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Count war pensions and AFCS payments in Pension Credit income, less £10 a week - #2508

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Count war pensions and AFCS payments in Pension Credit income, less £10 a week#2508
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 19, 2026 •
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Part of #1954.

What was wrong

Pension Credit income counted none of these:

  • war disablement pensions;
  • war widow's or widower's pensions;
  • Armed Forces Compensation Scheme (AFCS) guaranteed income payments.

The law counts all three, less £10 a week. #1954's audit found AFCS payments were the largest omission by money in benefit units receiving Pension Credit.

The law

Read from legislation.gov.uk (revised text, /data.xml).

  • State Pension Credit Act 2002 s.15(1): "In this Act “income” means income of any of the following descriptions— ... (g) a war disablement pension or war widow's or widower's pension;"
  • SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(5) prescribes "(aa) a guaranteed income payment". Reg 15(1)(ab) excepts armed forces independence payment.
  • SPC Regs 2002 Sch IV para 1, applied by reg 17(7): "£10 of any of the following, namely— (a) a war disablement pension ...; (b) a war widow's or war widower's pension; ... (cc) a guaranteed income payment ...". Paras 2 to 4 disregard in full the amounts for constant attendance and exceptionally severe disablement, the mobility supplement and the art 23(2) supplementary pension.

Per payment, not per person. Para 1 does not say whether the £10 applies to each payment or once per person. Max ruled on 2026-10-19 that it applies to each payment. For that reading:

  • DWP's Decision Makers' Guide 85200 lists the "types of income [that] have the first £10 a week disregarded".
  • Income Support Regs 1987 Sch 9 para 16 uses the same words. Para 36 caps the total of the para 16 disregard and some others at £20. For para 16 alone, that cap bites only if each payment gets £10. SPC Sch IV has no such cap.

For the other reading, Sch IV para 11(3)(b) refers to the case where "£10 is disregarded in accordance with paragraph 1(a) to (f)".

Changes

  • pension_credit_war_pension_income (BenUnit): for the claimant and partner (is_claimant_or_partner), afcs and war_widows_pension each less the weekly disregard × 52, never below nil. An unused disregard does not pass to the other payment or to the other partner. It sits in the Pension Credit income list after working tax credit.
  • gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.war_pension_disregard: £10 a week from 6 October 2003.
  • war_widows_pension (added by Give War Widow's Pension its own CPI-uprated variable ahead of freezing BSP #2382) gets documentation and references (SPCA 2002 s.17(1); ITEPA 2003 s.639).
  • Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction keep disregarding these payments in full.
    • HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 29(1)(e)-(g) count these payments and Sch 5 para 1 disregards £10. But SSAA 1992 s.134(8) lets an authority disregard "the whole or part" of them under a local scheme.
    • The model's general routes have always left them out, which is the full local disregard; this PR keeps that and states it as a modelling assumption.
    • The savings-credit-only routes (HB (SPC) reg 27, and the CTR pensioner equivalent) take the Pension Credit assessment, which now counts these payments. Both remove pension_credit_war_pension_income from it, floored at nil.
      • For HB, HB/CTB Guidance Manual P2.576 allows this: an authority "may modify The Pension Service's calculation of the claimant's income when the LA has decided to apply a disregard to a war pension, greater than that applied by The Pension Service".
      • For CTR, the basis is consistency: its general route counts no war pension.

Data

  • afcs holds FRS benefit code 8, "Armed Forces Compensation Scheme" (formerly War Disablement Pension, including Guaranteed Income Payments; see afcs_reported).
    • A person with both a war disablement pension and a guaranteed income payment therefore gets one £10 on the sum, not £10 on each.
    • The data cannot separate the para 2 to 4 amounts.
    • Nor can it apply Sch IV para 1(cc): where a guaranteed income payment is abated below £10 by a pension or payment within AFCS Order 2005 art 31(1)(a) or (b), the unused part of the £10 comes off that pension or payment. DMG 85215 names an Armed Forces Pension Scheme pension and an Armed Forces Early Departure Scheme payment. This is not modelled.
  • war_widows_pension is zero in uk-data 1.58.0, which has no war_widows_pension_reported column; FRS code 9 still sits in bsp_reported. Split War Widow's Pension (FRS code 9) out of bsp_reported policyengine-uk-data#578 and Split War Widow's Pension (FRS code 9) out of bsp_reported microcosm#1222 move it. Until then the per-payment and per-person readings give identical dataset results.

