes the winter fuel payment charge: - test_uc_earnings_deductions_properties: the pre-#1942 UC earned income formula deducted benunit_tax, which now reads the charge and so UC receipt (CycleError). It deducts the benefit unit's income tax before the charge and its NI instead. - test_council_tax_reduction_carer_income_properties and test_housing_benefit_savings_credit_only_properties: CTR and HB income deduct income_tax_before_winter_fuel_payment_charge, so the identities add back that liability, not income_tax. The HB boundary test also excludes the charge, as it excludes the other payments that depend on Pension Credit receipt. A YAML case pins CTR income to the tax before the charge, which no YAML case covered. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Review r3 (lost to the 10/12 reboot) found two properties false inside their own generators on aede16d, both comparing a means test with income_tax, which now includes the winter fuel payment charge: - test_deductions_equal_tax_and_ni_on_earnings_alone: a pensioner in a mixed-age couple earning £40,000 off UC is charged £200. UC deducts tax on earnings (reg 55(5)), so the test compares with the tax before the charge. - check_routes in the CTR Pension Credit properties: MAIN_DEDUCTIONS now uses the tax before the charge, as the CTR means test does. Both counterexamples are pinned as plain tests that also assert the charge is levied. Also: - the inert income_tax: 0 inputs in two means-test YAML files now set the variable the means tests read; - the property-allowance YAML case is labelled a known gap: the law's partial relief would bring total income under £35,000; - s.681J links to ITEPA, not FA 2026; - the changelog no longer says the household test "charged" anyone; - the HB property's reason for excluding the WFP fits its 2026 year. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…harge

…harge # Conflicts: # policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py

…harge Conflict in is_benefit_cap_exempt_earnings.py: take main's uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif, which deducts each person's own uc_income_tax_on_earnings and so never reads income_tax or the charge. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…e property election Review r5 and CI on adcf821: - The charge tested total_income, which leaves out the statutory sick and maternity pay the model taxes as employment income. Total income is the income charged to tax (ITA 2007 s.23 Step 1), so they now count (test_uc_statutory_pay_properties invariant 2 failed on CI). - uses_property_allowance compared tax before the charge. A route can change Pension Credit and so the s.681I(4) exemption; it now compares income_tax, as main did (r5 P2, the m6 mutant was not equivalent). - test_trading_loss_properties: the means tests deduct tax before the charge, so the properties hold that; relief versus income cut compares it too, since relief comes after total income (Step 2). - test_variable_code_sharing reads a variable with a formula; income_tax now only adds. - YAML: statutory sick pay in total income, trade loss relief after total income, and the election that avoids the charge. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…harge

Main now has the PAWHP household-income lines (#2047) and UC and benefit cap earnings tests that deduct each person's own tax on earnings, so the fragments no longer claim them. The property election compares income_tax, which includes the charge, since 1024887. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The election has counted the charge since 1024887, so the case is about total income being taken before the property allowance, not about the election ignoring the charge. Expected values are unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

… the trade loss property - test_rule_comparison (new on main) replaces income_tax's formula, but income_tax now only adds the pre-charge liability and the charge, so it has none (CI: StopIteration). It now replaces the pre-charge formula. - The zero-profit trade loss property held only tax before the charge, since 1024887. It now also checks the charge: it moves only in a household where the loss changes who is on a relevant benefit, as when lower tax ends Pension Credit and with it the exemption (s.681I(4)). A pinned pensioner exercises that case: on Pension Credit (£217.48) and not charged without the loss; off it and charged £200 with it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…harge

The winter fuel payment charge tests total income (ITEPA 2003 s.681I(1)(b)), which is ITA 2007 s.23 Step 1: the income charged to tax, after employment expenses, capital allowances, the trading and property allowances and exempt ISA interest, and before the Step 2 reliefs. The charge read total_income, which sums gross income. Add total_income_charged_to_tax, the Step 1 figure adjusted_total_income already worked out for the s.24A cap (the taxable components with losses brought forward added back), and have both read it. Tests that set the charge's income now set the new variable; six YAML cases pin each deduction, and the property allowance case that pinned the old gap now follows the law. r6 P1: test_income_tax_falls_with_the_loss_by_at_most_the_relief compared income_tax, which the charge can raise when the relief ends a Pension Credit award. Compare tax before the charge, check that the charge moves only with benefit receipt or total income, and pin r6's counterexample. Invariants 3 and 9 say so. Nits: the code-sharing helper's name, the deprecated limit's reference, the changed.md wording, and a pinned pensioner charged on both sides of the zero-profit test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…harge

