[MaxGhenis]

Based on main, now that #2019 has merged (1fac3a5); main is merged in. Part of #1954; fixes the Pension Credit part of #2370.

What was wrong

Statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay are earnings for Pension Credit, but pension_credit_earnings counted only employment and self-employment income. pension_credit_income still deducted the income tax and National Insurance the model charges on those payments. So a claimant's Pension Credit rose with the tax on pay that the means test never counted.

The law

Read from legislation.gov.uk (revised text, /data.xml).

• SPC Regs 2002 reg 17A(2): "“earnings” in the case of employment as an employed earner, means any remuneration or profit derived from that employment and includes— ... (h) statutory sick pay and statutory maternity pay payable by the employer under the 1992 Act; (i) statutory paternity pay payable under Part 12ZA of the 1992 Act;". Heads (ib), (ic), (id) and (j) add shared parental, parental bereavement, neonatal care and adoption pay.
• SPC Regs 2002 reg 15(1) excepts "(o) statutory sick pay; (p) statutory maternity pay; (q) ordinary statutory paternity pay ..." from the social security benefits counted as income. So each counts once, as earnings.

Changes

• New parameter gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.statutory_payments: statutory_sick_pay, statutory_maternity_pay, statutory_paternity_pay. The other reg 17A(2) payments have no variables; the description lists them.
• pension_credit_earnings counts the list with employment and self-employment income, each floored at nil as Count a loss on one source as nil in Pension Credit income and earnings #2259 does.
• Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's Sch VI disregard counts the payments in net employed earnings. Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's top-slice tax on earnings (pension_credit_income_tax_without_employment_income and pension_credit_income_tax_without_earnings) zeroes them together with employment income. The tax on statutory pay is therefore treated as tax payable on earnings (reg 17(10); d1424's reading). Both read one list, policyengine_uk.utils.pension_credit.employed_earnings_sources, and the labels now say employed earnings.
• earnings_sources is back to employment and self-employment income, with correct reference titles.
• Housing Benefit and CTR are not changed: they already count SSP and SMP, and Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay #2368 adds statutory paternity pay to both.
• No double count with wages. uk-data builds employment_income from FRS INEARNS and the statutory pay from SSPADJ and SMPADJ. The FRS 2024-25 methodology defines income from wages and salaries as gross pay "less ... any Statutory Sick Pay or Statutory Maternity Pay". This reads INEARNS as following that definition; the parameter tells users to leave statutory pay out of employment income.

After #2019 merged: the earnings-tax counterfactual

#2019's final rounds added test_pension_credit_tax_branch_reuse.py. It pins the two earnings-tax counterfactual branches to ("employment_income",) and ("employment_income", "self_employment_income"). With this PR, each branch also zeroes the three statutory payments. So both parametrizations failed CI on the merge with main (run 39567653308: shard 2 [pension_credit], shard 4 [household_net_income]). The keys follow the law, so the expectation is updated, not the code. Read from legislation.gov.uk:

• The pay is employed earnings. Reg 17A(2)(h) and (i) make statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay "earnings in the case of employment as an employed earner". Reg 15(1)(o) to (q) take them out of the prescribed benefits. SPCA 2002 s.15(1)(a) counts earnings as income.
• Its tax comes off as it is. Reg 17(10) disregards "any amount payable by way of tax" and NI "in the case of any income taken into account". Only "the earnings of self-employed earners" get the notional tax of reg 17(11).
• It nets the earnings before the disregard. Sch VI is disregarded "in calculating ... the claimant's earnings" (reg 17(9)), so it is capped at earnings net of that tax.

Under #2019's top-slice reading (d1424 (a)), the tax on employed earnings is the fall in income tax when nobody has employed earnings. Statutory pay is employed earnings, so both branches must zero it:

• Branch 1: if the pay stayed, its tax would count as tax on other income. The disregard would then be capped at net earnings that still include that tax (Cases 8 and 9).
• Branch 2: if the pay stayed, it would sit beneath self-employed profit. Part of its PAYE tax would then be swapped for reg 17(11)'s notional tax (Case 10).

Statutory pay is taxable (ITEPA 2003 s.660 Table A). The model taxes SSP and SMP; #2368 adds SPP.