Tests

  • pension_credit_war_pension_income.yaml: 14 cases for 2026 (SI 2026/148 art 29: standard minimum guarantee £238.00, Savings Credit threshold £208.07). 13 fail on main; Case 12, which checks the existing benefit totals from Give War Widow's Pension its own CPI-uprated variable ahead of freezing BSP #2382, passes on both. The cases cover:
    • payments above, below and at £10;
    • a war widow's pension;
    • one person with both payments (£10 off each);
    • each partner's own £10, with no transfer between payments or partners;
    • Savings Credit qualifying income;
    • a dependant's and a third adult's payments not counting;
    • armed forces independence payment and Bereavement Support Payment not counting;
    • a savings-credit-only claimant whose HB and CTR income leave the AFCS payment out (Case 14).
  • test_pension_credit_war_pension_properties.py (Hypothesis, derandomized): 5 properties, 72 s locally.
# Invariant Domain
1 Differential, extending #1952's, with the intended difference stated: where neither credit is due and the income floors do not bind, pension_credit_income − pension_credit_war_pension_income == housing_benefit_applicable_income + housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard. Single people and couples over State Pension age, with AFCS and war widow's pensions and, in some families, a carer. 278 of 588 points compared, 214 with counted war pension income.
2 0 ≤ counted ≤ gross payments of claimant and partner; counted equals the sum over each payment of max(0, payment − £520). as above
3 Guarantee Credit never rises with an AFCS payment, and is unchanged while the payment is at or below £10 a week. as above
4 Reassigning the same payments among the four slots (each partner's AFCS payment and war widow's pension) leaves Pension Credit income and Guarantee Credit unchanged: each payment keeps its own £10 wherever it sits. as above
5 Housing Benefit and CTR disregard war pensions in full on every route. With and without the payments, where neither run pays Guarantee Credit and both take the same route, HB and CTR applicable income change only by the change in Pension Credit paid. Aged 77+. 169 of 420 points compared, 7 of them savings-credit-only with a counted payment; Case 14 pins that route.

Impact

Source: CI's aggregate-impact check, a full microsimulation of each fiscal year on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91). It compares main 815f89c with this PR merged (report).

2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit spending −£15,209 −£16,348 −£15,924 −£23,708 −£24,373 −£25,057 −£25,754
  • Fewer than 10 survey households change in any year, so the check withholds the breakdowns.
  • Housing Benefit, CTR, tax receipts and poverty do not change.
  • War widow's pension is not yet separated in the data (FRS code 9 still sits in bsp_reported), so that part shows no effect until policyengine-uk-data#578 lands.

Axiom

axiom: rulespec-uk#390 queued (Extension 4: SPCA s.15(1)(g), reg 15(5)(aa) and Sch IV para 1; Sch IV needs ingesting first)

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_war_pension_income.yaml::Case 1, an AFCS payment above £10 a week counts less £10.
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_war_pension_income.yaml::Case 5, one person with an AFCS payment and a war widow's pension gets £10 off each.
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_pension_credit_war_pension_properties.py::test_pension_credit_and_housing_benefit_differ_only_by_war_pensions

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 19, 2026 15:37
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count war pensions and AFCS payments in Pension Credit income
4a5de76 
State Pension Credit Act 2002 s.15(1)(g) counts war disablement pensions
and war widow's or widower's pensions, and SPC Regs reg 15(5)(aa) counts
AFCS guaranteed income payments. Sch IV para 1 disregards £10 a week of
them. Pension Credit income counted none of them.

Add pension_credit_war_pension_income: the claimant's and partner's afcs
and war_widows_pension, each person's less the weekly disregard (a new
parameter, gov.dwp.pension_credit.income.war_pension_disregard), and put
it in the Pension Credit income list. Add war_widows_pension and
war_widows_pension_reported, counted next to bsp in the gross benefit,
HBAI and spending totals, so moving FRS code 9 out of bsp_reported keeps
those totals unchanged. Housing Benefit is not changed.