…ousehold Review r7 found two ways the property allowance election could choose the route with the higher income tax once the winter fuel payment charge is in it: - Without finance costs at stake, the allowance was taken whenever it lowered taxable property income. Lower tax before the charge can raise the income Pension Credit counts, end the award and with it the s.681I(4) exemption, and the charge can exceed the saving. While the charge has effect, these landlords now compare both routes too; ties keep the allowance, so anyone the charge does not reach gets the answer the shortcut gave. - Landlords decided one per benefit unit, so landlords in separate benefit units of one household switched together. A couple's Pension Credit decides whether the partner is entitled to a payment, which moves another benefit unit's shared payment and charge. Landlords now decide one per household. Pins both counterexamples in YAML and adds a Hypothesis property: no landlord in a pensioner household lowers their own income tax, charge included, by switching route alone. The couples property now covers every landlord the allowance would help. Also qualifies the trading loss invariants (they hold tax before the charge) and total_income_charged_to_tax's description. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Conflict: test_trading_loss_properties.py docstring. Kept main's invariant 1 wording (pre-pension net_income, #2440) and this branch's invariants 2 and 3 (tax before the charge). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…d limit Review r8: the opening claim that every election lowers tax holds only with finance costs to relieve; without them the allowance is the default and ties keep it. The household loop stops after MAX_ROUNDS even if routes are still changing. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

FA 2004 s.193(2) deducts contributions under a net pay arrangement from employment income, so total income (ITA 2007 s.23 Step 1), which the winter fuel payment charge tests, is after them. The model holds employment income gross of pension contributions, takes employee contributions as net pay and gives their relief through allowances, so total_income_charged_to_tax overstated a working pensioner's total income by their relieved employee contributions. New net_pay_pension_relief: the relieved employee contributions, up to taxable employment income. adjusted_total_income now deducts at Steps 3 and 4 only the relieved contributions not already out of total income (s.24A(8)), so its values are unchanged. Relief at source (s.192) still leaves total income alone. Tests: four YAML cases worked from the law, and a Hypothesis property (net pay relief, total income, adjusted total income, the charge, and relief at source leaving total income alone); two mutants each fail it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…harge