• test_pension_credit_tax_branch_reuse.py now expects the employed-earnings keys in both parametrizations. Its fixture gives one non-dependant pensioner £500 of statutory sick pay, so the shared-branch and calculation-order tests run with the pay present.
• No model code changes in the merge.
• Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's other fixtures hold no statutory pay, so the extra keys zero inputs that are already nil. That covers the de-netted pension_credit_earnings_disregard.yaml, child_amount_tax_credit_award.yaml and tax_credits_pension_credit_passport.yaml, and its late-input, notional Class 2, passport and trading-loss modules. They pass unchanged (below).

Tests

• pension_credit_statutory_pay_earnings.yaml: 12 cases for 2026. Case 5, a dependant's pay not counting, passes on Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's head (d91b322); the others fail there.
  • Rates: SSP £123.25 a week (SSCBA 1992 s.157(1) as amended by SI 2026/148); SMP and SPP £194.32 (SI 2026/148 arts 9 and 10); standard minimum guarantee £238.00 and £363.25 (art 29).
  • Cases cover a single person's SSP (£5 disregard), a partner's SPP (£10), wages and SSP sharing one disregard, a couple's SSP, a dependant's SSP not counting, a carer's £20, and a younger partner's SMP.
  • Cases 8 to 11 are taxed and pin the top-slice tax: tax wholly on the pay (8), only the tax the pay causes (9), self-employed profit taxed beneath the pay (10), and a partner's pay costing the claimant the marriage allowance (11). With Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's tax module unchanged, Cases 8 to 10 fail.
  • Case 12: statutory sick pay is Savings Credit qualifying income.
• test_pension_credit_statutory_pay_properties.py (Hypothesis, derandomized): 3 properties, 36 s locally.

#	Invariant	Domain
1	Differential, extending #1952's: where neither credit is due and the income floors do not bind, pension_credit_income + pension_credit_earnings_disregard == housing_benefit_applicable_income + housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard. Each side adds back its own earnings disregard, since SPC Sch VI and HB (SPC) Sch 4 differ. Statutory paternity pay is not drawn until #2368 counts it in HB.	Single people and couples over State Pension age with wages, SSP and SMP and, in some families, a carer. 528 of 779 points compared, 460 with statutory pay.
2	Moving an amount between employment income and SSP or SMP of the same person leaves Pension Credit earnings, the disregard, Pension Credit income, income tax and NI unchanged. Moving it to SPP changes Pension Credit income only through income tax, which the model does not yet charge on SPP (#2368).	Couples may include a younger partner.
3	Guarantee Credit never rises with any statutory payment.	as in 1

• At 74b9d4a, stacked on Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 at d91b322: Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's own properties and loss tests (9) and its YAML files (pension_credit_earnings_disregard.yaml 33, pension_credit_earnings.yaml 8, pension_credit_income.yaml 10) passed.

• At 2cbd493, merged with main at 9d81a5d, run locally in the locked environment (uv sync --frozen --extra dev):

  • every YAML file under gov/dwp/pension_credit/: 299 passed;
  • the 33 other policy YAML files that mention pension_credit, including tax_credits_pension_credit_passport.yaml and housing_benefit_savings_credit_only.yaml: 460 passed;
  • 12 Python modules at -n 4: 58 passed. They are this PR's test_pension_credit_statutory_pay_properties.py, plus every module Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 added or changed: test_pension_credit_tax_branch_reuse.py, _earnings_disregard_properties, _late_inputs, _notional_class2, _child_amount_tax_credit_properties, _income_losses, test_tax_credits_pension_credit_passport_properties.py, test_trading_loss_properties.py, test_uc_non_dep_pension_credit.py, _prescribed_benefits_properties and _war_pension_properties;
  • ruff format --check .: clean.

  PR CI runs the full suites at this head.

Impact

On the earlier merge with main (base 1fac3a5, head 8379cd5), CI's aggregate-impact check on the Enhanced FRS 2024-25 found that no household's net income changes in any year from 2025-26 to 2031-32, and it flagged no moves. Since then, this push has merged later main (9d81a5d) and changed one test. This PR's own model changes are the same as in that run. The check re-runs against the new base and posts here.

Axiom

axiom: rulespec-uk#390 queued (Extension 5: reg 17A(2)(h)-(j) with reg 15(1)(o)-(r); reg 17A needs ingesting first)

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_statutory_pay_earnings.yaml::Case 1, a single pensioner's statutory sick pay is Pension Credit earnings.
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/pension_credit/pension_credit_statutory_pay_earnings.yaml::Case 3, the earnings disregard applies once to employment income and statutory sick pay together.
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_pension_credit_statutory_pay_properties.py::test_pension_credit_and_housing_benefit_assess_the_same_statutory_pay

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (session local_87c93ea5, 2026-10-20).