Add YAML cases from 2026-27 statutory rates (SI 2026/148) and Hypothesis
properties: the Pension Credit and Housing Benefit income differential,
bounds and closed form, Guarantee Credit monotonicity and moving amounts
between sources within a person.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Finish builder edits after review (checkpoint)
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 19, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 815f89cb7a against head 0ff89d9463, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit -£15,209 -£16,348 -£15,924 -£23,708 -£24,373 -£25,057 -£25,754
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government spending -£15,209 † -£16,348 † -£15,924 † -£23,708 † -£24,373 † -£25,057 † -£25,754 †
Government balance, each receipt once +£15,209 † +£16,348 † +£15,924 † +£23,708 † +£24,373 † +£25,057 † +£25,754 †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_spending -£15,209 † -£16,348 † -£15,924 † -£23,708 † -£24,373 † -£25,057 † -£25,754 †
household_benefits -£15,209 † -£16,348 † -£15,924 † -£23,708 † -£24,373 † -£25,057 † -£25,754 †
gov_balance +£15,209 † +£16,348 † +£15,924 † +£23,708 † +£24,373 † +£25,057 † +£25,754 †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income -£15,209 † -£16,348 † -£15,924 † -£23,708 † -£24,373 † -£25,057 † -£25,754 †
Household net income (HBAI definition) -£15,210 -£16,348 -£15,924 -£23,708 -£24,373 -£25,057 -£25,754

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000 +0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£0.00 † -£0.00 † -£0.00 † -£0.01 † -£0.01 † -£0.01 † -£0.01 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£70 +£105 +£135 +£0 0 -£0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp 0 0 -£0 0 0 0 -£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year -£452 -£454 -£455 +£0 0 +£0 +£0
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£0 -£0 -£0 0 0 0 -£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% 0 0 0 +£0 0 0 0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% -£0 0 -£0 0 0 0 -£0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp 0 0 -£0 0 +£0 0 +£0
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 -£0 +£0 0 0 -£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% 0 0 0 +£0 0 +£0 -£0
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£5,142 -£5,409 -£5,641 +£48,583 +£49,605 +£50,651 +£51,759