…at source Review r9 found the net pay deduction capped at pension_contributions_relief, whose relevant UK earnings leave out statutory sick and maternity pay. A pensioner with £1,000 of wages, £3,000 of SSP, a £32,500 pension and £2,000 of employee contributions had £1,000 deducted and a £200 charge, where the law deducts the whole £2,000 (FA 2004 ss.189(2)(a), 190(1), 193(2); HMRC PTM044100) and charges nothing. Personal contributions also moved the deduction, through the basic-amount rise that s.191(7) keeps for relief at source. The deduction is now the employee contributions up to taxable employment income, none from age 75. Relevant UK earnings include all of that income, so the s.190 limit never binds below it. It no longer reads relief at source. Two YAML cases pin the SSP case with and without personal contributions; the net pay property test now draws statutory sick and maternity pay. ATI's comment and the changelog qualify "unchanged" for float32 rounding. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…del's relief Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The ATI comment's "never exceed" holds for contributions of zero or more; the add-back cancels either way. Relieving employee contributions first is the model's order, not one the Act states. The fixed fragment now says the payment reaches everyone of pensionable age who meets its other conditions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…are at stake WIP for Max's ruling on d1669, not for the PR until he rules. Since 26ff324 every landlord the property allowance helps had both routes compared while the winter fuel payment charge has effect. Each comparison works out income tax with the charge, and so the means-tested benefits, for the whole population, at every Simulation init for 2025-2032: CI shards reached 15.5 GB (9-10 GB on main) and a synthetic probe took 6.0 s against 0.9 s. On the Enhanced FRS the comparison moved no record's tax, charge or Pension Credit. Landlords without finance costs take the allowance without comparing again, as on main. Review r7's lone pensioner becomes a pinned limit: the YAML case and a property test record that the model takes the allowance and charges her £200 (£5,227.40 against £5,187.40 with expenses). The pensioner property now asserts optimality for landlords with finance costs to relieve. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Conflicts, each resolved to keep both sides' intent: - taxable_income_test parameters (maximum_taxable_income, use_maximum_taxable_income): main reworded the household test as inclusive of total income at the limit; this branch had already deprecated it with that wording. Keep this branch's descriptions. - winter_fuel_allowance/taxable_income_test.yaml: keep this branch's at-threshold case (same expected value as main) and its 2025 cases, and add main's 2024 case that other investment income counts. - test_winter_heating_payment_properties.py: main made the household stand-in inclusive; this branch removes the stand-in and covers 35,000 and 35,001. Keep this branch's. - housing_benefit_net_earnings: main moved the earnings rules into _net_earnings.person_net_earnings, shared with the new council_tax_reduction_net_earnings. Take main's helper and deduct income tax before the winter fuel payment charge inside it, so Housing Benefit and the CTR pensioner earnings disregards both keep this branch's rule. Semantic follow-ups of main's changes: - test_pension_credit_prescribed_benefits_properties.py (new on main): its tax identities now use the tax Pension Credit income deducts, before the charge, as this branch's other means-test property tests do. - winter_fuel_payment_eligible: main's comment on the inclusive limit now describes the deprecated test. Main: 61b5854 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Main moved to #2078 (Council Tax Reduction applicant means test) while the previous merge was being resolved. No conflicts: CTR applicable income still deducts income tax before the winter fuel payment charge, and CTR net earnings still go through person_net_earnings, which does too. Main: 79fa317 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…arge adjusted_total_income: main's #2488 relief limit (relevant earnings, raised towards the basic amount only by relief-at-source contributions) with this branch's Step 1 from total_income_charged_to_tax and its net pay add-back. Documentation keeps both. The net pay property test's reference takes #2488's limit for invariant 3. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Since 75ca17c, landlords without finance costs take the property allowance without comparing tax. The couples property still checks every landlord the allowance would help, so for those without finance costs it now checks main's shortcut, which holds because the couples are 40 and so never charged. Its comment still said everyone compares tax while the charge has effect. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ment-charge No conflicts. programs.yaml auto-merged: main's registry fixes (#2443) and this branch's notes on income tax, the Winter Fuel Payment and PAWHP touch different entries. #2493's 2022 full-year director NI and #2506's aggregate-impact runtime identity read nothing this branch changes; the director tests read income_tax only in 2022, before the charge. Main: 6990350 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Two YAML files that reached this branch with the merges of main still expected main's rules and failed CI's YAML job at 56a7fe2. winter_fuel_allowance.yaml (#2174's boundary cases): main stood in for the charge with the household income test, so a pensioner with £35,001 of total income lost the payment. Here everyone of pensionable age is paid from 2025 and the charge recovers it, so that pensioner is paid £200 and charged £200. The four boundary cases now check winter_fuel_payment_charge (nothing at £34,999 or exactly £35,000, the whole payment at £35,001), and the comment describes the charge, not the stand-in. statutory_pay_pension_relief.yaml (#2464), "Age75 exclusion retained": the 75-year-old's total income is £42,000, with nothing relieved from age 75 (FA 2004 s.188(3)(a)), so income tax includes the £200 charge: 6,086, of which 5,886 (main's figure) is tax before the charge. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

#2464 (merged into main on 2026-10-19 and into this branch with the merges of main) counts statutory sick and maternity pay as relevant UK earnings in pension_contributions_relief (utils/pensions.py relevant_uk_earnings adds employment_benefits). The documentation still said that relief counted only wages and trading profits (issue #2371) and so could give less relief than this deduction. The PR's merge notes said to drop the sentence once #2464 merged. Documentation only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge #2066 at 76108fa before the programme-specific income refactor; retain main statutory paternity pay in HB earnings conflict resolutions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Retain total_income as the tax-law total; count statutory pay and maintenance in non-dependant gross income while preserving household and UBI input bases. Replace HB tax-attribution metadata coupling with explicit components and add legal YAML and random-input regressions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-10-23T19:52:01Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base f66f0a205f against head e231b111d5, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 27 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Winter Fuel Payment	2031-32	6,248k	7,551k	+1,302.9k
Winter Fuel Payment	2030-31	6,379k	7,518k	+1,139.8k
Winter Fuel Payment	2029-30	6,493k	7,485k	+991.8k
Winter Fuel Payment	2028-29	6,512k	7,452k	+940.1k
Winter Fuel Payment	2027-28	6,600k	7,534k	+934.0k
Winter Fuel Payment	2026-27	7,011k	7,828k	+816.6k
Winter Fuel Payment	2025-26	7,091k	7,875k	+783.7k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,429k	1,473k	+43.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	12.4%	12.8%	+0.37pp
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£44,160	£44,320	+£159
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£57,572	£57,393	-£179
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£37,680	£37,569	-£111
Winter Fuel Payment	2031-32	£1.52bn	£1.81bn	+£293.8m
Winter Fuel Payment	2030-31	£1.55bn	£1.81bn	+£259.1m
Winter Fuel Payment	2029-30	£1.57bn	£1.80bn	+£228.2m
Winter Fuel Payment	2028-29	£1.57bn	£1.79bn	+£217.0m
Winter Fuel Payment	2027-28	£1.59bn	£1.81bn	+£214.5m
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	2025-26	£79,810	£79,658	-£152
Winter Fuel Payment	2026-27	£1.68bn	£1.86bn	+£183.7m
Winter Fuel Payment	2025-26	£1.70bn	£1.87bn	+£175.4m
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£70,760	£70,873	+£112
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£122,638	£122,501	-£136
Income tax	2031-32	£403.66bn	£404.09bn	+£422.1m
Income tax	2030-31	£385.36bn	£385.76bn	+£397.2m
Income tax	2029-30	£367.24bn	£367.61bn	+£369.9m
Income tax	2027-28	£336.54bn	£336.88bn	+£338.0m
Income tax	2028-29	£351.69bn	£352.04bn	+£351.9m