• Head: 74b9d4a, stacked on Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 (base pc-earnings-disregard at d91b322).
• Review: an independent Opus 5.5 review asked for changes at fc9ea01 and approved at 74b9d4a. Its two remaining nits are non-blocking: a variable name inherited from Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019, and the earnings list built in two places. Full review: /Users/maxghenis/reviews/uk-pc-income-1954-2026-10-02/review/review_2509_opus.md.
• CI: none runs while the base is pc-earnings-disregard. The repo deletes head branches on merge, so GitHub retargets this PR to main when Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 merges. Full CI and the aggregate-impact check then run. If main has moved under Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019, merge main in first.
• Depends on: Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019, with d1424 ruled (a), the top-slice reading this PR follows.
• Decisions: none of its own. It lands on gates after Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019.
• Follow-ups: Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay #2368 adds statutory paternity pay to Housing Benefit and CTR, and taxes it. rulespec-uk#390 Extension 5 is posted.

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub: closing and reopening to trigger PR CI against main now that #2019 has merged (1fac3a5); a base change alone doesn't run the pull_request workflows.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 9d81a5dfa8 against head d8b8fa7788, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 9d81a5dfa8	uk 2.146.2 (files 582dff2713e2), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	6a24b7ff580b	f210f83d5be4	1507.01s
head	#2509 merged into main d8b8fa7788	uk 2.146.2 (files 48d9c1401f25), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	6a24b7ff580b	f210f83d5be4	1544.69s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.81bn	£83.11bn	£84.93bn	£86.69bn	£87.61bn	£89.03bn	£90.35bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,092k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£363.15bn †	£388.79bn †	£419.62bn †	£445.77bn †	£473.51bn †	£501.23bn †	£532.93bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.31bn	£1,012.51bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.73bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.75bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
household_benefits	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
gov_balance	£366.28bn †	£391.92bn †	£422.75bn †	£448.90bn †	£476.64bn †	£504.36bn †	£536.06bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,657.86bn †	£1,706.28bn †	£1,737.91bn †	£1,772.02bn †	£1,808.10bn †	£1,849.73bn †	£1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.42bn	£1,513.06bn	£1,545.11bn	£1,578.08bn	£1,612.09bn	£1,651.12bn	£1,701.58bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.0%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.9%	22.2%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.1%	30.3%	30.9%	31.1%	31.7%	32.3%	32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.9%	15.0%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.9%	14.4%	14.7%	14.3%	14.3%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	21.9%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	31.6%	31.0%	31.1%	31.3%	31.6%	32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	12.8%	13.0%	12.7%	12.9%	13.2%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,056k	10,435k	10,856k	10,960k	11,091k	11,220k	11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,862k	5,735k	6,068k	6,164k	6,235k	6,314k	6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,663k	14,366k	14,907k	15,144k	15,491k	15,755k	15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,809k	4,556k	4,676k	4,719k	4,835k	4,939k	4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,333k	8,326k	8,775k	8,931k	9,122k	9,275k	9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,780k	11,464k	11,523k	11,660k	11,708k	11,832k	11,879k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,506k	3,524k	3,542k	3,554k	3,565k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,356k	6,464k	6,530k	6,636k	6,628k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,786k	1,766k	1,661k	1,673k	1,636k	1,643k	1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,110k	14,866k	14,956k	15,109k	15,280k	15,513k	15,696k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,948k	4,756k	4,684k	4,715k	4,771k	4,840k	4,916k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,531k	8,560k	8,793k	8,917k	9,054k	9,187k	9,257k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,631k	1,551k	1,479k	1,477k	1,455k	1,486k	1,523k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3066	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3095