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 6 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
2026-27 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
2027-28 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
2028-29 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
2029-30 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
2030-31 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
2031-32 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; components the model counts twice; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 815f89cb7a uk 2.139.5 (files 89666f0e85a4), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 bdbfc93aa317 0d0426ee9e38 919.7s
head #2508 merged into main 0ff89d9463 uk 2.139.5 (files 36569c91ab3c), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 bdbfc93aa317 0d0426ee9e38 926.28s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £318.98bn £336.45bn £351.55bn £367.04bn £385.12bn £403.42bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.51bn £62.45bn £64.90bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £175.57bn £181.08bn £188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.49bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.50bn £127.12bn £128.28bn £130.21bn £134.05bn £138.02bn £142.08bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.06bn £7.04bn £7.11bn £7.23bn £7.37bn £7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.78bn £83.09bn £84.89bn £86.65bn £87.58bn £89.00bn £90.33bn
Housing Benefit £8.60bn £8.93bn £9.20bn £9.34bn £9.62bn £9.88bn £10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.24bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,477k 1,455k 1,457k 1,454k 1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,008k 6,593k 6,509k 6,491k 6,377k 6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,419k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,253k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,213k 3,226k 3,247k 3,263k 3,282k 3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 81k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.39bn £939.21bn £976.17bn £1,009.31bn £1,044.89bn £1,081.66bn £1,122.50bn
Government spending £536.61bn † £550.95bn † £557.29bn † £564.36bn † £572.91bn † £582.17bn † £591.33bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.78bn † £388.26bn † £418.88bn † £444.96bn † £471.97bn † £499.50bn † £531.17bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.52bn £942.34bn £979.30bn £1,012.44bn £1,048.02bn £1,084.79bn £1,125.63bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.63bn £548.43bn £570.57bn £592.62bn £617.00bn £643.70bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.34bn £514.51bn £540.08bn £561.53bn £583.34bn £607.46bn £633.81bn
gov_spending £536.61bn † £550.95bn † £557.29bn † £564.36bn † £572.91bn † £582.17bn † £591.33bn †
household_benefits £536.61bn † £550.95bn † £557.29bn † £564.36bn † £572.91bn † £582.17bn † £591.33bn †
gov_balance £365.91bn † £391.39bn † £422.01bn † £448.09bn † £475.10bn † £502.63bn † £534.30bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,887.41bn £1,945.59bn £2,017.37bn
Household net income £1,658.22bn † £1,706.81bn † £1,738.65bn † £1,772.83bn † £1,809.10bn † £1,850.82bn † £1,902.56bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.78bn £1,513.59bn £1,545.85bn £1,578.89bn £1,613.08bn £1,652.21bn £1,702.66bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 14.9% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.6% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 20.9% 20.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.5% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 31.8% 30.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.2% 31.6% 31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.4% 19.2% 20.0% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.2% 12.0% 12.2% 12.2% 12.3% 12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.3% 23.2% 23.3% 23.4% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9% 15.1% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.9% 14.3% 14.3% 14.2% 14.2% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.5% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 32.6% 31.3% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.3% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.6% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.3% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.3% 12.2% 12.3%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,051k 10,427k 10,848k 10,947k 11,078k 11,209k 11,217k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,560k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,864k 5,737k 6,070k 6,165k 6,237k 6,314k 6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,627k 1,549k 1,517k 1,529k 1,543k 1,560k 1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,540k 14,214k 14,692k 14,933k 15,150k 15,388k 15,522k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,767k 4,515k 4,643k 4,699k 4,756k 4,835k 4,896k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,277k 8,253k 8,666k 8,844k 8,993k 9,141k 9,203k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,496k 1,445k 1,382k 1,390k 1,402k 1,412k 1,424k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,759k 11,456k 11,529k 11,625k 11,706k 11,867k 11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,538k 3,515k 3,525k 3,546k 3,582k 3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,160k 6,366k 6,465k 6,537k 6,651k 6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,758k 1,648k 1,634k 1,623k 1,634k 1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,912k 14,719k 14,901k 15,009k 15,218k 15,281k 15,509k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,889k 4,715k 4,697k 4,720k 4,791k 4,799k 4,891k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,435k 8,497k 8,758k 8,884k 9,018k 9,074k 9,197k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,588k 1,506k 1,446k 1,406k 1,408k 1,408k 1,422k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3065 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,707 † £17,997 † £17,941 † £18,017 † £18,326 † £18,522 † £18,685 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,364 † £29,040 † £28,680 † £29,001 † £29,377 † £29,781 † £30,332 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,611 † £35,900 † £36,502 † £37,005 † £37,283 † £37,961 † £38,665 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,326 † £40,904 † £41,932 † £42,824 † £43,176 † £43,833 † £44,936 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,874 † £46,154 † £46,943 † £47,447 † £48,381 † £49,255 † £50,076 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,930 † £49,323 † £50,259 † £51,047 † £52,157 † £52,925 † £54,240 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,335 † £57,591 † £58,487 † £59,458 † £60,171 † £61,648 † £62,900 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,228 † £70,340 † £71,615 † £72,863 † £74,332 † £75,678 † £77,547 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,674 † £82,009 † £83,247 † £84,449 † £86,137 † £87,749 † £89,958 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,666 † £120,533 † £122,448 † £124,609 † £126,968 † £129,679 † £132,877 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.71bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.35bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.11bn £-4.20bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.96bn £-22.33bn £-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.46bn £12.80bn £13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.43bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-8.93bn £-9.14bn £-9.04bn £-9.09bn £-9.29bn £-9.54bn £-9.81bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.87bn £7.07bn £7.29bn £7.53bn £7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.54bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.11bn £-4.19bn £-4.27bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.77bn £13.12bn £13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.38bn £3.43bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £12.25bn £12.71bn £12.83bn £13.02bn £13.41bn £13.80bn £14.21bn

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 19, 2026
Merged
MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 19, 2026 16:27
@MaxGhenis @claude
Drop the war_widows_pension claim from the changelog; #2382 added it
22ddb9e 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Compare war pension income with HB only where neither credit is due
f8b8459 
With a savings-credit-only award, Housing Benefit takes the Secretary of
State's assessment plus the savings credit (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 27), so the
differential now excludes those points. Drop the assertion that every drawn
carer is paid a carer's benefit: since #1994, State Pension and other
overlapping benefits can reduce Carer's Allowance to nil.

On the derandomized draws the differential compares 278 of 588 points, 214
with counted war pension income above the disregard. All four properties pass
in 75 s.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Correct a YAML comment: Case 11 asserts the new variable, so it fails…
955329b 
… on main

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 19, 2026
Merged
Open
Open
MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 19, 2026 21:57
@MaxGhenis @claude
Keep the war widow's pension aggregate test outside the means tests
c1a6f3a 
test_war_widows_pension_counts_wherever_bsp_does (#2382) checked that adding
£5,000 of war widow's pension raises household_benefits, HBAI net income and
government spending by £5,000, as BSP does. Its widow was on Pension Credit,
and war widow's pension is now Pension Credit income (SPCA 2002 s.15(1)(g))
while BSP is not (reg 15(1)(n)), so her Pension Credit fell and the totals
rose by £520. Give her £40,000 of private pension, which keeps her out of
every means test, so the test again measures how the aggregates count the
payment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Keep war pensions out of savings-credit-only HB and CTR; review fixes
4c1cc37 
Independent review of #2508 found that the savings-credit-only routes of
Housing Benefit (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 27) and Council Tax Reduction take
pension_credit_income, which now counts war pensions less £10, while their
general routes count none. Under the model's assumption that authorities
disregard war pensions in full under SSAA 1992 s.134(8) (HB/CTB Guidance
Manual P2.576: an authority "may modify The Pension Service's calculation"
for a greater war pension disregard), both routes now remove
pension_credit_war_pension_income.