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	+£293.3m	+£310.1m	+£338.0m	+£351.9m	+£369.9m	+£397.2m	+£422.1m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Winter Fuel Payment	+£175.4m	+£183.7m	+£214.5m	+£217.0m	+£228.2m	+£259.1m	+£293.8m
Housing Benefit	+£1.1m	+£1.1m	+£1.2m	+£1.2m	+£1.2m	+£1.3m	+£1.3m
Council Tax Reduction	+£0.2m	+£0.3m	+£0.4m	+£0.4m	+£0.5m	+£0.6m	+£0.7m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Winter Fuel Payment	+783.7k	+816.6k	+934.0k	+940.1k	+991.8k	+1,139.8k	+1,302.9k
Council Tax Reduction	+925	+929	+932	+936	+940	+944	+948
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	+£293.3m	+£310.1m	+£338.0m	+£351.9m	+£369.9m	+£397.2m	+£422.1m
Government spending	+£176.8m †	+£185.1m †	+£216.0m †	+£218.7m †	+£229.9m †	+£260.9m †	+£295.8m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£116.5m †	+£125.0m †	+£122.0m †	+£133.2m †	+£139.9m †	+£136.3m †	+£126.3m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	+£293.3m	+£310.1m	+£338.0m	+£351.9m	+£369.9m	+£397.2m	+£422.1m
household_tax	+£293.3m	+£310.1m	+£338.0m	+£351.9m	+£369.9m	+£397.2m	+£422.1m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	+£293.3m	+£310.1m	+£338.0m	+£351.9m	+£369.9m	+£397.2m	+£422.1m
gov_spending	+£176.8m †	+£185.1m †	+£216.0m †	+£218.7m †	+£229.9m †	+£260.9m †	+£295.8m †
household_benefits	+£176.8m †	+£185.1m †	+£216.0m †	+£218.7m †	+£229.9m †	+£260.9m †	+£295.8m †
gov_balance	+£116.5m †	+£125.0m †	+£122.0m †	+£133.2m †	+£139.9m †	+£136.3m †	+£126.3m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£116.5m †	-£125.0m †	-£122.0m †	-£133.2m †	-£139.9m †	-£136.3m †	-£126.3m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£116.5m	-£125.0m	-£122.0m	-£133.2m	-£139.9m	-£136.3m	-£126.3m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	0	0	0	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	0	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	+0.09pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.00pp	0	0	0	0	0	+0.08pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	0	0	0	0	0	+0.02pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	+0.37pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-218	-4.9k	-202	-90	-115	-111	-200
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-66	-3.5k	-7	0	0	0	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-152	-1.4k	-195	-90	-115	-111	-200
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-68	-186	-137	-45	-243	-244	-56
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-68	-186	-137	-45	-243	-244	-56
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-748	-176	-223	-3.7k	-4.9k	-4.9k	-3.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-54	0	-66	-2.8k	-3.6k	-3.6k	-3.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-695	-176	-157	-933	-1.3k	-1.3k	-249
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-70	-175	-137	-302	-111	-52	+64.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-1	0	0	0	0	0	+11.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-1	0	0	0	0	0	+10.1k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-68	-175	-137	-302	-111	-52	+43.3k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£1.13 †	-£1.17 †	+£0.23 †	-£0.07 †	+£0.28 †	+£0.27 †	+£0.32 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.92 †	+£1.21 †	-£9.20 †	+£0.51 †	+£0.60 †	+£0.20 †	-£0.78 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£1.46 †	+£0.35 †	+£12 †	-£8.72 †	+£2.24 †	-£111 †	-£3.32 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£3.65 †	-£0.60 †	-£9.88 †	-£6.89 †	-£0.11 †	+£159 †	-£0.18 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.40 †	+£0.21 †	+£5.22 †	+£4.45 †	-£3.56 †	-£0.53 †	+£9.49 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£6.19 †	-£11 †	-£2.02 †	-£4.73 †	+£0.44 †	-£11 †	-£19 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.71 †	-£179 †	-£6.17 †	-£3.40 †	-£0.25 †	-£10 †	-£8.84 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£13 †	+£112 †	-£3.18 †	-£3.24 †	-£10 †	-£1.41 †	-£7.44 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	-£152 †	-£22 †	+£6.14 †	-£6.60 †	-£17 †	-£3.98 †	-£8.89 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£37 †	-£16 †	-£136 †	-£15 †	-£37 †	-£11 †	-£32 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£280	-£694	+£1,954	+£0.1m	+£847	-£2,753	-£2,852
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£1	-£65	+£58	-£4	+£1	-£0	-£6
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£5,057	+£5,180	-£0.1m	+£8,190	+£8,200	+£5,246	-£5,366
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£0	+£0	0	0	+£0	0	-£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£0	-£0	-£0	+£0	+£0	0	-£0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£1	-£1	+£1	+£1	+£2	-£68	+£53
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£326	-£71	-£12	-£86	-£39	+£76	-£105
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£0	0	-£0	+£0	+£0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£0	+£1	+£3	-£1	-£1	-£1	+£1
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£5.6m	+£6.2m	+£11.4m	+£5.1m	-£5.3m	-£8.4m	+£3.7m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£6,039	-£2	-£1	-£2	+£2	-£0	-£2
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£6,038	-£2	+£30	-£0	-£1	+£2	-£3
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	+£0	-£1	-£1	+£2	+£2	-£1	+£1
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	+£0	-£0	-£0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 2	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 3	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 4	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 5	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)	-£1 (-0.0%)
Decile 6	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£6 (-0.0%)
Decile 7	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)
Decile 8	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£5 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£9 (-0.0%)	-£9 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)
Decile 9	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)	-£9 (-0.0%)	-£9 (-0.0%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£3 (-0.0%)
Decile 10	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)	-£17 (-0.0%)
all	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)	-£4 (-0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.5%	3.0%
2026-27	0.5%	3.2%
2027-28	0.6%	3.2%
2028-29	0.6%	3.5%
2029-30	0.6%	3.6%
2030-31	0.6%	3.2%
2031-32	0.9%	3.3%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 86 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `f66f0a205f`	uk 2.151.1 (files `a68aefb68570`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`34d4e538ada6`	`dfe9982f4005`	1599.67s