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,700 †	£17,996 †	£17,934 †	£17,991 †	£18,328 †	£18,506 †	£18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,323 †	£29,102 †	£28,705 †	£28,983 †	£29,330 †	£29,734 †	£30,317 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,629 †	£35,807 †	£36,445 †	£37,019 †	£37,221 †	£37,811 †	£38,492 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,334 †	£40,803 †	£41,758 †	£42,693 †	£43,435 †	£44,025 †	£44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,861 †	£46,156 †	£47,079 †	£47,439 †	£48,027 †	£49,181 †	£50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,925 †	£49,329 †	£50,288 †	£51,174 †	£52,167 †	£52,953 †	£54,205 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,319 †	£57,568 †	£58,473 †	£59,423 †	£60,149 †	£61,621 †	£62,893 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,267 †	£70,356 †	£71,672 †	£72,810 †	£74,351 †	£75,797 †	£77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,648 †	£81,992 †	£83,192 †	£84,486 †	£86,056 †	£87,570 †	£90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,618 †	£120,489 †	£122,421 †	£124,552 †	£126,802 †	£129,073 †	£131,887 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.21bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.29bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.95bn	£-22.32bn	£-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub build job: merged main after #2019 and settled the earnings-tax counterfactual.

• Head: 2cbd493. This is a fast-forward from 74b9d4a: merge c9f1459 (main at 9d81a5d, no conflicts) plus one test commit.
• What failed: test_pension_credit_tax_branch_reuse.py, which Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 added after this PR forked, pinned the counterfactual keys to wages alone. It failed on CI run 39567653308 in both parametrizations: shard 2 [pension_credit] and shard 4 [household_net_income]. Shards 1 and 3 and the YAML suite passed.
• Law, read on legislation.gov.uk: SPC Regs reg 17A(2)(h) and (i) make the three statutory payments employed earnings. Reg 15(1)(o) to (q) exclude them as benefits. Reg 17(10) deducts the actual tax on income taken into account; only self-employed earnings get reg 17(11)'s notional tax. Sch VI applies to earnings net of that tax.
  • So under Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's top slice (d1424 (a)), both branches must zero statutory pay with wages. Otherwise the pay's tax is either counted as tax on other income or partly swapped for notional tax beneath self-employed profit.
  • The PR's keys are right, and the test expectation is updated to them. Model code is unchanged. The full reasoning is in the PR body section "After Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 merged".
• Test change: both parametrizations now expect the employed-earnings keys. The fixture gives one non-dependant pensioner £500 of SSP, so the shared-branch and calculation-order tests run with statutory pay present.
• Local tests at 2cbd493, in the locked environment:
  • gov/dwp/pension_credit YAML: 299 passed;
  • 33 other YAML files that mention Pension Credit: 460 passed;
  • this PR's property module plus every Python module Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 added or changed, 12 modules at -n 4: 58 passed;
  • ruff format --check: clean.
    Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's de-netted fixtures hold no statutory pay, so they are unaffected.
• Only in CI: the full Python suite (5 shards), the full YAML suite, and the aggregate-impact check. All were pending at hand-off.
• Impact: the earlier merge run (base 1fac3a5) showed no household net income change in any year. It re-runs on this head.
• Open: the hub's independent interaction review (reviews/uk2509/prompt-delta.md) is to run at 2cbd493. No decision of its own; Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay #2368 (SPP in HB, CTR and income tax) remains the follow-up. Not merged.

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) as d673387de at 12:12Z on its merge gates (handed to the hub on line 84). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head 2cbd4935edbfb948b5728d1bb6a11442e6471af8.

• Change: statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay count as Pension Credit earnings (SPC Regs 2002 reg 17A(2)(h)–(i); reg 15(1)(o)–(q)). After Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019 merged, the hub's build settled the earnings-tax counterfactuals: both remove statutory pay along with wages, because reg 17(10) deducts the actual tax and earnings are the top slice of income (d1424(a)). So Apply the Pension Credit earnings disregards (SPC Regs 2002 Sch VI) #2019's branch-reuse test expectation was updated; no model code changed.
• Reviews: Opus 5.5 approved 74b9d4a91; GPT-6.1 Sol delta review APPROVE at this exact head (~/reviews/uk-hub/reviews/uk2509/REVIEW_2509_DELTA2.md). It read the statute XML independently, verified Cases 8–10 by hand, and found the updated expectation still strict.
• Tests: 6 focused Python, 299 Pension Credit YAML; 16/16 checks. The merge queue re-tests against current main.
• Impact: no household net income change in 2025-26 to 2031-32; 84/84 counted-once checks pass.
• Order: landed ahead of Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066, which is delayed by a disk pause. Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066's continuation merges main and re-checks the Pension Credit helper reads. Treat income derived from capital as capital in the legacy means tests #1995 follows this PR.

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