Also:
- YAML Case 14: a savings-credit-only claimant with an AFCS payment;
  HB and CTR income 13,954 - 1,040 + 302.616 = 13,216.616.
- Property 5: with and without the payments, HB and CTR income change only
  by the change in Pension Credit paid, on both routes. Property 3 now
  starts from nil private pension so Guarantee Credit is usually paid.
- Document that afcs sums AFCS payments and war disablement pensions (one
  £10 on the sum) and that Sch IV para 1(cc)'s abated-GIP rule is not
  modelled; quote the s.17(1) definition of war widow's pension fully.
- Drop three YAML comments that said a case passes on main; name
  guaranteed income payments in the changelog.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Floor the savings-credit-only war pension removal; avoid reg 7(4) in …
a1eef99 
…Case 14

From the delta review of #2508:
- Pension Credit income is net of tax on income it does not count (for
  example dividends), so it can be smaller than the war pension income it
  includes. Floor the difference at nil before adding the savings credit
  payable, in both the Housing Benefit and the Council Tax Reduction
  savings-credit-only routes.
- Case 14 now uses inputs whose amount B is whole pennies (private pension
  240 a week, no tax), so the model's unrounded savings credit (476.216)
  is the regulations' figure; the model does not apply reg 7(4) rounding.
- Para 1(cc) covers any pension or payment within AFCS Order 2005 art
  31(1)(a) or (b), not only an Armed Forces Pension Scheme pension.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into pension-credit-war-pensions
ba78c29 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026
Open
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 20, 2026 05:55
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 20, 2026

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Hand-off to the UK hub (session local_87c93ea5, 2026-10-20).

  • Head: ba78c29. That is the reviewed fixes at a1eef99 with origin/main 815f89c merged in; the PR's own files are unchanged by the merge.
  • Review: an independent Opus 5.5 review asked for changes at c1a6f3a and approved at 4c1cc37 and again at a1eef99. The main fix was keeping war pensions out of the Housing Benefit and CTR savings-credit-only routes. Full review: /Users/maxghenis/reviews/uk-pc-income-1954-2026-10-02/review/review_2508_opus.md.
  • CI: every check passes on ba78c29. The aggregate-impact check shows Pension Credit falling by £15k-£26k a year, with fewer than 10 survey households changing.
  • Depends on: nothing.
  • Decisions: d1730 is already ruled (a): the £10 comes off each payment, as implemented. It lands on gates.
  • Follow-ups: policyengine-uk-data#578 and microcosm#1222 split FRS code 9 into war_widows_pension. rulespec-uk#390 Extension 4 is posted.

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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 20, 2026
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026
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@juaristi22 juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026
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Merged via the queue into main with commit 8ac9d97 Oct 20, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the pension-credit-war-pensions branch October 20, 2026 10:46
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 20, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on its merge gates, from the owner session's hand-off. One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head ba78c29aca596c0a7e055f5a025a2462e6ece40c.

  • Review: an independent Opus 5.5 review asked for changes at c1a6f3a and approved at 4c1cc37 and again at a1eef99 (review_2508_opus.md). The head is a1eef99 merged with main 815f89c. One file, council_tax_reduction_applicable_income.py, is changed on both sides; the hub checked that the merge commit's tree equals git's automatic merge (no hand edits). Main's side is Exclude Child Benefit from pensioner Council Tax Reduction income #2470.
  • Impact: the aggregate-impact check at the head, against main 815f89c (clean): Pension Credit spending −£15k to −£26k a year, with fewer than 10 survey households changing.
  • Checks: every check passed at the head, and the merge queue re-tested against current main.
  • Decision: Max ruled d1730 = (a) on 2026-10-19: the £10 disregard comes off each payment, as implemented.

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MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 20, 2026
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Merge origin/main (c281c2e: #2508, #1913, #2518, #2516) into ctr-appl…
38a251c 
…icant-means-test
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 20, 2026
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