head	#2620 merged into main `e231b111d5`	uk 2.151.1 (files `a4e3f67f5fda`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`34d4e538ada6`	`bbaabfb0dbcb`	1574.55s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.58bn	£319.32bn	£336.88bn	£352.04bn	£367.61bn	£385.76bn	£404.09bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.50bn	£4.52bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.93bn	£7.42bn	£7.85bn	£8.26bn	£8.68bn	£9.09bn	£9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.76bn	£129.65bn	£133.46bn	£137.40bn	£141.47bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.35bn	£7.50bn	£7.65bn	£7.83bn	£8.02bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.87bn	£1.86bn	£1.81bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn	£1.81bn	£1.81bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£83.40bn	£85.21bn	£86.21bn	£87.61bn	£88.91bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.22bn	£9.37bn	£9.64bn	£9.91bn	£10.20bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.98bn	£2.03bn	£2.07bn	£2.12bn	£2.17bn	£2.22bn	£2.27bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.87bn	£0.89bn	£0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£29.28bn	£30.02bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.14bn	£8.34bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.97bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.43bn	£9.67bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.40bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.87bn	£4.99bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.53bn	£17.96bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.77bn	£3.27bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.53bn	£3.61bn	£3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.26bn	£2.45bn	£2.51bn	£2.58bn	£2.64bn	£2.72bn	£2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.47bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.47bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,488k	1,470k	1,473k	1,476k	1,475k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,875k	7,828k	7,534k	7,452k	7,485k	7,518k	7,551k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,404k	6,419k	6,390k	6,387k	6,368k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,256k	1,242k	1,246k	1,250k	1,252k
Council Tax Reduction	3,188k	3,213k	3,226k	3,249k	3,267k	3,283k	3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	359k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,039k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	718k	724k	728k	732k	737k	741k	743k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	98k	98k	96k	96k	96k	97k	84k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.69bn	£939.36bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.14bn	£1,045.11bn	£1,081.73bn	£1,122.25bn
Government spending	£530.76bn †	£545.78bn †	£554.02bn †	£561.21bn †	£569.80bn †	£579.04bn †	£588.19bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£368.93bn †	£393.59bn †	£422.16bn †	£447.93bn †	£475.32bn †	£502.68bn †	£534.06bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£899.69bn	£939.36bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.14bn	£1,045.11bn	£1,081.73bn	£1,122.25bn
household_tax	£493.34bn	£519.65bn	£545.32bn	£567.26bn	£589.17bn	£613.29bn	£639.64bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£485.51bn	£511.53bn	£536.97bn	£558.22bn	£579.89bn	£603.75bn	£629.75bn
gov_spending	£530.76bn †	£545.78bn †	£554.02bn †	£561.21bn †	£569.80bn †	£579.04bn †	£588.19bn †
household_benefits	£530.76bn †	£545.78bn †	£554.02bn †	£561.21bn †	£569.80bn †	£579.04bn †	£588.19bn †
gov_balance	£368.93bn †	£393.59bn †	£422.16bn †	£447.93bn †	£475.32bn †	£502.68bn †	£534.06bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,655.21bn †	£1,704.61bn †	£1,738.50bn †	£1,773.00bn †	£1,809.43bn †	£1,851.40bn †	£1,903.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,462.06bn	£1,509.78bn	£1,544.13bn	£1,577.54bn	£1,611.95bn	£1,651.39bn	£1,702.27bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.1%	15.2%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.2%	21.4%	21.6%	21.6%	21.7%	22.0%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.0%	14.2%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	20.9%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	22.1%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.1%	31.1%	31.5%	32.0%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.7%	20.3%	20.5%	20.8%	21.0%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.4%	12.6%	12.7%	13.0%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.3%	16.4%	16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.4%	23.4%	22.9%	23.0%	22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.7%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.8%	14.0%	14.1%	13.9%	14.0%	14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.2%	21.2%	21.4%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.0%	30.8%	31.0%	31.1%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.5%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.4%	12.1%	12.0%	12.1%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,163k	10,578k	10,852k	11,004k	11,081k	11,222k	11,226k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,629k	3,221k	3,260k	3,284k	3,310k	3,369k	3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,902k	5,803k	6,080k	6,197k	6,234k	6,304k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,631k	1,555k	1,512k	1,523k	1,537k	1,550k	1,556k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,000k	14,571k	14,945k	15,111k	15,392k	15,662k	15,804k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,004k	4,656k	4,703k	4,723k	4,808k	4,897k	4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,476k	8,431k	8,812k	8,952k	9,130k	9,273k	9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,520k	1,484k	1,430k	1,437k	1,455k	1,492k	1,497k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,974k	11,507k	11,535k	11,638k	11,539k	11,658k	11,708k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,963k	3,570k	3,543k	3,553k	3,489k	3,519k	3,522k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,246k	6,184k	6,378k	6,472k	6,456k	6,534k	6,559k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,764k	1,753k	1,615k	1,612k	1,594k	1,604k	1,628k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,067k	14,732k	14,872k	14,931k	15,091k	15,202k	15,525k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,019k	4,715k	4,686k	4,669k	4,725k	4,754k	4,851k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,497k	8,516k	8,764k	8,884k	8,992k	9,060k	9,202k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,551k	1,501k	1,422k	1,378k	1,374k	1,388k	1,473k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3088	0.3061	0.3067	0.3073	0.3077	0.3083	0.3093

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,830 †	£18,012 †	£18,035 †	£18,081 †	£18,435 †	£18,637 †	£18,791 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,087 †	£29,022 †	£28,793 †	£29,250 †	£29,503 †	£29,925 †	£30,618 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,359 †	£35,678 †	£36,245 †	£36,717 †	£37,057 †	£37,569 †	£38,297 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,779 †	£40,950 †	£42,018 †	£42,694 †	£43,424 †	£44,320 †	£44,659 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,903 †	£44,794 †	£45,869 †	£46,626 †	£47,804 †	£48,684 †	£50,059 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,431 †	£49,760 †	£50,846 †	£51,830 †	£51,933 †	£53,543 †	£54,562 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,349 †	£57,393 †	£58,369 †	£58,825 †	£60,101 †	£60,683 †	£62,303 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,266 †	£70,873 †	£72,227 †	£73,321 †	£74,873 †	£76,023 †	£78,294 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,658 †	£82,165 †	£83,308 †	£84,751 †	£86,291 †	£87,880 †	£90,907 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,809 †	£120,665 †	£122,501 †	£124,767 †	£126,967 †	£129,352 †	£132,229 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.58bn	£-1.48bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.28bn	£-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.50bn	£-21.94bn	£-22.03bn	£-22.40bn	£-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.49bn	£12.83bn	£13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.28bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.06bn	£-8.05bn	£-8.17bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.61bn	£-8.96bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£1.96bn	£1.85bn	£1.74bn	£1.63bn	£1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.49bn	£21.93bn	£22.02bn	£22.40bn	£22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.28bn	£3.36bn	£3.41bn	£3.47bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

Exercise all three statutory payments in the deprecated WFP eligibility reform; clarify legal input limits and preserve the measured seven-year aggregate report. All formulas are unchanged from the fully validated implementation head. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-23T20:53:04Z

Hand-off at 9ed08314abc3d8bff20830485b3ac93fb52b2b11 (draft; no merge/enqueue).

Validated source 7bdd785: 8,681 Python passed / 61 allowed skipped / 2 xfailed; 4,488 YAML passed; lint, docs, Python 3.11–3.14 smoke imports, Test/Result and Aggregate impact passed. Local 3 Python properties and 9 WFP YAML passed; no local microsimulation/data build.

2025-26 combined with #2066: Income Tax +£293.298m; WFP spending +£175.420m and +783,692 weighted recipients; HB spending -£0.269m; CTR spending/caseload unchanged; government balance +£118.146m excluding suppressed DSA. Seven-year table is in RESULT.md/PR body.

Aggregate impact run 40014615941 passed with no newly broken checks; one pre-existing negative-VAT check persists. These figures include the required #2066 merge prerequisite. The final commit adds locally passing tests and documentation only; fresh CI is queued/running.

RESULT.md records all consumers/legal sources and compatibility references. .job/HANDOFF.md and .job/handoffs.jsonl contain the hub hand-off. Independent GPT-6.1 Sol review and Axiom parity remain with the hub. #2535 was not edited.

The report is a job artifact, not part of the change; the UK hub keeps a copy outside the repository. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Apply the 16-hour threshold and the IS/JSA(IB)/ESA(IR) exclusions, using the existing personal receipt flags and #2007 parameter files. Retain existing rates, eligibility, couple rules and band edges. Add 2026 regressions and update fixtures for the flat non-worker amount. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Give the vector policy tests an age array first so the default builder creates the intended number of people. Update the two existing CTR severe-premium snapshots for the inherited flat non-worker deductions. No policy formula or parameter changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Expand the regression matrix into single-person YAML cases because Core infers population size from the first input and does not broadcast scalars. Keep the same inputs and legal expected amounts in each scenario. No policy formula or parameter changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-23T23:10:04Z

UK hub pushed 404daf7d1 (fast-forward over 6df0e6f65; fixtures only, no formula or parameter change). It fixes the 18 YAML failures at 6df0e6f65:

Sixteen new vector cases inferred one person from scalar inputs. They are now 52 independent single-person cases: 16 HB and 36 CTR, covering all three nations.
Two CTR severe-premium snapshots omitted the new flat deduction. They are now £218.80 and zero.

6df0e6f65 answers the GPT-6.1 Sol round-1 P2. Income banding of the HB and CTR non-dependant deductions now applies only to a non-dependant in remunerative work: 16 or more hours a week, and not on IS, JSA(IB) or ESA(IR). Everyone else gets the flat amount, under HB reg 74(1)(b), (2), pension-age reg 55(1)(b), (2) and the national CTR equivalents. The four remunerative_work_hours.yaml files are byte-identical to #2007's.

Measured impact (Aggregate impact run 40029283812, the full PR including #2066, certified enhanced FRS 2024-25): HB spending falls about £6m a year (−£6.0m in 2025-26 to −£7.1m in 2030-31), and CTR spending falls about £1.7m a year. The report shows 0 newly broken checks.

A delta review of the gate and fixtures at this head is under way. This PR lands after #2066, which is in the merge queue.

The independent delta review of 404daf7 found a P1. The work gate charged the flat £20.40 a week to every non-worker. Before the gate, a non-worker with no banding income got the scale's zero, because calc(0, right=True) hits the zero sentinel. Many such non-dependants are exempt by law, and the model can identify them: - the non-dependants of an Attendance Allowance claimant (HB reg 74(6), reg 55(6), CTR Sch 1 para 8(6) and equivalents); - for CTR, a non-dependant on IS, JSA(IB), ESA(IR) or Pension Credit, or on UC without earnings (para 8(8)(a), (c)); - for HB, a non-dependant under 25 on IS (reg 74(8)). Measured alone, the gate cut HB about £6m a year and CTR about £1.7m. A non-worker's deduction is now the lower of the banded amount and the flat amount. At positive banding income, including pension income, that is the flat amount, as reg 74(1)(b) and its equivalents require. At nil income it is still zero, until #2007 models the exemptions together with the flat charge. The six snapshots the gate moved for nil-income non-workers are back to their pre-gate values. These are the two pension-age AA claimant cases, the two CTR claimant cases, and the two investment-income non-worker cases. The two new files' nil-income cases now assert zero. Two guards are added, an HB non-dependant under 25 on IS and a CTR non-dependant on UC without earnings, both at nil income. The CTR IS, JSA(IB) and ESA(IR) cases note that para 8(8)(a) exempts them; that exemption stays for #2007. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-23T23:36:45Z

Pushed cf5b3b530 (fast-forward over 404daf7d1) for the hub's round 2 review. It found that the first version of the gate (6df0e6f65) charged £20.40 a week to non-workers with nil banding income, where the old lookup gave £0. Much of that group is exempt in law, and none of the exemptions is modelled yet:

a claimant on Attendance Allowance, PIP daily living or similar (HB reg 74(6), reg 55(6), CTR Sch 1 para 8(6));
CTR non-dependants on IS, JSA(IB), ESA(IR) or SPC (para 8(8)(a)), or on UC without earnings (para 8(8)(c));
HB non-dependants under 25 on those benefits (reg 74(8)), or on SPC (reg 74(10));
full-time students.

The fix takes review option (a): the gate only ever lowers a deduction. Non-workers get min_(banded, flat) in both consumers: £20.40 at positive banding income, £0 at nil, until #2007 brings the exemptions and the flat charge in together.

Fixtures:

The six snapshots that the first gate moved are back to their pre-gate outputs, parsed and compared with 20d873b6e. That includes pension_age_severe_disability_conditions.yaml, where the same file's carer case confirms the AA exemption values.
Both nil-income cases now assert £0.
Two new guards at nil banding income: an HB non-dependant aged 22 on IS, and a CTR non-dependant whose benefit unit gets UC without earnings.
The CTR IS/JSA/ESA cases cite para 8(8)(a) as an inherited gap.

PR body: updated for the P2. It reports the gate-only decomposition from runs 40014615941 and 40029283812 (HB −£5.7m to −£6.8m a year, CTR −£1.6m to −£1.8m; almost all of it was the nil-income charge this commit removes). It marks those figures as superseded until Aggregate impact run 40040246899 at this head finishes, and lists the round 2 P3s (band edges, couples, the NI reference, merge order with #2007) as #2007 follow-ups.

Static checks: git diff --check clean, ruff formatted, merge-tree clean against main. I ran nothing locally (UK Budget certification reservation); CI is running. A delta review follows.

MaxGhenis and others added 30 commits October 2, 2026 07:45

Test that tax credits do not exempt a person from the winter fuel pay…

eeb4698

…ment charge ITEPA 2003 s.681I(5) lists five relevant benefits and no tax credits. A mutant that exempted tax credit recipients survived the other cases. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into winter-fuel-payment-c…

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…harge

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into winter-fuel-payment-c…

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Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into winter-fuel-payment-c…

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…harge # Conflicts: # policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dwp/is_benefit_cap_exempt_health_disability.py

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into winter-fuel-payment-c…

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Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into winter-fuel-payment-c…

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Cite issue #2371 for the gap between the net pay deduction and the mo…

ed0b799

…del's relief Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis and others added 12 commits October 20, 2026 19:45

Merge main and keep Pension Credit tax deductions before WFP charge

e72300c

Fix fiscal eligibility reads after Winter Fuel Payment tax split

2d0c8f7

Hold pre-cap Universal Credit in trading-loss comparison

f23c3d6

Test declared-reader containment independently of tax levels

862f893

Scale reader containment tolerance by perturbation and response

76108fa

Merge winter fuel payment charge prerequisite

57d2f5f

Merge #2066 at 76108fa before the programme-specific income refactor; retain main statutory paternity pay in HB earnings conflict resolutions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 23, 2026 16:56

Remove the build job's report from the repository root

20d873b

The report is a job artifact, not part of the change; the UK hub keeps a copy outside the repository. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 23, 2026

Count statutory pay in Income Support income #2595

Merged

vahid-ahmadi mentioned this pull request Oct 24, 2026

Start England childcare entitlements in the term after birthdays #2593

Merged

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Split total income into programme-specific concepts - #2620

Split total income into programme-specific concepts#2620
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